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Fights to Make: UFC Belfast and UFC Sao Paulo

Ryan Bader (beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira) vs. Daniel Cormier: Well, Bader probably got the most important win of his career here by pretty much running through Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - Bader’s beaten fighters that are probably better, but this was the last fight of Bader’s contract, and he may now be in line for a title shot, so it was pretty crucial that he got this win for money and glory’s sake. So now, assuming Bader re-signs with UFC, he should get Daniel Cormier next, whether or not Cormier beats Anthony Johnson next month - Bader/Cormier is pretty much the only fresh matchup left at the top of the light heavyweight division, so if Cormier wins, Bader is the next logical challenger, and if Cormier loses, then I guess Johnson can...I don’t know, wait for Jon Jones or something.

Gegard Mousasi (beat Uriah Hall) vs. Chris Weidman: Mousasi ran through Uriah Hall, maybe even easier than expected, avenging his one big recent loss with a first-round TKO. Mousasi’s the clear best guy outside of the “big four” contenders at 185, so it’s a matter of which of those guys you want Mousasi to face - Romero seems set for the next title shot, and I like the idea of the Rockhold/Jacare rematch that was briefly booked, so let’s go with Mousasi against Chris Weidman.

Claudia Gadelha (beat Cortney Casey) vs. Aisling Daly: Gadelha pretty much laid a beat down on Cortney Casey for three rounds, re-affirming that she’s the clear top contender to Joanna Jedrzejczyk. At this point, challengers for Jedrzejczyk are few, so I’d rather not put Gadelha in the spot of picking contenders off at the moment, so let’s go a bit down the rankings and put Gadelha against Aisling Daly, who’s a solid vet coming off a win in her native Ireland last year.

Kyoji Horiguchi (beat Ali Bagautinov) vs. Wilson Reis: It went under the radar, given that it was somewhat deep on the prelims of the Belfast card, but Kyoji Horiguchi kept showing improvement in a rather one-sided win over fellow former title challenger Ali Bagautinov. Horiguchi showed a well-rounded game, and given that he’s probably shown the most improvement of anyone since losing to Demetrious Johnson, he’s probably one of the likelier guys to get a title rematch. So let’s put him against someone else still in the mix - Wilson Reis was briefly slated to get a title shot against Johnson in July before Mighty Mouse got injured, so let’s go with him.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (lost to Ryan Bader) vs. Corey Anderson/Sean O’Connell (Dec. 9th) winner: I thought Nogueira had looked decent - at least per his standards - in his last two fights, but that came to a crashing halt here, as Bader pretty much mauled him at will and made it look like Little Nog should probably hang it up. If he sticks around, it should definitely be in a gatekeeper role, and Corey Anderson is one of the few rising talents that could break into the 205 title picture, at least after he’s done with Sean O’Connell in Albany next month. And if O’Connell pulls off the upset, who knows what we’re doing anymore.

Krzysztof Jotko (beat Thales Leites) vs. Sam Alvey/Nate Marquardt (Jan. 28th) winner: Jotko showed that his run up the middleweight ranks should be taken seriously, as he survived early against Thales Leites and was wearing out the former title challenger by the end. I’d still give Jotko another fight or two in the top-twentyish range, and the winner of the Alvey/Marquardt fight in Denver would fit that bill (as well as be a weird, fun one) so let’s go with that.

Uriah Hall (lost to Gegard Mousasi) vs. Marcelo Guimaraes: Well, I have no idea where you go from here with Uriah Hall, since the biggest win of his career has now been nullified and there’s less reason than ever to get excited about his exciting bursts of explosive striking. So, let’s just have him go out there and smoke a dude - particularly since Hall suddenly is coming off of three straight losses - and let’s pull Marcelo Guimaraes’s name out of a hat, sure.

Kamaru Usman (beat Warlley Alves) vs. Gunnar Nelson: Usman’s win over Alves was a bit of a coming-out party - it’s not surprising that the Nigerian was able to wear out and beat Alves, but he did a surprising amount of it on the feet, showing some much-improved striking to complement his world-class wrestling. It’s time to throw Usman among the contenders, and there’s a few different options near the bottom part of the top fifteen - let’s go with Gunnar Nelson, assuming Nelson is healthy, since Usman’s wrestling against Nelson’s BJJ would make a fun ground match-up, and the striking would be pretty interesting as well.

Thomas Almeida (beat Albert Morales) vs. Pedro Munhoz (beat Justin Scoggins): Almeida got his expected win over Albert Morales, though it was a fun one - now Almeida can work his way back up to a title shot, though he appears to be the odd man out as far as matchmaking is shaking out in the short term. So for now, let’s do a fun prospect-versus-prospect match against Pedro Munhoz, who got a sudden submission win over Justin Scoggins earlier on the Sao Paulo undercard.

Thales Leites (lost to Krzysztof Jotko) vs. Tom Breese: Leites looked to be settling into a gatekeeper role, but any hope of working his way back up the ladder seems pretty much over with a loss to Jotko. So let’s put Leites against another prospect on the way up, and though it might be a big ask, let’s go with Breese; the British uber-prospect is about to make his debut at 185 after a flat loss to Sean Strickland at welterweight in June stalled his momentum.

Kevin Lee (beat Magomed Mustafaev) vs. Bobby Green: It was a fun back-and-forth fight, but Kevin Lee was able to work through some trouble on the feet against Magomed Mustafaev and once again flash his impressive grappling game, getting takedowns against the Russian before choking him unconscious. Lee’s on the fringes of the top fifteen, and so is oft-injured Bobby Green, so let’s put that fight together, since it’ll be a fun striker-versus-grappler matchup with a ridiculous amount of machismo in the cage.

Alexander Volkov (beat Tim Johnson) vs. Stefan Struve: I don’t think Volkov has championship upside, but the former Bellator champ’s narrow win over Tim Johnson shows that he can at least hang with most of UFC’s talent at heavyweight. Let’s just be cheeky and put the 6′7″ Volkov against the 7-footer Struve to get it out of the way, and then go from there.

Cezar Ferreira (beat Jack Hermansson) vs. Elias Theodorou: After looking like a complete bust as a prospect, Cezar “Mutante” has suddenly re-tooled his game and is riding a wave of momentum at 185. Elias Theodorou is another fringe top-fifteenish prospect, so that’d be a solid fight to make next.

Justin Scoggins (lost to Pedro Munhoz) vs. Michael McDonald: Scoggins’s bantamweight debut was a weird one as far as what to take away from it - the South Carolinian’s striking was on point for pretty much the entire fight, but then he slipped and that was literally all it took for Munhoz to jump onto his neck for the fight-ending guillotine. So Scoggins could still be a going concern, even if this does continue a track record of Scoggins sort of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Michael McDonald is a fellow young fighter in a similar sort of “put up or shut up” not quite a prospect, not quite a contender status, so let’s do that.

Ali Bagautinov (lost to Kyoji Horiguchi) vs. John Moraga: Bagautinov’s now just sort of treading water since losing a title fight to Demetrious Johnson in 2014 - he’s obviously still a top ten or so fighter, but can’t really break back through into the ranks of the top contenders. John Moraga’s another former title challenger that Bagautinov hasn’t faced yet, so let’s do that fight.

Sergio Moraes (beat Zak Ottow) vs. Colby Covington/Bryan Barberena (Dec. 17) winner: Moraes has had a sneaky successful run now, going undefeated since his time on season one of TUF: Brazil, even if he hasn’t really been active enough to get a ton of momentum going. His janky striking game and his high-level grappling would make for a solid fight against rising wrestlers Covington and Barberena, depending who wins on the card in Sacramento next month.

Zak Cummings (beat Alexander Yakovlev) vs. Roan Carneiro: Although he’s been relying on his striking more lately, Cummings re-affirmed his rep as a tricky submission artist by tapping out Yakovlev with a funky armbar. There’s a whole glut of grindy veteran welterweights out there - Roan Carneiro is as good a choice as any for Cummings to face.

Stevie Ray (beat Ross Pearson) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier/Drew Dober (Dec. 10) winner: Scotland’s Ray regained a bit of his prospect shine with a win over Ross Pearson, even if things never got quite into high gear during a decision win that was pretty much entirely on the feet. The winner of next month’s fight between Aubin-Mercier and Dober would be a solid next bout, particularly if it’s Aubin-Mercier, which would make for a solid striker-versus-grappler prospect fight.

Warlley Alves (lost to Kamaru Usman) vs. Dominique Steele: I think Alves still has some prospect shine, but this is getting frustrating - I thought Alves fought a lot smarter here in conserving his energy, but Usman still made him gas badly by the time the third round came around. At this point, Alves just needs a win, and Dominique Steele, who’s a solid fighter but on the UFC cut line after a 1-3 run, would be a fun next fight.

Jack Marshman (beat Magnus Cedenblad) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior/Marvin Vettori (Dec. 30) winner: This was an impressive as hell debut for Wales’s Marshman - it was unclear how well his fairly basic, but tough, striking game was going to translate to UFC, particularly against a really tough first opponent, but after a bunch of early trouble, Marshman blasted Cedenblad for a brutal knockout. Marshman at least deserves a test against a top middleweight prospect next, and the winner between Carlos and Vettori at UFC 207 will do the trick.

Ross Pearson (lost to Stevie Ray) vs. John Makdessi/Lando Vannata (Dec. 10) loser: Despite being a pretty prominent fighter on a lot of UFC’s European cards, Pearson is suddenly firmly on the UFC cut line after three straight losses. His striking game is firmly at the point of diminishing returns, and the loser of next month’s Makdessi/Vannata bout will be in sort of the same place - one-dimensional strikers that are fun, but having trouble getting over the hump.

Tim Johnson (lost to Alexander Volkov) vs. Derrick Lewis/Shamil Abdurakhimov (Dec. 9) loser: Johnson’s loss to Volkov was a close one, but the North Dakotan is still firmly in the mix at the fringes of the top fifteen. The loser of the main event in Albany next month will be in the same boat, so hell, let’s do that fight and try to further shake out the middle of the heavyweight division.

Johnny Eduardo (beat Manvel Gamburyan) vs. Joe Soto: Eduardo looked good here despite being almost 40, picking apart Gamburyan on the feet before putting him away. That’ll probably be enough to stay at the back end of the top fifteen, and he’d be a solid test to see if veteran Joe Soto can keep his momentum going after two straight UFC wins.

Magnus Cedenblad (lost to Jack Marshman) vs. Vitor Miranda: Cedenblad quietly had a ton of momentum at middleweight, but Marshman suddenly ended that with a second-round knockout. Brazil’s Miranda is in a similar spot - the veteran kickboxer had a surprising amount of momentum before being dominated by Chris Camozzi in May - so that’s a fine next fight.

Cortney Casey (lost to Claudia Gadelha) vs. Bec Rawlings: Casey was game, but just outgunned against Gadelha, one of the top fighters at 115. She’s a fringe top-fifteen action fighter, and Australia’s Rawlings in the same spot, so that could turn into a pretty fun brawl.

Magomed Mustafaev (lost to Kevin Lee) vs. Reza Madadi: A disappointing loss to Mustafaev, who’s still an interesting prospect, since he has a ton of talent and still throws a ridiculous amount of heat when striking. Reza Madadi would be a solid next fight - he’s someone Mustafaev can probably piece up on the feet, but has enough grappling skill that he may be able to give the Russian some trouble.

Brett Johns (beat Kwan Ho Kwak) vs. Rob Font/Alejandro Perez (Dec. 3) winner: Johns proved why he was one of the top talents available at bantamweight, flashing pretty much every skill he has in his UFC debut, as well as fighting back from some trouble against Kwan Ho Kwak. Johns can move up the bantamweight ladder quickly, and the winner of the Font/Perez fight at the TUF Finale in a few weeks would be a solid next step up.

Justin Ledet (beat Mark Godbeer) vs. Marcin Tybura: I’m still not sure what to make of Justin Ledet, but I’m intrigued - a boxer by trade, he seemed to even shock himself by going for and getting the submission win over Godbeer. Marcin Tybura’s another impressive rising heavyweight, so let’s just throw them against each other and see what happens.

Artem Lobov (beat Teruto Ishihara) vs. Gabriel Benitez: I have no idea if it says more about Ishihara than anything, or if McGregor teammate Lobov is improving, but a clear decision win over a rising prospect showed that Lobov can at least hang around as a low-level featherweight gatekeeper that can have some fun fights. Mexico’s Benitez, fresh off a win over Sam Sicilia in September, would make a solid opponent in the same sort of vein.

Marion Reneau (beat Milana Dudieva) vs. Katlyn Chookagian: Reneau looked good here, showing some newfound aggression against Dudieva before putting her away in the third. A bout against Katlyn Chookagian, a rising prospect coming off a loss to Liz Carmouche at UFC 205, would be a solid next fight to see who can earn another chance to move back up the ladder.

Luis Henrique (beat Christian Colombo) vs. Curtis Blaydes: Henrique is an interesting heavyweight prospect, simply because he’s ridiculously young and has enough wrestling to be one of the better takedown artists in the division. A fight against Blaydes would be an interesting one, just because he’s another massive young fighter with some wrestling skill, and the two prospects can square off to see who can try to move quickly up the division ranks.

Gadzhimurad Antigulov (beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima) vs. Ion Cutelaba/Jared Cannonier (Dec. 3) winner: Antigulov’s win over de Lima was a fun sprint, as the two just sort of went all-offense before Antigulov clamped on a guillotine in a little over a minute. The winner of the Cutelaba/Cannonier bout on the upcoming TUF Finale would make for another fun striker-versus-grappler bout in the middle of the 205 ranks.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (lost to Gadzhimurad Antigulov) vs Francimar Barroso (lost to Darren Stewart): Both de Lima against Barroso got blown out by debutantes in fairly short order, so that’s as good a fight as any to make next - plus you have a solid striker against grappler dynamic.

Darren Stewart (beat Francimar Barroso) vs. Joachim Christensen/Bojan Mihajlovic (Jan. 15) winner: A controversial accidental headbutt helped, but Stewart got a quick and impressive UFC win, although the Brit is probably still raw enough that he should be brought along slowly - particularly to see if he can hang as an undersized light heavyweight, or should move down to 185. The Christensen/Mihajlovic fight in Phoenix should give a solid next opponent, since both guys are 205-sized if not particularly skilled.

Zak Ottow (lost to Sergio Moraes) vs. James Moontasri/Alex Morono (Dec. 17) loser: Ottow’s now a front-runner for most average UFC fighter - dude is solid everywhere, but neither weak nor impressive in any aspect, so you can just stick him against any middle-tier welterweight out there and it’ll be a fine fight, pretty much. The Moontasri/Morono loser in Sacramento is one of those, yes.

Jack Hermansson (lost to Cezar Ferreira) vs. Bradley Scott: Hermansson’s been a solid addition to middleweight, but a one-sided loss to Cezar “Mutante” is a bit damaging in terms of the European vet’s foreign momentum. Hermansson/Scott seems like a random fight that would happen on a European undercard, so let’s go with that.

Albert Morales (lost to Thomas Almeida) vs. Davey Grant: For being so raw, Morales did fine against a top contender like Almeida, even if the knockout at the end got pretty brutal. A fight against England’s Davey Grant would be a next solid move - both guys are giant for the division, and it’d be Morales’s striking against Grant’s submission game.

Teruto Ishihara (lost to Artem Lobov) vs. Yaotzin Meza: Well, shit. “Yashabo” has a ton of athleticism and striking power, and while his reliance on the knockout probably figured to catch up with him at some point, it’s disappointing it couldn’t even get him past Lobov. Ishihara needs a lower-level fight now, and Meza seems to be the lower-level gatekeeper du jour at featherweight, so that’s as good a next bout as any.

Alexander Yakovlev (lost to Zak Cummings) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim: After two straight losses, Yakovlev might be on the cut line, but if not, let’s put him against Korea’s Lim, who’s also firmly on the UFC fringe at this point. Plus Yakovlev’s technical game would be a fun contrast to Lim’s aggression and horsepower.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (beat Charlie Ward) vs. Jessin Ayari: Alhassan’s debut win over Ward was definitely something, as the two just threw bombs at each other, and Alhassan’s ridiculous athleticism and power won out. Alhassan’s intriguing, but he’s gotta keep fighting lower level guys for a while - Germany’s Ayari, who won an unimpressive debut in Hamburg, is a guy in that sort of mold.

Mark Godbeer (lost to Justin Ledet) vs. Chase Sherman: A disappointing debut for Godbeer, a solid British vet, as his lack of a ground game got completely exposed by Ledet. Sherman’s the other guy who lost to Ledet in the UFC thus far, and that’d make for a fun heavyweight brawl.

Amanda Cooper (beat Anna Elmose) vs. Kailin Curran/Jamie Moyle (Dec. 3) winner: I’m not really sure what to make of Cooper’s win over Elmose, as both girls looked athletic and aggressive rather than, well, good. Cooper’s still purely a lower-tier strawweight, and the winner of the upcoming Curran/Moyle fight will be in the same boat.

Kwan Ho Kwak (lost to Brett Johns) vs. Joey Gomez: Kwak had his moments against Johns, and remains a top prospect, but his wrestling game and cardio still need some work. In the meantime, Gomez would make for a fun striking match between two guys in need of a UFC win, so that’s a good next move.

Christian Colombo (lost to Luis Henrique) vs. Chris De La Rocha: Colombo is somewhat skilled for being so giant, at least as a striker, but his lack of a grappling game as well as his being absolutely glacial will probably doom him. If Chris De La Rocha is still under contract, that’s a fine enough fight between two giant, aging heavyweights who probably aren’t up to UFC snuff.

Milana Dudieva (lost to Marion Reneau) vs. Veronica Macedo: Dudieva has some skills to like - mainly her wrestling - but she didn’t really stand out in a loss to Reneau. If she sticks around, it’ll be against another fighter coming off a loss on the UFC fringe, and Macedo, who had a debut loss to Ashlee Evans-Smith in September, works for that.

Anna Elmose (lost to Amanda Cooper) vs. Tina Lahdemaki: Elmose looked better here than she did against Germaine de Randamie, but she’s still probably going to be 0-2 and out in the UFC. If not, she’ll have to face a super-fringy opponent - let’s go with Tina Lahdemaki if she’s still around, as Lahdemaki hasn’t been seen since losing the first women’s strawweight fight in UFC history, a July 2014 bout against Claudia Gadelha.

Charlie Ward (lost to Abdul Razak Alhassan) vs. CM Punk: Fuck it. Ward’s fight with Alhassan was a fun brawl, but Ward did nothing to show that he isn’t only here because he’s a Conor McGregor teammate, and he might be the worst fighter on the roster. So, if CM Punk wants another fight, Ward’s as good a choice as any, even though he’d run through Punk like anyone - maybe at least we can drag Conor into things to at least create some drama.