Giving away my entire $5k/week trading model (live backtesting)
I know exactly what you are thinking when you see that title. It sounds like something that has been ripped straight from a YouTube ad or a late-night infomercial. In a world absolutely flooded with financial gurus promising secrets to instant wealth, a necessary dose of skepticism is not just wise; it’s essential for survival. But I want you to stick with me, because while I am going to share my entire LC trading model—the system that consistently produced a strong weekly return on ES futures—the true secret I am giving away is not the chart setup. It’s the rigid psychological framework that eliminates the greatest threat to any trader: yourself.
The search for a perfect, rule-based model for generating wealth is intoxicating. It represents a deep, human yearning for certainty and control in an otherwise chaotic financial world. This article is about showing you how simple trading can get once you follow the right system, and why that system’s greatest utility is providing a logical shield against our own emotional, unpredictable nature.
I am going to backtest the LC model in real time and walk you through the entire process for every single trade from start to finish. I’m not just going to show you cherry-picked setups or only the wins; I’m going to show every trade that the system produced. The goal is to show you how to think in the moment, not after the fact, and demonstrate how to stay systematic even when things aren't obvious or perfect. This backtest isn't about perfection; it’s about illustrating consistency.
The Internal War: The Savanna Brain in a Digital World
The single hardest thing to overcome when you are trading in real time is the constant psychological battle against your own instincts. Our brains are wired to overthink, to force a setup, or to interfere with a trade once it’s running. The main cause of this psychological battle is a profound lack of trust in the system. We don't trust the strategy enough to let it play out, so we interfere, which inevitably leads to bad results, which then makes us trust the system even less—a destructive, vicious cycle that has destroyed countless accounts.
But once you see your strategy play out, whether it’s a win or a loss, often enough in the real market, it becomes much easier to trust. When you interrupt yourself less, you get better results, and you naturally start trusting the process more, creating a positive feedback loop that builds confidence and consistency.
To understand why a rigid system is necessary, we have to look back at our fundamental wiring. We all possess what I call the Savanna Brain, which was forged tens of thousands of years ago on the East African plains. That brain is designed for immediate feedback, spotting immediate opportunities (dopamine hit from ripe berries) and avoiding immediate dangers (panic response to the rustle of a lion). That brain is intuitive, impulsive, and brilliant at short-term pattern recognition.
Today, we place that same ancient brain in front of a trading platform or a smartphone. The stock market dipping or seeing a news headline screaming about a recession becomes the "lion" that triggers panic. Seeing a friend post about crypto gains becomes the "ripe berry" that triggers the impulse to buy immediately (FOMO). Our ancient, emotional wiring (Psychologist Daniel Kahneman’s System 1) is profoundly mismatched with the modern financial world, which requires long-term thinking, delayed gratification, and calm analysis amidst abstract threats.
The LC model is a manifestation of System 2—the slow, deliberate, analytical part of our brain that requires conscious effort. The system says, "Don’t feel, don’t guess, don’t hope. Just follow these rules". It is an attempt to outsource the difficult work of engaging our own rational mind, ensuring our emotional System 1 cannot sabotage us.
This systematic approach is essential because we are naturally plagued by cognitive biases:
Loss Aversion: The pain of losing is about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining, causing us to hold onto losing investments too long.
Confirmation Bias: The tendency to search for information that confirms our existing belief that a setup is perfect, ignoring any dissenting data.
Recency Bias: Attributing a winning streak to skill rather than luck, leading to overconfidence and bigger, reckless risks.
The rigid rules of the LC model protect us from these internal psychological traps by making the decisions purely binary and objective.
The Foundation: Non-Negotiable Rules of the LC Model
To ensure this necessary consistency and eliminate emotional interference, every trade must adhere to a strict set of non-negotiable rules.
1. All Trades Must Be Level-to-Level (LCE)
The core of this strategy is trading between pre-defined supply and demand zones, or "levels". I am not trying to predict market tops or bottoms; I am only looking to capture the high-probability move from the edge of one level to the next. My goal is not to take every single LCE trade because that would be exhausting and inefficient. I only want to take trades where the market has a high probability of moving clearly to one level rather than the other.
2. I Only Trade the New York Session
The LC model works on all time zones, but I personally only take trades during the regular U.S. trading hours, specifically from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. I am typically done well before 12:00 p.m. most days. I restrict my activity to these hours because the New York session has the most volume and volatility, which provides the clean moves necessary for the strategy to thrive. Trading outside of these hours often involves choppy price action that leads to false signals.
3. I Only Take Breakout Trades
Within the level-to-level framework, there are two possibilities: mean reversion (the price moves back to the level it came from) or breakout (the price breaks into a new level). I focus exclusively on breakout trades because they signal a clear alignment of trend and momentum to one side, making it much more likely to continue in that direction. I will not take anything mean reversion or counter trend.
4. Risk is Identical for Every Trade
Risk management is the bedrock of longevity in trading. For every single trade, the risk taken is the same. While the exact size depends on your account and risk tolerance, it must be a size where you can comfortably handle 10 to 20 losses in a row without blowing up your account or your mental capital. Losing streaks are a statistical certainty, and you must be prepared for them.
The Live Backtest: Consistency on ES Futures (September 22nd to 26th)
I executed this backtest on ES futures, which is my main trading asset, covering a recent trading week from September 22nd to September 26th.
Monday: Identifying the Obvious Trade
On Monday, we opened in the middle of a pre-defined zone. At the 9:30 open, the 15-minute chart showed choppy, uncertain action; the cloud had recently been bullish, then seemingly flipped bearish, but wasn’t able to hold the price under it. When action is choppy on a higher timeframe, it’s certainly choppy on the 5-minute execution timeframe. We don't want this uncertainty; we want the trade to be obvious. I shouldn't have to think for more than a few seconds about the direction.
My plan was to simply set alerts at the supply level above and the demand level below, and then wait. I don't look at the screen; I do something else until an alert gets hit.
Later, the upper alert was hit, signaling a breakout into the upper supply level. I needed confirmation that probability was on my side.
Higher Timeframe (1-Hour): The cloud was trending up strongly, indicating that momentum and trend were firmly bullish.
Execution Timeframe (5-Minute): The cloud was strongly sloping up with a thick layer of support beneath the price, also pointing bullish.
Since trend and momentum were pointing bullish on both timeframes, it was highly likely to break out and continue. This analysis takes only a few seconds or minutes at most.
The Trade: I entered long, placed my stop under market structure, and targeted the next supply level. Result: Win. That was one successful level-to-level trade done for the day.
Tuesday: A Mirror Image Short
Tuesday was very similar: we opened at a level, in the middle of a range, with a flat cloud and no clear probability. My plan was identical: set alerts on both sides and wait for a breakout.
The lower alert was hit, breaking into the demand zone below.
Execution Timeframe (5-Minute): The cloud flipped and was sloping down heavily; it was clearly bearish, supported by structure built that morning.
Higher Timeframe (15- or 30-Minute): The cloud was bullish but started flipping bearish.
This strong momentum shift on the higher timeframe, combined with the bearish momentum on the lower timeframe, signaled that the market was more likely to continue dropping lower than it was to move back up. It doesn't matter precisely where you enter; you just need to enter in this level once you get the confirmation of the breakout.
The Trade: I entered short, placed my stop loss above market structure, and set my target at the next demand level. Result: Win. We locked in the win and stopped trading.
Wednesday: Maximum Confirmation
Wednesday started, once again, looking like a replay: opening at a level in the middle of a range, with a flat cloud. Alerts set, and I waited for the market to move.
The bottom level was hit, similar to Tuesday. For confirmation, I found even more conviction:
Higher Timeframe: We had even more confirmation than yesterday; the cloud was fully sloping down, with a heavy cloud of resistance over the price.
5-Minute: The cloud had flipped from flat to bearish.
Both time frames were in alignment, telling us a breakout was highly likely. Crucially, I don’t check any news or anything like that; it's just pure level-to-level movement with no outside influence.
The Trade: I entered short, stop above market structure, target at the next demand. Result: Win. Another clean level-to-level drop.
Thursday: The Necessary Loss and the Key Lesson
On Thursday, the market was already in a downtrend with the cloud looking heavy above the price, giving us a natural inclination to go short. Sticking to the conservative plan, I waited for the breakout at the lower level.
The price folded under the downward pressure of the cloud and moved to the level below. My alert triggered, and I took the short.
The Trade: Entered short, stop above market structure, target at the next demand level. Result: Loss. The trade got stopped out.
Losses are normal, and we should never expect a 100% win rate because that is impossible. The key was analyzing why it failed. The sharp drawdown caused by the cloud’s bearish pressure happened almost immediately at the open. By the time the price reached the demand level where my alert was, the move was already too extended from the cloud and lacked the momentum or market structure to continue. The critical lesson: If you miss the initial, clean move, try your best to avoid chasing the second one, especially if the trade is extended from its momentum source (the cloud).
Friday: Caution and Risk Adjustment
Finally, we reached Friday. We were set to open between two levels. I set my alerts and waited.
Right at the open, the price briefly tested under the cloud then immediately sprang up with strong bullish momentum, breaking the upper supply level. The 5-minute chart was bullish, but my confirmation check revealed a flaw: the higher time frames were still neutral or just beginning to flip bullish.
Because the setup wasn't as clean as the others without the full higher timeframe support, I decided to still go long, but with extra caution. This meant moving my stop to break even more aggressively once the trade moved decently in my favor. The risk-to-reward was also not as large as the other ones, reflecting the lower quality of the setup.
The Trade: Entered long, stop under market structure, target at the next supply level. Result: Win. The target hit. True to the analysis, the move immediately collapsed on itself afterward because it was missing that higher timeframe support, but we were already out, having secured the level-to-level move.
The Final Takeaway: The Freedom of a Framework
The week wrapped up with four wins and one loss. The backtest demonstrated that when you trade level-to-level with the LC model, everything becomes simple and binary: either it’s a breakout or it’s not; either the probabilities line up, or they don’t. You are not sitting there overthinking, second-guessing, or forcing something that isn't there. This is how you build real, lasting consistency and how you scale to incredibly large numbers. You don't need to catch every move; you just need to catch the clean ones and let the system do the heavy lifting. If you are focusing on anything beside a simple, repeatable process with a clear edge, you are wasting your time.
The profound insight here is that the search for a perfect external trading system is a desperate search for a way to override our own ancient, often counterproductive, programming. The true value of this LC model is its ability to serve as a pure System 2 framework that keeps the emotional Savanna Brain out of the decision-making process.
Building Your Own "Personal Trading Model"
The beauty of these systematic rules is that their core principles can be applied to manage your personal, everyday finances, turning chaos into a predictable, anxiety-reducing framework.
Rule 1: All Trades Must Be Level-to-Level
Your Personal Rule: Define Your Financial Zones. In life, your "levels" are clearly defined financial goals, ensuring every dollar has a single, clear job. This eliminates the confusion and guilt of not knowing where your money should go. You move from vaguely "trying to save" to actively working to break into the next level of stability.
Zone 1: The Emergency Fund ($0 to $1,000). Your sole focus until you hit that breakout.
Zone 2: High-Interest Debt (Aggressively paying off credit cards).
Zone 3: Full Emergency Fund (3-6 months expenses) & Retirement Contributions.
Rule 2: I Only Trade the New York Session
Your Personal Rule: Create a Weekly "Financial Power Hour." I restrict my trading hours to avoid emotional exhaustion and low-volume "chop". You must restrict your financial activity too. Instead of constantly checking your bank account or making scattered decisions, schedule a non-negotiable 30-60 minute block once a week. This is your "Power Hour," where you review spending, pay bills, and make necessary adjustments. For the rest of the week, you can relax, knowing the system is running, preventing financial anxiety from bleeding into every corner of your life.
Rule 3: I Only Take Breakout Trades
Your Personal Rule: Focus on Positive Momentum. A breakout trade is a bet that momentum will continue. In personal finance, you must weaponize your small wins. When you successfully pay off a credit card—a "breakout" from the debt zone—immediately redirect the exact amount you were paying on that loan to your next goal. This creates a powerful "snowball" effect, capturing the momentum of one victory and using it to propel you toward the next.
Rule 4: Risk is Identical for Every Trade
Your Personal Rule: Automate Your Most Important Financial Habit. The most powerful way to defeat your emotional System 1 is to remove it from the decision-making process entirely. Define a consistent amount—your "identical risk"—and set up an automatic transfer from your checking account to your savings or investment account the day you get paid. This must happen before you pay bills and before your System 1 gets a chance to argue. Automation is the ultimate System 2 tool.
A good system does not try to eliminate emotion; that is impossible. It provides a logical, gentle structure that guides us, especially when we are feeling stressed, fearful, or tempted. This framework doesn't trap you; it sets you free. Free from decision fatigue, free from constant anxiety, and free to focus your energy on a simple, repeatable process. You are capable of building a peaceful and powerful financial life, one system, one habit, one day at a time.
