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Bitcoin’s hard-money thesis is colliding with 5% Treasury yields
Make CryptoSlate preferred on Bitcoin was created as a response to the kind of debt-financed monetary disorder now playing out across global bond markets. The original thesis was that when governments borrowed recklessly and debased their currencies, hard-money assets would absorb the resulting demand. What that thesis left unresolved is the possibility that the debt spiral could tighten…
The trade war and ongoing negotiations between the world's two largest economies is a looming danger, Larry Fink says — but not for its immediate impact on markets or growth.
China is dumping some of its Treasury holdings in a desperate bid to raise cash to support its ailing markets, a move that "raises serious questions" about the country's ability to finance the U.S. federal deficit, CNN reports.
By Chris Martenson Posted Monday, 24 October 2011
Why the US Should Care About Europe
At the very core of the global nuclear money reactor are US Treasurys and the dollar. If the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency wanes or even collapses, then the scope and pace of the likely disruptions will be enormous. Of course, we'll be glad to have as much forewarning as possible.
Accordingly, it is my belief that if the contagion spreads from Greece to Portugal (or Italy or Spain), and then to the big banks of France and Germany in such a way that they fail, then rather than strengthening the dollar's role (as nearly everyone expects), we should reserve some concern for the idea that the contagion will instead jump the pond and chew its way through the US financial superstructure.
While I am expecting an initial strengthening of the dollar in response to a euro decline, I believe this will only be a temporary condition.
The predicament is that the fiscal condition of the US is just as bad as anywhere, and we'd do well to ignore the idea, widely promulgated in the popular press, that the US is in relatively better shape than some other countries. 'Relatively' is a funny word. In this case, it's kind of meaningless, as all the contestants in this horse race are likely destined for the glue factory, no matter how well they place.
While there are certain to be a lot of false starts and unpredictable twists and turns along the way, eventually the precarious fiscal situation of the US will reach a critical mass of recognition. Before that date, the US will be perceived as a bastion of financial safety, and afterwards everyone will wonder how anyone could have really held that view.
A good recent example of how swiftly sovereign fortunes can change: One day, everything was fine in Greece, which enjoyed paying interest rates on its national debt that were a few skinny basis points (hundredths of a percent) above Germany’s. A few short months later, Greece was paying over 150% interest on its one-year paper.
What I am asking is this: What happens when the same sweep of recognition visits the US Treasury markets? Is such a turn of events even possible or thinkable? Here's one scenario.
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