Dec 1, 2025
Steve Hofstetter: Tuesday, there is a special election in Tennessee
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Steve Hofstetter: Tuesday, there is a special election in Tennessee
Republican Matt Van Epps will win the seat, but Republicans across America are spooked tonight after a result that saw the district shift su
Aaron Parnas at The Parnas Perspective (12.02.2025):
We have major political news tonight out of Tennessee. Democrat Aftyn Behn has dramatically overperformed expectations in the special election for the state’s 7th Congressional District, a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024 and that Republicans have routinely held by margins of 20 points or more. Yet despite that built-in advantage, Decision Desk has confirmed that Republican Matt Van Epps will win this seat—but narrowly. With votes still being tallied, the race appears headed for a single-digit margin. For Democrats who hoped for a once-unthinkable flip, the loss stings. But for Republicans, the result is arguably even more troubling. Across the country, analysts and strategists I’ve spoken with agree: any single-digit finish in TN-7 amounts to a massive Democratic overperformance—and a striking Republican underperformance.
And the warning signs have been there for months. Since Trump returned to office for his second term, almost every electoral contest—special and general—has shifted leftward compared with 2024. Tuesday night’s result fits cleanly into that pattern. It should surprise no one that Republicans hung onto a district engineered to be safely red. But it should surprise everyone just how close that race became. Tennessee’s 7th District was drawn as part of a broader Republican redistricting strategy to divide Democratic-heavy Nashville among multiple GOP-leaning seats. The district includes portions of Benton, Davidson, and Williamson Counties—areas where Republican dominance has long been structural rather than cyclical.
Last night, Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn lost to Republican Matt Van Epps in the TN-07 special election to replace former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) by high single digit margins, substantially overperforming the Kamala Harris (Pres) and Gloria Johnson (TN-Sen) numbers in 2024.
This is a good omen for the Democratic chances of taking back the House and/or the Senate in 2026.
See Also:
The Allen Analysis: Aftyn Behn Lost Tennessee’s 7th – But Democrats Just Shaved A 22-Point Trump District Down To Single Digits
Strength In Numbers (G. Elliott Morris): What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Politico: Despite loss, Democrats overperformed in bright red Tennessee House race
Daily Kos: Given the Tennessee special election result, the GOP is so f'd in 2026
The Guardian: Republican Matt Van Epps wins US House special election in Tennessee
HuffPost: Republicans Narrowly Hang On In Tennessee Special Election
All eyes are on Tennessee, and for once, it’s not for the reasons the pundits expect.
On December 1, the Aftyn for Congress campaign is hosting a Virtual GOTV Rally... and look who’s showing up for TN-7:
Former Vice President Al Gore.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal.
LaTosha Brown.
You don’t pull leaders like this unless a race is real.
Unless a district is moving. Unless working people are about to do something this country isn’t ready for.
And here’s the thing:
You can be there.
No driving. No gas money.
No scrambling for childcare.
Just log in. Phone, laptop, anything.
7pm CST / 8pm EST
Your couch becomes the front row.
This is the last big push before Election Day on December 2. Let’s show the country exactly what Tennessee is capable of.
(Link in comments)
Join us for our GOTV Zoom Rally with Rep. Aftyn Behn — your last chance to hear from Aftyn before Election Day! 📅 Monday, December 1 ⏰ 7:00
If you are standing in line, in the cold, waiting to vote for Aftyn Behn to represent Tennessee-7th District - please know that citizens across the United States as well as folks like me who live outside the country - Thank You, Support You, Appreciate You. 💙💙💙💙Bring the blue across the finish line!
Take back congress. Dec 2nd:Tennessee D-07, elect Aftyn for Congress for all the RIGHT reasons. Vote-D.
Hearing massive turnout in the college precinct in Davidson County, Tennessee (which voted +27.4 for Kamala Harris). So high that it has exceeded 2024 turnout. If you know ANY young people in Tennessee, tell them to get out there, vote, and stay in line.