Friday in Kansas
4/22/2015.
It’s looking like severe weather in Kansas on Friday [insert witty Wizard of Oz joke here]
The NAM and GFS match up very well with this system so I am just going to use the NAM.
12Z:
Upper level winds coming from the Mexican Plateau.
Mid level winds still from the Mexican plateau providing lots of upper level dry air.
Surface winds from the southeast and Gulf of Mexico providing warm, moist air at the surface.
Forecast Sounding for 12Z in the middle of Kansas. This looks like a loaded gun sounding with, like I mentioned, dry upper air over a moist low level atmosphere. This provides a capping inversion around 850mb. Good turning of the winds, starting from the SE turning becoming strong westward winds.
00Z Winds generally the same
500mb Vorticity showing pockets of PV being advected through the region.
700mb showing vertical motion over Kansas and Oklahoma.
CAPE.
This is the forecast sounding for the same location as above; however the soundings become more impressive as you move south...
This is a sounding for 00Z from Oklahoma, showing the gun has been “fired” so to say as the atmosphere has too. As the cap breaks, all the warm moist air explodes into the atmosphere causing those severe storms to fire up at the surface. Wind shear is still significant at 00Z also.
Here is what SPC has put out for Friday; however, I believe that the Enhanced risk should extend more southerly into Oklahoma, almost touching the TX border towards Witchita Falls/above Dallas. I also think the Marginal risk should be more to the west.
No matter what, as always stay weather alert and prepared!
ELS