Jun 22
𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐭𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞, 𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤‑𝐎𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐍𝐨 𝐋𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬?
Ex‑liq <0 and accelerating → 3–6m curve‑flattening impulse. 10s30s → real FFR > HLW neutral ahead. 10y1m OIS ↑, terminal ↑ faster → neutral‑gap → 0 (max tightening). Global hike diffusion ↓, futures diffusion ↑ → more tightening queued. Leading mix → 10y real ↑ in 3–4m. SB‑ratio >95th pctile → mean‑reversion drag. Net equity supply >0 (first since ’21). Retail prints #2 all‑time ETF inflow into a liquidity downcycle.
#riskarb #tailrisk #M2 @ennovance
https://x.com/mohossain/status/2068853531138785661?s=46