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I decided to change platforms and I’m not going to use this site anymore. I’m over at Wordpress. Come check it out! I’m still doing the fantasy previews over there, it’s much better!!
The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and you might want to do some prep work before the big draft. For the next few weeks at BFantasyHoops, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy preview right here and with every preview, there is going to be a TL;DR section if you scroll down. So far, I’ve covered the Atlantic and Central divisions and the previous post was on the Charlotte Hornets. This time we’re going to South Beach!
Notable Arrivals: Dion Waiters (Oklahoma City), Derrick Williams (New York), Willie Reed (Brooklyn), James Johnson (Toronto) and Wayne Ellington (Brooklyn)
Notable Departures: Dwyane Wade (Chicago), Luol Deng (Los Angeles), Joe Johnson (Utah), Amar’e Stoudemire (Israel), and Gerald Green (Boston)
Miami Heat entered into last season as one of the intriguing teams to watch. Unfortunately, with the whole Chris Bosh’s blood clot situation, he was ruled out for the rest of the season and nobody knew if he was gonna come back and play another game in the NBA. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that there is a “growing optimism” that Bosh will play this coming season, which is good news for the Heat and fans of the NBA.
Apart from Bosh’s situation, Heat also lost their franchise player since 2003, Dwyane Wade. After playing in Miami for 13 years, Wade left for the Windy City, which left a huge gaping hole in the roster. Not only that, but their free agent signings in Luol Deng and Joe Johnson also decided to leave South Beach, when they were an integral part of the small ball lineup that the Heat had last year. After losing 3, potentially 4 starters, Heat did not replenish their roster with the same amount of talent, which would mean they’re going to turn to their young players for production. Let’s head to the beach and see which players you should target and stay away from. Let’s go!
Hassan Whiteside - We all expected Hassan Whiteside to have an immense season, and he proved us all right. With his ability to finish around the rim, grab boards and block shots (led the league in this category), he deservedly earned himself a massive contract. Whiteside finished the year with 14.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks in only 29.1 minutes per game. He also shot .605 from the field and improved his free throw accuracy to .650. What was interesting to see and caught everyone with their pants on the ground was that Whiteside started hitting his free throws after the All-Star break. In 28 games post All-Star, he had 5.9 free throw attempts per game and he shot it at a .750 rate. It elevated his game, and skyrocketed his fantasy stock to first round value. He finished the year as the seventh best player in fantasy basketball according to Basketball Monster. Heading into this year, you can probably expect his blocks to regress a little bit as he was swatting shots at an absurd rate. However, his minutes will increase as long as he stays out of foul troubles, and you can also expect a hike up in usage rate, which potentially could lead to an increase in points. Personally, it should be reasonable to see him average 17 points, 13 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game and that is worthy of a first round pick. His Yahoo! rank is 14 right now, but you can make an easy argument to bump him up to a top-10 pick.
Goran Dragic - Personally, Goran Dragic is the biggest winner of Dwyane Wade’s departure. He had himself a rather disappointing season and never looked like his old “Dragon” self. Last year he averaged 14.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists with 0.9 threes and 1.0 steals in 32.8 minutes on the floor. It wasn’t his best stat line, and it shows as he finished the year with only ninth-round value, far below his ADP. With Wade leaving town, Dragic is going to be the primary ball-handler for this Heat team, instead of standing in the corner and waiting for the ball. Coach Spoelstra came out and said Dragic is going to lead the Heat to a faster up-tempo pace offense in the coming season, which would lead to more possessions for potential fantasy goodies. I think we might see shades of ‘13 Dragic when he was on the Suns (top 25 value), and have himself a bounce-back season. He’s listed at rank 70 according to Yahoo! And his ADP is about the same. People are sleeping on him, and at the end of the season we might see him exceed his ADP. He’s a good mid-round point guard to have this year and you might want to sneak him in a round earlier for that upside.
Chris Bosh - Even though the Heat are reportedly optimistic about Chris Bosh playing this season, you’ll never know if this blood clot thing would resurface again. I’m not a medical expert but to my knowledge, blood clots aren’t exactly permanently treatable, and thus, you’ll have to keep taking blood thinners to prevent it from clotting. Moreover, it’s the second time that Bosh was sidelined because of this. Personally, I’m going to stay away from Bosh this year, because I’m a pretty risk averse owner when it comes to injuries after dealing with Bradley Beal’s situation. I do think that Bosh is this year’s wildcard and IF he’s healthy for the whole season, the team that drafted CB would probably have a higher chance of winning. Before being sidelined, Bosh averaged 19.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, with 1.5 triples, 0.7 steals and 0.6 blocks in the 53 games that he played. His production is worth third-round value according to Basketball Monster. It’s a risky gamble because you don’t know if he’s going to play this year, and if he is playing, you don’t know how often and how long he’s going to play. His ADP and Yahoo! Ranks are at 77 and 76, but having a sixth-round pick that could potentially miss out is a bit risky. Let’s just say the later you pick Bosh, the more it will pay out, assuming he returns this season and good luck to the Bosh owners this year.
Josh Richardson - There are big shoes to fill for the starting 2-spot in Miami. It’s going to be a battle between Josh Richardson and Dion Waiters with Tyler Johnson hovering around. However, Richardson recently suffered from a partially torn MCL that would cost him 6-8 weeks. That could mean Waiters would be in the starting lineup come opening day, with Tyler Johnson filling in some minutes. However, we all know Waiters isn’t really worth a fantasy pick unless you’re in deep leagues. Tyler Johnson might be a streamer come opening week, but not really worthy of a pick as well. When Richardson comes back, he’s a good source of triples and steals in the late-rounds. Moreover, his upside is better compared to Waiters and Johnson. After the All-Star break, Richardson played himself in to the rotation for some meaningful minutes. He averaged 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.7 triples and 1.0 steals in the 29 games he played post All-Star. They’re not spectacular but you can expect improvements in his game heading into his second year in the league. Entering into this year’s draft, Yahoo! has him at 308, and his ADP is at 137. The ADP might fall a bit due to the injury but that only means that people are sleeping on him more. I’d put my money on Richardson between him, Waiters, and Tyler Johnson.
Justise Winslow - Say what you want to say about Winslow, he’s a good player but fantasy wise, he’s just not that appealing. He’s a good rebounder and defender in his position, but it doesn’t really translate into stats and that’s all we care about. He’s locked in for the starting 3-spot since Luol Deng left for Hollywood, which means he’s going to get heavy minutes game-in-game-out. In the 28 games Winslow played after the All-Star break, he averaged 7.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.8 assists with 0.3 triples, and 1.1 steals in 30 minutes per game. With the departure of Wade, I still don’t see his usage rate increasing this year, as he’s still not polished as an offensive player. He might not have his breakout year just yet, but maybe in a year or two, he will. Winslow finished the year way off the fantasy radar and right now Yahoo! has him at 200 with his ADP at 142. I’d leave him out of the way for others to pick when there are better players with higher upside and fantasy production in threes, steals or blocks.
TL;DR
Early-Rounds: Hassan Whiteside
Mid-Rounds: Goran Dragic
Late-Round: Chris Bosh, Josh Richardson
Deep Leagues: Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson
Sleepers: Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson
Busts: Chris Bosh, Justise Winslow
Follow me @BFantasyHoops on Twitter for more previews, blogs, and fantasy goodies! Come back tomorrow when go to Disney World!
The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and you might want to do some prep work before the big draft. For the next few weeks at BFantasyHoops, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy preview right here. So far, I’ve covered the Atlantic and Central divisions and the previous post was on the Atlanta Hawks. This time we’re going to Buzz City!
Notable Arrivals: Ramon Sessions (Washington), Roy Hibbert (Los Angeles), Christian Wood (Philadelphia), and Brian Roberts (Portland)
Notable Departures: Jeremy Lin (Brooklyn), Courtney Lee (New York), Al Jefferson (Indiana), and Tyler Hansbrough (FA)
The Charlotte Hornets were surprisingly good last year, and they were really entertaining to watch! Credits to Steve Clifford, as he’s changed the team’s identity to a three-point oriented team. They won their first ever playoff game since Michael Jordan became the majority owner of the Hornets/Bobcats era. And now all signs are pointing towards the right direction for this Hornets team. Heading into this offseason, many players that played significant roles for the Hornets last season did not return which left gaping holes in their rosters. Let’s take a look at what the Hornets did this offseason and see what has changed for some of the players’ fantasy stock. If it’s too much, you can scroll down at the bottom for a TL;DR section. Let’s go!
Kemba Walker - Kemba Walker had a breakout year last season and exceeded every owner's’ expectations. He set new career highs in almost every stat and led Buzz City to the third best record in the Eastern Conference. He averaged 20.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists, along with 2.2 triples, 1.6 steals and 2.1 turnovers. Nobody should doubt Kemba’s ability to stuff his stats but his efficiency on the floor was always questioned (averaged below 40 percent from the field in ‘13 and ‘14). Last year, with new players like Nicolas Batum sharing the offensive load and playmaking role, it allowed Kemba to make better decisions on the floor and have improved shot selections, shooting a career high .427 from the field. Last year, he finished the year as the 18th best player according to Basketball Monster and with this year’s draft coming up, Yahoo! listed him at 33, which is also around his ADP. Kemba’s at his prime right now and entering into his sixth year in the NBA, he should have figured the in’s and out’s of the game in order for him to be push himself to be a star in the league. This might be Kemba’s year and he’s a solid early-round point guard for you to draft.
Nicolas Batum - Personally, I’m a big fan of Batum and was definitely riding on the hype train this time last year. It paid off for fantasy owners, as the change in environment allowed him to have a bounce back season of sorts. He had a career high in usage rate (21.4 percent), and the Hornets trusted him with the ball to make plays. He had an all-around stat line of 14.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 2.0 triples, 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks. He’s capable of flirting with triple doubles every night along with the ability to have a triple one in threes, steals and blocks (I love players who can do this). He finished the year with fifth-round value in 9-cat according to Basketball Monster. However, heading into this years draft, Yahoo! has him at rank 74 with his ADP at 70. Which I think is really disrespectful to Batum, so you might want to sneak him up a couple rounds earlier than what his ADP projects. He should continue along the same path that he had last year and with departures to Courtney Lee, and Jeremy Lin, Batum could potentially increase his usage rate even more this coming season. Picking Batum in the fourth-round or in the vicinity of the 50th pick seems reasonable.
Marvin Williams - I really liked Marvin Williams last season, not enough to draft him but luckily enough to pick him up from the waiver wire early on in the season. There were signs in last year’s offseason that pointed to a breakout year. He got into the best shape of his career for probably his last opportunity to scoop up a big paycheck. Now that he signed a, four-year $54.5 million deal to stay in Charlotte, what’s going to change this coming season? Probably not much, but maybe a slight regression now that he’s entering in his twelfth-year. He averaged 11.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.9 threes, 0.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, while shooting at a decent .452 from the field. He excelled in playing the small ball four for the Hornets and was able to grab a decent amount of boards, blocking shots and at the same time shoot threes at a good percentage (shot .402 from range). Again, I’d like to reaffirm my appreciation for players that have the ability to get triple ones (threes, steals and blocks) and Williams has the ability to do just that. The 30 year old finished the year as the 47th best player in 9-cat and Yahoo! still sleeps on him! He’s listed at 214, while his ADP is at 130. That’s blasphemy, and owners are getting a steal come draft time if his ADP still remains the same. His backups aren’t going to pose huge threats to share minutes with Williams and Coach Clifford would likely stick with what worked last season. There’s no reason to suspect any major changes with Williams and you would still get value if you move him up to mid-late-rounds.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - The second pick of the 2012 NBA draft played seven games last season and more importantly, in his four-year career, 3 of them has been plagued by injuries. At what point do you start putting the injury prone label on a player? What’s for sure is that he is still young and has upside. He’s also an elite defender and rebounder for his position. What he lacks is the ability to score and shoot the ball, but in the small sample size of seven games from last season, he showed improvements of making the three ball. He averaged 12.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 threes, 0.4 steals, and 0.4 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game in seven games. He also shot .541 from the field and .429 from range! Nobody could predict that coming off a shoulder injury, MKG could hit threes let alone even have the balls to attempt them. If MKG can show improvement in this department, his stock is definitely going up, but we’ve all seen videos of his broken jump shot and it’s safe to say that it’s not the prettiest. However, what we can focus on is that he’s had a healthy offseason to improve on his game, and with the departure of Courtney Lee, he’s heading into this season as the starting small forward. Yahoo! ranks him at 366 (please have your own rankings!) and his ADP is at 148 as of now. His averages from last year is worth an eleventh-round pick according to Basketball Monster and if you expect him to develop and improve his shot, having him near the 100s would be justifiable, as he has the potential to have a mini-breakout this coming year.
Cody Zeller - Cody Zeller, the youngest of the Zeller brothers, is heading into this coming season as the starting center, with Roy Hibbert backing him up. His performance from last year fluctuated like that period of time that comes once a month. He averaged 8.7 points, 6.2 rebounds 0.8 steals and 0.9 blocks whilst shooting .529 from the field, which are all career highs for Zeller. Heading into this season, his minutes should spike up (averaged 24.3 minutes last season) considering Roy Hibbert has absolutely been terrible over the last couple of years. I’m a firm believe that there’s no space for a big man like Roy Hibbert in the league, as he’s just too slow and ineffective on the court. Heading into his fourth season, Zeller should be expected to have a bigger role on the team and heavier minutes. His Yahoo! rank is at 167, and his ADP is at 142 but if you’re in need with some low-end big men on your team with some good source of rebounds and maybe a block or two, you should find yourself looking at Zeller towards the late rounds.
TL;DR
Early-Rounds: Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum
Mid-Rounds: Marvin Williams
Late-Rounds: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller
Sleepers: Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams
Busts: N/A
Follow me @BFantasyHoops on Twitter for more previews, blogs, and fantasy goodies! Come back tomorrow when go down to South Beach!
The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and you might want to do some prep work before the big draft. For the next few weeks at BFantasyHoops, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy preview right here. So far, I’ve covered the Atlantic and Central divisions and the previous post was on the Milwaukee Bucks. This time we’re going to A-Town!
Notable Arrivals: Dwight Howard (Houston), Jarrett Jack (Brooklyn), Taurean Prince (rookie), and DeAndre’ Bembry (rookie)
Notable Departures: Al Horford (Boston), and Jeff Teague (Indiana)
In back-to-back years, the Atlanta Hawks got swept by the Cavaliers in the playoffs! It seems like they are locked in for an early round exit in the playoffs every year. Thus, the front office decided to do a little bit of remodelling on the roster. The Hawks aren’t exactly rebuilding their roster, just a little bit of refurnishing. They used Jeff Teague as a trading chip to trade for the 12th pick of this year’s NBA draft, which resulted in rookie Taurean Prince. At the same time, they signed three-time defensive player of the year in Dwight Howard to replace Al Horford. They’re trying to have a younger roster while attempting to remain competitive in the Easter Conference. Fantasy wise, the new look of the team changed the scenery for some players and might result in some potential breakout studs. Let’s take a look at the fantasy stock for these players for this upcoming season. KA-KAW!
Paul Millsap - I think we can dub him to be the new Mr. Consistency or Mr. Reliable, as Paul Millsap probably won’t let any fantasy owners down. The three-time All-Star averaged 17.1 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 0.9 threes, 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks. He also shot .470 from the field and .757 from the charity stripe, making him an attractive pick for roto leagues. With the departure of Al Horford, and the arrival of Dwight Howard, these changes might tweak things a little bit for Millsap. He might increase his scoring output to make up for Howard’s lack of an offensive game. However, his rebounds and blocks might take a slight dip as Howard’s an elite rebounder and defender. But no matter what happens, Millsap is always going to be an enticing pick, because of his contributions to threes, steals and blocks (fantasy gold!) on a fantasy team. He had top-10 value at the end of the season, and his Yahoo! rank and his ADP is hovering around that vicinity. He’s a solid second round pick, and you can’t go wrong with Millsap.
Dennis Schroder - A potential breakout candidate for this coming year is the German Maestro, Dennis Schroder. With the departure of Jeff Teague, it opens up minutes for Schroder to flourish in the starting point guard position. Schroder’s per 36 minutes stats were 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.7 threes, 1.6 steals and 4.1 turnovers. I’ve never been a big fan of using per 36 stats to project someone’s ability to play. Specifically, Schroder’s stats from last year was mainly from playing with the second unit as the primary scorer, thus resulting to a stat inflation. However, Schroder only started for 6 games last year which was a small sample size. You can expect a Reggie Jackson-esque type of breakout from Schroder, where he’s going to increase his stats with inefficient shooting and turnovers. I expect his minutes to be at the early 30s at best, since he’s going to have a pretty steep learning curve in his first full season as a starter. I feel like he’s not truly a sleeper candidate with all the fantasy sites hyping him up, there’s a potential of hyping him too much resulting in a bust. His Yahoo! rank is at 60, which is above players like Goran Dragic and Nicolas Batum. Picking the German point guard at the 60th pick is a bit too high for me, he’s more suitable around the 70th pick.
Dwight Howard - The ATL just changed their identity with the new acquisition of Superman, Dwight Howard, as a replacement for their four-time All-Star, Al Horford. The two centers cannot be any more different in terms of play style. One is a pick and roll player, another is a pick and pop. One has no offensive game, whilst the other can stretch the floor and take you down low. One’s an elite defender and shot blocker, while the other one is solid but not as good at these things. It’s going to be interesting to see how Mike Budenholzer integrates Howard into the offense. During this summer, we’ve all seen Howard’s videos on social media of him shooting free throws and 18 foot jumpers on social media (Why?! Just stick to what you’re good at Dwight!). He’s been making it a priority this offseason to get better at that aspect, but we’re probably not going to see much improvement in those areas. Last year, he averaged 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.0 steal, and 1.6 blocks. It couldn’t be more obvious that he wasn’t happy playing alongside James Harden. There was no motivation in his game, and his shot attempts were the lowest since his rookie year. Personally, I feel like he’ll have a bounce back year with the Hawks, and play well in his hometown. An optimistic look for the season would be around 16 points, 11 rebounds with a steal and flirting with two blocks, but I don’t think Superman is at his prime athletically to block that many shots. If you’re drafting Dwight, you’re complimenting your poor free throw shooting bigs (Andre Drummond’s and the DeAndre Jordan’s) with him, as he can singlehandedly ruin your free throws. A solid seventh-round pick for Dwight would be reasonable in head-to-head leagues.
Kent Bazemore - The swingman position for the Hawks won’t be as clearcut as last year. With players like Kent Bazemore, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Hardaway Jr. and rookie, Taurean Prince all fighting for minutes at the two and three spot, it will be tough to see which one of them can gain consistent minutes all throughout the year. One of the fantasy relevant players that owners can consider with a late-round pick is Kent Bazemore. I was one of the lucky few GMs who picked Bazemore up from the waiver wire last year, as I watched him shoot lights out to give me some of the fantasy goodies for my team. This summer, after signing a 4-year contract worth $70 million, I just don’t think he’ll have the urge and the desperation to perform as well as he did last season. He averaged 11.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 triples and 1.3 steals in 27.8 minutes of play. That was good enough for seventh-round value according to Basketball Monster in 9-cat leagues. He dipped a little bit towards the second half of the season with teams starting to figure him out more, so don’t expect him to match his efficiency that he had last year. He’s still worth a late-round pick (around the 100th pick).
Kyle Korver - Another wing man that you might want to consider if you need threes, is Kyle Korver. He has been shooting lights out for many years in the NBA, but after suffering injuries (ankle and elbow) in 2014 playoffs, he wasn’t really the same going into the season. He shot .435 from the field, which was down from .487 in ‘14. He also shot .399 from the threes which was the lowest since his ‘08 season. We might be witnessing the downfall of Kyle Korver now that he’s approaching his 14th year in the NBA. The 35 year old averaged 9.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 triples and 0.8 steals last year. Which was eleventh round material according to Basketball Monster. His value comes from his ability to hit the three but with the league’s transition to shooting more threes, you’d expect him to flirt with three triples a game in consideration to his elite shooting skills. It’s reported that he’s had a healthy offseason to train and had the chance to work out this summer instead of rehabbing his injuries. Korver might have a better season compared to the last one but he’s not worth anything more of a late-round flier from fantasy owners. More importantly, the Hawks might want to give young guys like Hardaway Jr. and Prince some minutes to develop for the long run. Sefolosha would also be his old reliable self to play some solid defense and guard the opposing team’s best scorer if they need to shut down someone. Thus, picking Korver is a risky late-round flier with not much upside. Personally, I’d stay away from him in 12-team leagues unless you’re desperate for threes.
Follow me @BFantasyHoops on Twitter for more previews, blogs, and fantasy goodies! Come back tomorrow for Buzz City!
The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and you might need to do some prep work before the big draft. For the next few weeks at BFantasyHoops, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy preview right here. So far, I’ve covered the Bulls, the Cavs, the Pistons and the previous post was on the Pacers. This time it’s the lanky and lengthy Milwaukee Bucks.
Notable Additions: Matthew Dellavedova (Cleveland), Mirza Teletovic (Phoenix), and Thon Maker (rookie)
Notable Subtractions: Jerryd Bayless (Philadelphia), and Greivis Vasquez (Brooklyn)
Not that many teams feared the deer last season, as they finished with a measly 33-49 record. They’re sticking with the same group of athletic, long and young players. In the second half of last season, Jason Kidd experimented with “Point Giannis” (you’re going to see me mention about this a lot) and surprised a lot of people. It wasn’t that successful to turn it in to a winning record, so it’s still in the R&D stage, but it turned out good for a lot of fantasy owners. Assuming they’re continue with this transition, the Bucks are going to produce a lot of fantasy goodies this year. Let’s dive into the players you may want to target for this year’s draft!
I’m not really a big fan of post All-Star break stats but Jason Kidd transitioned the playmaking responsibilities to Giannis Antetokounmpo during that time. Thus, I think it's crucial to take a look at post All-Star stats for players on the Bucks as it’s a relatively reliable preview to what they can provide for fantasy GMs this year. In the 28 games played after the All-Star break, Giannis averaged a beastly 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, along with 1.4 steals and 1.9 blocks. He also shot an efficient .509 from the field with most of his baskets coming from around the rim. The general manager of the Bucks, John Hammond, came out and said he’s going to be one of the primary ball handlers on the team this offseason, which basically means the Bucks are handing the keys to Giannis. The upside is unreal for the Greek Freak and he’s going to have an immense year. The expectations for him are already sky high as he’s going to flirt with a triple double game-in-game-out. His draft stock right now is at early second round value, right around rank 10-14, anywhere between those spots are okay with me.
It seems like every player for the Bucks played well after the All-Star break and the Point Giannis transition. Another player who had a mini-breakout in the second half of the season is Khris Middleton. He was a sleeper last year, but nobody should be sleeping on Middleton for fantasy drafts this year. He averaged 18.8 points, shooting at a .474 from the field, which was four percent higher than his pre All-Star numbers. He also grabbed 3.9 boards, handed out 4.6 dimes, shot 1.6 threes and had 2.4 steals. The Point Giannis experiment is working out for everybody, and there’s not much reason to suspect any changes towards these kind of stats from Middleton. Since post All-Star break, Middleton was the 18th best player according to Basketball Monster, where his contribution at the steals department really hiked up his value. His Yahoo! Expert’s rank currently is at 38, but that’s below players like Otto Porter, Tobias Harris, which is ludicrous! Hiking his spot up to early 30s would be reasonable.
One player that didn’t really benefit from the transitions to Point Giannis after the All-Star break is Greg Monroe. He ended the year with fourth-round value but that’s because he had a solid start to the year. His post All-Star stats were relatively poor, averaging 12.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists along with 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks. Compared to his pre All-Star line, his minutes and touches went down resulting in a dip in points and rebounds. Monroe, aka Moose (that’s actually a pretty cool nickname), is probably not the center that Jason Kidd wants to stick with in the long run after handing him a 3-year contract worth $50 million in 2015. With block machine John Henson, and “50 19 year old” rookie, Thon Maker behind the rotation, Monroe might have some competition and potential minutes sharing with the backup centers. Moreover, with rumours of Bucks trading him away, and Marc Stein of ESPN reporting that Monroe wants be at New Orleans instead, all signs are pointing towards Monroe not wearing a Bucks jersey at the end of the season, leading to some risk involved with picking him. His Yahoo! rank is at 61 as of now, but with a center with so many risks involved and does not really contribute to blocks, he’s probably worth a late 70s or early 80s pick but I would try and stay away from him. On the other hand, you might want to give John Henson a look in deep leagues for some blocks and rebounds, and a contingency plan if Monroe does get shipped away.
The second overall pick of the 2014 NBA draft, Jabari Parker, started off the season a bit slow, since he was coming off an ACL injury that he suffered in his rookie year. However, after the rust was shaken off, he was showing steady improvement as each month went by, increasing his scoring output progressively. Although Jason Kidd shifted the primary ball handler role to Giannis after the All-Star break, he also instilled confidence in Jabari by giving him heavy minutes and the green light to shoot, which Kidd didn’t really gain credit for. He averaged 18.9 points, 6.1 rebounds 2.2 assists, to go along with 1.1 steals in 36.5 minutes per game after the All-Star break. His minutes hiked up and his attempts per game nearly doubled! During that period, Jabari was ranked 82nd according to Basketball Monster in a 9-cat league. That’s a solid 7th round in 12-team leagues. His lack of blocks and triples hinders his value even though he increase his scoring and rebounds. With one full season under his belt, the upside still remains for the third year player, and it’s reported that he’s working extremely hard on his threes. This is going to be crucial for the Bucks since Middleton is the only player from the starting line up that can shoot from range, they would need another player to be able to knock down the three, and the closest player to do that would be Parker. He’s listed at rank 67 at Yahoo! leagues right now, which I think is agreeable as of now. However, when pre-season comes, and Parker has shown he can hit a three consistently (maybe around 1 per game), his value should be bolstered then.
Just a quick note on the point guard situation for the Bucks. Jason Kidd hasn’t came out publicly and said this but I think Matthew Dellavedova is going to start over Michael Carter-Williams. This is because Giannis would be the primary ball handler in the starting unit, meaning MCW would cramp up the spacing when he’s playing off the ball. With Giannis, MCW, Jabari, and Monroe on the floor, there’s going to be some bad spacing which can jam up the offense. Defensively, Dellavedova can hold his own by contributing in toughness, feistiness, and hustle in what he lacks in length compared to Carter-Williams. With MCW coming off the bench, and leading as the second unit as the sixth man, it will be his chance to flourish in that role. Keep in mind that Jason Kidd started O.J. Mayo for quite a lot over MCW last season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dellavedova in the starting lineup come opening night. In terms of fantasy, Carter-Williams fantasy outlook is still better than Delly, with his potential to flirt with 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. He’s worth a look during the really late-rounds but ranking 96 in Yahoo! is too much of a reach. Meanwhile you can target the Australian in deep leagues for some source of assists and threes.
Follow me on @BFantasyHoops to keep up to date with news, previews and fantasy goodies! Come back tomorrow for the Atlanta Hawks, KA-KAW!
The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and you might need to do some prep work before the big draft. For the next few weeks at BFantasyHoops, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy preview right here. So far, I’ve covered the Bulls, the Cavs and the previous post was on the Pistons. This time…The Hoosier State.
Notable Additions: Jeff Teague (Atlanta), Thaddeus Young (Brooklyn), Al Jefferson (Charlotte), Aaron Brooks (Chicago), and Jeremy Evans (Utah)
Notable Subtractions: George Hill (Utah), Ian Mahinmi (Washington), Ty Lawson (Sacramento), Solomon Hill (New Orleans), and Jordan Hill (Minnesota)
In this offseason, Indiana Pacers parted ways with their longtime coach, Frank Vogel. They decided to overhaul their roster and speed things up a little bit. Thus, they decided to hire Nate McMillan (whut?) as their head coach. In the 7 years that McMillan coached for the Blazers, he wasn’t known for having a fast paced and up-tempo system. Rather he was known for his hard-nosed coaching style. However, because of the personnel that Pacers have this season, there’s no choice but to play with a faster pace, as you’ll probably see them ranked in the top-10 in pace this season, which potentially could correlate to fantasy goodies! Let’s take a look at which players can benefit the most this season!
After playing in 81 games last season and a couple more in the Olympics, Paul George has shown that the rated PG-13 injury (too soon?) he suffered is behind him, which is good news for fantasy owners or NBA fans in general. He came off the year as the 14th best player in 9-cat according to Basketball Monster, averaging 23.1 points, shooting .418 from the field, 7.0 boards, 4.1 dimes, 2.6 triples, and 1.6 steals but with 3.3 turnovers. He was required to make plays and carry the load on the offensive end, so the efficiency from the turnovers and field goal attempt is expected. This coming season, help is on the way. With new acquisitions in Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young, that’ll reduce George’s usage rate on the offensive end. Hopefully the efficiency will become more tolerable. If he can play more efficiently and lowers the turnovers a bit to ~2.5, which is reasonable since Teague would be handling the ball more, you may want to target a late first-round pick on PG-13 in a 12-man league.
Jeff Teague is having a homecoming! Bet you didn’t know he was from Indiana! Hopefully playing for his hometown would be giving him extra motivation to play better this coming season, as he disappointed quite a few owners with his play last year. Coming off a career low in minutes (28.6) since becoming a starter in the league, he averaged 15.7 points on .439 from the field, with 2.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. He also had 1.2 steals and 1.4 threes. The points, percentages, assists and steals all took a dip from the previous year Teague played in. I see his usage rate and stats sinking further down this coming season as he’s going to play with some ball dominant teammates in Monta Ellis and Paul George as well. He’s still a solid mid-round pick but keep in mind you’re not drafting him because of upside. The Yahoo! Expert’s rankings has him listed at rank 43, which is a really high reach when there’s so much depth in the point guard position. I’ll have him in the late 50’s if not early 60’s in 9-cat leagues.
Another player that the Pacers traded for is Thaddeus Young. I feel like he’s going to be rejuvenated and motivated to play ball on a winning team after losing for so long with the Nets, Wolves and Sixers. The combo-forward averaged 15.1 points on an efficient .514 from the field. He also grabbed 9.0 boards, 1.9 assists with 1.5 steals. He finished as the 40th best player in 9-cat leagues according to Basketball Monster and with the move to a competitive team, and specifically, in a fast-paced system that fits Young perfectly, there are going to be expectations for him to play well. The lack of triples and blocks, he can make it up with his efficient shooting, boards, and steals for his position. He’s a good fit if you already have blocks and threes on your team and an even better fit if you’re punting either category. Yahoo! Experts ranked him at 72, when he should be way higher. A solid fifth-sixth round pick for Young would be ideal.
In a system where Paul George is the lone scorer on the team, with minimal help, Monta Ellis went in to a situation where he can shine as the second scoring option last year. However, he finished the season leaving a bad taste in owners’ mouths. He wasn’t attempting and making as much shots than previous years. Last year he averaged 13.8 points on .427 from the field (the lowest since his rookie season) to go along with 3.3 boards and 4.7 dimes. He also had 1.1 threes and 1.9 steals in 33.7 minutes per game. His usage rate was at 21.2 percent, which was the lowest usage rate since his rookie year as well. You’d think in a faster pace team, it would fit Monta’s game better but with the additions of Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young, would he really get the ball more and hike up his usage rate? His value really comes from the steals department and he doesn’t really hurt a team in any categories but with Yahoo! ranking him at 68, above Thaddeus Young, something’s probably wrong with their drinks. He finished the year as the 72nd best player in 9-cat, and I expect that number to drop even more, and I wouldn’t touch him until the late 90s to 100s.
Larry Bird, the team president for the Pacers, emphasised the importance in the development of Myles Turner. Letting go of Ian Mahinmi and Jordan Hill is the beginning stages of that transition. The acquisition of Al Jefferson shouldn’t eat into his minutes as he’s probably signed to be the go-to-scorer for the bench unit. The rising star averaged 22.8 minutes per game in the 60 games he played. His minutes should increase up to the late 20s this year. Turner averaged 10.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks. They don’t seem much but that was already tenth-round value according to Basketball Monster in a 9-cat league. What makes Turner special is his ability to block the ball on defense and stretch the floor on offense. Don’t let the 0.1 from downtown fool you, as he has shown that he is capable of shooting from range. It was reported that Turner wants to score 15-20 points per game this coming season. That’s a little bit of a reach, as he’s only the fourth or fifth scoring option on the team, but I think a stat line of 13 points, 8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks is rather reasonable to expect. Yahoo! listed him at rank 107, below players like Mason Plumlee and Jared Sullinger just to name a couple. His upside and potential is causing his fantasy stock to shoot up as his ADP as of now is around the 100th pick range. You should expect that number to go up by October, since everyone’s riding on the Myles Turner train. There’s going to be a premium on Turner, but even if he’s drafted at late 80s pick, it’s still justifiable (I’m a big fan of Myles, just saying).
Follow me @bfantasyhoops on Twitter for more previews, updates, and fantasy goodies! Come back tomorrow for the Milwaukee Bucks preview and my take on the Greek Freak!
The fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and you might need to do some prep work before the big draft. For the next few weeks, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy preview right here at BFantasyHoops. So far, I’ve covered the Chicago Bulls, and the previous post was on the Cleveland Cavaliers. This time…The Motor City.
Detroit Pistons
Notable Additions: Jon Leuer (Phoenix), Boban Marjanovic (San Antonio), Ish Smith (Philadelphia), Ray McCallum (Memphis), and Michael Gbinije (rookie)
Notable Subtractions: Steve Blake (UFA), Anthony Tolliver (Sacramento)
There’s not that much surprise in terms of the outlook for the Pistons this coming season. The starting lineup is pretty much the same bunch as last year, and their main goal this offseason was to beef up up their bench. The core group surrounding Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond are still young and they gained some valuable experience in playing the Cavaliers in a heavily heated 4 game series in the playoffs. The potential is looking bright for the Pistons and hopefully the young players will do well for fantasy owners for this coming year. Let’s gooo!
If you’re drafting Andre Drummond, you should probably know not to look at 9-cat rankings and ADP’s. You should probably have your own set of punt-free-throw rankings on the side. He’s a stud and would probably be a top-5 pick if your league doesn’t count free throw percentages. In 9-cat, he ended the year having eleventh-round value but having said that, you probably shouldn’t take it into consideration. He averaged a beastly 16.2 points, 14.8 rebounds, along with 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks on .521 from the field. He’s in his fourth year in the NBA and has shown steady improvement year by year. If you decided to punt free throws for your team, you should probably try and pair him up with a Lebron James, Hassan Whiteside, or even Giannis Antetokounmpo, as these players near the first round aren’t really known for their free throw shooting. If you draft a James Harden with a Drummond, the value that Harden brings in free throws is wasted. We can go more in-depth with punting strategies soon. With Drummond, he should be picked around the third-round in consideration of your drafting strategy.
Reggie Jackson played his first full season as a starter for the Pistons last season and was a potential breakout star in fantasy for a lot of owners this time last year. He didn’t disappoint but he didn’t really wow anybody as well. In 9-cat leagues, he was ranked 90th on Basketball Monster’s player rankings for last season. He averaged 18.8 points on .434 from the field. He also grabbed 3.2 rebounds, handed out 6.2 dimes, to go along with 1.5 threes, 0.7 thefts and 2.8 turnovers. The stat line looks better than a rank 90th player would have but the steals department is a little disappointing for the young athletic guard. He’s a solid player to pair up with your better point guard on your team. A fifth-round pick would be solid for Reggie Jackson.
Another mid-round target you might want to consider is Tobias Harris. After being traded to the Pistons, the last 2 months, he averaged 16.6 points on .477 percent from the field, 6.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 threes, which is good enough for fourth round value in a 9-cat league. You can pencil him down for this type of stat line for next season as the Pistons are committing to stick with Harris at the 4-spot. He played 33.5 minutes per game in a Pistons jersey, and owners don’t need to worry about Jon Leuer being a threat to cut into his minutes. On ESPN’s player rankings and The Fantasy Fix, both of them listed Harris at rank 73 and 77 respectively. Personally, I have him a little bit higher, in the late-60s, above Nikola Mirotic, Jahlil Okafor, Julius Randle to name a few. Being the third option on the Pistons, specifically in SVG’s system suits Harris’ game perfectly.
A few mid-late-rounders on the Pistons that you might want to consider is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, and Stanley Johnson. Let’s start with KCP, the player with the higher upside of the three. He impressed people in his third season in the league, as he played a career high of 36.7 minutes per game, due to Jodie Meeks’ injury. He stepped it up and averaged 14.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, with 1.5 treys and 1.4 steals. According to Basketball Monster, he’s the 86th best player last season, right behind players like Will Barton and Robin Lopez. For this coming season, expect his minutes to drop a bit but still a good source of steals and triples. The Fantasy Fix has KCP at rank 115, which I believe is a little too low. He should at least be in the top-100 of your rankings.
As for Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson, the latter seems to be locked in for the starting 3-spot in the long run but Morris is probably going to start when late-October comes. They’re pretty much going to share minutes since SVG has came out publicly and said he would reduce Morris’ minutes. In 35.7 minutes per game, Morris had a line of 14.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 dimes, 1.4 triples and 0.8 steals with a .434 field goal percentage. That’s good enough for a late-round pick, and you wonder about his value if his minutes are going to drop. Stanley Johnson has the clearer upside between the two, but don’t expect a huge bump in minutes from 23.1 that he averaged last year. He also shot an abysmal .375 from the field, which caused him to not be included in the top-190 fantasy players. You can expect him to grow and his role is going to increase as he is set to be the sixth-man for the Pistons this year. If you believe in Johnson’s sophomore year improvement, you might want to take a late round-flier on him, but with the crowded wing-positions, his upside is not as high as KCP.
Follow me on @BFantasyHoops for more updates, on player news, blogs, and just NBA/fantasy goodies. Come back tomorrow for the Pacers Preview!
For the next few weeks, keep an eye out for every team’s outlook for this upcoming NBA season here or you can follow me @BFantasyHoops on Twitter for the latest update! I’ve covered the Atlantic Division, and the previous post was on the Chicago Bulls. Stay tuned here for more content! Enjoy!
Cleveland Cavaliers
Notable Additions: Mike Dunleavy (Chicago), Chris Anderson (UFA)
Notable Subtractions: Matthew Dellavedova (Milwaukee), Timofey Mozgov (Los Angeles)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s Cavaliers motto for this offseason. Having re-signed Lebron James, they look set to try and repeat as champions and bring a second Larry O’Brien trophy to “The Land”. With the added competition in the Eastern Conference, the stroll to the finals won’t be as smooth anymore. Hopefully the increase in competition would turn out better for fantasy owners. Let’s dive in on the fantasy outlook of the Cavs this season.
At this point in Lebron James’ career, the extravagant numbers game-in-game-out is probably gone. Even though you won’t see the 30-10-10 stat lines every game, you can lock him down for an automatic 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists with efficient field goal percentages, which is still pretty good and more importantly, a little underrated. He’s played a career low 35.7 minutes per game last season and it looks like the minutes are going to continue to trend down this year as well, while he’s transitioning the load to Kyrie Irving for the regular season. Lebron has mastered the art of pacing himself in the regular season to get himself steamrolling come playoff time, so you can expect him to start the season on autopilot. He’s still a late first-round pick, but you need to keep in mind that Lebron might some rest if when the Cavs are locked in for the first seed towards the end of the fantasy season. Meaning, when fantasy playoff comes, The King might be unavailable for your team, causing you to miss out on a first-round pick for that matchup. If you draft Lebron, just remember that 25, 7 and 7 is about as high as the ceiling goes for the soon-to-be 32 year old.
Kyrie Irving started his season one and a half months later than other players last year as he was plagued by a fractured knee cap that he suffered in the 2015 NBA Finals. He only played in 53 games and was clearly shaking off the rust and adjusting to his knee for the first month. He averaged 19.6 points, which was his career low since his rookie year, along with 3.0 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. Everything else also took a dip, .448 from the field compared to .468 the previous season. He shot 1.6 threes compared to the 2.1 threes that he shot in 2014-15. It’s pretty evident that it was a disappointing year for Uncle Drew and the owners who drafted him, but if you were watching the finals, he was ruthless against the regular season MVP in Stephen Curry. After getting a ring and now a gold medal, he should hit the ground running come end of October. He finished off as the 55th best player according to Basketball Monster, but his ADP is going to be way above this number. The Fantasy Fix has him at rank 32, while ESPN listed him at rank 25. I think somewhere along the middle line of the two ranks is more suitable for Kyrie, but keep in mind that peak Uncle Drew had first-round value in 2014-15, so if you’re punting assists, snipe him off.
Let’s just face it. We’re not going to see the 20-20 machine in Kevin Love anymore. Being the third option of the team will do that to you, and in exchange you get a ring and a $110 million contract. I’d say it’s pretty worth it. The front office of the Cavs are saying they’re not even considering trading Love, so the big man has a high chance of staying put in Cleveland. But hey, you never know. Kevin Love ended the year as the 39th best player, and that’s fourth-round value. He brings a lot of goodies to your fantasy team, such as 16 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.1 threes, and good free throw percentages. He also has a lot of cons that you might not want in your big man on your team, .419 from the field, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks. If you’re drafting him, you should already be punting some categories such as field goal percentages or blocks, depending on your first two picks, because that field goal percentage will be detrimental to your team. I’d have him near the sixth-round in a 9-cat instead of the fourth-fifth round on ESPN. His value will change depending on the drafting strategy you adapt to, but that’s another blog for another time.
J.R. Smith got married over the summer after winning his first chip. Congratulations to Mr. and Mrs. Smith. He still has yet to re-sign with the Cavaliers, but we’ll assume he will. He had himself a solid season, averaging 12.4 points, 2.6 threes and 1.1 steals. Those are the three categories that you should look at when it comes to Smith, as he’s not really going to contribute anything else. He’s established himself ahead of Iman Shumpert, so there’s no need to worry about the minute sharing. The problem I have with Smith is whether he has a championship hangover and would come back outta shape for the coming season. The Fantasy Fix has him at rank 164, and ESPN listed Smith at rank 113. I’m leaning towards the 110s mark, towards the ninth-tenth-rounds for Smith which is around the same ADP as last year. You might want to take a look at Shumpert if Smith does leave the Cavs as a late round pick also.
Meanwhile big man Tristan Thompson probably proved he deserved his 5-year, $82 million deal for his performance in the finals. You’re not going to expect him to be an integral part of the offense, as he’s one of those players that you won’t run a play for. Instead, he’s going to hustle and pad his stats on the boards. If you’re league has offensive rebounds, his value should be way up higher than his ADP. He came off the season averaging 7.8 points, 9.0 rebounds with 0.5 steals, and 0.6 blocks. The block department is a little disappointing but after 5 years into the NBA, we’re not expecting Thompson to be a block machine. He’s worth a late round pick if you’re in need of rebounds and a big man.
Follow me on @BFantasyHoops for more updates, on player news, blogs, and just NBA/fantasy goodies. Come back tomorrow for the Pistons Preview!
Over the coming weeks, you’re going to see every team’s fantasy outlook for this upcoming NBA season. So far, I’ve covered the five teams in the Atlantic Division, you can check it out here. And I realised that I’m exceeding my word limit. I’m going to change things up and do it team by team and try to go under 1000 words for each team. Enjoy!
The NBA season is right around the corner and it is about time for you to start thinking of the players you want to draft for your fantasy teams. It has been one of, if not the busiest offseason in the NBA. Let's check out what Chicago Bulls did during the summer and see what kind of impact it will have on players' fantasy stock for this coming year. Please keep in mind that Yahoo! rankings are not out as this blog goes live.
Chicago Bulls
Notable Additions: Dwyane Wade (Miami), Rajon Rondo (Sacramento), Robin Lopez (New York), Jerian Grant (New York), and Denzel Valentine (rookie)
Notable Subtractions: Derrick Rose (New York), Pau Gasol (San Antonio), Joakim Noah (New York), Mike Dunleavy (Cleveland)
The Bulls were one of the busiest teams this summer as they overhauled almost their entire roster. Letting their core pieces leave, such as Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, signifies a rebuilding phase for the Windy City. Now the keys to the team was given to Jimmy Butler after they shipped Rose away to New York. Butler had himself a decent year, ended up as the 15th best player on Basketball Monster’s player rankings. His all-around game is to be craved for, however, for the last three seasons, Jimmy Buckets has never played more than 70 games a season (67, 65, and 65 games respectively). Furthermore, the new acquisitions of Wade and Rondo are not known for their elite outside shooting, which causes spacing issues on paper for the Bulls. You’d expect Butler to shoot more threes next year but you can also assume that it would lower his efficiency.
Last season, Jimmy Butler had episodes of complaining about not having the ball and making plays enough while he was paired up with Rose in the backcourt. This coming season, he'll start at the small forward spot, playing alongside with two ball dominant guards in Rondo and Wade. You’d expect him to have the ball a lot less, and not in a point-forward kind of role. ESPN has him at rank 24, which is around the late-second-round, which I agree with but Wade and Rondo are not known for their durability and one injury would skyrocket Butler’s fantasy stock.
Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo, the two new all-stars that joined the Bulls, are going to have to answer a lot of critics about whether they can play on the court together. With teams in the league transitioning into spacing and outside shooting, the Bulls are doing the exact opposite. Wade made seven three pointers for the entire season for the Heat last year, and even though Rondo would make the occasional one, he’s not known for his outside shooting. Moreover, both players plus Butler, needs the ball in their hands for them to be efficient. Rondo had fifth-round value from last season, but don’t expect his assists to reach double figures again. If you’re punting threes and free throws on your team, Rondo is always a reliable source those kind of punts.
The Fantasy Fix rankings had Rondo at 61, which would be around the fifth-round in a 12-man league. Personally, that’s a bit too high, as Rondo never really played with a ball dominant guard before in his career, and specifically he has two ball dominant players. I’d draft him around late sixth-early seventh if he’s still there, depending on your team’s needs. On the other hand, Wade finished the season having eighth-round value, and The Fantasy Fix is ranking him 58th, above Kristaps Porzingis, Reggie Jackson and Marcin Gortat. Heck, I might even pick D’Angelo Russell over Wade. He’s not going to have the same amount of points (averaged 19 points last year), rebounds and assists numbers aren’t elite, and he contributes to no threes and not that many steals. His upside is not high, and the concerns about injuries for a 34 year old is real. I’d stay clear from Wade, when there’s better options at that position.
The big man the Bulls traded for, Robin Lopez, is going to be an essential part for Chicago. He had an awesome post-all-star period, and had mid-round value during that phase. He ended the season playing all 82 games for the Knicks, averaging 10.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.6 blocks at .539 from field and .795 from the line. He’ll continue to have this sort of production and as long as he runs hard down the floor, Rondo will find him for some easy points (as we all know Rondo would try and pad his assists). He’s reliable, consistent and wouldn’t hurt you in anything, which means you’ll have a bargain with him if you ended up drafting him towards the seventh-eighth rounds if you need a big. ESPN listed him at rank 124! Clearly someone is smoking something. He would shatter his ADP in ESPN drafts and you're going to end up with a steal.
With the spacing as cramped as it is right now on paper, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nikola Mirotic to start the season over Taj Gibson. His outside shooting is going to be crucial for Wade and Butler to have any driving lanes to hoop. With averages of 11.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.0 threes, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks, he’s going to play an integral part for the Bulls to bounce back this season. He had a lot of expectations on him to breakthrough last year but ended up disappointing a lot of owners. This is the reason why some might sleep on him in the draft. Coming into his third year in the NBA, hopefully he'll improve on his consistency game-in-game-out. More importantly, he’s probably the only player from the Bulls that has the green light to shoot. There is upside in Mirotic and having a seventh-round pick on him would be pretty ideal.
TL;DR
Early-Rounds: Jimmy Butler
Mid-Rounds: Rajon Rondo, Nikola Mirotic
Late Rounds: Robin Lopez, Dwyane Wade
Deep leagues: Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis, Denzel Valentine
Sleepers: Nikola Mirotic, Robin Lopez, Bobby Portis (deep-leagues)
Blog 7: Fantasy Basketball Preview - Atlantic Division
September’s here! This means that there’s only less than 2 months until the NBA season kicks off. Right about time for you to start thinking of the players you want on your fantasy team. It has been one of, if not the busiest offseason in the NBA. Let’s recap on the notable moves each team has made in this offseason and how I think it will impact players’ fantasy stock for this coming year. Let’s go!
Boston Celtics
Additions: Al Horford (Atlanta), Gerald Green (Miami), Jaylen Brown (rookie), and some rooks fighting for a roster spot.
Subtractions: Jared Sullinger (Toronto), and Evan Turner (Portland)
The four-time all-star, Al Horford, decided to wear the iconic green jerseys for this coming season. He’ll fit in with Brad Stevens’ system with his high basketball IQ, good passing skills, ability to stretch the floor and anchor the defense in the paint. He’s going to bring all-star calibre talent to the table, and at the same time he’s going to fit in nicely with the Celtics’ team chemistry. Fantasy wise, he’s going to get his usual 15 points and 7 rebounds with good percentages. But what made him a stud last year was his ability to shoot from range, averaging a three per game. Coach Stevens and the Celts are going to utilize his ability to stretch the floor and make plays for others. All signs are pointing up for his fantasy stock, as you’ll see him get drafted inside the top-20 range.
The pizza guy, Isaiah Thomas, made his first all-star appearance last year, but what was so undervalue was the fact that he played all 82 games last season (one of 18 players to accomplish this feat). With so many teams resting players with little nagging injuries, it’s rare to see a player fully fit for an 82 game season. With that in mind, he only averaged 32 minutes a game, and ranked 37th on Basketball Monster last season. The new signing of Horford would boost Thomas’ fantasy stock, as Horford is the type of player who can make others around him better. Imagine the pick and roll between the two all-stars, it’s going to be a nightmare to handle for the defenders, with both players able to shoot from the outside or finish around the rim efficiently. The addition of Horford is going to increase Thomas’ assists and his percentages and you might need to use a third or fourth round to try and grab him.
Jae Crowder was the surprising breakthrough player from last year. If you drafted him late or picked him up from the waiver wire, you’re a lucky guy and you’re probably cheekishly smiling right now. He ended the season with 3rd round value with his solid steals, threes, percentages and low turnovers. However, Horford’s shots are going to have to come from somewhere and I think this is where Crowder’s attempts is going to take a hit. Also, drafting the 3rd pick of the draft, Jaylen Brown, might also cut down his minutes from a early 30s to a late 20s kind of player. Crowder is a really good player, but it seems like Celts picked Brown for a reason and might give him and Marcus Smart some minutes to develop. He’ll still have a solid mid round value but don’t reach high for him.
Avery Bradley had a decent season last year, averaging a career high of 15.2 points. Another player who might take a hit in shot attempts because of the newly acquire Horford coming to town. Also, with Celtics really buying into the development of Marcus Smart, that might eat into Bradley’s minutes (led the team in minutes). With the loss of Evan Turner in free agency, that only opens up the minutes for Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Brown and Terry Rozier to share. Smart and Bradley are both players who’s going to be hovering in the later-rounds with Smart having more upside, but his efficiency still remains questionable (.348 from field and .253 from range). In terms of the bigs that’s pairing up with Horford, Amir Johnson is the only one that might be worth drafting. He had 10th round value last year in only 20 minutes a game. Celtics go small ball a lot, so you can do better with late-round bigs than these Celtics players.
Brooklyn Nets
Additions: Jeremy Lin (Charlotte), Luis Scola (Toronto), Greivis Vasquez (Milwaukee), Randy Foye (Oklahoma City), Trevor Booker (Utah), and a bunch of rookies and D-league players.
Subtractions: Thaddeus Young (Indiana), Jarrett Jack (Atlanta) and a lot of other players.
What can I say about the Nets? They probably have the lowest talent pool in the NBA this coming year and I don’t think it’s even close. But fantasy is not all about talent nor wins or losses. With the new coach in Kenny Atkinson, he’s going to rev up the engine and speed up the pace to make the team run (it should be noted that the Nets were the slowest team last year). With the increase of pace, this means more possessions, and that would ultimately lead to more stats! Let’s start off with Brook Lopez, who had a solid and healthy (I was shocked!) year. He finished off with late 2nd round value, and this is his second consecutive year that he played 70+ games. The stud averaged 20 points, 8 rebounds and nearly 2 blocks, with good percentages, and made every owner who passed on him sulk (especially me). Is he worth grabbing this year? Yes, but keep in mind that the fear of checking whether he’s injured every game is not going to be that fun. He might shoot more threes this year too, but I wouldn’t bet my money on an Al Horford like increase in terms of his outside range. I wish you all the BroLo owners the best of luck.
Jeremy Lin had himself a solid season playing the 6th man for the Hornets last year, but he wasn’t worth owning except for a plug and play sort of deal. He has the keys to the team now, and has the freedom to run, which ultimately fits his strong suit. In the 13 games that he started for the Hornets, he averaged 17.5 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists with nearly 2 threes a game, decent percentages at .461 from field and .825 from the charity stripes. It’s a small sample size but it shows that he’s been really improving his game year by year, especially from the Linsanity days. His field goal percentages might take a dip, and he might average nearly 3 turnovers a game, but the Nets need another scorer apart from Lopez and this is the perfect opportunity for Lin to step it up. He’s going to get to the line a lot, and has been relatively durable and healthy throughout his NBA career so he’ll make a really good impact if you’re banking on the free throws category. Personally, I like him and I think he’s a mid-late rounder with some really good upside. Just don’t get overhyped and grab him super early.
Some late-rounders that might be worth giving a little of your attention to is Bojan Bogdanovic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker. Bojan just led the Olympics in scoring and his ability to shoot from range is going to be crucial for the Nets to put points on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt with 3 threes a game this year. Hollis-Jefferson is going to see some heavy minutes in his sophomore year at the two spot. He showed glimpses of his athleticism last year but you’re not going to see a sudden increase in threes, or scoring. Rather, you might see a younger, more athletic Tony Allen type of stat lines from him. Trevor Booker never really wowed anybody when he was playing with the Jazz, as he was behind Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert in the front court rotation. He’s going to share minutes with Scola but his playstyle is much more suited to partner up with BroLo and you might see a poor man’s Tristan Thompson there, which might be worth taking a look at in deeper leagues.
New York Knicks
Additions: Derrick Rose (Chicago), Joakim Noah (Chicago), Courtney Lee (Charlotte), Brandon Jennings (Orlando), Justin Holiday (Chicago), and a handful of european rookies
Subtractions: Robin Lopez (Chicago), Jose Calderon (Chicago), Jerian Grant (Chicago), Derrick Williams (Miami), and some rotation players.
Good news! The hiring of Jeff Hornacek is going to boost the fantasy stock of Knicks’ players. For the seasons that they ran the triangle offense, they hovered around the last spot in terms of pace. Knowing Hornacek, they’re going to space the floor with shooters, speeding up the tempo of the game, and this means potential fantasy goodies! Carmelo Anthony’s upside just got a lot more brighter. We haven’t really seen Melo in an uptempo style really since his Denver days. Considering he stays healthy (he played 72 games last year, when everyone thought he’s going to shut down mid-season), he really should be picked during the 2nd round. The thing is, at the age of 32, can his knees withstand the pressure? I’m staying clear of him unless he’s still there during the 3rd round for me to grab, since there’s a new sheriff in town.
PORZINGOD!! I’m one of the lucky owners that had a chance to grab Kristaps Porzingis on one of my teams last year and boy, was he fun to own. The putbacks, the blocks, the threes. I think he shut everybody up in his first game of the NBA, especially the people who booed him when the Knicks drafted him. He’s proven that he has the potential to be a franchise caliber player. In this first season he already showed his toughness on defense, holding his ground with players bigger and stronger than he is when everyone was saying he couldn’t hold his own. He dipped a little towards the second half of the season (the rookie wall), but this year, everyone’s expecting big things from him. I’m expecting the Latvian gangbanger to have at least 15 points, 7 rebounds, 1.5 threes, and 2 blocks. It’s just a slight increase from his rookie year, but considering he has better teammates this year, he shouldn’t have to work as much. That’s still good enough for 3rd or 4th round and let me tell you, the combination of threes and blocks is gold!
The delusioned Derrick Rose (he called the Knicks a super team) silently had a decent year for the Bulls last year. He played 66 and 51 games in the last two seasons, and we’re probably never going to see the old DRose playing 70+ games from now on. He hasn’t been really efficient as well, averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, with less than one three and steal a game. You can expect him to boost that assist number up a little but he wasn’t even in the top 190 players in Basketball Monster’s player ranking last year. If you want popcorn stats towards the end of your draft, he’s your guy. Noah played 29 games, with 4.3 points, and nearly 9 rebounds in less than 22 minute a game. Safe to say, he’s clearly a downgrade from Robin Lopez, but the intangibles that he brings to the locker room is going to be valuable but that’s not really fantasy related, I would stay off him. Courtney Lee might be the newest addition that I like the most for fantasy goodies. He only averaged one three a game for the Hornets last year, but playing with Melo, Porzingis, and Rose might actually give him more space and freedom to shoot from the corner. Plus, he doesn’t really have anyone to share minutes with. I’d take a late-round flier for threes and steals from him if he’s still on the board.
Philadelphia 76ers
Additions: Ben Simmons (rookie), Joel Embiid (back from 2 years of injury), Dario Saric (rookie), Gerald Henderson (Portland), Jerryd Bayless (Milwaukee), and some D-league calibre and european players
Subtractions: Ish Smith (Detroit), Isaiah Canaan (Chicago), and Kendall Marshall (Utah)
The leading advocate of the tank train, Sixers, are finally heading towards the right direction! Congratulations on finally having the first pick of the draft, in what feels like decades of busts and disappointment. If you search up Ben Simmons summer league highlights on YouTube, you would feel excited for the 76ers and know what the fuss is all about. He’s still lacking a jump shot but it was reported that he’s working on it and making it his first priority this offseason. He’s 6’10, 240 lbs, and he’s going to be running the point guard duties for the team. You can expect a lot of stat lines flirting with triple doubles and popcorn stats, but the steals, threes, and blocks department won’t look as good. Plus the crowded front court of the 76ers really cramps up the minutes. Still too early to tell what Brett Brown is going to do, as he’s going to have to do some trial and error with his franchise player on what position he’s going to play. Drafting him around mid-late (8th-10th) round would be pretty ideal, especially if you need assists on your team but he’s probably gone by then.
Let’s talk about Jahlil Okafor, who was the leading scorer of the Sixers last season. He’s not going to get as many minutes or as many looks this coming year. Okafor is competing minutes with Nerlens Noel, Embiid, Saric, and Simmons. That’s 5 players fighting for two spots, and by the looks of things, Sixers aren’t really buying into Okafor and Noel being their building blocks for their future. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets traded mid-season, but his skills down low in the block is as smooth as silk. He brings an automatic 18 points to teams who need a low post threat. Sort of like a new look Al Jefferson. With averages of 17.5 points and 7 rebounds, he was only a 9th round value. I’d stay clear from Okafor, as the upside isn’t as high this year but he’s worth a look towards the late-rounds.
Robert “Bob” Covington had 6th round value last year. He’s going to be crucial for the Sixers to win games this coming season, as he’s probably the only threat from range in the team, maybe Saric as well. He’s going to flirt with 3 threes a game and possibly 2 steals, but the percentages (38% from field) is going to be a turnoff. Reminds you of a Trevor Ariza doesn’t he? If you don’t mind the percentages, he’s worth a mid-round grab. Meanwhile, the rookies that are not named Ben Simmons, are playing their first games in the NBA this year after being drafted years ago. Joel Embiid has impressed in his 1-on-0 workout videos, moving silky smooth for a 7’2’ big man. Showing shades of Hakeem the Dream. The Sixers won’t rush him to play heavy minutes, but the big man has potential and upside. I believe he’ll have solid stats even with 20 minutes a game. A late-round flier for him would be ideal if you need a big man. Dario Saric on the other hand, is another 6’10 do-it-all type of player. He averaged 11.8 points, 6.7 boards and 3.2 dimes during his stretch of games in the Olympics. Not dominating but he did show that he can stretch the floor and beat you off the dribble if he’s playing the 4 and post you up and score down low if he’s matched up against a smaller defender. He’s going to start off slow while he adjusts to playing in the NBA. He’s going to have his up’s and down’s as rookies tends to have in the league, but he’s worth a late-round pick for his upside.
Toronto Raptors
Additions: Jared Sullinger (Boston) and some players fighting for the final roster spot
Subtractions: Bismack Biyombo (Orlando), Luis Scola (Brooklyn), and James Johnson (Miami)
The Raptors had a surprisingly good year which exceeded a lot of people’s expectations. They made re-signing DeMar DeRozan their biggest priority to keep their core intact. DeRozan ended last year as the 48th best player according to Basketball Monster. He ended the season with 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4 assists with a steal per game. His true value comes from the free throws category, where he hits 85% on 8.4 attempts a game, sort of a James Harden lite. His teammate, Kyle Lowry, encourages him to shoot from range, but he’s only been hitting 0.6 threes per game, so if you’re punting threes on your team, his value will skyrocket up. He’s a solid pick for fourth-fifth round value.
Skinny Lowry amazed people in fantasy last year, as he ended the year with first round value. The two-time all-star’s numbers was immense, 21.2 points, 4.7 boards, 6.4 dimes, 2.1 steals and 2.8 treys in 37 minutes a game! Him and DeRozan is expected to carry the load on the offensive end again this year in a relatively stronger Eastern Conference. They were the second seed by the end of the regular season, but this year they’re going up against some tough competition in their own division with Boston making some major acquisitions. Games are going to be more competitive for The North this year, but having been to the playoffs and knowing what it takes to be successful there, they might lower Lowry’s minutes just a bit to give him some legs for the playoffs. He’ll still be good for you in an early second round pick but I think it’s a little bit of a reach if he ends up as the top 10 pick.
Is this finally the year Jonas Valanciunas breaks out (again)? It’s been the same question every year for the Lithuanian big man. He only averaged 26 minutes a game last year, which was the lowest compared to the previous two years (26.2 and 28.2). However, he had a career high of 12.8 points and 9.1 rebounds in the 60 games he played. Even though it was his career high, we all expected a little more out of the center right? This year, the center position is finally all his, no more Bismack Biyombo, meaning no need to share minutes. Unless Lucas Nogueira suddenly makes a leap, which is unlikely. I expect big things from JV this year and he should see an increase in usage rate and minutes. Then again, it’s been said for the past three years. Valanciunas ended the year with 5th round value last year, and I’m big on him this season. He would be solid for fourth round pick. If JV’s minutes don’t hike up, Dwane Casey is going to hear it from the whole of Lithuania.
DeMarre Carroll was a disappointment to the fantasy owners who used a draft pick on him. Before his big time move to the Raptors, he was Jae Crowder before Jae Crowder had his excellent season last year. But because of injuries that only made him play 26 games, he couldn’t bounce back to the Carroll that we all loved when he was in Atlanta. He’s going to play a vital part for the Raptors to be successful this year as he’s going to have the responsibility to defend the opposing team’s best scorer. If he can remain healthy next year, we’re going to see the DeMarre Carroll of old, and he might slip under a lot of people’s radar when it’s time to draft. He’s worth a seventh or eighth round pick right now, which would be a little bit higher than his ADP but peak Carroll in 2014-15 season had fifth round value, so sniping him off then is worth a risk. I’d put him in your watch list if I were you.
Season’s just around the corner! Doing your prep work and being ready now will give you an advantage of the other players that you’re going to compete with, so why not give yourself a head start! Come back soon for the previews of the remaining teams in the NBA. Meanwhile, you can also hit me up @bfantasyhoops on Twitter!
Blog 6: The NBA offseason outlook - South East Division
Atlanta Hawks - Retool or Rebuild?
The Hawks have been swept by the Cavs in back to back visits to the playoffs and now they’re heading into the offseason with their franchise player, Al Horford, heading into free agency as an unrestricted free agent. It’s obvious their main priority is to resign Horford and keep the combination of Millsap-Horford alive, since both big man can stretch the floor and play an integral part to one of the best defensive systems in the league. But how far can you actually reach in the playoffs with those two? Coming off a championship, can you really compete with the Cavs in the East?
Rumours of Jeff Teague for Nerlens Noel surfaced and that’s a clear indication of the Hawks handing the car keys to Dennis Schroder. He’s only 22 and has a ton of potential but has yet to develop a decent jump shot. With the league’s transition to threes and spacing as key parts on offense, this project might take a few years to develop. If they truly believe in the German point guard, they should blow it up and rebuild around him with players that matches his career arc. Hey look! Noel and Schroder are the same age! Go figure. Noel might be a contingency plan to Horford not re-signing but they should really make it their priority. Let’s be honest though, how good can Noel actually get? A better Biyombo? And is Schroder and Noel truly the answer? Probably not, but it’s a good positive first step to a rebuild.
With the cap projected to increase to $90 million this coming season, they should use the Horford cap space for something else and try to build for the future instead of locking in for multiple years with the ex-Florida Gator, who will be looking for one last big paycheque. Other players? Kyle Korver is 35, and he’s not the same anymore, Millsap is 31 and is still locked in until the 2017-18 season. Kent Bazemore is going to get paid, whether that’s by the Hawks or not. Atlanta would need a few trades to build for the future but this is the team that traded Joe Johnson’s mammoth of a contract to the Nets, if it’s any team that can rebuild through trades, it’s the Hawks.
Charlotte Hornets - Join the Whiteside
Since dating back to the Bobcats era in 2004, Charlotte has only made the playoffs three times. They’ve won their first ever playoff game as a franchise this year against the Heat and almost made it past the first round. Steve Clifford switched up the offense and the team focused on threes more. They won 48 games this year and was tied for 3rd in the East. They are showing signs of improvement and believe it or not, they were even fun to watch this past season.
This coming offseason, several key players for the Hornets are facing free agency. Al Jefferson, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Courtney Lee, and Jeremy Lin to name a few. Their guaranteed salary for the upcoming season is around $46 million, meaning there is around another 45 million in cap space. Jeremy Lin and Marvin Williams are going to look for a large payout and well deserved if I may add, but those two probably aren’t in Jordan’s priority list. Don’t get me wrong, they were probably the third and fourth best player on the team, and continuity is crucial in the league but if it’s not a decent and affordable price, Hornets should look elsewhere. Instead, getting Batum back should be the number one thing on their to-do list. A versatile player that can guard positions 1 through 4, and have the ability to create for others is a luxury to have in the league. If the Hornets had a healthy Batum in the playoffs, the series against the Heat could’ve went the other way.
Another take away from Buzz City’s season, no rim protector, no interior presence on the defensive end. Big Al, Spencer Hawes, Frank the Tank, Tyler Hansbrough, and Cody Zeller should be the least athletic front court in the NBA (and like I said before, the whitest frontcourt in the NBA). If they can use the cap space to cop a shot blocker (aka Hassan Whiteside), that would do plenty to their team. Offer him the max if you can, he’s a legit player that can change a team’s outlook, especially if his free throws gets going like towards the end of last season. Most importantly, Kemba Walker (26), Whiteside (27), and Batum (27) are around the same age! Teams have been focusing on getting their core group of players around the same age, to hopefully have the same peak years in their careers together. With the trio of Kemba, Whiteside and Batum, they would certainly be creating a lot of buzz in the East.
Miami Heat - Bosh can’t handle the Heat?
The biggest question for the Heat this offseason is the whole Chris Bosh conundrum. Have we seen the last game of Bosh’s career already? Blood clots are very serious, especially this is a recurrence for Bosh as well. You know what the sad thing is? Bosh was playing the best ball since his Raptor days, but ironically, the Heat were playing much better without Bosh in the lineup. The Heat went small with Luol Deng at the 4 and they used their quickness and spacing to capitalise on teams. The Heat even took the Raptors to 7 games in the Eastern Semi Finals, and the series was only differentiated by a basket or two (especially the Kyle Lowry buzzer beater that pushed for overtime). This was the first time Deng has played small ball 4 in his career, and I can see lots of teams eyeing for Deng for that position this offseason as his free agency is looming.
In terms of the cap space situation for the Heat, I think only the Godfather himself, Pat Riley, knows how to handle the situation. Bosh is locked in for $23million, and no one knows if he’s playing another game for the Heat. Are they going to use the Disabled Player Exception? Even if the cap space is taking a leap this coming season, Heat still has to re-sign Dwyane Wade and Whiteside as their priorities. The Heat voiced out that they want to re-sign Whiteside, but is he worth the max? Is Wade going to take a paycut to help them out? Knowing Riley, he’ll always have backup plans, and facing this situation, they’re probably assuming Bosh will not return and if he does, they’ll see it as a plus.
One of the tricks I’m sure Riley has up his sleeve is recruiting Kevin Durant. Financially, I don’t know how this would work out with Whiteside and Wade as their priorities. But if Durant decides to stay or go to another team, I can only assume Heat stays with its original roster by re-signing their veteran players with decent contracts and maxing out Whiteside. A more positive note would be the emergence of their rookies, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson who had hell of a rookie season. All in all, Miami’s season looms around Bosh’s situation and as a fan of the game, I hope he returns as Miami faces an interesting albeit tricky offseason.
Orlando Magic - Do you believe in Magic?
The Magic’s season was a bit disappointing to say the least. They started off the season well, having a 19-13 record, but somehow s*** the fan and the once potential playoff team under Scott Skiles became another tanking-but-not-really team. They had some clearing cap space moves, such as the Tobias Harris trade for Brandon Jennings and Ersan Illyasova (both who’s not a part of their guaranteed salary entering next season as of now). The starting 3 spot is now up for grabs for Evan Fournier (assuming the Magic is going to match any offers for Fournier), or the development of Mario Hezonja. They also have 4 starters locked into contracts for the upcoming year with Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Nik Vucevic.
This coming season, the newly appointed head coach, Frank Vogel, looks to improve on their record and should instill his own philosophy onto the team. He’s probably looking forward and can’t wait for the training camp to begin already, with the potential that he has on hand. What will Coach Vogel bring? A brand of toughness on defense and the ability to adapt to his roster. He went from a slow-post up oriented team to a fast paced-small ball team in Indiana. He overachieved with teams that didn’t actually look good on paper. He made Lance Stephenson look like a legit good NBA player. He made the best out of Roy Hibbert and made him into a runners-up for defensive player of the year (yes, the same Roy Hibbert who’s on the Lakers).
Vogel is going to do big things in Orlando, if the front office allows it. They’re probably going to match offers for Fournier and DeWayne Dedmon, whilst bringing back Jason Smith. Assuming Ersan’s gone too, they’re projected to have around 30-40 million in cap space. The 4 starting players are locked in until 2017-18 season at least. They can use the cap space to make acquisitions, who doesn’t want to live next to Disney World with no State Income Tax? It’s an attractive location, with good weather and the outlook of the team is looking bright. What the Magic needs to do is to make sure they don’t spend big and lock in a player for multiple years onto their cap and not match the career arc of their core group of guys now (I’m looking at you Dwight). Let’s just hope they don’t mortgage their future to be competitive now.
Washington Wizards - Beal or No Beal?
In my fantasy season this year, I picked Bradley Beal onto my team. Oh god was it the biggest mistake this year? It’s not a good sign when you’re 22 and have four stress fracture injuries that costs you a lot of games! He’s young, but his legs are literally made of glass. Everyone was looking forward to Beal’s emergence (like C.J. McCollum) this year, mainly because of his outstanding performance in the playoffs in 2014-15. He did post his career high of 17.3 ppg, but missing out on nearly 30 games, that costs Wizards the playoffs this year. However, with the cap increasing this summer, many teams in the NBA will gamble on the third overall pick if the Wizards decides to part ways with him. There’s also news on the Wizards offering him the 5-year max contract worth about $22 million (don’t do it!!!).
The Wizards also fired Randy Wittman after a disappointing record of 41-41 and missing the playoffs. Scott Brooks was brought in to help the Wizards escape from the middle of the pack and more importantly, the “Kevin Durant Free-Agent-Wining-and-Dining Palooza”. Does Durant want to go back to his previous coach? Who knows, but they definitely have a good relationship with one another. One might think that Brooks was hired so they have a better shot at Durant this summer, but if that fails, what would Brooks bring to the table instead? This topic’s up for debate as he’s only coached Russell Westbrook and Durant in his career, arguably two of the top five players in the league. The OKC offense was basic, and one of the most predictable offense in the league, but if you have Westbrook and Durant, do you really need to change it up? His rotations were criticized, as he would never stagnate the minutes between Russ and KD, but it was the players who wanted to play out the entire first quarter because it helps them get into better rhythm. Is Brooks a top 5 coach in the league? No, but he’s not the worst and with teams dropping coaches like they’re flies, you can’t find a coach with decent track record and a connection to KD.
So what if Durant doesn’t come? Well, all the trades and transactions did to prepare for this summer is probably wasted. Ernie Grunfeld would probably lose his job as the GM. They need back up plans, plans to build around John Wall and probably Beal as well. Otto Porter showed signs of development this past season, as three and D players are hard to come by now. Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat are locked in as 4 and 5. Sticking to the same core of starters is probably the realistic way of moving on if KD is not available but realistically, how far can it get them?
Check back here for other offseason discussions and follow me @BFantasyHoops on Twitter. Have a good one!
Blog 5: Are projected stat lines reliable in fantasy?
This year for fantasy, I've subscribed to Rotoworld's season pass. Meaning I get exclusive content that normal readers don't get unless they pay for it. What do you get in the exclusive stuff? Well you get their pre-season rankings for players, their expert's mock draft results, projections, tons of daily articles and some other functions which I have no idea about. One specific area that I want to focus on is the preseason projections for players this year. Since the fantasy season is over (for a while now), we can look back and compare the projection stats for 2015-16 from Rotoworld with their actual stat line. Hopefully by doing this, we can see whether they're accurate with these 'predictions' or not and how they projected some of the breakout players this year. How I'm going to do this is by selecting the players average ranking and compare it to their pre-season ranking, all according to Yahoo!. If their actual ranking is higher than their pre-season ranking by at least 20 places then I considered them as 'break out players'. For example, Player A (pre-season ranking)(actual ranking).
Whiteside was a beast the previous year and was definitely the waiver-wire pick up of the 2014-15 season. He came out of the gate this year rejecting every shot, averaging nearly 5 blocks a game during the month of November. It wasn't sustainable like Stephen Curry's 5 threes a game, but averaging 3.7 swats for the year is the highest since the NBA introduced the "defensive three seconds violation" in the 2001-02 season (and that's saying something). The projection was solid, but it overestimated the amount of touches and shot attempts Whiteside would have this year. His field goal attempt was only at single digits, before Chris Bosh suffered from blood clots and sat out in February. Only then did his attempts reach up to 10 shots per game. Also, ever since Bosh was out, Whiteside suddenly decided he knew how to shoot from the line. He hovered around 50ish% then post All-Star, he managed to shoot 75% from the charity stripe. From February to April, he skyrocketed up through the rankings and officially ended as the third best player according to Yahoo! No one could've predicted his sudden improvement in free throws but good for him and if Whiteside can consistently knock them down, he can make an argument to be a top 5 pick next year.
Skinny Lowry was actually a thing this year. He got into the best shape in his entire career and had his best season yet. Take a look at his transformation here (sounded like one of those weight watchers advertisement). It took him 10 years in his professional career to care about his health and diet, but better late than never right? As a result, he made lots of team owners a happy man/woman. He had his most efficient shooting season, and dropped a career high in points. The projected line was good enough for a late second round, but the improvement in Lowry's performance made him a first round material, hovering around top 5 the whole season. No one could've predicted his 10th year bump in his career or the improvement in the Raptors this season, but Skinny Lowry carried the North to the Eastern Conference Finals. So to sum up, Rotoworld underestimated the benefit of weight loss in a NBA player (more examples? Marvin Williams).
Draymond should've been in All-NBA First Team over DeAndre Jordan. Period. I don't like him personally and not really a big fan of his leg kicking/tripping/taunting plays but this year was a break out year for him and this leads to the best team in regular season history. He has the ability to bring the ball up and make plays at the top of the key, which allows Curry and Klay Thompson to run around screens and play off-the-ball. He was basically the second, if not the main, playmaker on their team. Watching Draymond in last year's playoff, we knew he could make plays for his teammates, but we didn't expect him to consistently drop dimes in each and every regular season game that he played (he missed 1). The 7.4 assists a game was good for 7th in the league and remember he's a power forward and even a center sometimes. His shot selection became much better, hence his career high in FG%, but his increase in playmaking made his turnovers a bit too high. The projected line for his FG%, assists, and turnovers were off by miles but everything else was pretty much spot on.
Rotoworld had Kemba at rank 55 and Yahoo! had him at 56 going forward. Rotoworld's projected line isn't too different than his actual stats this year, but the difference in ranking with 55 from Rotoworld, and his actual ranking, 17, is quite a big difference. I'm being a little skeptical here so I'm coming up with some conspiracy but I'm thinking they changed up the projected lines in the middle of the season so they don't seem too far off but that's just my two cents. Back to Kemba, he had his best year yet, bringing the Hornets to the 6th seed in the playoffs, and running an entertaining 4-out-1-in system. Here's to hoping they keep the team together and maybe even a free agent acquisition (Dwight Howard maybe?) because that team is hella fun to watch! Coach Clifford should've gotten more buzz for Coach of the Year (pun intended), as he changed the entire offensive system to one of the best three-point shooting team in the league, and got decent production from the whitest NBA frontcourt line up (Hawes, Zeller, Kaminsky, and Hansbrough).
I knew KAT was good, but not THAT good. If you told me to snipe him off in the 3rd round, I wouldn't have done it, not that ballsy. I mean he's still a rookie right? Wrong! he's not just a rookie, he's a stud. I have the big KAT in one of my teams and he's just such a joy to own, and I ended up winning that 16 man league this year! The Timberwolves found a gem in KAT, and they're pretty much set for the next decade if Thibs manage it well. If you ask me to start a franchise today, KAT is heavily considered, way over Anthony Davis. Fantasy wise? Just get ready to start drafting him in the top 5 of next year. You already know he's going to get heavy minutes with Thibs on board. Let's just hope the coach doesn't run him to the ground, and that goes along with Andrew Wiggins. Anyways, Towns exceeded the projected line by quite a lot, and I have a feeling you'll see him have a 20-10 with 2 blocks next year. I love this guy!!
These are just 5 players that exceeded their pre-season rankings, there's a ton more like C.J. McCollum, but I'm already touching 1400 words right now. If the projected lines were not tampered with, they are relatively accurate. You can get a brief idea of where a player's career trend or arch is heading towards. For example, if it was a 10th year veteran, it's kind of an anomaly to have a break out year (i.e. Kyle Lowry) but external factors (such as weight loss?) can change the whole picture. If you ever do use it, don't heavily rely on it. Trust your gut, get opinions, second opinions, and trust your gut some more and you'll be finding yourself with some gems.
Follow me on @BFantasyHoops for more updates, on player news, blogs, and just NBA/fantasy goodies. Until next time!
The title of the blog says it all. The East this year has just been not that entertaining to watch in the playoffs. Yes, the Raptors had two game 7s and won both of them, they had multiple overtime games against the Heat. The Cavs broke the record for most 3s in a playoff game and drowned the Hawks. Plus there were many matchups in the East that were very competitive. But I still find myself more eager to watch teams on the opposite coast go head to head, whether that’s in the first round or in the Western Conference Finals.
Let me give you an example. I use the NBA league pass international version, where there’s a a few seconds minutes delay, to watch the games. When I’m watching the playoff games in the West, I would try and avoid Twitter to prevent spoiling anything about the game. However, in a must win Game 2 for the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals, I found myself switching tabs, looking at Twitter, Reddit and other sites, whilst the game is still on. Maybe I’m just not that die hard of a fan, or maybe the Cavs have actually no real competition and they’re just steamrolling through to the finals.
Before the season even started, we assumed that LeBron James and the Cavs were going to book their place in the finals and it’s looking inevitable right now. Because of this predictable assumption, it’s taken away the excitement of the fans. I mean there are many factors that affect a fan’s decision on whether a game is watchable or not but this is essentially the most important one. Whether the game is really right midway through the 2nd quarter, you somehow know the Cavaliers are going to win the series.
Over in the West, they have 2 of the greatest regular season teams ever in the playoffs this year. Sadly, one of them was taken down by the unpredictable Oklahoma City Thunder. We had a finals-like matchup with the Thunder triumphing over the Spurs. These two teams going head-to-head should attract the fans watching just by the sheer popularity of the players and having 3 of the top 5 players in the league in this matchup. However, on the other end of the Western Semi-finals, you take a look at the Blazers, a young team with no all-stars, lost 4 of their 5 starters at the beginning of the season, they took the defending champs to 5 very competitive and entertaining games. The series went 5 games but it was the closest 5 game series I’ve seen in a while, if ever. More so, I can strongly say that it’s been as entertaining, if not more, than the Thunder-Spurs series.
What I’m trying to emphasise is that the East is just not as entertaining, fun and watchable in the playoffs compared to the West. Personally, I think it’s mainly because they’re just not as good. I’m sorry, but it’s true. It’s been true for quite some years now. Take a look at this stat: in 17 years, the head-to-head competition between the two conferences in the regular season, the West has beaten the East 16 times. Basically, Team West has beaten Team East 16 times out of 17. That’s insane. Even though the East did start chipping away the unbalance between the two conferences this year, and there are no eight 50-win teams in the West anymore, but the NBA is still being dominated by the top teams in the West.
Remember the times when the Heat were the Heatles and were having a rough time against the Pacers, or during the late 2000s, when the East had the Celtics, Magic, and the Cavs fighting for the spot in the finals? This year? It’s the Cavs and the iso-Raptors featuring “The Trash Bros” and it’s looking like a sweep. No offence to Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan (can you believe I had to capitalise the ’M’ and the ‘R’?), they straight up balled this year but playoffs is a different monster and this year the Cavs have no real competition, no struggle, just going to autopilot their way through.
The Cavs smooth journey to the finals is an understatement of how flawed the format of the playoffs currently is. The Cavs plus the Thunder/Warriors may not be the best two teams standing in the NBA. If anything, the playoffs format should changed to the best 16 teams, instead of segregating the two conferences. The best team should be rewarded for their hard work in the regular season. Can you imagine the semi finals consisting Warriors, Thunder, Cavaliers, and possibly the Spurs and how exciting this would be? How many of you would want that to happen? Who cares about the players traveling long distances? The players all fly in G6’s or chartered planes with really good seats to make their experience more enjoyable and comfortable! It’s not like they’re still traveling on team buses like in the old days, that’s why divisions and conferences were set up when they can’t go on long ass road trips every day.
The NBA should heavily consider this proposal and it’s definitely been talked about within the league. But they should really consider the impact it’ll have on attracting more viewers to watch the game. I’m sure ESPN’s rating on the Eastern Conference Finals this year cannot be compared to the TNT and Turner Sports’ rating for the Western Conference Finals. If its Spurs vs Cavs, Thunder vs Warriors, everyone wins. The league, broadcast networks, and most importantly, the fans.
Let me know what you think, or hit me up @BFantasyHoops on Twitter.
This year, I’ve joined three leagues. Including a 12-team h2h, 16-team h2h, and an auction draft 12-team roto league. Now I mainly prioritise my attention on the 12-team h2h since I’ve put the most money into this league and most of them are my friends. However, I’m not doing that well in this league, ranking 8th as of today. Thus, I’m going to vent my frustration here but at the same time, teach you a thing or two of what to do or not to do and also make it entertaining enough for you to read.
First, let’s look at the league format - a Yahoo! 12-team h2h with 8 playoff spots out of 12 (yes, technically I’m still making the cut) and 14 players on the roster (1 extra Util spot) with a snake draft. The extra roster spot makes it a little bit deeper than a normal 12-team league, so yes the roster is a bit deep.
My record so far is 80-80-2, barely staying alive in the playoff race. Now let’s look at my team as of today. Note: there are only 4 remaining players that I drafted. Everyone else were either traded for or picked up from the waiver.
Guards: Kyrie Irving, Victor Oladipo, Bradley Beal, Shelvin Mack
Wings: Kawhi Leonard, Jae Crowder, Wesley Matthews, Iman Shumpert
Bigs: Rudy Gobert, Gorgui Dieng, Kristaps Porzingis, Robin Lopez, Myles Turner, Jonas Valanciunas
Let’s first dive into the trades I did this season, starting with Kawhi. During mid-December, I traded my Damian Lillard (drafted 10th) and Marvin Williams for Kawhi and Joe Johnson (dropped him straight away). I was big on Williams, and when I say big, I meant I bought the whole bullshit of him losing 15 pounds to get in shape for his contract year. Also, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was out, meaning Williams could play either the 3 or the 4, especially how the Hornets were playing 4 shooters with a big down low. In today’s NBA, Williams’ role is going to be worth a lot of money and he’s going to get himself paid (keep cashing ‘em cheques). However, bible, I abso-fricking-lutely did not see him sustaining his value for the entire rigorous NBA season. Basketball Monster ranked him at round 4!! If you asked me on the day the trade was made, I would’ve said I won the trade, but seeing Williams’ season and now Dame’s recent performances, I can’t help but feel that I lost the trade. Keep in mind it’s a 2 for Kawhi and a free agent.
Now the second trade that I did was also during December and it involved Uncle Drew. I drafted Jeff Teague in round 3, and I was big on him…to an extent. I definitely thought he was going to be better than Mike Conley this year but they’ve been equally bad. So I said adiois and paired him up with Ryan Anderson to trade for Kyrie and Matthews. Kyrie was still injured and I still had to stash him for a couple of weeks (I dived deeper with the stashes I did this year later on). And Matthews has been utter garbage for the first month of the season, he’s still not good now, only returning 9th round value for the year. But by looking at the upside alone that Kyrie has, I think I have a slight edge in this trade (screw Rotoworld and the word upside).
On January 3rd of 2016, I traded Jordan Clarkson for Dipo. This was a theft, not to a point where it’s vetoable though right? Let me explain. Dipo has been in Coach Skiles’ doghouse for 2 months and change. That’s roughly 30 games, nearly half the NBA season. I bought low, and he sold. I took advantage of the frustration of being a Dipo owner and I cashed in. The reason why I got slack for this trade was because Dipo came out of the doghouse on January 4th. Yes, that is one day later after the trade was made. Mind you, there were no news on Dipo’s resurgence and how he was coming back, but again the word upside was causing a stir and people believed he will bounce back (you were right).
Mid-January, yes it was a busy 2 months for me, I traded my Nicolas Batum for his Crowder. I loved Crowder and he just compliments Kawhi so well, thus I gave up the only and remaining source of assists in my team for him. I started punting assists and I thought it’s a fair trade, it’s good for my team and watching Crowder compete everyday on that Boston team is just really entertaining.
The players that I originally drafted were Gobert, Beal, Porzingod, and JV. Dieng I picked up from the waiver wire after someone became impatient with him (he’s been rock solid). Myles Turner was picked up after Ian Mahinimi suffered a lot of left leg injuries in that month of January and Coach Vogel gave him a chance and he took it. Mack was picked up because I was stupid enough to drop Bazemore when he had that horrible month of February, and Shumpert is just a streaming spot.
So after all these transactions, pick ups and drops, my team on paper actually isn’t that bad to a point where I’m barely making playoffs but because of the INJURIES that happened to my players, it a took a huge toll on my team. It first started with The Stifle Tower collapsing for 6 weeks, Jonas was out for 5 weeks, and frigging Beal (how did I not get the memo that he was injury prone?) out for day-to-day 5 weeks. After all these injuries that overlapped with one another during the period of November until January, I said screw it and piled on another injured player. Welcome Uncle Drew. I went from 2nd place in my league, dropping to 10th in a span of 2 months and here I am, slowly crawling my way back up hoping I can still make it. But there are a few things I learnt about fantasy this year that I wanted to share with you after this long rant.
It’s a long ass season - stashing at the start of the season or maybe a month or two into it is a reasonable move if the upside is that irresistible. As long as you’re confident that it’ll pay off then you should go for it and not half ass it.
Injury prone players are injury prone. It’s not a fluke (BroLo, why are you still healthy?). Remember at the start of the season where everyone was big on C.J. McCollum. Well I saw Beal as the second best thing when he was gone, and he was coming off an amazing playoff run. I bought it.
But most importantly, be patient with your players at the start of the season. I picked up Dieng after a few weeks into the season, where an impatient owner dropped him since he was barely getting any minutes. Even if Rotoworld or other fantasy experts tell you to give up on him, just be patient and only do it if there’s a really good pick up that is worth dropping the potential of 'what could’ve been’
I hope I shared a thing or two that would help you for your fantasy careers, and hopefully you’re comfortably in the playoffs and not biting tooth and nail like me. It’s frigging stressful to be at the border. Anyways, follow me on @BFantasyHoops for more updates, on player news, blogs, and just fantasy goodies. Until next time!
Now that the fantasy season is coming to a near, let’s take a look back at the studs and the duds of this season. Starting with the best player in fantasy this year, you’ve guessed it…Stephen Curry.
With averages of 30.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.1 steals with 5.1 threes, you’ll be killing yourself if you drafted Anthony Davis instead of him. Did I mention he’s also shooting above 50% from the field and 90% from the line? I don’t own him in any leagues this year and I should’ve used $91 for him in my auction draft. With Curry on your team, you should be making playoffs and praying that Coach Kerr doesn’t rest him during then. Looking forward to next season, I’ll be drafting him with my top pick for sure and it’s not even close, even if you make a case for Durant or Kawhi.
The player that caught me with my pants on the ground is none other than Boston’s Jae Crowder. If you drafted or picked him up, well done to you sir. Yahoo! had him at 132, that’s round 11 if you’re in a 12 teamer. He’s now ranked 21 in a 9-cat league with averages of 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 threes, and 1.8 steals with only 1.2 turnovers. He’s a better, more consistent Trevor Ariza and Crowder’s making everyone that passed on him look silly. And when I say everyone, that’s including the Dallas Mavericks, who gave up Crowder and a first round draft pick for Rajon Rondo. Honorable mentions go to Draymond Green, Will Barton, Hassan Whiteside, Kemba, and Brook Lopez (just because he’s been healthy this season).
For the most disappointing player this year, it’s up for debates. We can go with injured players, or players who just never lived up to their ADP but having drafted Danny Green this season, I can tell you he’s been a blast to own heads and shoulders above anyone as the most frustrating player to own this year. He was hella hyped up from fantasy experts and I bought the hype. The threes, steals, and blocks were just too irresistible, but averaging 7.4 points, 4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 threes and shooting 38% field goal just won’t cut it. Thus, I dropped him on January 21st and never looked back. Even though it seems like he’s making his way back to his groove since the start of 2016, in reality, he’s been bad whilst averaging 6.5 points, 1.3 steals, 1.1 swats, with less than one three a game, and shooting at 37% post All-Star. If you’re in a 12 team league, just drop him already and join the club! You’ll be less stressed, frustrated and be able to live a happy life.
Anyways, this is just my own take, let me know who’s been good or bad for you by tweeting at me @BFantasyHoops or leaving comment here. Until next time!
Welcome to my first ever blog! Now that you’re here, I want to tell you all about me and what I’m planning to do on this page. First, my name is Brian Fan and I’ve played fantasy basketball on Yahoo! since 2008. So you can call me an 8 year vet. Been in some highly competitive leagues, was a back-to-back winner in a 12 team h2h. Competed in leagues with some money involved as well as playing in roto, auction drafts, and all the different kinds of form of fantasy. And of course, I’ve had the occasional busts in some leagues. You can check out my player history here. I’m also a 22 year old guy, working right now full time. Been a Spurs fan since 1999, and still dreading the day that Duncan announces his retirement (it’s soon, I know).
As for this site, well I’m planning to do some posts about the weekly happenings in the world of fantasy basketball, or talk about how Stephen Curry made people who drafted Anthony Davis look silly. Occasional rants here and there as well, and I’ll drop by /r/fantasybball/ and see how the community is going.
Now for my long term plan, I’m hoping to record podcasts before next season starts, which is going to be about draft strategies and giving people tips and tricks for the new comers and probably debate about whether Karl Anthony Towns is going to be a top 5 pick or not with some occasional guests.
Finally, you can follow my twitter here @BFantasyHoops. You can ask me any questions about your team, and I’ll be glad to help you out. Also I’ll be updating player’s status, studs ‘n’ duds and mainly going crazy about Hassan Whiteside’s triple double with blocks. For the last 5 weeks of the fantasy basketball season, I hope you’re all doing well and let’s get started!
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