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[poetponyofmidgard]

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[poetponyofmidgard]

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[hist1977-blog]

Is the American Empire in Decline?

Empires exist for a finite amount of time. The British Empire survived until the end of World War Two and the Roman Empire is widely argued to have culminated with the overthrow of Augustus in the 5th century. Similarly, many argue, and have been since the 1960s and 70s, that America’s imperialist grip on the world is loosening, and its established Empire is systematically declining. This post acknowledges that by discussing the decline of the American Empire, I am admitting that America is an Empire, a statement supported by evidence – including but not limited to – of the country’s dominance in the global economic landscape, self-serving attitude in diplomatic spheres and establishment of numerous military bases on foreign, sovereign land. Julian Go, author of Patterns of Empire, finds connections between the rise, development and fall of the British Empire with that of the American Empire, ultimately stating that a “new imperialism” of “a more aggressive and imperialist approach” does not signal the dominating power of an empire but rather it’s “impending doom.”

Although Go provides substantial information, graphs and statistics that compare the rise and fall of these empires, it is difficult to completely internalize his argument because of the different contexts in which the two empires have developed. In the contemporary world, Empire is no longer directly associated with colonialism, but instead with hegemonic dominance through alliances, military bases and an unequal economic exchange and interdependence, and perhaps, even western cultural assimilation and humanitarian intervention. A brief analysis of the economic, military and political condition of the US should hopefully shed some light on the development of the decline argument, and whether or not the Empire is falling.  

Renowned historian, Niall Ferguson, argues that the beginning of an empire’s decline is “a debt explosion,” similarly, Michael Cox, a scholar of US foreign policy and international relations, believes that the American empire is coming to an end because of “national debt” and an “interdependent world economy.” Clearly, the economic condition of the US is one of the most relevant measures of US decline. On one hand, declinists argue that the economic crisis of 2007 and the gaping income inequality, widely publicized through the Occupy Movement in 2011, are examples of US economic deterioration. These arguments certainly have strong motivations, such as statistics that proclaim, “95% of growth in income between the end of the recession in 2009 to 2013 went to the richest 1% in the US” (Jacobin Magazine, 2013). Currently, economic stability has not reverted to pre-2007 conditions, and there is an attitude of cautious optimism of the bond market as U.S. federal tapering continues and the outperformance of European and emerging markets in the near future.

On the other hand, Joseph Nye, well-known political scientist, counters the theory of total US economic decline by stating that the “US economy leads in many new growth sectors such as information technology, biotechnology and nanotechnology.” Moreover, the American economy has the advantage of being the world’s reserve currency and having the “most liquid asset market in Treasury bonds” (Nye 2010). Both of these combined ensure that any economic instability of the US will have worldwide reverberations, refuting claims that US economic performance will be negligible to the global economy in the near future. 

Aside from economic dominance and decline, the rising numbers of military bases post 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 certainly illustrate aggressive security policies. According to Ferguson, the invasion of Iraq was a catastrophic event, often serving as evidence for US decline theories. Analogously, Go argues that “America’s dealings with Iraq and Afghanistan suggest that the United States had become more willing to act as an imperial power,” emphasizing that renewed military interventions were a symbol of America’s desperation to assert global dominance. A recent example of foreign military domination as an exposure of internal domestic and international decline is the ongoing war in Syria. Immanuel Wallerstein, in a commentary on his website, suggests that controversy over whether or not to intervene in Syria “illustrates the limitations of Western power…and will result in dire negative consequences for the U.S. and west European geopolitical power” (Syria: No Win for the West, May 2013). 

Despite these apparent cracks in U.S. hegemonic and military domination, the fact that countries and foreign governments have allowed the US to set up bases on their land for security and diplomatic protection elucidates the power of the military and it’s unparalleled intelligence resources and weaponry. In fact, US overseas weapon sales amount to 3/4ths of the global arms market in 2011, and sales continue to grow (New York Times, Aug 26 2012). Clearly, US military dominance has not completely deteriorated, but in fact, is being sustained by not only new bases established, like in the Philippines, but also the increase in national security issues with the escalation of crises in the Middle East.

Lastly, it can be argued that the influence of US in global diplomatic forums and international crises is waning. With the rise of China, and the emerging markets, the once unequal power dynamics are shifting to create new paradigms of diplomatic relations. Political power is now multipolar. Joseph Nye supports this argument by discussing the diffusion of centralized power to Europe, Japan, and China as well as “non-state actors like bankers, terrorists, multinationals and cyber security hackers” who can sway policies and limit the states political authority.

As discussed in this post, America’s current political, economic and military weaknesses are continuing to shift power paradigms, suggesting a deterioration in American power and influence in the contemporary world. Forthcoming, it would be interesting to see whether these signs of weakness lead to an absolute or relative decline of the American Empire.

References and Suggestions for Further Reading  

Cox, Michael. "Is the United States in Decline -- Again? An Essay."International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944) 83.4 (2007): 643-53. JSTOR.

 Nye Joseph S. "The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective." Foreign Affairs 89.6, The World Ahead (2010): 2-12.JSTOR.

Go, Julian. Patterns of Empire: The British and American Empires, 1688 to the Present. New York: Cambridge UP, 2011. Print.