WHAT DOES THE GROUP THINK ?
Why is consensus dangerous ?
Have you ever kept your opinion to yourself in a meeting? Necessarily has been. We don't say anything, we nod our heads in acknowledgment of what's being conveyed, after all we don't want to be a constant spoilsport. And we can't be a hundred percent sure of the accuracy of our different ideas. Others who agree aren't stupid either. When everyone acts like this, there's group thinking: a group of smart people make stupid decisions, because each of them makes their own opinion based on the so-called consensus. Thus, decisions arise that each group member would normally reject. Group thinking is a special kind of thought error social proof that we have studied in past chapters. In March 1960, the American Secret Service began organizing anti-communist exiled Cubans to use against Fidel Castro's regime. Two days after taking office, in January 1961, President Kennedy was informed by the Secret Service about the secret plan of the Cuban attack. A critical meeting took place at the White House in early April 1961. Kennedy and all his advisers approved the attack. On April 17, 1961, a brigade of 1,400 exiled Cubans took off to the Bay of Pigs off Cuba's southern coast with the help of the U.S. Navy, Air Force and CIA. The goal was to overthrow the Fidel Castro government. Nothing went as planned. On the first day, not a single ship could reach shore with supplies. The first two ships were sunk by the Cuban Air Force, and the two ships that followed turned around and fled. Within 24 hours the brigade had been completely circled by Castro's Army. On the third day, 1,200 surviving fighters were captured and confined to a prisoner-of-war camp. Kennedy's Bay of Pigs extraction is considered one of the biggest fiasco of American foreign policy. What is surprising is not that the removal did not go as thought, but that such a ridiculous plan was put into practice. All of the assumptions that seemed positive for extraction were false. For example, the strength of the Cuban Air Force was completely underestimated. It had also been calculated that the brigade, made up of 1,400 exiled Cubans, could hide in the Escambray Mountains to start a war against Castro if he was in trouble. One look at the map of Cuba was enough to see that the escape location was 150 kilometres from the coast of Pigs and the presence of an impenetrable swampy area in between. Kennedy and his advisers were one of the smartest people ever to meet in an American government.
January to April in 1961, what went wrong?
Psychology professor Irving Janis has studied a lot of fiasco. What they all have in common is this: members of a group that dedicates itself to something create illusions and develop an “Esprit de Corps,” that is, a spirit of unity. They do it without knowing it. One of these illusions is the belief that they are invulnerable. "If our leader (in this case Kennedy) and the group are confident that the plan will work, then fortune will be on our side."There's also the illusion of unanimity: “if everyone else agrees, My different opinion must be wrong.” And one doesn't want to be a spoilsport that can undermine consensus. He is happy to be included in the group after all. Reservations can result in exclusion from the group. Group thinking also occurs in economics. The typical example is the sinking of the Swissair in 2001. The group of advisers around the then-CEO grew so strong of a consensus that they could not even articulate different ideas against the highly risky expansion strategy. Conclusion: when you find yourself in committed groups with strong consensus, be sure to tell your opinion –even if you don't want to hear it. Look for unspoken assumptions. In the worst case, you risk being excluded from the group nest. And if you're running a band, then give someone the role of Devil's advocate. That person won't be the team's favorite. But maybe he'll be the most important person on the team. Read the full article