Spip-Sliding From Pandemic To War. 2022
The thing about pandemics is... They cost money and they cost money with little return. The thing about war is... It costs money, but it makes money. So, as the itchy fingers move forward they are already putting wheels in motion for flexing their muscles.
The usual players will be looking to expand their influence if not their geographical control. The US, The UK, China, Russia, Etc... Not so much the EU, but France is usually keen to enter conflicts, Germany less so these days, North and South Korea backed by their proxy master game-playing titans may well feature, and of course there is always the possibility of a left-field surprise.
Waning economies and the tensions brought about, if not at the least exasperated by the pandemic, may sway any logical thinking, if it doesn't override it altogether.
What will the conflict be? Well, it could be multiple conflicts. Russia and the US have long since been at loggerheads, for no other reason than they fancy a fight, but just like two school yard bullies, they prefer picking on someone that they know they can overpower, not so much are they keen on picking on someone who might 'serve them their arse'. The US will probably have most of Europe on their side, and China may just have Russia on their side, but the rhetoric of more talk and less action will always play into the hands of any aggressor, and the EU and the UN are famous for talking, and possibly just that, negotiating a nothingness until the threat is not so much neutralised as it becomes tomorrow's chip paper.
Russia holds aces over energy, especially where Europe is concerned, and China holds aces over global manufacture, at affordable prices (even if the quality of its exports is often somewhat dubious). China also owes the US lots and lots of cash, and the export of Russian energy are its strongest contribution to GDP. So, we are left with a bit of a mess. If your strength of your economy depends on sating your supposed enemy, then at what point do you jeopardise the status quo?
There is a little role reversal here with two of the main protagonists, there is no doubting that Vladimir Putin is a stronger character than Joe Biden, a mirror image of what the world saw during the face-off of the Cuban missile crisis in the early 1960's, where the ghostly figure of Nikita Khrushchev 'blinked' when the forthright, whirling dervish John F. Kennedy promised that there would be no backing down over the strategic missile placements in Cuba. Putin has already shown with Crimea that he is willing to act, whilst others ruminate, and that may yet continue with Ukraine, as tensions run high again. Russia feels threatened with the proximity of military might just as the US did all those decades ago.
War is more of a natural state of play as opposed to peace, there has in a historical context been very little peace in the world. Europe as a blood stained warring continent has only achieved relative peace since the end of the second world war due to the amalgamation of similarity, in the same vein that monarchist led territories used to rule with the inter marring of royal members.
Empire building is not over, it is just less achievable, not just in terms of land, but in terms of business, and influence also. The bigger the beasts get, the more they devour, and the more they devour, the less that remains for anyone else.
The pursuit of global dominance continues, and in this age where every inch of land is known, little can be left to the imagination. The idea of empire building itself is these days more of a resistance against empire shrinking, of course this is a judgement on your adversaries' control as much as your own.
The economic idea of inflation, and the basic idea that any monetary system should increase, get bigger, grow, is applied to most human situations by the greedy. There should always be more, for if there is not more, there could be the same, and the same can soon become less, and no greedy person that has ever lived wants less. It is this very desire to put a quantity and a price on possessions that spurs these greedy folk on, often they are competing among themselves, but they judge their glory by the excesses of others. This is a race to the bottom, and will never be a mantra for popularism, as by its nature it excludes the masses from elitists. The only problem with greed, if you wish to justify it by saying that it incentivises people, is that it knows no end, greed does not stop, it does not rest, it is in simple terms an addiction. Greed exists only to become more, regardless of whom it affects, regardless of what it inflicts. Just like the Coronavirus, It would seem the troubles yet to come are essentially the troubles that have been before, the troubles that have always been. So in 2022 try not to be greedy, and don't empower those that are, they are every bit your foe as any virus could ever be.
Happy new year from everyone at Get Fawked.
