TISR has returned to posting, albeit intermittently. Both horse-race and city government questions were asked in these two polls.
April 19-21 Poll:
1. Whom do you support in the Taichung mayoral election?
Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) (DPP): 31.9%
Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) (KMT): 23.7%
Won't Vote / Blank Ballot: 8.6%
Undecided: 35.7%
TISR Notes: Lin's support was relatively higher among males, residents of the old Taichung County, voters ages 60-69, votes with secondary or university education, and pan-greens. Lu's support was relatively greater among residents of the old Taichung City, voters age 40-49, voters with vocational education, and pan-blues.
2. Whom do you believe will win the Taichung mayoral election?
Lin: 40.6%
Lu: 20.1%
Undecided: 39.4%
TISR Notes: 82.3% of Lin's supporters think he will win. 55.6% of Lu's supporters think she will win.
3. The remediation of Taichung's Liuchuan and Luchuan canals has been a major project of the Taichung City Government. Since remediation, the waterfronts have become a leisure area for citizens. Have you visited the Luchuan or Liuchuan canal since the remediation project was completed?
Yes: 42.8%
No: 55.8%
Unclear: 1.4%
TISR Notes: Residents of the old Taicung City, residents age 20-29, and those with vocational education or above are more likely to have gone.
4. Are you satisfied with public safety in Taichung City?
Yes: 54.8%
No: 26.3%
Undecided: 18.9%
TISR Notes: Men, respondents age 20-29, those with at least secondary education, and pan-green supporters are more likely to be satisfied.
5. The green line of the Taichung MRT is scheduled to begin test runs by the end of this year and launch in 2020. Are you satisfied with the MRT's progress?
Yes: 39.4%
No: 33.4%
Undecided: 27.2%
TISR Notes: Men, respondents age 20-29, those with secondary or vocational education, and pan-greens are more likely to be satisfied.
6. Are you satisfied with the city government's planning and preparation for the flower exposition?
Yes: 46.6%
No: 19.2%
Undecided: 34.3%
TISR Notes: Residents of the old Taichung County, those with at least a college education, and pan-greens are more likely to be satisfied.
1. Are you satisfied with Mayor Lin Chia-lung's (林佳龍) performance?
Yes: 51.7%
No: 24.3%
Undecided: 24.0%
TISR Notes: Residents of the old Taichung County, those age 60 or over, those with only primary education, and pan-greens were more likely to be satisfied.
2. Do you believe Taichung City has made progress during Mayor Lin's three years in office?
TISR Notes: The only demographic among which "progress" wasn't the plurality response was pan-blue supporters. Belief in progress was particularly strong among men, residents of the old Taichung County, respondents age 60-69, and pan-greens. Among pan-blues, 24.8% thought the city had made progress; 30.9% thought it hadn't changed much; and 38.1% thought the city had regressed.
3. Are you proud to be a citizen of Taichung?
Yes: 72.3%
No: 11.6%
Undecided: 16.1%
TISR Notes: All demographics were proud to be Taichungers. Respondents age 20-29 and pan-greens were especially proud. 66.8% of pan-blues were proud.
4. Did you know Taichung has surpassed Kaohsiung to become Taiwan's second-largest city?
Yes: 58.4%
No: 41.6%
TISR Notes: Men, residents of the old Taichung City, respondents age 40-69, and those with at least vocational education were more likely to know this.
5. Which party has the most responsibility for Taichung's air pollution?
Central Government: 30.5%
City Government: 20.0%
Taipower: 16.7%
Taichung Citizens: 10.8%
Other: 1.9%
Undecided: 20.0%
TISR Notes: Residents of the Qingshui/Wuqi/Shalu area assigned the greatest responsibility to the city. Their results were: City Government 30.9%, Central Government 21.1%, Taipower 21.7%, Taichung Citizens 2.2%.
6. Are you satisfied with the remediation of the Luchuan and Liuchuan canals?
Yes: 66.3%
No: 8.6%
Undecided: 25.1%
TISR Notes: The plurality of respondents from all demographics were satisfied. The most satisfied were residents of the old Taichung City, respondents age 20-39, those with at least vocational education, and pan-greens. 60.2% of pan-blues were satisfied.
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey
-11.4% believe the economy is in good shape. 79.5% believe it is in bad shape.
-52.9% say their household’s finances are in good shape. 41.2% say they are in bad shape.
-46.5% trust President Tsai. 36.5% do not.
-38.4% approve of Tsai’s performance. 48.3% disapprove.
-28.0% approve of Premier Lin’s performance. 53.0% disapprove.
-40.5% feel positively about the DPP. 38.0% feel negatively about it.
-26.6% feel positively about the KMT. 49.2% feel negatively about it.
-13.9% feel positively about the CCP. 59.5% feel negatively about it.
Party Favorability Index: DPP 48.5, KMT 40.3, CCP 31.4
DPP down 2.2, KMT up 0.8, CCP down 1.8.
How the index is calculated: 50 + 0.5*(Very Positive % minus Very Negative %) + 0.25*(Somewhat Positive % minus Somewhat Negative %).
50 is the baseline score of neutral, with 50-100 representing increasingly positive feelings and 0-50 increasingly negative ones.
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey
-9.9% believe the economy is in good shape. 77.7% believe it is in bad shape.
-54.5% say their household’s finances are in good shape. 38.0% say they are in bad shape.
-48.0% trust President Tsai. 33.1% do not.
-40.8% approve of Tsai's performance. 41.8% disapprove.
-31.7% approve of Premier Lin's performance. 47.2% disapprove.
-43.4% feel positively about the DPP. 35.3% feel negatively about it.
-26.1% feel positively about the KMT. 48.8% feel negatively about it.
-16.4% feel positively about the CCP. 57.7% feel negatively about it.
Party Favorability Index: DPP 50.7, KMT 39.5, CCP 33.2
DPP down 0.2, KMT up 1.6, CCP up 2.1.
How the index is calculated: 50 + 0.5*(Very Positive % minus Very Negative %) + 0.25*(Somewhat Positive % minus Somewhat Negative %).
50 is the baseline score of neutral, with 50-100 representing increasingly positive feelings and 0-50 increasingly negative ones.
Poll conducted August 28-29 (link) with 1,004 respondents, plus-minus 3.1 points.
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey
-9.9% believe the economy is in good shape. 82.1% believe it is in bad shape.
-53.6% say their household’s finances are in good shape. 39.9% say they are in bad shape.
-53.4% trust President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) (up 4.2 points). 32.9% don’t (up 0.4 points).
-42.8% approve of Tsai’s performance (down 2.7 points). 45.0% disapprove (up 5.2).
-35.3% approve of Premier Lin Chuan’s (林全) performance (down 2.0 points). 46.5% disapprove (up 6.1).
-45.9% feel positively about the DPP. 36.8% feel negatively about it (up 2.1).
-26.5% feel positively about the KMT. 53.6% feel negatively about it (down 3.4).
-15.8% feel positively about the Communist Party of China. 61.5% feel negatively about it (down 2.5).
Party Favorability Index: DPP 50.9, KMT 37.9, CCP 31.1
DPP up 0.5, KMT down 0.2, CCP down 0.5.
How the index is calculated: 50 + 0.5*(Very Positive % minus Very Negative %) + 0.25*(Somewhat Positive % minus Somewhat Negative %). 50 is the baseline score of neutral, with 50-100 representing increasingly positive feelings and 0-50 increasingly negative ones.
TISR (8/10-12): Admin & DPP caucus approval ahead of Ma admin & KMT’s 8 years ago
I apologize for the month without posting. We moved and it was a much busier process than I expected! Here’s the TISR poll (link) conducted August 11-12 with 1,003 respondents, plus-minus 3.1 points. While the fall in the presidential and premier approval ratings is worthy of notice, it’s also remarkable how far ahead they are of the Ma administration’s and KMT legislators’ numbers 8 years earlier--and note Typhoon Morakot wasn’t until 2009. I also thought the comparison of approval of different groups in the ruling party and to the DPP itself was interesting, as was the appearance of a significant minority of pan-green supporters who disapprove of the new administration’s work.
Note: The numbers in the second row (Ma-Liu-Minister-KMT) come from an August 12-15, 2008 poll.
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey
-8.1% believe the economy is in good shape. 79.9% believe it is in bad shape.
-52.1% say their household’s finances are in good shape. 42.2% say they are in bad shape.
-49.2% trust President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) (down 6.6 points). 32.5% don’t (up 7.2 points).
-45.5% approve of Tsai’s performance (down 4.7). 39.8% disapprove (up 7.5).
-37.3% approve of Premier Lin Chuan’s (林全) performance. 40.4% disapprove.
-44.6% feel positively about the DPP (no change). 35.5% feel negatively about it (up 2.1).
-24.8% feel positively about the KMT (up 5.4). 54.0% feel negatively about it (down 3.4).
-16.1% feel positively about the Communist Party of China (up 3.8). 59.3% feel negatively about it (down 2.5).
Party Favorability Index: DPP 50.4, KMT 38.1, CCP 31.6
DPP down 2.0, KMT up 3.0, CCP up 1.6.
How the index is calculated: 50 + 0.5*(Very Positive % minus Very Negative %) + 0.25*(Somewhat Positive % minus Somewhat Negative %).
50 is the baseline score of neutral, with 50-100 representing increasingly positive feelings and 0-50 increasingly negative ones.
1. In order to resolve the various pension system problems, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has established a national pension reform committee at the Presidential Office, with plans to propose legal amendments for legislative consideration within one year. Do you believe that to date President Tsai and the new administration have considered pension reform important?
Yes: 68.5% (Strongly 24.5%, Somewhat 44.0%)
No: 10.2% (Somewhat 6.9%, Strongly 3.3%)
Don't Know/No Response: 21.3%
TISR Notes: Among pan-greens, 87.0% yes, 4.6% no. Among pan-blues, 62.1% yes, 22.1% no. Among neutrals, 55.5% yes, 9.2% no. Age 30-49 group most likely to say yes (76%). In a January 2013 survey, less than half of respondents thought the Ma administration took pension reform seriously though it had held over 100 seminars on the subject with over 10,000 attendees, so the present poll's result shows approval of the new administration's attitude and expectations it will resolve these problems.
2. The Ministry of Labor is promoting a Labor Standards Act amendment that would allow workers one fixed day off and one flexible day off every 7 days. Did you know this? (Yes/No: If yes ->) Whose position do you think the MOL's proposal assigns more importance to?
Bosses' and workers' equally: 25.8%
Workers' more than bosses': 20.9%
Bosses' more than workers': 16.7%
Too hard to say: 12.6%
Didn't know about the proposal: 24.0%
TISR Notes: 76.0% know and 24.0% don't know about the proposal. Among pan-greens, the answers are 31.5% both, 21.7% labor, 15.7% management. Among pan-blues, 26.5% labor, 24.0% management, 20.6% both. Among neutrals, 24.0% both, 17.8% labor, 14.0% management. Top 3 responses for respondents over 40: (1) Both (2) Labor (3) Management. For age 30-39: (1) Management (28.2%) (2) Labor (23.7%) (3) Both (19.5%). For age 20-29: (1) Both (28.5%) (2) Management (23.3%) (3) Labor (16.8%).
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey
-9.3% believe the economy is in good shape. 78.5% believe it is in bad shape.
-51.8% say their household’s finances are in good shape. 39.4% say they are in bad shape.
-57.0% trust President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). 21.3% don’t.
-53.2% approve of Tsai’s performance. 23.4% disapprove.
-44.3% approve of Premier Lin Chuan’s (林全) performance. 27.8% disapprove.
-45.9% feel positively about the DPP. 29.0% feel negatively about it.
-25.0% feel positively about the KMT. 48.8% feel negatively about it.
-12.3% feel positively about the Communist Party of China. 56.8% feel negatively about it.
Party Favorability Index: DPP 53.9, KMT 39.2, CCP 31.7
DPP down 0.5, KMT up 3.0, CCP up 1.0
How the index is calculated: 50 + 0.5*(Very Positive % minus Very Negative %) + 0.25*(Somewhat Positive % minus Somewhat Negative %).
50 is the baseline score of neutral, with 50-100 representing increasingly positive feelings and 0-50 increasingly negative ones.
TISR's late June party ID tracking poll shows new highs for pan-greens and the DPP and a new low for pan-blues with KMT ID slipping to its 2004 nadir. Put another way, the declared pan-green base is now 70% bigger than the declared pan-blue base. Source.
Source. Poll conducted June 27-28 with 1,002 respondents, 95% confidence, plus or minus 3.1 points.
1. The DPP has unified control of the government. Among the reform items below, which 3 do you think should be its top priorities? (Choices arranged randomly)
Economy and Industry: 73.5%
Food Safety: 56.5%
Pension and Treasury: 37.9%
Judiciary: 37.3%
Constitution: 16.8%
Energy and Ending Nuclear Power: 16.2%
Transitional Justice: 13.9%
Don't Know/No Response: 7.9%
2. Overall, who do you believe should bear the greatest responsibility for implementing these reforms?
Cabinet Ministers: 25.2%
President Tsai: 21.1%
DPP Legislators: 16.7%
Premier Lin: 8.1%
All of the Above: 17.6%
Don't Know/No Response: 11.3%
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey
-8.9% believe the economy is in good shape. 78.8% believe it is in bad shape.
-51.9% say their household’s finances are in good shape. 39.7% say they are in bad shape.
-59.8% trust President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). 20.3% don’t.
-54.6% approve of Tsai’s performance. 23.5% disapprove.
-36.9% approve of Premier Lin Chuan’s (林全) performance. 36.5% disapprove.
-46.5% feel positively about the DPP. 29.3% feel negatively about it.
-21.1% feel positively about the KMT. 56.1% feel negatively about it.
-12.0% feel positively about the Communist Party of China. 60.4% feel negatively about it.
Party Favorability Index: DPP 54.4, KMT 36.2, CCP 30.7
DPP down 2.3, KMT down 2.1, CCP up 0.8
How the index is calculated: 50 + 0.5*(Very Positive % minus Very Negative %) + 0.25*(Somewhat Positive % minus Somewhat Negative %).
50 is the baseline score of neutral, with 50-100 representing increasingly positive feelings and 0-50 increasingly negative ones.
