#wxchallenge

[booksnblocks]

Congrats to Ranboo in the forecasting challenge I guess?

(This is a username for a weather forecasting contest. It’s not me - I was just checking standings and saw hit and was like uhhhhh interesting)

[befitandchase]

Do WXChallenge! They said... It’ll be fun! They said...

NOPE!

Forecasting precip for days like tomorrow is such a PAIN IN THE ASS!

The models are ALL OVER THE PLACE. Nothing seems to be agreeing. Hell, even the local NWS is confused! I feel like just grabbing a dart board and using that as my way of picking a number.

UGH! So frustrating!

[befitandchase]

Forecasting is hard...

The worst part: I’m too exhausted to make one. Ugh...

[wxworst]

WxWorst: KSDB

And so, after one city, what has been the worst predictions for everyone? Personally, I’d say the 52 people who didn’t forecast once, taking 8 climos. But here’s what the numbers actually say:

Group 1:

Overall: pasha1 (mcg) and steigs (sny) -- 8 climos (200.2 points)

Modified: MADMAX (unc) - 129.0 points

All manual: MADMAX (unc) -- 129.0 points

Group 2:

Overall: rwendt (nps), kit005 (uab), and AwHail (uah) -- 8 climos

Modified: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 180.0 points

All manual: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 180.0 points

Group 3:

Overall: Aurban (mon) -- 5 climos with a total of 250.5 points

Modified: DavidH (tam) -- 178.5 points

All manual: DavidH (tam) -- 178.5 points

Group 4:

Overall: TLPCMU (cmu) 3 climos with a total of 226.7 points

Modified: Kindt3 (tam) -- 181.8 points

All manual: Kindt3 (tam) -- 181.8 points

For the different categories, “overall” is the worst score of everyone, “modified” is the score counting climo as 0 points, and “all manual” requires 0 absences. So, what’s in store for the next two weeks? Well, weather, I’d hope.

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Thursday Oct 8

And on the eighth day, finally, nobody predicted more than a hundredth of an inch of precip. It’s a miracle! Well, on to Islip.

Group 1: MADMAX (unc) -- 75/60/12/0 for 25.5 points

Group 2: walace (mcg) -- 84/55/13/0 for 21.0 points

Group 3: kzhuxi (wcs) -- 70/52/4/0 for 42.5 points

Group 4: CKEITH (tam) -- 71/62/8/0 for 29.5 points

Climo: 73/55/22/.01 for 30.9 (+10) points

Guidance: 87/68/14/0 for 4.5 (+5) points

I should do an overall summary sometime soonish, to award the worst forecasters in the city, and laugh at all those who took climo 8 times.

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Wednesday Oct 7

No more forecasting for Sandberg! Time for another city... after evaluating two more forecasts. Although... nobody for Wednesday forecasted more than .1″ of precip (YAY!)

Group 1: MADMAX (unc) -- 75/60/12/0 for 20.5 points

Group 2: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 71/60/15/0 for 23.0 points

Group 3: nthomp(mon) -- 67/46/14/0 for 41.5 points

Group 4: JulieC (ply) -- 72/54/4/0 for 33.5 points

Guidance: 84/63/12/0 for 8.5 (+5) points

Climo: 73/55/22/.01 for 25.9 (+10) points

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Tuesday Oct 6

You know, I think most everyone’s getting fed up with the winds by now. SERIOUSLY.

Group 1: nrdpwr (umd) -- 76/53/12/0 for 12.0 points lera27 (nco) -- 77/52/12/0 for 12.0 points

Group 2: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 62/50/11/.20 for 36.5 points

Group 3: MADFER (ind) -- 65/43/10/.10 for 37.0 points

Group 4: LBelle (tam) -- 68/47/1/0 for 31.5 points

Guidance: 77/58/11/0 for 10.5 (+5) points

Climo: 73/55/22/.01 for 10.4 (+10) points

Persistance: 70/50/18/0 for 18.0 (+10) points taken by LCCMAJ (lcc)

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Monday Oct 5

Week 2 of the Weather Challenge is here, and there still are people who, through six days, haven’t forecast once. So don’t do that. 

Group 1: drknow (uga) -- 83/63/17/0 for 23.5 points

Group 2: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 64/51/12/1.20 for 33.5 points No precip: sflea1 (nps) -- 83/59/10/0 for 23.0 points

Group 3: James0 (van) -- 65/53/9/1.00 for 34.0 points Aurban (mon) -- 78/60/7/.50 for 34.0 points No precip: luz215 (van) -- 54/46/3/0 for 30.5 points

Group 4: TLPCMU (cmu) -- 60/47/20/2.00 for 45.5 points No precip: Ramsey (tam) -- 85/65/8/0 for 32.0 points

Guidance: 69/51/1/0 for 8.5(+5) points

Climo: 73/55/22/0.01 for 7.4(+10) points

Admittedly, no precip might not work as well, as the consensus precipitation was 0.01 instead of zero, and 111 people chose to forecast precip (8.89%). Then again, no rain happened, and the total was small, so over an inch of rain... yeah.