#voting trends

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

IF STATE MOST RED WHY REPUBLICAN NO WIN??

Vaush explains how population density/distribution relates to voting trends, gerrymandering, "tyranny of the majority" lies, and how conservatives are desperately trying to retain control over their electorates.

Lots of cool data visualization was shown, some of which you can see here:

Here are some that weren't shown that tell the same story:

[irsmc]

CIRCLE Study of SMC Student Voting Patterns

By Christopher Gibson

Like most of you, I first assumed C.I.R.C.L.E. to be either an organization planning to cut James Bond in half with a laser beam or some robe-wearing offshoot sect of the Illuminati.  I was pleasantly surprised to learn that the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement conducts research on civic and political engagement in the American education system. Recently SMC participated in a study conducted by CIRCLE on student voting rates for the 2012 Federal Election. To perform the study CIRCLE obtained, with SMC’s permission, data on SMC students through external data sources.  Here is the report (PDF).

Some of the findings discussed in the study are:

According to the CIRCLE study, 62.8%† of the eligible student population at SMC was registered to vote, and 69.6%† of those SMC students who were registered to vote actually voted.

The trends for SMC groups’ voting participation reflect the trends for the nation.  Older people tend to vote at higher rates than younger people, even among students.

According to this study, 19% of SMC students were absentee voters, which is in line with some national trends , although that national number does not focus on students alone, as this study does.

The results for SMC can be compared to the overall group comparison results here.

One interesting aspect of this study is that SMC did not provide CIRCLE with any institutional data directly.  Circle used three external data sources (Student Clearinghouse; Catalist; and NCES’s IPEDS) to complete the analysis, thus enabling them to use the same method for the more than 260 participating campuses across the country.

For a complete list of what was pulled from which data source, and the methodology used to arrive at their conclusions, consult CIRCLE’s Report FAQ.

The report provided by CIRCLE goes on to list recommendations to increase student engagement in the voting process, including suggestions like “Get political, not partisan” to encourage discussion without appearing biased, and “Improving voter registration efforts on campus may help to increase voter turnout” because, given the high likelihood of registered voters actually turning up to vote, more registrations leads to more actual votes. 

†These numbers do not reflect the 10340 students who blocked their records from being used for research.  For the purposes of this study, it is assumed that voting registration and participation happen at the same rate for students who block such uses of their data as for students who do not.

[thirdwaythinktank]

The Election Results No One is Talking About

by Michelle Diggles

Which is the most important result of Tuesday’s election?

A. A Republican governor won a landslide election in a blue state.

B. A Democrat was elected governor in a purple state during intense criticism of a new federal government program.

C. An outspoken liberal Democrat was elected mayor in a big city — where opposition parties had been in power for 20 years.

D. An education funding amendment lost in a mountain state.

If you said D, you’re correct.

On Tuesday, Amendment 66 was defeated in Colorado, with preliminary results suggesting a drubbing of two-to-one opposed. It would have improved education funding with slight tax increases and changed Colorado’s flat tax to a two-tiered, progressive structure.

The goal was a major overhaul of education finance, with reduced disparities at the local level and increased spending — including funding for early childhood programs, rural education and at-risk youth programs

Millions of dollars poured into the state to support the amendment. High-profile backing came from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Melinda Gates. But the more than $10 million spent in support of the amendment wasn’t enough to convince skeptical voters.

The defeat of Amendment 66 should worry Democrats. This is about as close as you can get to the main thrust of the Democratic Party’s progressive agenda: raise taxes on wealthier people to fund investments in the future.

Even in liberal Boulder County, however, the measure barely eked out a majority. Outside of Boulder and Denver, the measure failed miserably, including in largely Latino counties, like Adams (35 percent in support to 65 percent opposed), Arapahoe (35 percent to 65 percent), and Pueblo. Pueblo, you may recall, is part of state Senate District 3 — where Democratic state Senator Angela Giron was recalled in September over her vote to ban high-capacity magazine clips.

After President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election and recent Democratic victories in New York City and Virginia, many on the left suggested that the country is becoming overwhelmingly liberal. But the Colorado elections are a cautionary tale.

The big, bold education investments requested — a key pillar of the progressive agenda — were rejected by two-thirds of Colorado’s voters, and quashed in key Hispanic counties.

It’s tempting to blame these results on an off-year electorate. But the truth is likely more complex. Coloradoans have passed a great deal of progressive change in a short time — universal background checks for gun purchases, civil unions, marijuana legalization, in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants, and mail-in ballots statewide. Perhaps voters felt a proposed major restructure of education financing funded by increasing taxes was, finally, too much change.

The federal government shutdown and these recent recalls of state legislatures who had support stricter gun laws may have created an environment conducive to the status quo in the wake of partisan struggles. Or maybe the problems with the Affordable Care Act website made voters leery of big government programs or major restructuring of government services.

Whatever the motivation of Colorado voters, two things are clear. First, they weren’t ready to raise taxes to fund widely popular education investments. Second, between New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s 51 percent support from Latinos in his re-election victory and tepid support in Colorado for education investments in heavily Hispanic counties, it would be unwise for Democrats to assume Latinos are overwhelmingly liberal — or will be reliable Democratic partisans in future elections.

This piece was originally published via Reuters. Michelle Diggles is a Senior Political Analyst for the Social Policy & Politics Program at Third Way.To read more of her work visit www.thirdway.org.

[thirdwaythinktank]

If millennials want to change the system, they can

The partial shutdown of the federal government has left nearly every American feeling disheartened about the state of American politics. But the millennial generation, wrote journalist Ron Fournier in the National Journal, are "highly empowered, impatient, and disgusted with politics today." What's more, he observed, they don't fit naturally into the Republican-Democratic divide.

For the generation hit hardest by financial woes and a lack of economic mobility, this latest government snafu may represent a breaking point, Fournier argued in a different piece in The Atlantic. He wrote that the familiar criticisms of they millennials — that "they're narcissistic, coddled, and lazy, not to mention spoiled" — mask some positive attributes: "The largest and most diverse generation in U.S. history is goal-oriented, respects authority and follows rules."

And it knows how to use computers. Fournier wrote:

Speaking of technology, Millennials witnessed, embraced, and in some cases instigated massive disruptions of the music, television, movie, media, and retail industries. The most supervised and entitled generation in human history, they have no patience for inefficiency, stodgy institutions or the status quo. Consider what they could do to politics and government. ... The good news is they want to serve.

How might Millennials transform government in the coming years, and what will a new system look like? Michelle Diggles,Third Way's Senior Political Analyst joined Ron Fournier on Minnesota Public Radio to discus her research on how Millenials will effect the future of politics. Listen to their conversation below:

For more information, read her report: The New Electorate and the Future of the Democratic Party.

[astruggledivided]

[onetwentyone]

The findings in this article have a lot of implications for the Asian American vote, which not a lot of politicians really focus on or chase after... ever. And for good reason, too - even amongst eligible Asian American voters, the majority choose not to participate at the polls Election Day. There is some encouraging news though: according to voting trends data from CIRCLE, the 2008 presidential election marked a 10 percentage point jump of Asian young adult (18-29 years) voter turnout from 2004, from 32% to 42%. However, this is stilll lower than the African American voter turnout (58%) and White American voter turnout (52%) in the same age group and year. I'm hoping to see that as the Asian American population grows over the next few decades or so, we'll see the younger generation rising up to recognize the power of federal and state policy, form stronger coalitions around central Asian American issues, and claim a louder political voice for themselves!

[akkuza]

"It is also significant that while Labour retains 63% of its anti-divorce voters, losing only 10% to the PN, the PN only retains 27% of its pro divorce voters while losing 23% to the PL." - MT Survey

Wanted. A dummies guide to the Maltese voter's priorities. How do anti- or pro- divorce voters choose between PL & PN when neither party has a clear position on the issue?