#rillacuthbert

[jbuffyangel]

Hi Jen. So 4.20 numbers were down. Do you think there's cause for concern? Think LL/KC fans will claim responsibility for it?

No. I don’t. Not even in the slightest. First things first guys, the number one rule of ratings is: they do not tell us WHY people watch (or don’t watch) the show. They just tells us the numbers.

So a LL fan can’t scream at the top of their lungs “HA! Ratings are down! It’s because Laurel is dead!” Sorry folks. Maths don’t work that way. Listen I’d love to scream “It’s because of Olicity!” every time there’s a highly rated episode, but I can’t say that either. 

A dip in ratings for one episode truly doesn’t matter that much. What matters is if there’s a significant downward trend in the ratings and we won’t know that until S4 is over and @rillacuthbert works her stats magic. And by significant downward trend I’d be looking for at least a 20-30% drop.

That said, I do expect there to be a slight - moderate downward trend this season. Arrow is still one of the CW’s strongest performers, but the show is going into their fifth season. There is almost always a drop in ratings for an aging series for any number of reasons. Once you’ve hit the 100th episode you have officially aged y’all.

But is that cause for worry? NO. Can I just remind everybody that the CW renewed Reign? REIGN PEOPLE. The season average has been a 0.3/1.01 (X). That’s abysmal even by CW standards and it got RENEWED. The CW’s business model is bizarre and ratings are a piece of the puzzle, but not remotely the whole picture. How the CW makes money is anybody’s guess, but I’ve repeatedly said I believe it’s based on international sales, syndication and sales to Netflix or Amazon. That means the CW is focused on series longevity regardless of ratings.

So not only do they have longevity with Arrow, but the ratings are still one of the  networks’s top performers. They are second only to The Flash. Going into their FIFTH SEASON. That’s amazing. Believe me when I say that the CW is GLEEFUL over Arrow. . They couldn’t renew it fast enough. 

So while the LL fans are DESPERATE for Arrow’s ratings to take a nosedive now that their fav is gone, thereby proving that Laurel was the core of Arrow... I’m afraid they will never get their wish. First, I do not believe the ratings are going to take a nosedive. Second, even if they did take a nosedive there is absolutely no way to qualify why. We can toss any number of guesses, but there is not a single person who can say “YES WE KNOW.” Not even the CW. Ratings don’t tell us the why.

So now is the time to ignore the crazy math coming out of the LL fandom because, trust me, they will twist the numbers every which way to make their argument. Just sit back, relax, enjoy the rest of the season and wait for Jenna to give her accurate and impartial analysis on the ratings when the season is over. 

But no matter what the ratings are... Laurel will still be dead. The LL fandom can scream at the top of their lungs but it’s not going to change anything. It’s over. Simple as that.

[jbuffyangel]

What is with haters always trying to claim Arrow's ratings sick and are going down and all that crap? And they compare it to the Flash's ratings and Arrow's season 2 ratings but I feel like they are always wrong. Arrow has great ratings, has gone up in places over the seasons or at least held steady. And it always ranks high in the Twitter ratings. I don't get where all this Arrow's ratings sick crap comes from.

Because they do the maths wrong my wonderful Anon. Single best resource on Arrow ratings in this fandom is Jenna @rillacuthbert. Jenna knows her MATHS. She is a statistics wonder and does an excellent job of presenting a FAIR examination of Arrow’s ratings and trends. Check out her blog and shut out the haters. They don’t know what they are talking about.

[dettiot]

I know you are watching the West Wing for sorta the first time. Since you are a right thinking lady I assume you're shipping Josh and Donna. I think they are a) an underrate ship and b) have a lot of unexplored similarities with Olicity. Am I crazy (LIKELY) or do you see Olicity parallels too? Also, adulting sucks. Let's just get tipsy instead.

Yes, of course I’m shipping Donna and Josh.  There was no choice to make.  :-)

But I agree on both of your points.  Particularly b).  I think it’s the idea of Oliver and Felicity, like Donna and Josh, working together, being partners, knowing they can rely on each other and they have complementary skills.  Plus, there’s the sense of so much being on the line, lives being affected by what they’re doing.  So I totally see the similarities.

And yesss, tipsy yay!  Of course, I have to get up and be out the door by nine tomorrow to take a bus, but that’s still a while off.