The FA Cup: an American perspective

I, Edward, started this blog in the interest of providing my own opinion on the oldest domestic cup competition in the world, the FA Cup. And yes, despite occasional British spellings, the title is correct: I AM American.

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Thoughts on the fifth-round draw

As I promised, I present to you my impressions of today’s fifth round proper draw. As it turns out, there will be no strictly Premier League ties in the round, as only eight maximum can enter--and that’s if Leicester City knock off Derby County in the replay on 8 February. This will be the second of three midweek fixtures in four weeks, along with tomorrow’s Premier League action and a trip to Sevilla for Champions League action on 22 February. Anyways, let’s have a look at the winners and losers from the draw:

Winners

Burnley: Winners in 1914, the Clarets last made the “elite eight” of the Cup in 2003. This is a golden opportunity to match that success, as their opponents--Lincoln City--are coming off back-to-back Championship scalps of Ipswich Town and Brighton and Hove Albion, so expect a letdown spot for the Imps. Furthermore, Burnley are doing quite well for a team starting a new streak of seasons in the top flight, trailing 12th-place AFC Bournemouth only on goal difference. If this were at Sincil Bank rather than Turf Moor, I might be picking the Imps, but there is a decent-sized gap between beating Championship teams and knocking off Premier League members.

Arsenal: The joint record holders for FA Cups won with twelve, most recently in 2015, were drawn away to Sutton United. Sutton might have pulled an even more shocking stunner than Lincoln City, who are at least topping the National League. Admittedly, Arsenal will be in European competition around that time, as they will be taking on Bayern Munich in the Champions League, but like Lincoln City, Sutton will be in danger of a letdown.

Losers

Winners of Leicester City v. Derby County replay: Whoever wins will have to take on a Millwall team who have beaten up on Bournemouth and Watford, two members of the promotion class of 2015. It wasn’t that long ago that the Lions were in the final, losing to Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United in 2004 at Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, which is where the Cup final was held while Wembley Stadium was being redeveloped. Leicester haven’t been that great in the Premier League, while Derby County have slumped as of late.

Blackburn Rovers: Though Rovers will be hankering to dethrone the holders in Manchester United, and though they have won the Cup six times in their own right, Man United are flying high, coming off a big win over visiting Wigan Athletic, 4-1. A 2-1 loss to Hull City in the League Cup semifinal second leg notwithstanding, the Red Devils’ last loss was on 3 November to Fenerbahce of Istanbul, Turkey in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Rovers are two points adrift of safety in the Championship. All this will make it very difficult to please the Ewood Park crowd.

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Fourth round first legs’ recap

The word of this year’s FA Cup fourth round proper was PARITY. I picked eleven of fifteen decided ties correctly (pending Leicester City and Derby County, who drew 2-2 in Derby and will rematch at King Power Stadium in Leicester), bringing my total to 1605 points, which means that I already have more points than a year ago through four rounds. However, the real story was the slew of upsets that I didn’t pick, though I am nevertheless happy for those winners.

The first upset occurred in Saturday’s early match, as Wolverhampton Wanderers stunned Liverpool 2-1--at Anfield, no less. I thought at the time that it was just a blip on the radar screen of the day’s action. Little did I realize that it was a sign of things to come in the course of the weekend.

The big upset of Saturday was Lincoln City’s 3-1 shocker over Championship toppers Brighton and Hove Albion. Brighton had taken a lead into halftime, only to let the host Imps equalize early in the second half. An own goal gave City the lead for good. That National League side’s accomplishment could hardly have been outdone, but yesterday Sutton United got a second-half penalty goal to kick Leeds United out of the competition 1-0. All this means that, for the first time in the League era (1888-present), two teams from below the Football League have qualified. The question now is: Will either go any farther in the competition? Certainly there have been no non-League teams in the quarterfinals in the modern era (1925-present), but then there had not been more than one non-League team getting to the fifth round in said period until this past weekend. Certainly, the sky seems the limit as to the possibilities for this year’s Cup.

Now, it’s about half an hour to the fifth round draw. I’ll be sure to post my impressions as soon as I can.

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Third round recap and fourth round preview

As we proceed to the fourth round proper, I would like to start with an update as to my third-round success. Despite mixed results on replays, I was able to pick 19 out of 32 ties correctly, the same as last year. Of course, I missed on some giant-killings, notably Lincoln City’s 1-0 replay upset of Ipswich Town. Though to be fair, who would’ve thought that the Imps, let alone Sutton United, would BOTH represent the National League in the next round? Indeed, perhaps the fall of AFC Wimbledon at home was just as shocking, although Sutton benefited from a sending-off fifteen minutes in.

The two Level 5 teams to win are the most non-league teams to make it this far since 2013, when Wigan Athletic won it all, only to get relegated three days later. Could it happen again? I think not, as I expect both Crystal Palace and Hull City--the two surviving teams in the Premier League relegation zone--to fall either this weekend or in replays. On the other hand, there are some tantalizing prospects for the first team from below the top flight to win it all since West Ham in 1980 to emerge. The possibilities I restrict to the Championship since all Cup winners since Tottenham in 1901 have come from the top two divisions. Without further ado, they are Derby County, Newcastle United, Leeds United, Brighton and Hove Albion, Huddersfield Town, Blackburn Rovers and Fulham. These seven teams have favourable matchups, whether against teams lower in the football pyramid or against struggling teams from higher up. Incidentally, the first of these teams play on my birthday, 27 January, against Leicester City. Good luck to all the teams who’ve made it this far!

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Thoughts on the fourth-round draw

Before I get into details on the round whose 32 first legs concluded today with Leeds United beating hosts Cambridge United 2-1, I am writing about the draw for the fourth round proper. One fourth of the slots--eight to be exact--have yet to be filled, but the draw proceeded as planned today, and as with the third-round draw, there emerged few opportunities for giant-killing as a result of this round’s selections. Nevertheless, there are some clear-cut winners and losers from the proceedings:

Winners

Manchester United: The holders, currently chasing a spot in European competition (as usual), drew a team from the Championship relegation zone in Wigan Athletic. Yes, I know the Latics have a history of doing well in the FA Cup despite threats of relegation--they won four years ago before dropping out of the Premier League three days later--but United are showing signs of promise after a slow start (by their standards, of course). Look for a reaffirmation of the resurgence on the last weekend of January.

Tottenham Hotspur: The eight-time winners of the Cup should strengthen their run again against League Two Wycombe Wanderers. Indeed, Wanderers struggled to put away the lowest-ranked survivors in the third round (Stourbridge), only winning 2-1 at home. Moreover, the last time they faced Premier League opposition in the competition, they were crushed at Villa Park by Aston Villa last year in a third-round replay.

Losers

Hull City: The Tigers might end up next year playing Fulham and other such teams in league play. For now, the hosts got a most manageable draw in the Premier League bottom-feeders. Never mind that Hull have done well in the League Cup, as by the time they get around to travelling to London, they will probably have been eliminated by Manchester United in that competition.

Winners of Crystal Palace v. Bolton Wanderers replay: The reward for whomever gets out of this tie will be having to face a Man City side coming off an impressive 5-0 win away to West Ham United. Admittedly, Bolton are quite dominant in League One and should get back to the Championship for next season, and they have a good Cup pedigree historically, but Man City will be ready, willing and able to knock off such an opponent. As for Crystal Palace, they are just above the relegation zone and are fading fast under interim manager Sam Allardyce.

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Apologies for no second-round picks and recaps

During the last month, I have been VERY short on time, trying to keep up with everything holidays while getting bogged down in grad school. As a result, I have been unable to keep you guys posted on all things FA Cup.

In lieu of picks with explanations and recaps of matches, therefore, I will summarize my success in the second round proper. It turns out that I picked sixteen ties correctly out of twenty. Of the four misses, only Carlisle United’s 2-0 loss to Rochdale and Woking falling to Accrington Stanley were on the original date. Another--the ultimate giant-killing of League One Northampton Town by seventh-level Stourbridge--may have been impacted by a frozen pitch leading to the postponement of that match by nine days. Finally, I missed on Charlton Athletic, as they lost an extra-time replay to Milton Keynes Dons.

And with that, we proceed to the third round proper, which kicks off tomorrow when West Ham United host Manchester City. I think the visitors will win, but things got interesting when Ilkay Gundogan went down to an ACL tear late in 2016, and the plot thickened when Fernandinho was given a four-match suspension across all competitions, starting tomorrow. So, you never know...

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Saturday’s second round matches: the picks

Chesterfield v. Wycombe Wanderers

While the hosts are improving, having won their last two, they are still in the League One relegation zone, and Wanderers have won four in a row and are in contention for promotion to League One. Additionally, Wycombe have a slight edge in the head-to-head series (14 to 12, with five draws) and won the only cup meeting between the two teams, although that was back in 1998. I have a draw in this leg and Wanderers prevailing back home in the replay.

Prediction: Chesterfield 1-1 Wycombe Wanderers (replay required)

Blackpool v. Brackley Town

First meeting. Blackpool showed fine form in November apart from losing to Mansfield Town ten days ago. Town have been good, too, but play two levels lower and played just two league matches in November. Moreover, they are in danger of a letdown after upsetting Gillingham on the ides of last month. I expect ‘Pool to take advantage and prevail.

Prediction: Blackpool 1-0 Brackley Town

Luton Town v. Solihull Moors

Another first meeting, even though they are only a division apart. Town showed good form until losing to Portsmouth and drawing Exeter City in their last two fixtures. Before that, though, they had built up a good case for promotion to League One, as that loss to the Pompey was their first since the equinox. Moors, by contrast, started November out 0-3 in the National League and their only win last month came over last-place North Ferriby United. It should be rather easy to guess where this one will go.

Prediction: Luton Town 2-0 Solihull Moors

Sutton United v. Cheltenham Town

Another first meeting though these teams are also only separated by one level. Cheltenham may play at a higher level, but their last league win was 22 October over promotion partners Grimsby Town. Sutton United won over Aldershot 2-0 last Saturday, by contrast, and have a high-scoring attack, having dumped six on sixth-level Dartford last time in the Cup. I expect a doozy, but the home side should come out on top over an overrated League Two team.

Prediction: Sutton United 2-1 Cheltenham Town

Shrewsbury Town v. Fleetwood Town

Shrewsbury made the fifth round of the Cup last February, but they haven’t beaten comparable competition in three weeks, as their last such win came over Oxford United on 12 October and they are at the bottom of League One. By contrast, only goal difference is currently keeping the visitors out of the promotion playoff zone for entering the Championship. This is one match the home side are sure to lose, as they have never beaten Fleetwood.

Prediction: Shrewsbury Town 1-2 Fleetwood Town

Charlton Athletic v. Milton Keynes Dons

Of the seven decisive fixtures since the Dons relocated from Wimbledon in 2004, Athletic have won five, with two more being drawn. Both were relegated from the Championship after last season. However, Athletic lost just once in November, whereas the Dons’ last two league wins came over relegation-zone dwellers in Coventry City and Oldham Athletic. Another win for the home side.

Prediction: Charlton Athletic 1-0 MK Dons

Plymouth Argyle v. Newport County

Since Argyle and the Exiles resumed their series in 2013-14, the latter team have never won away in the series. Moreover, when these two met in October in Wales, Argyle came away with a 3-1 win at Rodney Parade. No miracles here.

Prediction: Plymouth Argyle 3-0 Newport County

Carlisle United v. Rochdale

In the last Cup meeting, Rochdale won here 3-1 but that was in 1959! The last time these teams met at Carlisle, United won 2-1 in 2012. I expect a similar, if more nail-biting outcome, for this one, even though both teams are doing well in their respective levels.

Prediction: Carlisle United 1-0 Rochdale

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Macclesfield Town 0-0 Oxford United

As I predicted, it was a tight match that ended in a draw. This means, of course, that the National League hosts outperformed their League One guests. The U’s outshot Town 3-2 on goal, but the home side were clearly better on the day. That said, the scene now shifts to Kassam Stadium, where the U’s will be favoured to win.

Grades: Macclesfield Town B, Oxford United C

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Macclesfield Town v. Oxford United: the pick

Macclesfield Town have the overall head-to-head edge with six wins all time to Oxford’s four (in addition to five draws). However, the last meeting between the two occurred in 2012, when both clubs were in League Two. Moreover, the only time they met in the FA Cup, the U’s came away with a 1-0 win away to Macclesfield Town. While that was in 2000, Oxford United have the edge of playing in a stronger league (League One). Finally, Town are coming off an emotional road win over League One Walsall, which could lead to a letdown; and although I’m calling this fixture a draw, I expect the U’s to pull it off in the replay.

Prediction: Macclesfield Town 1-1 Oxford United (replay required)

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Dover Athletic 2-4 Cambridge United

Ricky Miller seemed to have won it for the lower-level hosts after his goal put Dover up 1-0 late. However, Mark Roberts forced extra time with a stoppage-time equalizer and that shifted momentum to the visitors, who outscored Athletic 3-1 in extra time. For their efforts, the U’s will get to host Coventry City in the next round.

Grades: Dover Athletic B-, Cambridge United A-

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Brackley Town 4-3 Gillingham

In THE upset of the round--first leg or replay--James Armson got a hat trick for the National League North hosts, who also benefited from Stuart Nelson’s own goal to progress to earn a trip to Blackpool. Cody MacDonald scored late for the visitors, but it was too little, too late.

Grades: Brackley Town A-, Gillingham B-

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Crewe Alexandra 1-4 Cheltenham Town

I should have known that Ryan Lowe, the leading scorer for Crewe Alexandra, had been benched due to injury difficulties. Without him, the home side were punchless on either side of the ball, as four Robins scored goals, propelling the visitors to a trip to Sutton United.

Grades: Crewe Alexandra D+, Cheltenham Town A

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Bristol Rovers 4-2 Crawley Town

Matt Taylor struck first in the 34th minute on a header for Rovers, but just before halftime, Jordan Roberts responded. Rory Gaffney gave the lead back to Bristol Rovers seven minutes into the second half, but Matt Harrold provided a second equalizer for the visitors thirteen minutes later. Even so, that was Town’s last gasp, as in extra time Taylor and Gaffney each added a second tally to their credit.

Grades: Bristol Rovers B, Crawley Town B-

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Coventry City 2-1 Morecambe

The Shrimps drew first blood, with Dean Winnard taking a free kick for the opening tally. But City, behind Marvin Sordell’s brace, rallied to take the lead for good twelve minutes into the second half. Thus, the dream of another Cup, however unrealistic, lives on for the 1987 winners.

Grades: Coventry City B-, Morecambe B

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Swindon Town 1-3 Eastleigh

The visiting Spitfires scored three goals before the Robins mustered even a garbage goal in the 79th minute. Now Eastleigh get a much easier tilt against Halifax Town, who play a division lower than the team who will host them, and three lower than the victims of this scalp. Could there be a return trip to the third round proper in the cards for Eastleigh? One would think so...

Grades: Swindon Town C-, Eastleigh A-

[edwardthecupfanatic]

Notts County 2-0 Boreham Wood

Jonathan Forte drew first blood for County in the 24th minute, while Aaron Collins salted it away on the last kick of the match with a goal of his own. This exorcised the bad memory of losing to Salford City by the same score a year ago. Up next is a home date against Peterborough United, who are flying fairly high in League One.

Grades: Notts County B+, Boreham Wood C+

[edwardthecupfanatic]

AFC Wimbledon 5-0 Bury

Paul Robinson’s 27th-minute strike turned out to be the game winner in this no-contest. The man of the match, though, was Dominic Poleon, who scored in each half, and Dean Parrett and Lyle Taylor added a goal apiece. Of course, the Dons were expected to advance at the expense of a team who emerged from the tilt winless in eleven straight matches (as of this writing, they are now winless in fourteen). Incidentally, the rematch a few days later (also at Wimbledon) saw the Dons again prevail easily, this time by a score of 5-1.

Grades: AFC Wimbledon A-, Bury F

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Rochdale 2-0 Maidstone United

Steven Davies scored twice for the hosts--the second goal coming on a penalty--in the first 22 minutes of the match, and that was enough to pull the League One side through to the next round. Conrad Logan thwarted every attempt that visiting United should put on his goal.

Grades: Rochdale B, Maidstone United C+