#tail risk

[markpilip]

Yes to “No” “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.”      Warren Buffett Focus on your strategy. And win.

[evanvanness]

Finding tail risk where you don't expect it

I've heard it said that immigration is an entrepreneurial act.  I agree with that.  But the downside is that most entrepreneurs fail.  I don't think most immigrants to America fail -- quite the contrary.  But clearly, some do fail.  Like MS13 or the Boston Bomber Tsaernevs. 

The link is the personal story of how a WSJ reporter got to know the family when it arrived in America.  It's a heartbreaking story but well worth reading and pondering.

[arjun999]

What is a black swan?

Fixed Income Academy: We Speak Bond, Do You? | Municipal Finance Today.

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[infoterrorism]

Kyle Bass on US Default Risk: “There Is No Way To Protect Yourself If US Treasuries Default!”

http://dlvr.it/46T12g

[underpaidgenius]

Sandy illustrates a major reason economists see climate change as dangerous: its ‘tail risk.’ Tail risks, or small probabilities of extreme outcomes, have become a major focus of recent research and discussion on the environment. Sandy was the quintessential ‘tail event.’ […] The combination of risk aversion and tail uncertainties strengthen the case for action, as many economists now contend. The more in the dark we are about climate-change tail risk, the more prudent we should be, and the more pre-emptory our policy response should be. Any policy that can reduce the probability or cost of catastrophe is disproportionately valuable because of risk aversion.

- Evan Soltas, Hurricane Sandy's Dangerous Tail via Bloomberg

Must read. Quotes Martin Weitzman, William Nordhaus, and Richard Tol, who concur that even with small chance of large climate change downside -- the tail risk -- we should take immediate and significant actions to counter climate change.

Will our leaders listen?