#tailrisk

[ennovance]

𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐭𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞, 𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤‑𝐎𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐍𝐨 𝐋𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬?

Ex‑liq <0 and accelerating → 3–6m curve‑flattening impulse. 10s30s → real FFR > HLW neutral ahead. 10y1m OIS ↑, terminal ↑ faster → neutral‑gap → 0 (max tightening). Global hike diffusion ↓, futures diffusion ↑ → more tightening queued. Leading mix → 10y real ↑ in 3–4m. SB‑ratio >95th pctile → mean‑reversion drag. Net equity supply >0 (first since ’21). Retail prints #2 all‑time ETF inflow into a liquidity downcycle.

#riskarb #tailrisk #M2 @ennovance

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2068853531138785661?s=46

[ennovance]

Is Wall Street flying blind—high on history, short on memory?

Markets are fixated on recent trends, with bond yields seen as high and stock buying at record levels accepted as smart strategy—despite mounting fiscal concerns. This “short memory” risks misjudging structural shifts, like a potential return to 1960s-style #inflation. #Investors may be clinging to post-2009 narratives that no longer fit today’s reality.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/1926099359550034174?s=46

#RiskArb #HedgeFund #Tailrisk #investor @ennovance

ht Apollo/FT