Zukunft 2016
sideways, shaky, faster, brighter and increasingly connected
It’s the first day of the year, a time for planning and anticipating. What can we expect from 2016?
Sideways, and shaky
There is little bright news on the economic front.
In the October update their World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) generally downgraded their growth forecasts from their July update. Projected growth for 2015 is 3.1%, slightly lower than the 3.4% of 2014, but growth for 2016 is expected to go back up to 3.6%. Advanced economies are expected to grow 2.2% in 2016, and emerging markets and developing economies by 4.5%.
The IMF points to a slowdown in China, continued weakness in commodity prices, geopolitical tensions and domestic strife as worrisome factors and was careful to point out that the projected improvement from 2015 to 2016 is not reflective of an expected general recovery but rather “a less deep recession and “a partial normalization of conditions” in distressed economies. The IMF also expects continued financial volatility.
In September of 2015, Willem Butler, chief global economist of Citigroup, predicted a moderate global recession with a 55% probability. Butler’s scenario would have global growth at 2.5% or less beginning second half of 2016 and remaining at these levels for at least a year. Like many analysts, Butler points to the slowdown in China as a key driver for this potential global slowdown.
Just two days before Christmas 2015, Stan Choe of The Associated Press had this to say about investing in 2016: Expect less and buy antacid. His summary of the consensus among analysts and mutual fund managers? Lower returns. Higher volatility. Choe quotes investment bank Barclays’ title for its 2016 outlook: Curb your expectations. This echoes the August 2015 declaration from Goldman Sachs on the future of US stocks in 2015: “Flat is the new up.” Goldman’s 2016 outlook predicts more of the same. Goldman favors strong balance sheets, high domestic sales and companies with the ability to boost margins.
A Reuters poll in mid-December of 2015 showed that optimism among market strategists had faded. The years-long global stock rally which has been fueled by low interest rates and stimulus money by some of the world’s largest central banks, is seen to be losing steam. Key European indices are expected to inch up 10% by mid-2016, still below peaks reached in April 2015. If this still leaves you feeling hopeful, Reuters is quick to point out that strategists as a group generally overestimated market gains for 2015.
The website tradingeconomics.com similarly forecasts an essentially flat year for the Philippine stock index in 2016, with a predicted Q4 2015 PSE level of 6850 and Q3 2016 level of 6650.
Consumer Trends
In the arena of consumer trends, Mary Meehan, Forbes contributor, pinpoints, among others, increasing expectations for consumer control, the movement of social media towards communities, and increased expectations for applications of artificial intelligence.
Trendwatching.com highlights five consumer trends based on 16 underlying megatrends. The five trends include three that involve consumer interactions: interactive campaigns that require customers to exert effort to show that they are part of a chosen few; a nuanced use of omnipresence in order to be present to the right customer at the right place and at the right time, and new ways of communicating value.
In the area of managing omnipresence, trendwatching points out a new app called Attention, which can use your mobile phone activities to pinpoint boredom with 85% accuracy. Once boredom is detected, the app from Barcelona’s Telefonica recommends content from Buzzfeed. Trendwatching also extolls the collaboration between Antwerp’s Hotel Banks and French fashion brand Pimkie, providing a mini fashion bar in hotel rooms. The clothes are tailored to the activities and weather in the area and the hotel provides a dedicated fashion concierge.
Trendwatching’s two other featured trends are the relevance of corporate culture to brand building, and the increasing importance of artificial intelligence in improving the customer experience. Cognitoys, powered by IBM Watson, a learning system made famous by its win on the US game show Jeopardy powers, promises a toy that will evolve with its child owner. For the adults, email plug in Paribus will automatically scan email purchase receipts and email the retailer when it detects that a price match claim can be made. Paribus takes a 25% commission and the buyer receives a refund he would likely otherwise not have even know he qualified for.
Social and lifestyle trends, increased concern for social responsibility and technological breakthroughs seem to be the key factors driving consumer trends.
Consumer Tech
In the world of consumer tech, Dave Johnson shares his forecasts for 2016 on CBS Moneywatch. He names 2015 as the year of peak phone screen size and points to battery life and charging as the next area of improvement in smart phones. Qualcomm’s quick charge already offers 30 minute charging while Storedot announced plans to have a slim battery offering a full charge in 30 seconds before the end of 2016.
Johnson also predicts that virtual reality (VR) will go mainstream when the gold standard in VR, Oculus Rift finally hits the market in the first quarter of 2016. Other choices will include HTC Vive (a gaming headset), Samsung Gear VR and Microsoft’s Hololens. He predicts laptops and desktops will be increasingly marginalized, smartwatches will continue to flounder, passwords will become obsolete, and mobile payment will proliferate.
In fact, UK-based market research firm Juniper Research also believes 2016 will be the year for VR and predicts that see on watching a flat TV screen will feel like typing on a type writer. Juniper Research also sees increased use of wearable Tach on the job, but they pinpoint smart glasses, which reportedly helped DHL increase productivity by 25%, as the type of wearable tech most likely to be adopted for business use.
In other news, be prepared to move from wi-fi to li-fi. Two startups, Velmenni and Bytelight are actually already working on transmitting data via LED light.
Forward
So there we are, sideways, shaky, faster, brighter and increasingly connected. Those are the themes for 2016. As science forges onward, uncertainty, inequity, conflict, and increasingly more devastating natural disasters continue to pose challenges.
Frohes Neujahr!
Zukunft is the German word for future. It is a concatenation of the root words “zu” meaning “to” and “kunft” which comes from the German word “Kommen” meaning “to come”. Hence it literally means what is still to come.
First published 01 January 2016 by The Standard in the column Integrations by Maria Elena “Maya” Baltazar Herrera.
You can email Maya at [email protected]. Please like the Integrations Manila Facebook page or visit her archives at manilastandardtoday.com/author/maya-baltazar-herrera/ or integrations.tumblr.com