Though it's possible to get a halfway-decent pic of Ethan's actual modelled face, it was never really meant to be seen, and it's always pretty inexpressive. But like the rest of the cast, Ethan's face does come from a real person ‒ a professional model called Ryan "Yaya" Chamki.
The upshot of his being a pro is there are actually a ton of great photos of him to be found online. And since I'm sure some fanartist would love to have them available for reference, here, have a bunch of my faves!
Having now looked at this guy's face all evening, all I can say is, 1) man, Ethan should definitely try the scruffy-half-shaven look sometime, and 2) damn, Mia Winters, you're a lucky woman!
Still want more? Well, you can try his Japanese agency profile, or the two different instagram accounts full of his photos. He has an old twitter account you can still find on nitter, and he does briefly appear in a very short Japanese watch commercial that I found on his agency profile too.
Like the rest of the game's face models, he probably had no idea what his face was going to be used for when it was scanned (very likely even the people doing the scan didn't know which would end up being used for what), and "face model for a guy whose face the player never really sees" would be an odd item on any resume. But you don't have to look hard to see the resemblance at all.