Tbh the only ways I see Act I of Wicked possibly ending differently, if we assume the Wizard will always manipulate Elphaba into magically maiming the Monkey guards, is if A) Fiyero goes with the girls or B) Glinda doesn’t go with Elphaba to begin with (oh the irony).
If Fiyero goes with them he will probably leap for the opportunity to go with Elphaba, and will serve as an extra coercive element that Glinda will likely have a much harder time turning down. And three people on the run (one of whom is a PRINCE WITH A CONVENIENTLY EMPTY FAMILY CASTLE) have a much better chance at surviving than just two.
If Glinda doesn’t go, she (and Fiyero) will wonder How The Hell things at the Emerald City turned out so that Elphaba became public enemy #1 overnight. They would want to know her side of the story and more actively seek her out immediately, and Glinda wouldn’t be tied up with being an immediate stealth political hostage by the Wizard and Morrible by virtue of not having been there as a witness.












