#system 1 thinking

[isayeed-blog]

The West's Taliban hysterics: is it really that bad?

The Western audience (mostly, but clearly not everyone) are what behavioral economists call System 1 thinkers: intuitive, knee jerk....System 2 thinking is rare, and has to be cultivated. Looking at the big picture, the details, the stats, and so on requires a different mindset. Unfortunately, these System 1 thinkers are voters in the richest and most powerful countries in the world. Be very afraid. 

[razumny]

Challenging statements made under System 1 thinking

Challenging statements made under System 1 thinking

Last week, I wrote about the cognitive dissonance often encountered in risk estimation. Just after writing that post, I came across this photo, which had a few comments that I would like to comment on:

First off, assigning numerical value to letters is a well-known method, known as gematria. It has been used for pseudo-science for ages. It is first order hokum, but can be interesting, not to…

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[razumny]

Risk estimation: Cognitive dissonance

Risk estimation: Cognitive dissonance

If there is one thing that people are notoriously bad at, it is estimating risk. There is nothing new about this. People are more afraid of being killed in a terrorist attack than in a traffic accident, despite the odds being significantly higher for the latter. One of the many reasons for this is the fact that news coverage impacts the perceived risk – and there can be little doubt that, due to…

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