SS Andrus' $120 million extension and the reasons behind it-- a dispassionate discourse
Shorstop Elvis Andrus signed an eight-year pact worth $120 million with the Texas Rangers, a semi-shocking development given the Jurickson Profar's stock as baseball's No.1 prospect.
Uh, they both play the same position, Ian Kinsler is entrenched in second base, and Adrian Beltre is just the best defensive third baseman in the game. The money was on Andrus getting traded, but I guess that's not happening now.
If he was attractive to teams seeking a shortstop and willing to barter, say an all-star right fielder or a front line starter, maybe not so much anymore.
Which is fine if the Rangers intend to keep them. Because Jon Daniels -- title pending -- is one of the smartest show runners in baseball, he and his front office should have the best guesstimate on Andrus' future value.
It's somewhat perplexing that the Rangers are blowing a huge load it refused to pay for a good starting pitcher or a handful of Kyle Lohses, on a guy who has career slashes of .274 BA / .342 OBP / .396 SLG. He's never had a park adjusted OPS above 105, topping out well below at 94 in 2012, putting him below Major League average for all hitters.
But he's got an electric glove, a good set pair of 30-to-21 SB wheels, and has had ascending three-year totals in hits, total bases and extra base hits. Much of his 27 and 31 doubles surge the past two seasons can be attributed to his legs, not his strength off the bat.
He's making more than Jose Reyes, a guy so fast he's managed to register a plus .500 slugging percentage one season, and has, though cowardly, led the league in batting average, with a .337 batting average in 2011, a stat he parlayed into a little over $100 million over a period of time shorter than that of Andrus' deal.
It's interesting to note that Andrus has similar career numbers to the Angels' Erick Aybar, who skipped free agency under friendlier terms, and has career slashes of .278 BA / .324 OBP / .416 SLG, with three plus 100 adjusted OPS seasons, and a two-year ascending display of power. He'll be making what now looks like a reasonable $8.5 million. With Jered Weaver making a now reasonable $85 million to forego free agency, I'm beginning to wonder why teams don't do it the Angels' way -- drawing more concessions for a guaranteed and above market average that won't explode in the franchise's faces if something goes wrong with the player, as it happens so often in professional sports.
With the mammoth pre-free agency deals to homegrown stars, ranging from small market teams locking up elite hitters (Joey Votto with the Reds, Ryan Braun in Milwaukee, Evan Longoria in Tampa Bay) to bigger market teams stashing homegrown stars (Buster Posey and Matt Cain in San Francisco, Cole Hamels in Philadelphia, David Wright in New York), you'd think there weren't enough cautionary tales, like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in Philadelphia and Joe Mauer in Minnesota.
The results, even with the regional sports money pouring in, could be devastating. It's interesting to watch a cleaving approach to expenses, though expect more teams to pay top dollar to its young stars -- might as well pay to keep them while they're young instead of signing 'em mid-career to top dollar that's ultimately and almost certainly not worth it.
But we must search for some benefit, and that answer could lie in Profar's direction. Unless Texas trades him for a package of young, blue chip pitching prospects, or an equally young ace in the making, expect him to get called up as a center fielder, and fulfills the higher projection of his bat, the Rangers get two quality hitters at defensively premium spots for an average of a little over $20 million, or the sum of Andrus' average annual salary of $15 million on top of Profar's early season projections.
That's a good way of doing business if you ask me, and the Rangers should be lauded if it works out. Otherwise they just overpaid for a shortstop who, though just 24, hasn't and probably won't hit more than 15 home runs a season. Andrus hasn't even hit more than 10, powering out with a career high six, and following it up with five and three respectively.
You're ultimately comparing Andrus* to Derek Jeter and Reyes in terms of pay grade. On a wins per season basis, he makes the cut, though he's not much of a franchise face, despite comparable WAR totals. His glove provides most of his value, and that projects to remain constant through his age 28 season at the worst.
*He's making more than David Wright, who signed an extension that will keep in Queens for the rest of his prime. That pretty much nullifies this extension as a good value deal given Wright's other financial boons to a team nestled in the world's largest market, a finicky audience that has nonetheless embraced him. I'm not so sure Andrus will continue to sell tickets when this core starts getting older around him.
Projections are a funny thing though, but Texas has possibly seen a future where Profar's glove doesn't compare. Instead of taking a major advantage -- a plus glove at short with a good enough bat, Profar isn't so much an upgrade as fair compensation.
