Bank of Canada says... Variable or Fixed?
The Bank of Canada has released the second of eight interest rate announcements of 2014 - which often sparks the discussion, to lock-in or not to lock-in?
The announcement detailed that in the last quarter of 2013, the country saw annualized growth stronger than expected and the first quarter numbers for 2014 are expected to be weaker (deemed weather related); exports as a whole remain weak, as well as investment in business; and inflation is well in check due to increased competition in the retail sector. These are key determining factors in interest rate trends we see across the country.
The Bank of Canada has kept its overnight lending rate the same for the last 3.5 years. It is a widely held belief that the BOC overnight rate will not change upwards until mid-2015.
What does this mean if you are in the middle of arranging a mortgage? Variable and short term rates still look very attractive opposed to locking in for longer terms.
If all goes according to plan and everything falls into place in Canadian economy, then economists are predicting that the Bank of Canada will start their upward trend to raising rates in mid-2015. This may scare some people into locking in now but this estimate is all based on the assumption that everything goes as planned and things continue to get better in slow but steady manner. Any bump in the road globally can set this estimate off course or even lower rates in the near future.
It is my opinion that taking the significant discount on a variable, or a shorter fixed term, will reap you interest rate savings more so then a 5 year fixed rate today. I offer this advice only if your risk profile allows you to incur the greater risk. It is a practical plan for many, however if you are unsure at any time, or would like to have peace of mind - as usual I am happy to analyze whether you have the capacity to sustain this.
Read my last post on the topic (Jan 30): http://jeffattwooll-kwmortgage.tumblr.com/post/75068717443/fixed-vs-variable-debate
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