#ufc 223

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UFC 223: Rose Namajunas vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk 2

Rose lands the left hook!

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What a crazy fight week! Here is the new fight card for UFC 223, which still goes down in Brooklyn, New York. The updated main card is below:

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Al Iaquinta

Rose Namajunas vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Renato Carneiro vs. Calvin Kattar

Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Kyle Bochniak

Joe Lauzon vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

I know this is super short notice but hopefully you guys can still make your predictions

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Rose Namajunas poses for a portrait backstage after her victory over Joanna Jedrzejczyk during the UFC 223 event inside Barclays Center on April 7, 2018 in Brooklyn, New York.

(Photo by Mike Roach)

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“Watch This Show, Dudes” The UFC 223 preview

Joey

April 1st, 2018

Fights: 13

Debuts: 1 (Mike Rodriguez)

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 1 (Mairbek Taisumov OUT, Olivier Aubin Mercier IN vs Evan Dunham)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 16 (Tony Ferguson, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Rose Namajunas, Joanna Jędrzejczyk, Anthony Pettis, Michael Chiesa, Al Iaquinta, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Felice Herrig, Ray Borg, Brandon Moreno, Joe Lauzon, Evan Dunham, Alex Caceres, Artem Lobov, Bec Rawlings)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 5  (Bec Rawlings, Joe Lauzon, Chris Gruetzmacher, Alex Caceres, Artem Lobov)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:  9 (Khabib Nurmagomedov, Tony Ferguson, Rose Namajunas, Calvin Kattar, Al Iaquinta, Paul Felder,Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Felice Herrig, Zabit Magomedsharipov)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC): 21-6

Tony Ferguson- 3-0 Khabib Nurmagomedov- 3-0 Renato Moicano- 3-0 Calvin Kattar- 2-0 Michael Chiesa- 2-1 Anthony Pettis- 2-4 Al Iaquinta- 1-0 Paul Felder- 5-1

Too High Up- Karolina Kowalkawiecz vs Felice Herrig

I get it I get it. The winner of this fight could in theory be the #1 contender given the dearth of options at 115 lbs. Karolina K has a rivalry with Joanna and a win over Rose Namajunas so she's a natural fit. Felice Herrig is not the world's most exciting fighter by any stretch of the imagination but she has a pretty sizable winning streak going and has a cult-ish following-ish out there. Here's the problem; this division doesn't produce many finishes if at all. It's a dry division when it comes to fight finishes as evidenced by its recent stretch of split decisions and so-so fights. This is the prelim headliner to get us into the PPV. You probably want a really exciting back and forth fight or a killer finish to get us into the PPV all hot and bothered. It's just not going to happen here chances are. I get putting it on the FS1 prelims but I'd prefer a different headliner.

Too Low- Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Kyle Bochniak

So let's talk about Zabit Magomedsharipov right quick. He's a really talented 145er. It would not be a stretch to suggest that Magomedsharipov right NOW is a top 10 featherweight just without the wins to prove it. He can wrestle, he's a funky flashy striker and when it's on the ground, he's just swamping dudes with ease. He hasn't been tested yet which is why Kyle Bochniak, the sort of dude who can live as a high level gatekeeper, is a great matchup for him. The problem? Magomedsharipov is not blessed with the sort of personality that sells and has no home market to go to where he's insanely marketable. Making matters worse is he's the ultimate low reward high risk for a fighter in an era where fighters are choosier than ever before. As such, he's buried on the prelims on Fight Pass. I know Magomedsharipov is a no sell type of fighter but you HAVE to at least try. Put him on FS1.

Stat Monitor for 2018: Debuting Fighters (Current number: 7-11):  Mike Rodriguez

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 7-3): Olivier Aubin Mercier

Second Fight (Current number: 9-10):

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 5-9):  Al Iaquinta

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 12-9): Khabib Nurmagomedov

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- What is a fair buyrate for this event? This is Khabib's first shot as a headliner in any capacity (although he did co-main the NYE card) so right off the jump, we're in uncharted waters. Tony Ferguson has headlined events in the past and his first PPV fight vs a guy with no real name value did in the low 200K range. Joanna Champion as a co-main event has been apart of some major shows but without the BIG main event, she's been a comfortable support for events that do in the 300K range. This isn't the big numbers of 2015 and 2016 either so what's a fair buy rate? I'm thinking low 300Ks would be a success for this show. This is an awesome card people SHOULD be excited for. If they're not excited for it then I just dunno what to say to y'all, man.

2- On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it that Conor faces the winner?

3- What can be said of this main event? I don't think it's unrealistic to refer to Ferguson vs Nurmagomedov as the most proven pure talent fight since Garbrandt vs Dillashaw back in November. It might even blow by that fight as well. There's seriously no title fight I've been as excited for as this one; Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson is the title fight that MMA fans have been waiting for for the most part since the end of 2016. Khabib vs T-Ferg features the best wrestler at 155 lbs vs the division's most compelling submission grappler. Two of the best cardio machines in the entire UFC clashing over five rounds, both with punishing styles in their own capacities. So much is made of Khabib's wrestling but the fact is that his striking on the feet is no joke either. Khabib can generate power in short distances and he's got this weird smothered forearm-y thing that he uses from time to time which does some damage (he kind of buzzed Thiago Tavares with one prior to the finish). On the other hand, Tony Ferguson is sort of the total package without the fight finishing one shit one kill power. He just overwhelms and overworks dudes with volume, intensity, a variety of attacks from a variety of different angles and a total "Not give a fuck" style of fighting. Get taken down? Whatevs. Get mounted? Whatevs. Get rocked? Whatevs. Ferguson is just one of those guys who has a tremendous belief in himself with the ability It's not entirely unrealistic to refer to this as a battle of stubborn (Khabib Nurmagomedov) vs creativity (Tony Ferguson). Khabib has a gameplan and he's going to try to implement it whereas Tony Ferguson seems like the sort of guy who ha sno idea what he plans on doing from one second to the next. He's the sort of dude who can make reads on the fly, adjust and adapt and find new ways to flummox a dude over the course of a twenty five minute fight. Making matters even more complicated is we have no idea if we've seen the best version of either guy yet.

4-  Can Ferguson get Khabib's neck ONE time and if so, is that all he'll need?

5- We know that Ferguson can get taken down. Kevin Lee, Danny Castillo, Yves Edwards all found ways to get Ferguson down even if just momentarily. He's very comfortable and adept in scrambles and I get the feeling even vs Khabib, he's not going to panic if he winds up on his back for a stretch of time. My question is----will Ferguson be willing to get taken down if it puts him in position to challenge with submissions? Against Danny Castillo, Ferguson was taken down quite a bit but always seemed to use that to chase a d'arce or a guillotine choke. If desperate, will Ferguson be willing to wrestle to try and find a submission attempt? Similarly what are Khabib's submission chops? He had opportunities I felt against Barboza to score a sub. I remember him having a shot or two against Darrell Horcher as well. Could he sub Ferguson?

6- It sounds like it was Joanna's idea to try to reclaim her title vs Rose Namajunas again. It's not the worst idea in the world but given her struggles with weight, why even risk it? You have to at least admire Joanna's heart and fighting spirit to give it another go at a weight class she's clearly uncomfortable with going forward.

7- I don't know if this is by design or what but I like the idea of using the 3rd fight on these cards to try and showcase a potential future star. It's somewhat slick; putting them in a PPV card in a high capacity spot where you can, in theory, showcase them to a new audience. It's an imperfect act that at least has some purpose behind it. Sean O'Malley at UFC 222 was a good use of the concept, same for Tai Tuivasa I suppose at 221. If the UFC website is to be believed then Dern is third on the PPV card for UFC 224 as well. Here you have Calvin Kattar, who has been ultra impressive through two UFC fights, getting the 3rd billing vs the fantastic Renato Moicano. It's a really good FW fight and with Ortega and Holloway mowing through every 145er on two legs; the winner of this fight could get a quick bump up. Moicano probably has had the most success of anybody vs Ortega so a rematch would be pretty juicy.

8- If you had to describe Anthony Pettis' legacy in one word, what would you use?

9- The UFC tends to be a pretty reactive organization when it comes to problems with fighters but some of the labor hawks they've had on their roster tend to not get much blowback. I wonder if that'll change with Al Iaquinta who by all accounts they really don't like. If he loses, it might get a touch awkward.

10- Mike Rodriguez has a lot of pressure on his shoulders after Magomed Anakaleav's failure in his UFC debut. 205 needs more guys getting their careers off on the right foot and Rodriguez can be another guy in that mix, fresh off of a 30 second DWTCS win. Trains with Joe Lauzon, has a 9-2 record and could be valuable as an East Coast attraction going forward.

11- Can somebody at 115 lbs please finish a fight? I'm not asking for too much here!

12- The failures of the likes of Elias Thoeodoru and Hakeem Dawodu turns the attention back to Olivier Aubin-Mercier as the young fighter by whom Canada turns its lonely eyes to. There's no doubt Olivier Aubin-Mercier can grapple as he's found plenty of success on the mat with four submission wins in his six UFC wins----but the problem is what happens when the grappling doesn't work. Mercier has showcased solid striking in the past but it's so infrequent and inconsistent that it's hard to really get a feel for how good he is. There's an element of panic to his game. Sometimes he doesn't respond well to pressure in his face and his first inclination is to grab at something and hope like hell the fight goes to the ground. Evan Dunham has only been submitted once in his UFC career, vs Donald Cerrone in a fight where he was pretty much dead on the feet at that point. This is a really good test for OAM.

Must Win

1- Tony Ferguson

I LOVE Tony Ferguson as a fighter and wish more people loved him. I even enjoy his stupid zany off the wall madness that he tends to produce outside of the cage. In a sport searching for guys who are "different", Ferguson is different and he's just so weird. On the other hand, it's obvious to me that the UFC doesn't see Ferguson the way I do----and perhaps the fans see him in the same spectrum the UFC does. Ferguson is not the chosen one at 155 lbs; that would be Khabib Nurmagomedov who may be the key to some Russian windfall. Ferguson is a bit like RDA; reliable and dependable but not "the guy" as the uFC attempts to find out who "the guy" at 155 lbs is. Ferguson needs to not be like every other Khabib opponent or risk the long road back that RDA had.

2- Michael Chiesa

So there's a little bit of an issue here with Michael Chiesa. Chiesa is clearly a good fighter and he's the kind of guy who can rack up win after win vs the mid levels of the division. Wins over Jim Miller, Beneil Dariush and Al Iaquinta (before he developed into the fighter he is today) suggest he can be one of the best fighters at 155 lbs. That said, every single time he gets a step up, he gets quickly checked back to base level. Losses to Masvidal, Joe Lauzon and Kevin Lee all put him back to trying to prove himself in a division where a backwards step can be a killer. THIS is the sort of fight that Chiesa has to win; it's a somewhat faded version of a guy who has become more of a struggling grappler over the past few years. This is a fight he pretty much has to win if he plans on really making a run at 155 lbs.

3- Karolina Kowalkiewicz

I really like Karolina K. I think it says a lot about you as a person if you DON'T like Karolina K. She's a fun fighter who has good action fights and has this great personality. The downside is that after wins over the likes of Rose Namajunas and Randa Markos, she lost two straight to the very good Claudia Gadelha and then champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She rebounded vs Jodie Esquibel but whether Esquibel is UFC quality remains to be seen at this point. Karolina gets Felice Herrig in what is on paper a UFC title contender fight.

Five Can't Miss Fights

1- Tony Ferguson vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

2- Zhabit Magomedsharipov vs Kyle Bochniak

3- Joanna Jedrzejcyk vs Rose Namajunas

4- Paul Felder vs Al Iaquinta

5- Ray Borg vs Brandon Moreno