Because 12 production line not only investment large, but also high strength of taking continuously make the investment, its market, products, technological source, including managerial talent, industry chain all have its unique laws to form a complete set etc., relatively very risky, the possibility to gain under the existing condition in China's Mainland in short term is small. So, it needs to be double cautious to invest in line of 12 inches.
The global chip manufacturing industry is in a change and annex the shock period when is recombinated, it is that the news exist everywhere to especially produce collinear construction aspect in 12 inches even more. Ambitious India announce, invest dollar of SemIndia and whom another South Korea makes the investment, take the place of the factory plan and might be suspended temporarily originally once. Because the market of memorizer is prosperous to weaken, the news of goal of founding the factory of 12 inches originally comes and revises recently in Taiwan of China. But shortly after this news spreads, some news said recently, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) For expand market, invest 14,700 millionth newly-built 5 12 the intersection of wafer and works other two the intersection of chip and manufacturer. Under such a new situation, China's Mainland produces collinear construction aspect in 12 inches, should be according to the constant change of the market situation, considers in an all-round way, cautious decision.
The global chip manufacturing industry tends to produce a polarization
Because the technology approaches the limit of the Moore law progressively, and the technological research and development expenses rise in the form of rocket, cause a lot of IDM several several IDM (integrated device manufacturers) with enough capabilities of Europe, U.S.A. The intersection of enterprise and satisfactory the intersection of law and semiconductor, fly, think Karl, the intersection of kindness and Pu intelligently, LSI, and the intersection of Dezhou and instrument,etc. lead and carry out the light wafer factory (fab-lite) one after another Tactics, sell the original chip factory or does not build new advanced technique chip factory again also, and turn to and take the place of worker's enterprises and cooperate. Recently more conservative Japanese semiconductor industry had no option too, was taking the same road, the chip factory gives to Toshiba as Sony sells and makes Playstation with 860 million dollars, Hitachi will transferred to licensing the semi-conductive company on production line of 8 inches of Singapore, and Japanese Mitsubishi purchases auspicious Sa's chip factory,etc..
In a word, the trend two-stage of the global chip manufacturing industry, except that few enterprises such as Intel, Samsung, Toshiba and sea wrestler continue making the investment to expand the productivity, all other conservative. Collinear several China Taiwan enterprise have already adjusted big ambitious 12 inches of above memorizers to some extent. And present trend all adopt the big super factory (megafab) Mode,200,000 slices namely monthly output 12 inch 150,000 slice,make the investment at 7 billion - 8 billion dollars each production line.
By the end of 2008, nearly 70 to estimate production line of 12 inches in the world including under construction, 18 U.S.A. among them; 16 Japan; 19 Taiwan of China; 9 South Korea; 3 for 4 strings and China's Mainland of Europe.
The industry chain shifts and goes on to China's Mainland
As everyone knows, China has IC market of global maximum. Analyze, there is only few perhaps reconstructs the new factorying in Europe and U.S.A. in terms of industry's chain transfer, it is the trend of the times that semiconductor manuafcture is shifted to Asia, especially China's Mainland.
Make to the intersection of Asia and area analysis can find out Japanese semiconductor industry face the intersection of cost and too high, the intersection of mode and predicament such as being outmoded one by one; Though China Taiwan semiconductor industry increases, is limited by objective conditions such as market, manpower cost, electricity and earthquake,etc., its comparative advantage that founded the factory is not so good as the past; Samsung of South Korea and sea imposing manner in the field of memorizer of wrestler's company are outstanding, still in situation of rising; The other great industry's environments such as India, Vietnam and other places are not still mature. So, the whole world have the semiconductors of about 50 billion dollars invest every year, as to China's Mainland it is a fairly good opportunity. It is preferably identifications that the wrestler of sea of South Korea can choose to invest 2,500 million dollars to build 12 inches of chip factories in Dalian to build memorizer factory and Intel Corporation in Wuxi, IC industry chain will go on to shift to China's Mainland.
Treat 12 inches of wafers with caution to make
During these days, continental 12 inches in China have the tendency to intensify to make constantly, as to this, it's time it can be analyzed from different angles and aspect.
If the large international factory such as Intel, sea wrestler meet the individual proprietorship of China's Mainland and set up the factory, China's Mainland should welcome warmly, needn't worry about the investment risk and source of funds either. However, come from all sorts of reasons, China's Mainland produced collinear heat degree to 12 inches of chips a little a bit high recently. Local government and enterprise make a decision to develop Hi-Tech, dare to capture the advanced manufacturing fields of the integrated circuit, make the investment and build production line of 12 inches, it is the support to integrated circuit industry. But it needs to be double cautious to invest in line of 12 inches.
The one that should emphasized here is, come from the strategic demand of national long-term development, it is totally essential that it is made that China's Mainland participates in 12 inches of integrated circuit actively, however, there can only be a few at the present stage and lead enterprises to participate in. Its reason is that the possibility of line of 12 inches profit of China's Mainland is small in a short time, need remedying by a large number of line of 8 inches profit, the support of a certain degree that even need to be national. But according to whole and reality, China's Mainland can only support a few several enterprises especially at present, so, no matter places or enterprises, the wind follow blindly to make sure not to disregard the objective condition as to line of 12 inches.
Emphasize have one consciousness to strengthen risk, take, estimate, lose countermeasure when situation appear in here, it is huge because once loss appears to suffer the loss. So, as to the feasibility report of the project, should believe it, but can't totally rely on it. Because to the prediction of the semiconductor industry, probably within three quarters still the consulting, must change in over more than one years. So the key to the project is adapting to the future change, will be passive otherwise.
The Moore law is a golden rule and precious percept in the semiconductor industry, its marrow is to warn we will be encouraging oneself to progress ceaselessly constantly, if IC products should drop by half to the cost of 24 months every 18 on average, the project that will start should have abundant preparation to this. The market of global memorizer in 2007 is supply exceeds demand, the average price drops to 39%, faster than what the Moore law is said. Lose the state in half of place in 40 large chip workses ago the whole world in 2007, this situation is worth causing our attention.
There is some difficulty in China's Mainland to greatly pay in soon last production line of 12 inches in the near future. It is IDM at first and takes the place of worker's modal choice, because the continent design is indifferent, choose IDM mode to be still relatively reluctant. Secondly, on the choice of the products, two kinds of products such as CPU (microprocessor) having a large capacity and a wide range And memorizer, including flashing memory yet there will be all sorts of difficulties in participation at once. Weigh the advantage and disadvantages repeatedly, that took the memorizer is perhaps the way to hope for the worker, though may be difficult at the moment a bit bigger, should bear some loss, but in the long term, because global demand is great, enterprises may have hopes. Walk to take the place of way of worker logical circuit, because global technological source of logical circuit come from IBM and IMEC (semi-conductive research center) nearly all ,Serious with the materialzation phenomenon, and the technology which China can receive is often the above of lagging behind two generations, uncompetitive.
As a whole, the market orders of 12 inches of products in China's Mainland are a big problem in short term. Continental order, 90 nanometers do not have such large quantity that can be supported as follows. And depend on the foreign order, because of factors such as technological source, market credibility,etc., also very difficult. So build easy line, keep difficult, under can remain in the state of losing, have high productivity very crucial even more in utilization factor. In addition persistent financial support, technological source, senior managerial talent,etc. may become " The obstacle " .
China's Mainland builds 12 inches and produces collinear purpose at present, it is for tracing to look from aspect of enterprise at first, will have technological break-through of one's own IP that will go up first, and try to find out and accumulate and produce the collinear experience of management from it, later may create China's continental chip industry's brand and move towards the international market. On the other hand look from aspect of the country, 12 inches have represented industrial highest level of the national semiconductor, helpful to the outlet control breaking the west in high technology. It is totally essential so a few leads enterprises and goes for tracing and breaks through again.
SICAS (international semi-conductive productivity counts the association) Report in will it be third quarter and fourth quarter 2007 point out in the world 80 account for global silicon dice, produce nearly or 50% more than still to 0.4 sections of product, indicate to be still in the major position with 8 inches of chip cost performance produced. 12 produce, used mainly in memorizer and common CPU, upgrade, it substitutes smaller speeds to be yet in the past fast.
To sum up, China's Mainland should take 8 inches of chips works as the core at the present stage, it is may be comparatively rational for 12 inches of factories of drib to regard as the long-term strategic reserves policy.