Wx Challenge Worst

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WxWorst: KSDB

And so, after one city, what has been the worst predictions for everyone? Personally, I’d say the 52 people who didn’t forecast once, taking 8 climos. But here’s what the numbers actually say:

Group 1:

Overall: pasha1 (mcg) and steigs (sny) -- 8 climos (200.2 points)

Modified: MADMAX (unc) - 129.0 points

All manual: MADMAX (unc) -- 129.0 points

Group 2:

Overall: rwendt (nps), kit005 (uab), and AwHail (uah) -- 8 climos

Modified: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 180.0 points

All manual: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 180.0 points

Group 3:

Overall: Aurban (mon) -- 5 climos with a total of 250.5 points

Modified: DavidH (tam) -- 178.5 points

All manual: DavidH (tam) -- 178.5 points

Group 4:

Overall: TLPCMU (cmu) 3 climos with a total of 226.7 points

Modified: Kindt3 (tam) -- 181.8 points

All manual: Kindt3 (tam) -- 181.8 points

For the different categories, “overall” is the worst score of everyone, “modified” is the score counting climo as 0 points, and “all manual” requires 0 absences. So, what’s in store for the next two weeks? Well, weather, I’d hope.

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WxWorst: Thursday Oct 8

And on the eighth day, finally, nobody predicted more than a hundredth of an inch of precip. It’s a miracle! Well, on to Islip.

Group 1: MADMAX (unc) -- 75/60/12/0 for 25.5 points

Group 2: walace (mcg) -- 84/55/13/0 for 21.0 points

Group 3: kzhuxi (wcs) -- 70/52/4/0 for 42.5 points

Group 4: CKEITH (tam) -- 71/62/8/0 for 29.5 points

Climo: 73/55/22/.01 for 30.9 (+10) points

Guidance: 87/68/14/0 for 4.5 (+5) points

I should do an overall summary sometime soonish, to award the worst forecasters in the city, and laugh at all those who took climo 8 times.

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Wednesday Oct 7

No more forecasting for Sandberg! Time for another city... after evaluating two more forecasts. Although... nobody for Wednesday forecasted more than .1″ of precip (YAY!)

Group 1: MADMAX (unc) -- 75/60/12/0 for 20.5 points

Group 2: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 71/60/15/0 for 23.0 points

Group 3: nthomp(mon) -- 67/46/14/0 for 41.5 points

Group 4: JulieC (ply) -- 72/54/4/0 for 33.5 points

Guidance: 84/63/12/0 for 8.5 (+5) points

Climo: 73/55/22/.01 for 25.9 (+10) points

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WxWorst: Tuesday Oct 6

You know, I think most everyone’s getting fed up with the winds by now. SERIOUSLY.

Group 1: nrdpwr (umd) -- 76/53/12/0 for 12.0 points lera27 (nco) -- 77/52/12/0 for 12.0 points

Group 2: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 62/50/11/.20 for 36.5 points

Group 3: MADFER (ind) -- 65/43/10/.10 for 37.0 points

Group 4: LBelle (tam) -- 68/47/1/0 for 31.5 points

Guidance: 77/58/11/0 for 10.5 (+5) points

Climo: 73/55/22/.01 for 10.4 (+10) points

Persistance: 70/50/18/0 for 18.0 (+10) points taken by LCCMAJ (lcc)

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WxWorst: Monday Oct 5

Week 2 of the Weather Challenge is here, and there still are people who, through six days, haven’t forecast once. So don’t do that. 

Group 1: drknow (uga) -- 83/63/17/0 for 23.5 points

Group 2: rr15j6 (fsu) -- 64/51/12/1.20 for 33.5 points No precip: sflea1 (nps) -- 83/59/10/0 for 23.0 points

Group 3: James0 (van) -- 65/53/9/1.00 for 34.0 points Aurban (mon) -- 78/60/7/.50 for 34.0 points No precip: luz215 (van) -- 54/46/3/0 for 30.5 points

Group 4: TLPCMU (cmu) -- 60/47/20/2.00 for 45.5 points No precip: Ramsey (tam) -- 85/65/8/0 for 32.0 points

Guidance: 69/51/1/0 for 8.5(+5) points

Climo: 73/55/22/0.01 for 7.4(+10) points

Admittedly, no precip might not work as well, as the consensus precipitation was 0.01 instead of zero, and 111 people chose to forecast precip (8.89%). Then again, no rain happened, and the total was small, so over an inch of rain... yeah.

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Thursday Oct 1

One week down, nineteen to go. Well, twenty-three if you also forecast during the tournament, which you should totally do, even if you don’t qualify. Four free weeks of forecasting can’t hurt your abilities. What can hurt your abilities, though, is choosing Climo.

Group 1: kczajk (tol) -- 83/59/16/0 for 24.5 points MADMAX (unc) -- 80/60/12/0 for 24.5 points

Group 2: sflea1 (nps) -- 87/63/10/0 for 35.5 points

Group 3: CM4936 (hws) -- 90/70/6/0 for 47.5 points

Group 4: TLPCMU (cmu) -- 82/58/15/2.00 for 51.5 points No precip: Kindt3 (tam) -- 87/69/6/0 for 43.5 points

Guidance: 74/53/21/0 for 7.0 (+5) points

Climo: 74/56/22/.01 for 9.9 (+10) points

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WxWorst: Wednesday Sept 30

The good news is that we don’t have to forecast tonight. The bad news is that we don’t get to see any more hilariously bad forecasts until next Monday.

Group 1: 333221 (slu) -- 86/66/13/0 for 25.0 points

Group 2: ah15r2 (fsu) -- 87/76/5/0 for 40.0 points

Group 3: Aurban (mon) -- 90/65/12/2.00 for 57.0 points No precip: KEISYD (tam) -- 91/70/10/0 for 35.5 points

Group 4: kel462 (tam) -- 84/75/5/0 for 36.0 points

Guidance: 76/58/20/0 for 3.5 (+5) points

Climo: 74/57/22/0.01 for .9 (+10) points

PERSISTENCE: 83/64/21/0 for 16.0 (+10) points, taken by AAAndo (lyn)

Normally, I say that anything is better than Climo, but it did very well yesterday. That was a fluke. Trust me, we aren’t going to see .9 again. Also, somebody chose persistence. First off, yay! Secondly, WHY?

[wxworst]

WxWorst: Tuesday Sept 29

Well, that was a fun day of forecasting that I totally didn’t forget to do until 0002Z. Tuesday, that is. I got Wednesday’s forecast in on time.

Group 1: MADMAX (unc) -- 80/60/12/0 for 11.5 points

Group 2: rcs901 (umd) -- 89/56/6/0 for 21.5 points

Group 3: KMccas (jsu) -- 75/65/2/1.00 for 37.0 points

Group 4: BG6157 (van) -- 69/56/8/1.20 for 49.0 points

Guidance: 84/62/16/0 for 5.5 (+5) points

Climo: 75/57/22/.01 for 15.9 (+10) points

Persistance: 85/64/25/0 for 4.0 (+10) points

I’d just like to note, I don’t really like doing high precip on days where seven(!) people nationwide chose to forecast for it, but I think the 2kt forecast winds for Group 3 are hilarious, and the points added from precip in Group 4 aren’t enough to knock them out of the highest score for the day.

Edit: It has come to my attention that AAAndo also took persistance today. Well, this was certainly better than tomorrow’s attempt.

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WxWorst: Monday Sept 28

Welcome to the first WxWorst update, celebrating the people who keep on trying at the Weather Challenge, because anything is better than Climo. Seriously, you could score twice as many points as climo would have given you, and I still would think that was better because any forecast is better than no forecast. I’ll probably write up something more about this later, but for now, today’s “winners” and other statistics:

Group 1: MADMAX (unc) -- 80/60/12/0 for 11.5 points

Group 2: ah15r2 (fsu) -- 85/78/10/.11 for 21.8 points

Group 3: mmanni (mon) -- 66/50/9/0 for 37.0 points

Group 4: Lauryn (uic) -- 95/75/9/0 for 25.0 points

Guidance: 85/64/13/0 for 2.0 (+5) points

Climo: 75/57/22/.01 for 19.9 (+10) points