#arrow ratings

[jbuffyangel]

Midseason Report Card: What Are The CW's Best & Worst Rated Shows?

Now that they’ve wrapped their fall runs, let’s see how each network’s shows are stacking up thus far for the 2018-19 season, turning our attention here to The CW.

Arrow is tied for second with Riverdale. That’s pretty damn impressive for a show in their seventh season IMHO.

[cogentranting]

Why do you think more of the audience Left during season 5? The ratings dropped more during this season than before plus the usual drop after a season. Some people say it's because of no Olicity and some say because of new people and some say it's because no Laurel. What is your thought?

Let me preface by saying my knowledge of ratings stuff is random information I’ve gleaned from all over the place so its reliability should be viewed with a certain amount of circumspection. 

I don’t think either Olicity or Laurel affected the ratings significantly. As regards Laurel, everything I’ve seen from outside sources (various news sites, etc) and from the behavior of the show itself tells me that Laurel has never been a popular character. Producers of a show typically have ways to gauge fan responses (at least after the fact) and they very steadily and consistently downgraded her role after season 1 ended. They replaced her as female lead, they killed her off, they replaced her as black Canary… it all seems to indicate that she did not have a strong following. And the way news sites talk about her seems to indicate the same. There are people who love her, certainly, but from what I can tell it’s a small dedicated group. (Her appearances as Black Siren this year seem to have been a successful test to see if fans are more interested in this version- the answers appears to be yes). As far as Olicity goes, thinks are a little bit weirder. I  know a lot of people were very upset by them not being together and I know people quit- but I don’t fully understand why because… it seemed clear to me from the start that they always fully intended to get Olicity back together. From where I stood, it never bore the hallmarks of a ‘we’re going in a different direction’ plot line it was always a ‘we’re slowing this down’ plot line. So quitting because of it, struck me as odd. 

Regardless, here’s the bigger reason why I don’t think either element truly mattered: quitting a show because a ship isn’t together or quitting because of a character death are fandom reactions, large ratings drops have more to do with general audience. From my experience, most people don’t quit shows because of these things. Especially not temporary breakups. I’m sure both things made some people quit. But not a large enough number to affect ratings. 

So why DID the ratings fluctuate? Could be general show fatigue (Arrow’s a veteran show now, with five seasons), could be the tone going darker again. But from what I’ve heard, I think its a general decline in viewing tv in the way that ratings measure. Less people watching live or through cable providers. That’s the general trend in tv and Arrow is going to be particularly susceptible because of its audience demographics (superhero show skewing younger and being apart of the geek culture which tends to be relatively tech savvy). 

Last I heard, while Arrow’s rating did go down, the online streaming went up to compensate. And last year Arrow was one of only two network shows to not have its rating drop. So it’s more about viewers changing where they watch, than it is people quitting the show. And lucky for us, the CW is the network that is very attuned to the fact that more and more people are watching tv online and takes that into consideration (which is why CW regularly renews shows that look like they have terrible ratings in comparison to other networks). Most of this information about how Arrow’s ratings have changed and why it’s not a problem I got straight from Marc Guggenheim. The post is here. 

So… yeah. From my understanding, Arrow’s rating aren’t having any sort of trouble. 

[jbuffyangel]

Arrow Moves To Thursdays

Woke up to this article today and my TL looked like:

Arrow is moving to Thursday nights at 9 pm next fall for their sixth season. Reactions varied from chill to... not. Do I think this is a bad thing? No, I don’t. 

Allow me to preface this post by saying this: I’ve been talking about Arrow’s ratings and The CW network since I started this blog. Long before there was ever a ratings drop, my opinion was that The CW has a different business model than the other networks. If you cannot accept that The CW’s profitability is not based on live ratings, then this is not the blog for you. You don’t have to take my word for it. Stephen Amell confirmed it at HVFF Chicago. Mark Pedowitz has spoken about it.  I’ve done my research on this folks. They are structured differently than the Big Four. It’s just facts. (X) 

Yes, I was surprised by the move mostly because I had grown complacent about Arrow on Wednesday night. Wasn’t expecting it. I am no expert, but I’m happy to share my thoughts. I’ll talk about what I like about the move. Then we’ll shift to concerns.

What I Like

The 9 pm slot

Praise Jesus! We are on at a later time. THIS IS FABULOUS. Arrow has always been a darker and grittier show, especially when you compare it to The Flash and Supergirl. A 9 pm slot loosens the grip Broadcasting Standards and Practices has on the show. It can be more violent and sexier simply because the kiddos go to bed. I sincerely hope Arrow is able to push the envelope more, even if it’s ever so slightly.

Supernatural Pairing

I do not watch Supernatural, but I am THRILLED Arrow was paired with it. These shows were paired before (2015 Arrow S4/Supernatural S11) and I believe it was successful. Supernatural and Arrow have very similar demographics, so they’ve always seemed like a natural fit to me.

Honestly, how The CW pairs their shows has always been quite a head scratcher to me. Arrow and Frequency? HUH? The pairings for next year’s fall line up feel the most logical in years. The only one I’m really side eyeing is Valor after Supergirl (Really?). All the other show pairings feel similar in demographic and content, which just makes more sense to me if you are trying to maintain/build on audiences.

Supernatural is a strong show. It’s been on 12 years. It’s moved 8 times. I think if God invented an 8th day and The CW moved it there but didn’t tell a soul, the Supernatural fans would find it. This fandom is as loyal as they get. Their ratings have held pretty steady over the course of 12 seasons, which in of itself is impressive. A move is always tough on any television show, simply because your audience needs to follow it to the new night. So, I am extremely happy Arrow’s lead in is an anchor show for the network, who has already proven themselves on Thursday nights, and comes with a built in audience that is similar to Arrow’s.

Thursday Night

This is primarily for selfish reasons. I teach faith formation on Wednesday nights, but I am wide open on Thursdays. So, Arrow on Thursdays just works better for my schedule. lol I can live tweet more.

The Concerns

This Is Us

Yes, I am well aware that This Is Us is moving to Thursdays at 9 pm. This seemed to be the primary concern. That the live ratings mammoth that is This Is Us will send Arrow into a ratings death spiral and it will get canceled. Sigh. No. Just... no. 

Name one show on The CW that is in the ballpark of This Is Us numbers? Name one show on The CW that is in the live ratings ballpark of any show that airs on the Big Four? See, this is where this whole “How in holy Moses is The CW profitable?” question really starts to matter. It doesn’t matter what show The CW puts in that time slot. They’ll all get creamed. lol The CW isn’t concerned about Arrow going head to head with This Is Us. They don’t operate on a mano e mano strategy for live ratings... because they lose.

This Is Us has to prove successful on Thursday. There can be a tendency for hit pilot shows to suffer a sophomore slump in ratings. This Is Us is moving to the toughest night on television. It has the break to contend with too when NBC starts airing football. I’m not really worried about any of this. I think This Is Us will do great and kick serious ass. I’m expecting every show that goes up against it will take a live ratings hit.

Is This Is Us going to take enough of Arrow’s viewers to send it into some ratings death spiral so The CW is forced to cancel because it’s become abysmally unprofitable? Doubtful.

I do think the shows target different demos as Mark Pedowitz said. Now before you start screaming at me, “I WATCH THIS IS US AND ARROW” that’s great. So do I. I love them both. Except, I’m not a Nielson family so it doesn’t really matter that I watch both. 

The CW’s demographic is primarily female. The reasons why Arrow and The Flash were so appealing to to The CW was because it allowed them to branch into the other half of the population more - the male demo. That’s who The CW needed to target for their market to grow. Now, before you start screaming at me, “WOMEN WATCH ARROW AND MEN WATCH THIS IS US” yes thank you. I am aware.  I am quite sure This Is Us will take some of Arrow’s audience, but this is not new territory for me. Blindspot was up against Arrow this year. It had to lose some audience to Blindspot given how similar the demos are. I’m not certain the demos are as different as Pedowitz claims, but he’s probably got numbers I don’t. The question is how much will This Is Us take? That is the X factor. I don’t have male/female demographics on either show, so how the shift all shakes out is unknowable.  Am I worried? NO.

As I discussed in my most recent ratings post, I don’t know what the live ratings/profitability ratio is for The CW but even with a 30% drop in ratings Arrow is nowhere near their danger zone. The Originals is averaging a .30. It’s going into Season 5. Reign was at the same average when it was renewed for a fourth and final season. We've got a long ways to go. Arrow is still the #4 performer for the network.

The CW is focused on streaming. Netflix kids. That's where they make their money. The more seasons they have to sell to Netflix the more money they get to make. This includes complete series that viewers can binge start to finish. They also want their series to hit 88-100 episodes. They aren't trying to make money off the live broadcast run. They are focused on syndication deals. Arrow has a syndication deal with TNT. This all means The CW is focused on LONGEVITY.

Even if This Is Us sends Arrow into another ratings dive – I don’t think it goes anywhere. Stephen Amell is signed for 7 seasons. I feel confident we’re going 7 folks. Whether or not we go longer remains to be seen, but I think that has a lot more to do with Stephen Amell than it does with This Is Us. If Arrow ends in S7, I'm not remotely prepared to call that a series failure. Nor should you.

The CW is trying to kill Arrow

There seems to be a concern that The CW is trying to kill Arrow by moving it to Thursday and putting it up against This Is Us. 

Thursday is not the night shows go to die. That would be Friday. (Jen pats Blindspot). Although, even that mentality is starting to change. I think The CW would rather move a low rated show to Friday, especially if it has a loyal fanbase and strong social media presence, instead of cancel it. Friday keeps many shows alive, which means more streaming opportunities!

I guess the thinking on this one is because Arrow suffered a 30% drop The CW wants to cancel it and this is how they push it out. Again, I disagree. This is The CW not Fox. They try to keep series going, not intentionally torpedo them. 

Also, Marc confirmed that their streaming is UP. So, it’s possible whatever loss Arrow is suffering in live they are making it up in streaming. The audience is just shifting. We don't have any specific numbers, but for all we know, this could be a wash. My bet is The CW is nowhere near as unhappy with Arrow's numbers as people presume they are. Especially, if their numbers are up in the medium The CW is TARGETING.

Thursday

So why is Arrow getting moved off its comfortable Wednesday night show to one of the toughest nights in TV?

The Vampire Diaries was The CW's Thursday solid 8 pm performer for years. They've always struggled to find a solid 9 pm. Nikita, The Secret Circle, Beauty and the Beast, Reign, The Originals, Riverdale – none of them cut it. Then once TVD moved to Fridays, Legends of Tomorrow failed to gain traction in TVD's old spot.  You know what's moved back and forth to Thursdays a lot over the years? SUPERNATURAL. Something I noticed - each one of these failed Thursday night shows were pretty buzzy their first season. Arrow generates buzz.

Look guys, they had to put something there. The CW doesn't have a lot of new shows this season which means one of the returning series has to move to fill up the slots. Supernatural proved successful this year on Thursdays. So, if you look at the board – Arrow makes the most sense to pair with it. Also, after 5 seasons, Arrow is still one of their strongest performing series (#4 ain't bad). I think The CW put two of the longest running series, with a loyal fan base, to a night where they've been looking for two solid performers for awhile.

I also don't think WHEN The CW schedules their shows matters as much as other networks because, you guessed it, streaming.

That said, Arrow did suffer a 30% drop this year. That's not insignificant. Meanwhile, Supernatural had a minimal drop. Maybe the time has come for Arrow to stop being the lead in series and get a little support. I'm okay with that. Its certainly carried their own weight.

Why not just put Supernatural on Wednesday like they did last year? Well, that still leaves Thursday as wildly problematic, but maybe the answer is Fox? Fox went with soapier programming this year on Wednesday with Empire and Star. So, I think The CW answered with Riverdale and The Dynasty reboot. That’s that's just a guess though. I also think they wanted a new night for Riverdale. They seem invested in that series, the network just made an Archie comics deal, and probably wanted to find a more successful night for it than Thursday. Supergirl is a solid Monday performer. The Flash/LOT pairing is working great on Tuesday. That leaves Wednesday. And... Arrow suffered a drop. The door was open.

Supernatural makes a bad lead in

Ehh... I just disagree with this. 12 years is a long time and I don't have enough knowledge about Supernatural. I certainly understand if fans prefer Supernatural at 9 pm, but I think it has switched between 8 and 9 just as much as it has moved nights. I think Riverdale was sighted as this example. Honestly, I think that has more to do with my previous complaint about The CW's penchant for terrible pairing. What on earth do Riverdale and Supernatural have in common? I’m not surprised the audience didn’t carry over. I don't lay the blame at Supernatural's door. I stand by my positives for Supernatural being the lead in.

The Crossover

This move breaks up the crossover. Honestly, I don’t think a network can plan their entire schedule around one episode a year. Also, I think the fanbases for the DC shows are pretty loyal. They’ll follow the crossover conclusion to Arrow on Thursday night. I don’t see a day drastically changing numbers, but I guess we’ll see. Even still, one episode a season does not make.

I'm sure I've missed other concerns, but I took my best shot. My advice would be to stop worrying about Arrow's cancellation and just enjoy the show - no matter what night it is on.

[rillacuthbert]

Arrow S5 Ratings: The Viewership Apocalypse

My level of obsessive compulsive nerd is that I continue to work on my Arrow ratings math project despite that fact that I only “meh watched” six episodes this season. I should be working on my dissertation or my revise and resubmit pile in my spare time but this remains way more fun. Plus after my Season 4 Model worked so well I had to see if I could duplicate it for Season 5. 

Being right remains my heroin. #CapricornProblems

Arrow Season Five: The Beginning of the End

First, let’s review the Arrow S5 average ratings & demo + adjusted ratings & demo change since S4 season.  

Everyone knows that Arrow ratings AND CW ratings have declined sharply this season overall (http://www.vulture.com/2017/05/2016-2017-tv-season-in-five-really-depressing-charts.html). This article and the CW chart in here are helpful to center the conversation but I have critiques. First, no fair comparison of ratings decline over last season can include Supergirl. Comparing ratings from CBS to CW is not Apples to Oranges it is Apples to Volkswagens. Thus I removed Supergirl from my chart. Second, for change over time comparisons the number of viewers is mathematically preferable to the demo.

Math Segway: the demo is already a fraction so comparing percentages of fractions can lead to over/under predictability (Type One and Type Two Error) especially when your base fraction is an especially low number….like the demo from most CW shows.

The 2016-2017 CW ratings decline season average (thus far since some shows are still wrapping) is -14.7 with The Vampire Diaries and -17.6 without The Vampire Diaries.

The overall network decline of live viewers is steep. The shows hit the hardest are the limited run shows and the mid-season replacement shows (The 100, Reign, iZombie, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) and Arrow.  On the average, CW shows that started in the Fall only had a -13.6% decline in viewership over last season while the mid-season replacement shows declined -22%. While CW shows that had limited run seasons declined -18.7 while full run season shows declined -14.2. 

Arrow & Crazy Ex-GF are CW’s only show returning for next season that are not within one standard deviation of that -13.6% Fall average. And Crazy Ex-GF is already a limited run show. Arrow is the CW’s only full run show to have their ratings fall this hard. Arrow’s steep rating decline is far closer to the decline for limited run shows. That ain’t good. At all!

The benchmark I have used for Arrow’s season performances is the % viewership decline or growth (the rate of change) for each season compared to the average of the last two long run CW drama (Supernatural & Vampire Diaries) at the same point in their run. This chart shows you how much of the audience they lost from the prior season.

Arrow viewership was on par or better at the same point in Seasons 2 & 3. For Season 4, Supernatural & Vampire Diaries averaged a 0% decline and Arrow was about -10% off that average of the viewership decline. For Season 5, Supernatural & Vampire Diaries averaged a -15.9% decline. If Arrow had followed that trend they would have averaged about 2.09M viewers for Season 5. Instead Arrow’s 1.75M viewer average was a -29.7% decline from Season 4 and an almost -14% off that anticipated average. The Arrow decline are getting substantially more noted than prior CW shows at the same point in their run. The Season 6 average decline for Supernatural & Vampire Diaries was -23.5%. If, and it is a big if, Arrow follows that pattern they can expect to hit somewhere in the range of 1.34M viewers next season.

I got into a Twitter spat this past week with a stan who insists this decline is a-okay and the CW totally expected it because the overall trend in declining live viewing. And yes! Fewer people are watching live now. But the DVR, iTunes, Netflix, the CW ap, and illegal downloads were not ALL invented this season. The Arrow S5 ratings decline is above and beyond this season’s network average and the anticipated decline of prior CW S5 shows. The Thursday night move to 9PM BEHIND a show that is entering a 13th season with a lower average rating and a lower average demo is a panic move. Moving the air date/time is a network shakeup. It is not as serious a network shakeup as reducing the episode order or rotating out showrunners but the writing on the wall seems pretty clear here.

I’m not trying to use math to tell you why people DO or DON’T watch or gage the quality of Arrow Season 5. That’s not how math works. I’m here to tell you that viewers tuned out in mass. And it did not go unnoticed by the CW brass.

Season Four to Season Five Viewer Analysis: The Purge

Since S5 of Arrow had such a notable decline in viewership I was curious if I could parse out where the trigger point for viewer departure occurred. In my academic field (higher education) we have a concept called “summer melt” which is the number of high school graduates who report they plan to go to college next year but don’t actually enroll in the fall. For a host of reasons, these students “melt” before enrolling in college. I was curious if I could parse out S5 Arrow’s viewership declines, so I started looking for “summer melt.”

I averaged the final 6 episodes of Seasons 3 and Season 4 and compared it to an average of the first 6 episodes of Season 4 and Season 5, respectively to calculate Arrow’s summer melt. Comparatively, Season 4 lost -9.7% of the audience from S3 and only 1.1% of that viewership loss was from “summer melt.” The bulk of viewers who stopped watching Arrow from S3 to S4 did so DURING Season 4.

The hiatus before S5 Arrow lost 14.4% of viewers. That is 310K viewers who stopped watching Arrow before S5 even started. Their viewership loss will be attributed in the S5 -29.7% viewership loss but they did not even return for S5, so truly their departure should be attributed to S4. In fact, those 310K “summer melt” viewers represent an estimated 45% of ALL lost Arrow S5 viewers with 55% of viewership loss coming during S5.

From that beginning of S4 (first six episode average) and the end of S5 (last six episode average) Arrow lost about one million viewers. I made this chart to demonstrate which point those one million viewers left the show.

Again, there is no trying to parse quality or tell you what about Season 4 or Season 5 drove viewers away here. That is for viewers, critics, and the CW to speculate over. Math can’t help you there.

Arrow S5 Predictor Model: Worked Again!

I noted this in the Fall (http://rillacuthbert.tumblr.com/post/151450182766/arrow-s5-ratings-models) but to recap, I built two S5 models to test which is preferred for aggregate rate of change ratings prediction. The 5x01 rating was entered in to the models to generate the predictions for the subsequent episodes and season average for both models. The Oliver Model is based on ratings rate of change for S1-S4 and The Felicity Model is based on the ratings rate of change for S1-S4 to episode 7 and then S3-S4 from episode 8-23. The hypothesis being tested here is if the in season, post-crossover ratings bounce is sustainable and predictable. 

The final result is that The Oliver Model is statistically significant predictor of Arrow S5 ratings and The Felicity Model is not. The takeaways?

The value of the post-crossover ratings bounce has limited impact on the season average rating thus The Oliver model is superior to The Felicity Model  

That for two consecutive seasons a statistical model correctly predicted Arrow’s average rating

That suggest my original hypothesis about Arrow viewing remains true: Within a single season, viewership rises and falls across a predictable trend based on prior viewership in part because TV watching is cyclical and seasonal based on the counterfactual of what else is airing.

You can see this in the table below that shows the highest and lowest Arrow ratings by episode number average. I did separate averages one for the full five seasons and one for S3-S5 (again to measure crossover impact). I bolded the episodes that appear in both average.

The highest rated Arrow episodes each season tend to be the premiere and the episodes around the crossover. The lowest rated Arrow episodes each season are the episodes in the final third of the season. If you plot the episode averages for the full five seasons and for S5-S3 you can see clear viewership patterns emerge.

This again suggest that viewership is cyclical over the course of the season and rarely driven by the plot of an individual episode.  Beyond the crossover, almost never can you say a plot point increased or decreased Arrows ratings. These viewership trends are predictable and observable. Viewers are far less likely to watch episodes 19 or 22 live across every season regardless of what plot or storyline is in that episode. 

IF SOMEONE TELLS YOU THAT A SHIP OR A GUEST STAR OR A COMIC BOOK CHARACTER OR THE TIDES OF THE MOON ARE WHY AN EPISODE DID OR DID NOT GET A GOOD RATING THEY ARE MAKING SHIT UP.

They will continue to do so. And it will continue to annoy the piss out of me.

I have another ratings post on the back burner about applying the Arrow ratings model to other CW shows and networks, what I found out, and what it means for modeling Arrow Season 6 but that is for another day.

[jbuffyangel]

This Is Us Is Moving Back to Tuesdays

NBC has reversed its decision to move the hit This Is Us to Thursday nights, meaning the show is back to Tuesdays at 9 p.m.

Heads up for any of those worried about Arrow going up against This Is Us next season... This Is Us is staying put on Tuesday. I feel like maybe NBC finally did the math and realized they just put their smash hit right in the middle of Thursday night football. Smeh. Whatever. This Is Us wasn’t much of a concern for me, but I’m much happier my two fave shows are airing on different nights. My fall tv schedule is shaping up nicely! lol

Arrow will be up against The Orville, Will & Grace/Great News, Mom/Life In Pieces (and Thurs. Football through Oct. 26th). 

And... The CW will still remain focused on streaming.

[jbuffyangel]

Hey Jen, you trully are a rare gem for any fandom worthy to have you! Beyond happy you're part of the Olicity fandom! Only one thing I would like you to address, esp given your knowledge of TV and how the business works. So, what is your view on ratings for Arrow Season 5? The decline in ratings goes ofc accross shows and channels as a general trend nowadays. But specifically how do you feel about Arrow ratings this year? TY!

What a sweet thing to say. I am but one among many, but you are so incredibly kind. Thank you. Hope you don’t mind that I’m publishing this ask because I always like ratings questions. I think they are fun. Yes. I am weird. I don’t know if it’s knowledge. It’s more a weird obsession combined with some (hopefully) educated guesses. (Some of this will be a repeat for those who’ve read my thoughts on ratings before).

Stumbled on this article today. Vulture always takes a look at returning/aging dramas and writes an article on rating trends every year. It’s a good read. The take away is it’s been a rough year for everyone. Most returning/aging dramas saw a significant drop in their live ratings. This was The CW:

31% drop is… well… ouch. 

I agree with Vulture. I don’t know a network executive that would be happy with any of these drops because they like money. Loss of revenue is not good. Networks ain’t never gonna be a fan of that. A live ratings decrease = a loss of ad based revenue. 

But am I worried about Arrow? NOPE. The single most important question any fan of a television show that airs on The CW should ask is…

How in sweet holy heaven does The CW make money?

This article just published ratings losses, so everything looks equal across the board. However, if you compare ratings for The CW versus the Big Four (NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox) they aren’t even in the same ballpark. This is David versus Goliath. So, if television is all about live ratings - how does The CW even freaking exist? They are trounced on a nightly basis by all the other networks. I mean look at these numbers of the Top 10. My kingdom for a CW show to get these kind of numbers. lol

The answer is simple - The CW has a differentbusiness model than the Big Four. IT ALWAYS HAS. Otherwise it couldn’t compete.The CW business structure is not based on live ratings. That is not how thesetelevision shows make the majority of their money. Coke and McDonalds willalways want to air commercials on Greys Anatomy versus Arrow because it hastriple the freaking audience. They might have to pay more for Greys than Arrow,but ya know, it’s Coke so they can afford it. 

I’m not saying The CW doesn’t have a target market that appeals to advertisers. They do. Live ratings do matter to some degree, but that degree is 5% of Arrow’s actual value. Or at least that’s the number Stephen Amell offered at HVFF Chicago. Stephen confirmed what I’ve always believed about Arrow and The CW and what I’ve been writing about for years.

A 30% drop in the 5% overall value of a product is nothing to get overly worked up about. I’m sorry folks. It’s just not. A network is always going to want more money. They want Arrow to have a 0.9 and 2.5 million viewers every year until it goes off air. They aren’t running a charity here. 

The CW doesn’t want a 30% drop, but they aren’t canceling Arrow because of it. Especially if Arrow has remained profitable in other areas.

So, how does The CW make money? Well… some of this is research and some of this is guessing, but I think their business structure is primarily focused on two things 1) International sales 2) Streaming services 

I have nothing on the international sales, other than to guess that CW shows are popular overseas and that’s one way the network makes some money on the front end. For me, this really comes down to streaming. The CW demographic watches TV differently. I think the network came to that realization sooner than the Big Four simply because they had to in order to make money. The Big Four are catching on though too. 

So, streaming applications like the CW app or Netflix are extemely important. This is an informative article about the deal The CW made with Netflix and the collapse of their other agreement with Hulu.  Keep in mind that Netflix now gets CW shows eight days after the season is complete. So, given the target demographic (and the lack of commercials on Netflix) it would not surprise me if some of the 30% drop is attributed to viewers simply waiting until full seasons of The Flash or Arrow come out so they can binge it. The concern what this eight day deal would do to live ratings is highlighted in the article. 

Five year shows typically do not see growth, especially on The CW. The more realistic goal I believe for returning series 5+ years is to remain flat or bleed off slowly as a series ages. Sure, out of the four DC shows Arrow had the lowest ratings this year. It is also the oldest out of the four. I do think audiences can wain over time. 

However, if this is merely a transfer of audience, and not a loss of audience, then it could be a net wash overall. Here’s the kicker - Netflix does not publish any ratings information. They publish what their most popular shows are, but that is not the same thing. (Btw Arrow is always on their popular show lists). 

Here’s the other thing - Arrow’s ratings are nowhere near the red zone for The CW even with a 30% drop. It’s important to note that there are plenty of shows on the CW who have ratings far lower than Arrow and were renewed. We need to be asking ourselves why? WHY does The CW renew most of their returning series?

First - low ratings for The CW versus low ratings for the Big Four are not the same thing. I don’t know the ratio for ratings & profitability for the CW, but there’s plenty of shows I thought were tanking that limped their way to second, third and even fourth seasons.

I think the answer again is streaming services. What Netflix is interested in is completed series. They want a show they can package from start to finish so the 18-34 demo can binge it. The networks want people to watch previous seasons and then shift to the currently airing season. This is why I believe shows like The Vampire Diaries, The Originals, Reign and Beauty and the Beast all received renewals when their live ratings were not in tip top shape. The CW wants completed series they can package and ship off to Netflix. This is how they make their money on the back end.

This is actually one of the things I like best about The CW. If a series has a reasonably decent ratings the first season (and especially if there is a social media response) then we stand a good chance of getting another season. The CW allows series to find their footing and come to a conclusion because of their business model. The Big Four are still focused on live ratings numbers because, despite the shift in thinking, I believe most of their profitability is generated from those ad buys. I am always far more nervous for one of my low rated shows if it airs on CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox than I am if it airs on The CW.

That’s not to say a show is not in risk of cancellation on The CW. If you have low ratings in the first season, and by low I mean low for The CW, then no - you probably aren’t not coming back for a round 2. (Here’s looking at you Frequency). But every television show is different. So it all depends.

Yes, Arrow took a 30% hit. It is still the #4 show on the network. Not too shabby after five years and, just looking at the shows that come before it, I have to believe it’s cheaper to produce based on the CGI budget ALONE.

I know people want to point to the live ratings as evidence that the plotlines they are unhappy with were indeed terrible decisions. And sure… maybe it means that, but I don’t know how we quantify that. Ratings don’t tell us why people watch. Nor do I need ratings to support my opinions on storylines either way. If I don’t like something - I don’t like it. If I do… well… I do. Whether or not the Nielson company shows the rest of the viewing audience agreeing with me doesn’t really sway me either way. I have adored series that Nielson couldn’t find with two flashlights and a map and couldn’t stand series that were in the Top 10 every week. TV is subjective like any other art form. 

And I cannot emphasize enough that the Nielson rating system is absolutely and unequivocally archaic. It needs to change, like yesterday. When that happens who knows?  

Are the ratings evidence regarding poorly received or successful storylines? Maybe? Not sure on that piece. There’s a lot of factors that go into Nielson ratings too. I think what people are hoping for is the decrease in live ratings will mean Olicity won’t break up again or be distant or have storylines like Baby Mama. That the writers will use the numbers to make plotline decisions.

Ummm… yeah I don’t know guys. I really don’t. Arrow knew going into the second season Oliver would choose Felicity. They knew going into the third season Olicity would leave town together. Arrow knew going into the fourth season they were going to break Olicity up. Ratings didn’t break Olicity up (or save them from it) anymore than it will get them back together. Arrow knew going into the fifth season that Olicity will get back together. Ratings didn’t speed up that conclusion any sooner because it was the year long arc.

I’m not sure how much ratings effect actual storytelling decisions. To be honest, I don’t think they impact the current season all that much simply because Arrow is filming so far in advance. Once they pick a road my friends they have to go down it. This is like the rudder on the Titanic. It doesn’t corner worth a damn. For better or for worse.

How will this impact Season 6? Err… not sure. I don’t want to completely discount the live ratings because it’s numbers. It’s some math the network and EPs can use gauge some of the audience’s response. They are trying to sell a product here. Audience response does matter. It’s just… I don’t think the live ratings have the level of impact we think they do. There’s a whole bunch of numbers we don’t have access to. 5% is not going to determine storylines in their entirety. There’s many other factors at play and some of them are simply writing choices.

Arrow is going to do what Arrow is going to do. There will be storylines I love. There will be storylines I hate. That’s just Arrow for me. Olicity will always face drama because it’s a dramatic television show. Ratings aren’t going to guarantee some perfect season in which we get everything we want. Ratings aren’t going to stop mistakes from happening. That’s not how writing works. There is no perfect season of Arrow for me. Even when its numbers were sky high I can point to three or four things I didn’t enjoy. If Olicity stays together it’s because that’s where the writers determine they want the story to go and remain. Which, just so we’re clear, is where I think the story is headed. 

If this was all about live ratings well then the DC shows should just do crossovers all the damn time because that’s when everyone gets a major bump. But then that would get old and they’d need to come up with something new. Balancing what people love about the show while infusing it with new aspects to keep it interesting is one of the more difficult things writers have to do. Every season it’s done to varying levels of success.

But I was never worried about Arrow’s ratings this year. I was always confident we’d get a Season 6. Not to count my chickens, but I’m confident we’ll get a Season 7 because that’s how long the network has Stephen Amell signed for. Mostly, I’m just kicking back and watching the show. Enjoying what I enjoy and disliking what I dislike. Like every other season. :) And very much looking forward to next season.

[jbuffyangel]

Ratings Info

I get lots of questions about ratings, so I thought I would post this. I had an interesting and informative discussion with the TV Grim Reaper today regarding ratings. There was just some confusion as to what actually “counts” as live ratings, so I wanted to confirm my thinking was accurate.

So the fact is if you are not a Nielson family your viewing habits do not count in any way. If you want to learn more about a Nielson household and how Nielson tracks ratings, TV Grim Reaper sent me this great link “How Do TV Ratings Work?” It’s puppets talking ratings which is pure fun.

[jbuffyangel]

This is for the Q&A on Wednesday: Do you think Arrow will be renewed for another season? The CW hasn't announced renewals yet but shouldn't they have by now? It seems like ratings have been on the decline since Season 3 and the overall storyline has been uneven. Do you think it will come back and if it does, will it be the last one?

Yes. It will be renewed. I have no doubt about a Season 7. Stephen has repeatedly said he’s signed for seven years and the ratings are absolutely in the renewal range. Please keep in mind nobody at the CW really gives a crap about live ratings. They are all about streaming which means completed series they can sell to Netflix. The streaming numbers are never published btw. So we don’t see the numbers Pedowitz cares most about. 

I’m confident whenever the end is decided the writers will have plenty of time to write towards a satisfactory conclucsion. The CW announces their renewals early (January) or late (March/April). They are adding Sunday to their line up and have a lot of pilots in the hopper. I’m sure they are just trying to settle what they are going to pick up and what not. None of the CW shows are renewed yet. It’s fine. Don’t worry about it for a single second.

Will Season 7 be the last? I don’t know. I am absolutely okay if it is though. I’ve seen too many shows stay too long at the dance *cough*VampireDiaries*cough*. Dragging the show out for the sake of a few more bucks isn’t worth it to me.