#russian weakness

[tomorrowusa]

« It is clear what is required to end this war. Ukraine needs to be given the weapons to defend itself and in so doing to raise the costs for Putin so much so that he, or his successor, cannot go on. Anything else, notes the former US ambassador Dennis Jett, is just a strategy to appease a dictator. »

— Basil Gavalas & Greg Mills from a piece called "Four Years On – Ten Lessons from Russia’s War in Ukraine" at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Despite the acronym, RUSI has nothing to do with Putin's Russia. It's a British think tank founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington which focuses on defense and security. The article makes a strong case on behalf of Ukraine.

This West has blown an opportunity to sideline Russia as a security threat for a generation.

Surprising that the US and Europe have not seen it in their interests to have Ukraine win and remove Russia as a conventional military threat for a long time. It would not have required a massive amount of military effort from the West since Ukraine was willing to do the fighting. Victory – defined as the expulsion of Russia from Ukrainian soil – would have allowed Europe to settle its security dilemmas for a generation or more. But the West has lacked the imagination to think of a Russian defeat, and consequently the politics to carry this out.

Russia may look huge on Mercator projection maps but has a GDP smaller than that of Italy. Outside of its biggest cities, Russia is a poor country. An astronomical percentage of the national budget maintains a large but incompetent military while a fifth of all rural households still lack indoor plumbing.

[tomorrowusa]

This month marks the 120th anniversary of the end of the Russo-Japanese War. It was the first time in the modern era that an Asian power defeated a European one.

In the vid you will notice similar incompetence to what now being displayed by Russia in its war with Ukraine.

This is far from the only war since 1900 which Russia didn't exactly win.

1921 – Russia loses the 1919-1921 Polish-Bolshevik War. Lenin's bid to bring communism to Germany and France went down in flames in the 1920 Battle of Warsaw. Poland had been reconstituted as a country for less than three years when it beat back the invading Bolsheviks.

1940 – Stalin attempts to conquer Finland, a former Russian colony, in the 1939-1940 Winter War. After 130,000+ Soviets were killed and thousands of their aircraft and tanks were destroyed, Stalin greatly reduced his objectives and settled for a few strips of borderlands. A Soviet win on paper, but a Pyrrhic one. Hitler noted this Soviet debacle in his decision to invade the USSR in 1941.

1989 – The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan ends with total withdrawal after ten years of stalemate and nearly 10,000 USSR troops dead or missing.

Some people look at Mercator projection maps and exclaim: "OMG, such a big country! Russia must be invincible." But it's been beaten before. Geographic size doesn't always matter.

Putin's overreach and incompetence are not the only factors which put Russia at a disadvantage in Ukraine.

Despite its geographic extent, Russia's GDP is about the same size as Italy's and the standard of living, especially outside big cities, is way below that of Italy. That explains why Russian soldiers steal toilets from Ukraine. They literally don't have a pot to piss in back home.

Russia's population is only 1.67 times that of Germany or about that of 3 Spains. Because of devastating losses in Ukraine, it needs to "borrow" North Korean troops and hire African mercenaries to act as cannon fodder.

Hundreds of thousands of young tech savvy Russians fled soon after Putin's invasion. Russia has not been able to make up for the massive brain drain.

So the Russo-Japanese War reminds us that some things have not changed much about how Russia has fought wars since the early 20th century. This is mostly good news for Ukraine.

[tomorrowusa]

« A więc to nie my – Zachód – powinniśmy obawiać się starcia z Putinem, lecz na odwrót. Warto o tym przypominać, nie po to, żeby wzmagać w Rosjanach poczucie zagrożenia, bo NATO jest paktem obronnym, ale żeby pokazać, że atak Rosji na któregokolwiek z członków Sojuszu skończyłby się jej niechybną klęską. Potencjał militarny i gospodarczy Rosji blednie w porównaniu z potencjałem Zachodu. (original Polish)

–––––

And so it is not we, the West, who should fear a clash with Putin, but the other way around. It's worth remembering this, not to increase Russians' feeling of danger – because NATO is a defensive pact – but in order to show that an attack by Russia on any of the members of the Alliance would inevitably result in its defeat. Russia's military and economic potential pales in comparison to that of the West. (English) »

— Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski from a wide-ranging policy address at Poland's lower house of parliament, the Sejm, on Thursday. From the official Sejm site.

Minister Sikorski gave a number of stats which reminded Sejm members how weak Russia is when compared with NATO. A few of them...

the total GDP of Russia and Belarus is US$ 2.2 trillion compared with NATO's US$ 45 trillion.

the defense budget of Russia is US$ 86.4 billion compared with a combined US$ 1.17 trillion (combined) for NATO members.

the combined population of Russia and Belarus is 153 million compared with a combined 920 million for NATO countries.

He isn't mentioning these things to be belligerent but rather to point out the true condition of Russia. Some people in the West have an exaggerated view of Russia's strength. Those folks forget that the war in Ukraine has been an almost nonstop demonstration of Russian weakness and ineptitude.

Russia relies on old school terror attacks on civilian targets with missiles and drones; its minor recent advances in the east are the result of costly human wave attacks which sacrifice tens of thousands of its own troops. And don't forget that even though Ukraine doesn't have any major naval vessels, it has neutralized Russia's Black Sea Fleet and sunk its flagship.

Bullies like to talk big to make up for their inner weakness. Putin and Trump are so much alike.

One more stat about Russia which Minister Sikorski left out: 48.1% of the population of rural Russia relies on outhouses. How worried should NATO be about a country which can't handle its shit properly?