NEW TERROR THREATS AGAINST SOCHI 2014 WINTER OLYMPICS
Today, January 7, on Shepard Smith Reports on Fox News, I further discussed the terror threats against Sochi 2014 with Harris Faulkner filling in for Shep. Check out the video by clicking here.
UNDERSTANDING HOW RUSSIA FIGHTS TERROR VS THE US
The 9/11 operatives carried out a mission that was focused on massive disruption on a global scale, which is why they chose that specific type of attack. In contrast, the Russian Islamic Separatist are attempting to cause strategic REGIONAL change in the Dagestan / Chechnya region of Russia.
This is an important detail because in order to drive the point home enough to make Russia change, the attacks must be big enough or deadly enough to make the major world governments react and put pressure on Putin. While it is doubtful Russia will ever bend to pressure, gaining this understanding of what the strategic goals are for these terrorist gives us a better understanding of the tactical operations they could potentially carry out.
Russia confronts these issues in a much different fashion than the US, as they are not bound by the same constitutional rights afforded to civilians (and terrorists) as we are.
Russian officials are ruthless in their anti-terror campaign, which is largely carried out in secrecy with little information sharing to the media or other world governments. This is a huge problem for an event like Sochi2014 as the visiting countries are largely left in the dark as to the true nature and size of the threat. Although the US has a system of information collection that spans worldwide, we can see the results of Russia’s unwillingness to communicate in the Boston Bombing where the combination of what we knew and what Russia knew was never connected.
Although I’m not totally against how Russia is able to confront known terrorist in their country, it does cause alarm when such a large event is being hosted in their country within 300 miles of a major terrorist hub. It would be about the same problem as if the Summer Olympics were being held on the Afghanistan, Pakistan boarder…
It is very important to realize that Russia suffers the same “smoke and mirror” problem as the rest of the world when facing terrorism. They believe behind the scenes efforts can be carried out in a 70% reactive manner while creating an illusion of complete safety and comfort for the public to see. They believe this will make everything ok. Even the International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach said today that "You can see if you speak with the athletes in the Olympic village they all feel very comfortable that the atmosphere is very good in the village and I'm absolutely sure this Olympic atmosphere will spill over from the Olympic village to the audience and the games." He obviously doesn’t understand what unconventional warfare is all about, which is what we are dealing with when it comes to Fundamental Islamic Terrorists.
UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE AND HOW IT WORKS
Unconventional warfare is practiced by terrorists and special operations alike, although the motivation and rules of engagement are different with the US Special Forces community having much less freedom to operate.
Lets break unconventional warfare down into four categories for simplicity sake.
Getting the biggest “bang for the buck” in every attack
a. Understanding an enemies weaknesses
b. Exploiting those weaknesses
c. Unlimited in time and scope of attack.
i. It is limited by the attackers imagination and access
4. Carry out tactical attacks to effect the strategic outcome
Likewise, civilians attending or participating the Sochi2014 games should also take a similar stance. The Israeli population lives with this mindset, and what you see there is an example of a calm, aware population that is not surprised by an attack because they are mentally prepared for it and have thought out the threat that surrounds them.
I would be very aware of behaviors (not race, color, or sex).
As we have seen time and time again, terrorism security is quite often made up of smoke and mirrors. Airports and large special events are absolutely the biggest violators of this problem even after 9/11.
As I have been publically stating, I give the Sochi games a 60% chance of being attacked themselves, but I would venture to say there is about a 98% chance there will be an attack in the next three weeks somewhere other than the Olympic compound and games themselves, but still relating to Sochi. The motivation by these terrorists is absolutely real, whether or not they have the access to carry them out is where I derive my percentages.
It is time for the US and world venues such as the Olympics, to realize and admit what the actual threat is, and start being smarter about how we fight or defend against it. I absolutely believe if there is not an attack of some kind during the Olympic games it’s because the terrorists got lazy, not because they were not capable of attacking.
Likewise, the American public must realize they are a target, and the possibility of attack on anything related to the US is 100%, despite the probability and / or known threats that exist.
