Blog 7: Fantasy Basketball Preview - Atlantic Division
September’s here! This means that there’s only less than 2 months until the NBA season kicks off. Right about time for you to start thinking of the players you want on your fantasy team. It has been one of, if not the busiest offseason in the NBA. Let’s recap on the notable moves each team has made in this offseason and how I think it will impact players’ fantasy stock for this coming year. Let’s go!
Boston Celtics
Additions: Al Horford (Atlanta), Gerald Green (Miami), Jaylen Brown (rookie), and some rooks fighting for a roster spot. Subtractions: Jared Sullinger (Toronto), and Evan Turner (Portland)
The four-time all-star, Al Horford, decided to wear the iconic green jerseys for this coming season. He’ll fit in with Brad Stevens’ system with his high basketball IQ, good passing skills, ability to stretch the floor and anchor the defense in the paint. He’s going to bring all-star calibre talent to the table, and at the same time he’s going to fit in nicely with the Celtics’ team chemistry. Fantasy wise, he’s going to get his usual 15 points and 7 rebounds with good percentages. But what made him a stud last year was his ability to shoot from range, averaging a three per game. Coach Stevens and the Celts are going to utilize his ability to stretch the floor and make plays for others. All signs are pointing up for his fantasy stock, as you’ll see him get drafted inside the top-20 range.
The pizza guy, Isaiah Thomas, made his first all-star appearance last year, but what was so undervalue was the fact that he played all 82 games last season (one of 18 players to accomplish this feat). With so many teams resting players with little nagging injuries, it’s rare to see a player fully fit for an 82 game season. With that in mind, he only averaged 32 minutes a game, and ranked 37th on Basketball Monster last season. The new signing of Horford would boost Thomas’ fantasy stock, as Horford is the type of player who can make others around him better. Imagine the pick and roll between the two all-stars, it’s going to be a nightmare to handle for the defenders, with both players able to shoot from the outside or finish around the rim efficiently. The addition of Horford is going to increase Thomas’ assists and his percentages and you might need to use a third or fourth round to try and grab him.
Jae Crowder was the surprising breakthrough player from last year. If you drafted him late or picked him up from the waiver wire, you’re a lucky guy and you’re probably cheekishly smiling right now. He ended the season with 3rd round value with his solid steals, threes, percentages and low turnovers. However, Horford’s shots are going to have to come from somewhere and I think this is where Crowder’s attempts is going to take a hit. Also, drafting the 3rd pick of the draft, Jaylen Brown, might also cut down his minutes from a early 30s to a late 20s kind of player. Crowder is a really good player, but it seems like Celts picked Brown for a reason and might give him and Marcus Smart some minutes to develop. He’ll still have a solid mid round value but don’t reach high for him.
Avery Bradley had a decent season last year, averaging a career high of 15.2 points. Another player who might take a hit in shot attempts because of the newly acquire Horford coming to town. Also, with Celtics really buying into the development of Marcus Smart, that might eat into Bradley’s minutes (led the team in minutes). With the loss of Evan Turner in free agency, that only opens up the minutes for Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Brown and Terry Rozier to share. Smart and Bradley are both players who’s going to be hovering in the later-rounds with Smart having more upside, but his efficiency still remains questionable (.348 from field and .253 from range). In terms of the bigs that’s pairing up with Horford, Amir Johnson is the only one that might be worth drafting. He had 10th round value last year in only 20 minutes a game. Celtics go small ball a lot, so you can do better with late-round bigs than these Celtics players.
Brooklyn Nets Additions: Jeremy Lin (Charlotte), Luis Scola (Toronto), Greivis Vasquez (Milwaukee), Randy Foye (Oklahoma City), Trevor Booker (Utah), and a bunch of rookies and D-league players.
Subtractions: Thaddeus Young (Indiana), Jarrett Jack (Atlanta) and a lot of other players.
What can I say about the Nets? They probably have the lowest talent pool in the NBA this coming year and I don’t think it’s even close. But fantasy is not all about talent nor wins or losses. With the new coach in Kenny Atkinson, he’s going to rev up the engine and speed up the pace to make the team run (it should be noted that the Nets were the slowest team last year). With the increase of pace, this means more possessions, and that would ultimately lead to more stats! Let’s start off with Brook Lopez, who had a solid and healthy (I was shocked!) year. He finished off with late 2nd round value, and this is his second consecutive year that he played 70+ games. The stud averaged 20 points, 8 rebounds and nearly 2 blocks, with good percentages, and made every owner who passed on him sulk (especially me). Is he worth grabbing this year? Yes, but keep in mind that the fear of checking whether he’s injured every game is not going to be that fun. He might shoot more threes this year too, but I wouldn’t bet my money on an Al Horford like increase in terms of his outside range. I wish you all the BroLo owners the best of luck.
Jeremy Lin had himself a solid season playing the 6th man for the Hornets last year, but he wasn’t worth owning except for a plug and play sort of deal. He has the keys to the team now, and has the freedom to run, which ultimately fits his strong suit. In the 13 games that he started for the Hornets, he averaged 17.5 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists with nearly 2 threes a game, decent percentages at .461 from field and .825 from the charity stripes. It’s a small sample size but it shows that he’s been really improving his game year by year, especially from the Linsanity days. His field goal percentages might take a dip, and he might average nearly 3 turnovers a game, but the Nets need another scorer apart from Lopez and this is the perfect opportunity for Lin to step it up. He’s going to get to the line a lot, and has been relatively durable and healthy throughout his NBA career so he’ll make a really good impact if you’re banking on the free throws category. Personally, I like him and I think he’s a mid-late rounder with some really good upside. Just don’t get overhyped and grab him super early.
Some late-rounders that might be worth giving a little of your attention to is Bojan Bogdanovic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker. Bojan just led the Olympics in scoring and his ability to shoot from range is going to be crucial for the Nets to put points on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt with 3 threes a game this year. Hollis-Jefferson is going to see some heavy minutes in his sophomore year at the two spot. He showed glimpses of his athleticism last year but you’re not going to see a sudden increase in threes, or scoring. Rather, you might see a younger, more athletic Tony Allen type of stat lines from him. Trevor Booker never really wowed anybody when he was playing with the Jazz, as he was behind Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert in the front court rotation. He’s going to share minutes with Scola but his playstyle is much more suited to partner up with BroLo and you might see a poor man’s Tristan Thompson there, which might be worth taking a look at in deeper leagues.
New York Knicks
Additions: Derrick Rose (Chicago), Joakim Noah (Chicago), Courtney Lee (Charlotte), Brandon Jennings (Orlando), Justin Holiday (Chicago), and a handful of european rookies
Subtractions: Robin Lopez (Chicago), Jose Calderon (Chicago), Jerian Grant (Chicago), Derrick Williams (Miami), and some rotation players.
Good news! The hiring of Jeff Hornacek is going to boost the fantasy stock of Knicks’ players. For the seasons that they ran the triangle offense, they hovered around the last spot in terms of pace. Knowing Hornacek, they’re going to space the floor with shooters, speeding up the tempo of the game, and this means potential fantasy goodies! Carmelo Anthony’s upside just got a lot more brighter. We haven’t really seen Melo in an uptempo style really since his Denver days. Considering he stays healthy (he played 72 games last year, when everyone thought he’s going to shut down mid-season), he really should be picked during the 2nd round. The thing is, at the age of 32, can his knees withstand the pressure? I’m staying clear of him unless he’s still there during the 3rd round for me to grab, since there’s a new sheriff in town.
PORZINGOD!! I’m one of the lucky owners that had a chance to grab Kristaps Porzingis on one of my teams last year and boy, was he fun to own. The putbacks, the blocks, the threes. I think he shut everybody up in his first game of the NBA, especially the people who booed him when the Knicks drafted him. He’s proven that he has the potential to be a franchise caliber player. In this first season he already showed his toughness on defense, holding his ground with players bigger and stronger than he is when everyone was saying he couldn’t hold his own. He dipped a little towards the second half of the season (the rookie wall), but this year, everyone’s expecting big things from him. I’m expecting the Latvian gangbanger to have at least 15 points, 7 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 2 blocks. It’s just a slight increase from his rookie year, but considering he has better teammates this year, he shouldn’t have to work as much. That’s still good enough for 3rd or 4th round and let me tell you, the combination of threes and blocks is gold!
The delusioned Derrick Rose (he called the Knicks a super team) silently had a decent year for the Bulls last year. He played 66 and 51 games in the last two seasons, and we’re probably never going to see the old DRose playing 70+ games from now on. He hasn’t been really efficient as well, averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, with less than one three and steal a game. You can expect him to boost that assist number up a little but he wasn’t even in the top 190 players in Basketball Monster’s player ranking last year. If you want popcorn stats towards the end of your draft, he’s your guy. Noah played 29 games, with 4.3 points, and nearly 9 rebounds in less than 22 minute a game. Safe to say, he’s clearly a downgrade from Robin Lopez, but the intangibles that he brings to the locker room is going to be valuable but that’s not really fantasy related, I would stay off him. Courtney Lee might be the newest addition that I like the most for fantasy goodies. He only averaged one three a game for the Hornets last year, but playing with Melo, Porzingis, and Rose might actually give him more space and freedom to shoot from the corner. Plus, he doesn’t really have anyone to share minutes with. I’d take a late-round flier for threes and steals from him if he’s still on the board.
Philadelphia 76ers
Additions: Ben Simmons (rookie), Joel Embiid (back from 2 years of injury), Dario Saric (rookie), Gerald Henderson (Portland), Jerryd Bayless (Milwaukee), and some D-league calibre and european players
Subtractions: Ish Smith (Detroit), Isaiah Canaan (Chicago), and Kendall Marshall (Utah)
The leading advocate of the tank train, Sixers, are finally heading towards the right direction! Congratulations on finally having the first pick of the draft, in what feels like decades of busts and disappointment. If you search up Ben Simmons summer league highlights on YouTube, you would feel excited for the 76ers and know what the fuss is all about. He’s still lacking a jump shot but it was reported that he’s working on it and making it his first priority this offseason. He’s 6’10, 240 lbs, and he’s going to be running the point guard duties for the team. You can expect a lot of stat lines flirting with triple doubles and popcorn stats, but the steals, threes, and blocks department won’t look as good. Plus the crowded front court of the 76ers really cramps up the minutes. Still too early to tell what Brett Brown is going to do, as he’s going to have to do some trial and error with his franchise player on what position he’s going to play. Drafting him around mid-late (8th-10th) round would be pretty ideal, especially if you need assists on your team but he’s probably gone by then.
Let’s talk about Jahlil Okafor, who was the leading scorer of the Sixers last season. He’s not going to get as many minutes or as many looks this coming year. Okafor is competing minutes with Nerlens Noel, Embiid, Saric, and Simmons. That’s 5 players fighting for two spots, and by the looks of things, Sixers aren’t really buying into Okafor and Noel being their building blocks for their future. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets traded mid-season, but his skills down low in the block is as smooth as silk. He brings an automatic 18 points to teams who need a low post threat. Sort of like a new look Al Jefferson. With averages of 17.5 points and 7 rebounds, he was only a 9th round value. I’d stay clear from Okafor, as the upside isn’t as high this year but he’s worth a look towards the late-rounds.
Robert “Bob” Covington had 6th round value last year. He’s going to be crucial for the Sixers to win games this coming season, as he’s probably the only threat from range in the team, maybe Saric as well. He’s going to flirt with 3 threes a game and possibly 2 steals, but the percentages (38% from field) is going to be a turnoff. Reminds you of a Trevor Ariza doesn’t he? If you don’t mind the percentages, he’s worth a mid-round grab. Meanwhile, the rookies that are not named Ben Simmons, are playing their first games in the NBA this year after being drafted years ago. Joel Embiid has impressed in his 1-on-0 workout videos, moving silky smooth for a 7’2’ big man. Showing shades of Hakeem the Dream. The Sixers won’t rush him to play heavy minutes, but the big man has potential and upside. I believe he’ll have solid stats even with 20 minutes a game. A late-round flier for him would be ideal if you need a big man. Dario Saric on the other hand, is another 6’10 do-it-all type of player. He averaged 11.8 points, 6.7 boards and 3.2 dimes during his stretch of games in the Olympics. Not dominating but he did show that he can stretch the floor and beat you off the dribble if he’s playing the 4 and post you up and score down low if he’s matched up against a smaller defender. He’s going to start off slow while he adjusts to playing in the NBA. He’s going to have his up’s and down’s as rookies tends to have in the league, but he’s worth a late-round pick for his upside.
Toronto Raptors
Additions: Jared Sullinger (Boston) and some players fighting for the final roster spot
Subtractions: Bismack Biyombo (Orlando), Luis Scola (Brooklyn), and James Johnson (Miami) The Raptors had a surprisingly good year which exceeded a lot of people’s expectations. They made re-signing DeMar DeRozan their biggest priority to keep their core intact. DeRozan ended last year as the 48th best player according to Basketball Monster. He ended the season with 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4 assists with a steal per game. His true value comes from the free throws category, where he hits 85% on 8.4 attempts a game, sort of a James Harden lite. His teammate, Kyle Lowry, encourages him to shoot from range, but he’s only been hitting 0.6 threes per game, so if you’re punting threes on your team, his value will skyrocket up. He’s a solid pick for fourth-fifth round value.
Skinny Lowry amazed people in fantasy last year, as he ended the year with first round value. The two-time all-star’s numbers was immense, 21.2 points, 4.7 boards, 6.4 dimes, 2.1 steals and 2.8 treys in 37 minutes a game! Him and DeRozan is expected to carry the load on the offensive end again this year in a relatively stronger Eastern Conference. They were the second seed by the end of the regular season, but this year they’re going up against some tough competition in their own division with Boston making some major acquisitions. Games are going to be more competitive for The North this year, but having been to the playoffs and knowing what it takes to be successful there, they might lower Lowry’s minutes just a bit to give him some legs for the playoffs. He’ll still be good for you in an early second round pick but I think it’s a little bit of a reach if he ends up as the top 10 pick.
Is this finally the year Jonas Valanciunas breaks out (again)? It’s been the same question every year for the Lithuanian big man. He only averaged 26 minutes a game last year, which was the lowest compared to the previous two years (26.2 and 28.2). However, he had a career high of 12.8 points and 9.1 rebounds in the 60 games he played. Even though it was his career high, we all expected a little more out of the center right? This year, the center position is finally all his, no more Bismack Biyombo, meaning no need to share minutes. Unless Lucas Nogueira suddenly makes a leap, which is unlikely. I expect big things from JV this year and he should see an increase in usage rate and minutes. Then again, it’s been said for the past three years. Valanciunas ended the year with 5th round value last year, and I’m big on him this season. He would be solid for fourth round pick. If JV’s minutes don’t hike up, Dwane Casey is going to hear it from the whole of Lithuania.
DeMarre Carroll was a disappointment to the fantasy owners who used a draft pick on him. Before his big time move to the Raptors, he was Jae Crowder before Jae Crowder had his excellent season last year. But because of injuries that only made him play 26 games, he couldn’t bounce back to the Carroll that we all loved when he was in Atlanta. He’s going to play a vital part for the Raptors to be successful this year as he’s going to have the responsibility to defend the opposing team’s best scorer. If he can remain healthy next year, we’re going to see the DeMarre Carroll of old, and he might slip under a lot of people’s radar when it’s time to draft. He’s worth a seventh or eighth round pick right now, which would be a little bit higher than his ADP but peak Carroll in 2014-15 season had fifth round value, so sniping him off then is worth a risk. I’d put him in your watch list if I were you.
Season’s just around the corner! Doing your prep work and being ready now will give you an advantage of the other players that you’re going to compete with, so why not give yourself a head start! Come back soon for the previews of the remaining teams in the NBA. Meanwhile, you can also hit me up @bfantasyhoops on Twitter!
