Last night’s election result is a nightmare for most of us and I’m sure nobody is interested in dwelling on that, but there are a few specific things I wanted to talk about, both good and bad.
As it stands, Elections Ontario has the turnout count pegged at 43%. The ridings with the highest turnout are Huron—Bruce with 54%, and then both Niagara West and Parry Sound—Muskoka with 53%. The ridings with the lowest turnout were Kiiwetinoong with 28% (only 92% of results are in), Humber River—Black Creek with 32%, and Windsor West with 33%.
It’s impossible to gauge how many voters were discouraged from voting by polls that consistently showed the PCs with a strong advantage. We also don’t know how many people didn’t vote due to Covid-19 infection or a lack of easy access to a nearby polling station. All parties were handed a major setback yesterday when a tech issue prevented them from downloading lists of which voters had already cast a ballot and which hadn’t yet, so their ability to work strategically yesterday was limited. Regardless, 43% is a pathetic turnout rate.
It’s worth noting that the Green Party campaigned relentlessly in Parry Sound—Muskoka because, with no Liberal candidate running, they had a good chance of winning that seat. A lot of effort was made to engage with voters and win their support, both from the Greens and the incumbent PCs. Niagara West is Sam Oosterhoff’s riding, where he can mobilize a large group of supporters from his church to canvass and help people vote. Running an energetic campaign is a candidate’s job, but for the rest of us, volunteering and helping to get people to a polling station really does help. Persuading friends and family to vote helps. We’re at a disadvantage in a first past the post electoral system, so there’s zero room for apathy.
Andrea Horwath and the NDP
After four elections as leader, Andrea Horwath read the room and stepped down after running a low-energy and uninspiring campaign. In Brampton, deputy party leader Sara Singh lost her seat, as did Gurratan Singh. The PCs secured several union endorsements over the traditionally more labour-friendly NDP. The Liberals will get more attention for their trainwreck of an election, but yesterday was awful for the NDP.
With Horwath quitting, the NDP’s other deputy leader, John Vanthof, may be interested in running for the party leadership. Joel Harden and Marit Stiles are other potential contenders.
New Blue MPP Belinda Karahalios and New Blue leader Jim Karahalios both lost badly in Cambridge and Kitchener—Conestoga respectively. Derek Sloan also lost by a huge margin. The former Toronto Police Chief Mark Saunders lost in Kathleen Wynne’s old riding.
The Liberals took the riding of Kingston and the Islands from the NDP, beating Mary Rita Holland, the former president of Ontario’s NDP. Sandeep Singh, who was controversially chosen as the NDP candidate in Brampton North over the incumbent, Kevin Yarde, also lost.
Steven Del Duca has stepped down after failing to secure party status for the Liberals or win in Vaughan—Woodbridge. After flipping from the PCs to the Liberals in 2020, MPP Amanda Simard lost her seat and two of the most well-known Liberal newbie candidates, nurse Tyler Watt and vaccination advocate Jill Promoli, also lost.
There’s not much for the PCs to be disappointed about, but their candidate in Haldimand—Norfolk lost to an independent. Former seven-term PC MPP Toby Barrett chose not to run in this election, but he endorsed his assistant Bobbi Ann Brady who was running as an independent.
After narrowly losing in 2018, Chandra Pasma unexpectedly flipped Ottawa West—Nepean to the NDP. With the NDP’s only other flip, Lise Vaugeois won in Thunder Bay—Superior North.
The biggest winners are obviously the PCs. It’s rare to win a comfortable majority and then increase that majority in the next election. Opposition to Doug Ford and the PCs over the last four years has been ineffective, and we need a hard reset in terms of organization. Signing petitions, marching to Queen’s Park, and literally begging Lisa MacLeod for help has made no material difference on PC policy. I hope that the NDP will fix their deep-seated problems and set the party on a better path, but mostly I hope that people who are upset today will feel motivated to help their neighbours who will be hit hardest by four more years of PC cuts and also to join a group organizing for material and achievable wins.
