#second round proper

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Apologies for no second-round picks and recaps

During the last month, I have been VERY short on time, trying to keep up with everything holidays while getting bogged down in grad school. As a result, I have been unable to keep you guys posted on all things FA Cup.

In lieu of picks with explanations and recaps of matches, therefore, I will summarize my success in the second round proper. It turns out that I picked sixteen ties correctly out of twenty. Of the four misses, only Carlisle United’s 2-0 loss to Rochdale and Woking falling to Accrington Stanley were on the original date. Another--the ultimate giant-killing of League One Northampton Town by seventh-level Stourbridge--may have been impacted by a frozen pitch leading to the postponement of that match by nine days. Finally, I missed on Charlton Athletic, as they lost an extra-time replay to Milton Keynes Dons.

And with that, we proceed to the third round proper, which kicks off tomorrow when West Ham United host Manchester City. I think the visitors will win, but things got interesting when Ilkay Gundogan went down to an ACL tear late in 2016, and the plot thickened when Fernandinho was given a four-match suspension across all competitions, starting tomorrow. So, you never know...

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Saturday’s second round matches: the picks

Chesterfield v. Wycombe Wanderers

While the hosts are improving, having won their last two, they are still in the League One relegation zone, and Wanderers have won four in a row and are in contention for promotion to League One. Additionally, Wycombe have a slight edge in the head-to-head series (14 to 12, with five draws) and won the only cup meeting between the two teams, although that was back in 1998. I have a draw in this leg and Wanderers prevailing back home in the replay.

Prediction: Chesterfield 1-1 Wycombe Wanderers (replay required)

Blackpool v. Brackley Town

First meeting. Blackpool showed fine form in November apart from losing to Mansfield Town ten days ago. Town have been good, too, but play two levels lower and played just two league matches in November. Moreover, they are in danger of a letdown after upsetting Gillingham on the ides of last month. I expect ‘Pool to take advantage and prevail.

Prediction: Blackpool 1-0 Brackley Town

Luton Town v. Solihull Moors

Another first meeting, even though they are only a division apart. Town showed good form until losing to Portsmouth and drawing Exeter City in their last two fixtures. Before that, though, they had built up a good case for promotion to League One, as that loss to the Pompey was their first since the equinox. Moors, by contrast, started November out 0-3 in the National League and their only win last month came over last-place North Ferriby United. It should be rather easy to guess where this one will go.

Prediction: Luton Town 2-0 Solihull Moors

Sutton United v. Cheltenham Town

Another first meeting though these teams are also only separated by one level. Cheltenham may play at a higher level, but their last league win was 22 October over promotion partners Grimsby Town. Sutton United won over Aldershot 2-0 last Saturday, by contrast, and have a high-scoring attack, having dumped six on sixth-level Dartford last time in the Cup. I expect a doozy, but the home side should come out on top over an overrated League Two team.

Prediction: Sutton United 2-1 Cheltenham Town

Shrewsbury Town v. Fleetwood Town

Shrewsbury made the fifth round of the Cup last February, but they haven’t beaten comparable competition in three weeks, as their last such win came over Oxford United on 12 October and they are at the bottom of League One. By contrast, only goal difference is currently keeping the visitors out of the promotion playoff zone for entering the Championship. This is one match the home side are sure to lose, as they have never beaten Fleetwood.

Prediction: Shrewsbury Town 1-2 Fleetwood Town

Charlton Athletic v. Milton Keynes Dons

Of the seven decisive fixtures since the Dons relocated from Wimbledon in 2004, Athletic have won five, with two more being drawn. Both were relegated from the Championship after last season. However, Athletic lost just once in November, whereas the Dons’ last two league wins came over relegation-zone dwellers in Coventry City and Oldham Athletic. Another win for the home side.

Prediction: Charlton Athletic 1-0 MK Dons

Plymouth Argyle v. Newport County

Since Argyle and the Exiles resumed their series in 2013-14, the latter team have never won away in the series. Moreover, when these two met in October in Wales, Argyle came away with a 3-1 win at Rodney Parade. No miracles here.

Prediction: Plymouth Argyle 3-0 Newport County

Carlisle United v. Rochdale

In the last Cup meeting, Rochdale won here 3-1 but that was in 1959! The last time these teams met at Carlisle, United won 2-1 in 2012. I expect a similar, if more nail-biting outcome, for this one, even though both teams are doing well in their respective levels.

Prediction: Carlisle United 1-0 Rochdale

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Macclesfield Town 0-0 Oxford United

As I predicted, it was a tight match that ended in a draw. This means, of course, that the National League hosts outperformed their League One guests. The U’s outshot Town 3-2 on goal, but the home side were clearly better on the day. That said, the scene now shifts to Kassam Stadium, where the U’s will be favoured to win.

Grades: Macclesfield Town B, Oxford United C

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Macclesfield Town v. Oxford United: the pick

Macclesfield Town have the overall head-to-head edge with six wins all time to Oxford’s four (in addition to five draws). However, the last meeting between the two occurred in 2012, when both clubs were in League Two. Moreover, the only time they met in the FA Cup, the U’s came away with a 1-0 win away to Macclesfield Town. While that was in 2000, Oxford United have the edge of playing in a stronger league (League One). Finally, Town are coming off an emotional road win over League One Walsall, which could lead to a letdown; and although I’m calling this fixture a draw, I expect the U’s to pull it off in the replay.

Prediction: Macclesfield Town 1-1 Oxford United (replay required)

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Thoughts on the second-round draw

I was going to post this soon after the last Cup match prior to replays (as detailed in my last post), but I had to process the results of the elections here in the United States. Now, however, I see fit to resume my blogging regarding the world’s oldest and greatest domestic football cup competition.

As you probably know, the draw for the second round proper took place on Monday. Whenever a draw for a round proper takes place, I post my winners and losers, and even after the elections, this round is no exception. Even though there are still ties to be replayed, there are some clear consequences even when we don’t know who will fill a spot in the next round. So, here are my thoughts on who benefited and who suffered as a result of the draw:

Winners

Bolton Wanderers: Having made it to the round of 32 last year, Wanderers could, to some degree, breathe a sigh of relief concerning their chances of meeting up with a Championship team whom they presumably faced last year en route to relegation. If their opponents, Sheffield United, had gotten the home slot, I might have classified them as winners rather than the tenants of Macron Stadium. Leading the Blades by just three points in the League One table, they have nevertheless shown better form than their guests. In fact, when these teams met in the season opener, Bolton took a 1-0 victory.

Plymouth Argyle: Leading League Two as they do, Argyle will face either last-place Newport County or sixth-level Alfreton Town. Both opponents figure to be manageable for the hosts on the south coast.

Losers

Woking: In danger of relegation out of the N.L. Premier, they must face an Accrington Stanley side who almost knocked off West Ham of the Premier League in the E.F.L. Cup! Admittedly, the League Cup is not entirely comparable and the Hammers are in a down year, but Stanley upset Bradford City in the first round proper despite the fact that City are on track for automatic promotion to the Championship at this point. Don’t expect a letdown here.

Winner of Curzon Ashton v. Westfields replay: Whoever wins will take on a League One team, either fast-rising Wimbledon or Bury. Granted, Bury have sucked as of late, as they are still searching for their first win of October and November COMBINED. However, the gap will likely be too big to transcend even then, as Westfields are in the Midland Football League and Curzon Ashton are slumping in the National League North.