smallsoapdish replied to your photoset: New poll data suggests that, as expected, the...
ndp voters would not be switching to bernier’s party in any appreciable numbers
I disagree for several reasons.
In the context of that poll, I should have clarified in my original post that in the hypothetical 4% loss in NDP support in Ontario, not every voter in that 4% would necessarily flip to Maxime Bernier’s party. However, if I had to guess, I’d say that most of that 4% really would support Bernier. It’s not unthinkable that some NDP voters would switch from a left-leaning party to a right-leaning party because a lot of NDP voters really aren’t all that progressive.
First, this polling firm is already saying that young men are a key demographic Bernier will look to pull from. We saw from the American presidential election that a lot of young, male, Bernie Sanders supporters were not genuine progressives. Guys like this exist among the NDP's support base as well and could easily flip.
Second, the NDP has strong ties to unions and labour movements, which appeals to a lot of working-class voters even if they hold some pretty conservative beliefs. Some of these voters could also be persuaded to support Bernier.
Lastly, Bernier is a libertarian who promised in his platform to end corporate welfare. Libertarian beliefs like these (and with regards to civil libertarianism) are incredibly common among left-leaning NDP types.
The shift from the NDP to Bernier’s party won’t be a major factor in this election, but it’s still significant.
