PC’s PICKS: NCAA Week 1, Part 3
In a Week 3 tilt in 2017, San Diego State edged Stanford at home in a thriller, scoring a late touchdown for a 20-17 win after a delay for a power outage.
The win propelled San Diego State to a 10-3 season, falling only to Boise State, Fresno State, and upstart Army in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Hanging out with Coach Rocky Long at the Del Mar Fair!❤️🏈 • • •#GoAztecs#InRockyWeTrust#SDSUfootball#delmarfair pic.twitter.com/YUHulBIuoB
— SDSU Dance Team (@SDSUDanceTeam) June 23, 2018
PROGRAM TO WATCH: Already in his eighth year at San Diego State, head coach Rocky Long has made the Aztecs one of the most consistently-underrated programs on the west coast.
The Aztecs lost star running back Rashaad Penny, a first-round pick by the Seattle Seahawks, but return a third-year starter at quarterback in senior Christian Chapman, a strong, veteran offensive line and seven starters on defense.
San Diego State is poised to fight for the Mountain West crown again, but head coach Rocky Long's squad may not have enough firepower to upset Stanford this time around in a fair fight, particularly when the Cardinal have had all of the offseason to prepare for the Aztecs' troublesome 3-3-5 defense.
Stanford senior running back Bryce Love, the Heisman Trophy runner-up in 2017, returns to lead the Cardinal.
Many around the program haven't been happy with the way David Shaw's Stanford teams have finished the past few years and the San Jose Mercury News believes he's on the hot seat.
I'm not sure that's accurate – the administration at Stanford's typically as conservative as its offense when it comes to coaches and allows a longer leash in all its sports in favor of consistent relative success. The Cardinal have only won fewer than nine games once (8 in 2014) since Shaw took the helm from Jim Harbaugh in 2011 and Shaw keeps Stanford in the national conversation time and time again.
To me, it's not hard to see Shaw's an elite coach and should honestly be in the NFL.
Sophomore K.J. Costello gets the call as Shaw's quarterback this season, coming off a campaign with a 59 percent completion percentage to go with his 14 touchdowns and 1,573 passing yards. He had split time Keller Chryst, a graduate transfer to Tennessee this past offseason who had come back from a knee injury sustained the season before.
Costello gets Stanford's top four receivers from a year ago all back to couple with Love coming out of the backfield behind Phil Steele's No. 4-rated offensive line. Pairing that with Stanford's systematic defense which returns six starters, the Cardinal and Love are expecting big things as they rightfully should in a winnable Pac-14.
In his own words. Why Wake Forest’s Bryce Love skipped the NFL draft to stay at #Stanford.https://t.co/beEGwIsfL8 pic.twitter.com/cyGseJzDY1
— Jessaca Giglio (@jessacagiglio) August 30, 2018
BACK AGAIN: North Carolina native Bryce Love is still hanging out at Stanford after the Heisman Trophy runner-up stuck around for another year rather than heading to the NFL.
“The sky’s the limit this year,” Love told the Associated Press. “We definitely have some experience. We have the weapons. It should be fun.”
Fourteen points tonight, however, is a lot for Stanford to cover in a game where Costello will be gaining his footing as the full-fledged starter and where he'll be limited due to the stingy 3-3-5 configuration of the Aztecs. That puts the onus on Love, and while he's undoubtedly capable, it's the opener and there's a lot riding on where Stanford could be long-term.
I'm not saying Love will be limited, but with Southern California already on the docket in Week 2, I don't anticipate he'll see more than 17 or 18 carries.
This is a roundabout way of saying San Diego State will keep it tight. Look for a Stanford win, but something along the lines of 24-17 or 33-23.
*****
Through last night, my picks have not yet posted a loss (Wake Forest and Tulane was a push after the Demon Deacons prevailed in overtime).
Overall, I'm 5-0-1 with LOCKS so far going 2-0.
Here's tonight's board for Week 1, Part 3.:
Syracuse*+ (-5.5) at Western Michigan
Army at Duke* (-13.5)
Utah State* at Michigan State (-23.5)
San Diego State at Stanford* (-14)
Western Kentucky* at Wisconsin (-35.5)
Colorado*+ (-7.5) at Colorado State
KEY:
*denotes pick versus the spread.
+denotes pick that is one of my LOCKS.
