Chuyên gia: Trung quốc “né” trò chơi thuế quan, Mỹ “mắc kẹt” trong chính ván cờ mình tự vẽ | BLQT
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Vietnam Plus | Trong khi Trung Quốc khéo léo né tránh các đòn thuế quan từ Mỹ, Washington lại đang mắc kẹt trong chính cuộc chơi mà mình tự tạo ra. Các đòn thuế quan từ Mỹ đang làm khó chính nền kinh tế của mình, trong khi Bắc Kinh, bằng sự kiên cường, vẫn giữ vững lập trường và thực hiện các bước đi chiến lược một cách cẩn trọng. Mỹ có thể gồng mình dưới sức ép, nhưng liệu có thể tìm ra lối thoát khi Trung Quốc đã luôn sẵn sàng với những nước đi đối phó mạnh mẽ?
Thời sự quốc tế 21/4: Nóng: Kế hoạch mật của ông Trump bị bại lộ, nghi ngờ danh tính người đứng sau
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Tin tức mới nhất | Thời sự quốc tế: Nóng: Kế hoạch tuyệt mật của ông Trump bị bại lộ, sốc danh tính người đứng sau Tờ New York Times dẫn bốn nguồn thạo tin tiết lộ Bộ trưởng Quốc phòng Mỹ Pete Hegseth đã chia sẻ chi tiết các cuộc tấn công ở Yemen vào ngày 15/3 trong một nhóm chat Signal riêng tư gồm vợ, anh trai và luật sư riêng của ông.
This is Why America is LOSING While China is WINNING
144,803 views Apr 15, 2025
In this fascinating video, Professor Kishore Mahbubani dives into why the West, especially the United States and Europe, are on the decline, while Asia—particularly China and India—is on the rise. Trust me, you’ll want to hear his take on the shifting global power dynamics!
FP Weekend: The awful history of tariffs and depressions
A colorized illustration depicts the Tompkins Square Park riot in New York City on Jan. 13, 1874, when the city's police department clashed with thousands of unemployed workers during the economic depression following the Panic of 1873. Leslie's illustrated newspaper/Alamy
APRIL 12, 2025|VIEW IN BROWSER|SUBSCRIBE
Welcome to FP Weekend, our weekly showcase of book reviews, deep dives, and other features that step away from the drumbeat of the news.
This week, we dive into U.S. history to explore the economic wreckage that trade wars have caused in the past. In fact, all but one of the six economic depressions that the United States has suffered since 1800 were either directly caused or significantly worsened by tariffs or other trade restrictions, historian Scott Reynolds Nelson writes. Past trade wars also set off a cascade of unforeseen consequences, some of which changed the course of U.S. history forever—and not always in a good way.
Elsewhere, FP’s James Palmer reviews Perry Link’s The Anaconda in the Chandelier, a collection of essays that explore the joys of the Chinese language and the changing nature of Beijing’s clamp on free expression. Other reads look at the culture of violence in the Russian military and Netflix’s remake of “The Leopard,” an old Italian classic.—Stefan Theil, deputy editor
Essay
The Awful History of Tariffs and Depressions
What the 19th century teaches us about what happens next.
The U.S.-China Trade War Threatens to Undo Decades of Progress Against Global Poverty
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The U.S.-China Trade War Threatens to Undo Decades of Progress Against Global Poverty
The World's Poorest People Will Be The First Victims of a US-China Trade War
Mark Leon Goldberg
Apr 15
Last August, I hosted a live taping of Global Dispatches at the World Trade Organization. One of my guests was Ralph Ossa, the WTO’s chief economist. He had just released a major report — and it’s one I haven’t stopped thinking about in recent days.
For years, economists have warned about “decoupling” — the slow drift apart of the U.S. and Chinese economies. For most economists, decoupling is a problem. They argue that global trade is what drives growth and raises living standards (even if unevenly). However, the trend toward decoupling is very real, driven by a variety of political concerns in both Washington and Beijing. What made Ossa’s report so groundbreaking is that his team examined the implications of the logical extension of decoupling: the full fragmentation of the global trading system into two seperate blocs, one lead by the United States, the other China. In this scenario countries are forced to pick sides, and trading between the blocs largely dried up.
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This isn’t just a theory. Ossa’s research shows it’s already happening— and that was before the escalating trade war between the United States and China brought on by Donald Trump’s imposition of massive tariffs on all countries, but China most of all.
If full fragmentation occurs, the WTO report shows that global GDP could shrink by 7%, a loss of over $7 trillion from the global economy. The economic damage will be everywhere, but it will not be evenly distributed. No one would be hit harder than people in the developing world— particularly the poorest of the poor.
A former U.S. trade negotiator describes how countries should navigate the Trump White House.
By Wendy Cutler, the vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
April 15, 2025, 1:52 PM
U.S. trading partners must have breathed a sigh of relief last week when President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the imposition of tariff rates above 10 percent. However, along with Trump’s economic team, they are quickly realizing that the three-month reprieve, while welcome, is an incredibly short time to hammer out trade deals. Typically, U.S. officials spend at least six months—twice the length of time of the current pause—just to develop their negotiating positions in consultation with Congress and stakeholders. Actual negotiations usually span several years. But as we are learning, these are not normal times.
Trump’s Second Term
Ongoing reports and analysis
Countries around the world are scrambling to pull together the best teams and develop strategies, tactics, and substantive offers for a trade negotiation with the United States. The very first thing these countries need to consider is whether they want to push to be at the front of the negotiating queue, a potentially attractive option if they conclude that going early may lead to softer deals. Some may decide that they are better off hanging back and watching how others fare first. This would allow them the opportunity to at least gain a better sense of which negotiating topics (or sweeteners) are of the most importance to the White House and potentially to learn
MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell details how Elon Musk is turning on Donald Trump over his tariffs without attacking Trump directly, asking “How many more billions is Elon Musk willing to lose before he does something more than just telling Donald Trump privately that zero tariffs are the way to go?”
President Trump has announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most countries and a steep increase to tariffs on China. The 125% tariff rate on China comes after China retaliated in an escalating trade war between the two largest economies in the world. For most other countries, a 10% tariff remains in place, but higher tariffs were paused just hours after they went into effect, causing global stock markets to shoot back up after a historic plunge. We speak with two economists, Nancy Qian and Joseph Stiglitz, about the “chaos” of the week since Trump’s initial unveiling of his tariff plan on April 2, which he termed “Liberation Day.” There is “no economic theory behind what he is doing,” says Stiglitz. He calls Trump a “schoolyard bully” who is upending international markets based on a flawed understanding of the role of trade deficits and the feasibility of reintroducing manufacturing to the U.S. economy. “We’ve just never seen anything like this before,” says Qian, who adds that China appears to be digging in for the long, drawn-out trade war that Trump has now ignited. Transcript: https://www.democracynow.org/2025/4/1...
'This is amateur hour': Joseph Stiglitz on Trump tariffs and China
211,610 views Apr 12, 2025 The Fourcast | PodcastEconomic relations between the US and China are effectively over as the world’s two largest economies trade blows in a tit-for-tat trade war that’s brought the global world order into a new era.
As Xi Jinping calls on the EU to join him in opposing President Donald Trump’s ‘bullying’, where does this leave the rest of the world? Is globalisation over? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, former adviser of Bill Clinton and former chief economist of the World Bank. Produced by Ka Yee Mak, Tom Gordon-Martin, Simon Stanleigh and Michael Saliba.
Transcript
0:00what Donald Trump is doing is shooting the US in the foot he's doing more than
0:06anybody has ever done to actually harm American exports this is vintage chaos
0:13the most damaging thing for the United States is not the trade war it's the
0:18attack on our science an attack on our universities attack on the institutions
0:25that gave us really the comparative advantage in technology it's where we
0:34are welcome to another special edition of the forecast from Washington DC a rather stormy Washington DC as you can
0:42tell and the storm kind of reflects the political and economic mood at the moment here to unpeel the onion of this
0:49is extraordinary week of events on the markets and in the White House behind me
0:55i'm very happy to say I'm joined by Professor Joseph Stiglets one of the most eminent economists in this country
1:00amongst other things he was economics professor at Columbia University chief economist at the World Bank and of
1:06course a Nobel laureate welcome Professor Stiglets nice to be here so I
1:12want to start off with a quote that caught my eye this morning from Bill Aman one of the billionaire hedge fund
1:18buddies of President Trump who was panicking uh about seven days ago about
1:23the markets going down too quickly for his liking and then when there was a
1:28reprieve to most of the tariffs of 90 days announced by the White House and the markets shot up this guy Mr aman
1:36said "Vintage out of the deal this is a brilliant president do you agree with
1:42him no and you have to remember that market then went down again uh this is
1:48vintage chaos uh that we've seen uh uh uh a really trademark of uh Donald Trump
1:57and how dangerous is this chaos which seems to be soldiering on not just for
2:02the US economy but the world economy very dangerous you know we've had 80
2:08years of trying to create a rule of law a world in which borders didn't matter
2:15very much where we created uh complex and long supply chains and uh all that
2:24is being uh thrown in the dust bin uh it means that countries can't take
2:31advantage of comparative advantage as they did before they can't rely on the
2:36rule of law as they did before uh and uh
2:42uh business really doesn't like the kind of uncertainty chaos and uh the absence
2:50of a rule of law of course Trump and his friends in the White House would say
2:56this is about red addressing the unfairness uh against America on trade
3:02this is about making sure that China eventually after this trade war finishes
3:07behaves correctly in terms of its trade practices do they have a point a very
3:12small point let me make it clear the United States and to some extent Western
3:18Europe wrote the rules of the game and so it's ironic that we are now
3:24complaining that the rules of the game that we wrote are working and we wrote
3:30them let me make it clear for the interests of American corporations and
3:35other western corporations American financial institutions we wrote them for our advantage and now we're complaining
3:43the system is unfair you know what I hear is yes there may be some unfairness
3:48but it's tilted towards the United States not away from the United States the problem here is that he is
3:56interpreting trade deficits and particularly deficits
4:02in goods as a symptom of unfair trade i mean and the logic is a very simplistic
4:10logic that we're better than any other country therefore we ought to be exporting more than we're importing and
4:17therefore if we're importing more it must mean that somebody's uh doing something naughty uh the fact of the
4:24matter is when you have a a trade deficit uh at a multilateral level it's
4:32a symptom of a macroeconomic problem in particular
4:37it's a symptom that the country's aggregate domestic savings is less than
4:44its domestic aggregate investment and there's going to be a capital inflow to make up for that difference
4:52and corresponding to that capital inflow is a trade deficit it's that simple yeah
4:58so basically what Donald Trump was trying to do was punish foreign countries for not buying American goods
5:06so this isn't just about tariffs this is about the inability or the unwillingness or the unaffordability of places like
5:12Cambodia or Laos or Vietnam to buy expensive American stuff that they may not want exactly and it's ex there's
5:20even a deeper flaw that uh in a modern world we've moved from just trade and
5:29goods to trade in goods and services you know uh uh manufacturing is only less
5:35than 10% of the US economy uh in GDP and employment services are multiple uh of
5:44of uh goods and United States is a major exporter of services health services
5:51financial services tourism and what Donald Trump is doing is shooting the US
5:58in the foot if you look at what he's done in terms of the attack on our
6:04universities one of our most important institutions uh it makes it uh more
6:09difficult for us to export our uh educational services if you look at what
6:15he's doing to tourists including from the UK and from other countries wanting
6:20to come to the United States there's uh the threat that they will be put in detention shipped off to some place and
6:29uh without uh the kinds of normal safeguards that you expect in a democratic country so that's
6:36discouraging uh tourism so he's doing more than anybody has ever done to
6:42actually harm American exports so the tariffs that he's imposed I mean the
6:48ones against China seem to be going up every day i think the last time I looked there was 140% uh American tariffs
6:55versus 125 from China then of course all the other tariffs that may or may not come back in 90 days time i mean the
7:01last time we had tariffs like that was in 1903 uh more than a century ago is that the
7:08mindset of Donald Trump do you think that you know early 20th century is that where he's gone back to very much so
7:16when the US was a dominant power uh he want you know this make America great
7:21again is a a a going back to a world that no longer exists a world where
7:27manufacturing dominated where the US dominated and we could basically uh get
7:33away with uh anything uh United states now is less than 20% of global
7:40GDP and uh China in terms of purchasing
7:46power parody is a larger economy than the United States and there's another
7:52asymmetry that Donald Trump hasn't fully grasped that
7:58uh when we're imposing these high tariffs on uh China it creates an
8:07aggregate demand problem for China and they've been worried about that and they
8:12anticipated that and correcting an aggregate demand problem is not as
8:18difficult as correcting an aggregate supply problem and what the tariffs
8:25against China are doing is creating an aggregate supply problem because our
8:31supply is so dependent on complex supply
8:36chains in which China plays a central role you know we saw that after the
8:41pandemic uh and when Russia invaded Ukraine remember uh in those days there
8:47were these interruptions to supply and uh we had enormous inflation and we couldn't get some critical goods uh
8:56that's what Donald Trump is doing he's creating
9:02unnecessarily those supply side interruptions that we experienced just a
9:08few years ago the other thing of course he wants to do and two things really he wants to increase the revenue the amount
9:14of money the American government makes uh from these tariffs and he wants to bring jobs back to the rust belt to all
9:21those manufacturing towns that have been desolate for decades now are those not two contradictory things because of
9:28course the less people sell to to America the less revenue there'll be from tariffs and you know the jobs don't
9:35necessarily come back as if no one's going to buy the stuff that they produce it's actually worse that you just described because uh first if we get
9:44manufacturing back uh it's going to be modern manufacturing you know I just was
9:51saw a factory in China where they're producing uh a thousand cars a day with
9:562,000 workers most of the production was done by robots uh modern manufacturing
10:02is very advanced and China now has a comparative advantage in engineering
10:10uh which is at the core of modern manufacturing so uh because we have not
10:16invested in railroads we've not invested in logistics uh we have a comparative
10:23disadvantage in some of the core ingredients for uh manufacturing
10:29secondly it takes a long time to produce uh uh many of the
10:35manufact to to create the factories and given the chaos that he's uh uh created
10:43uh firms are going to be worried about moving into the United States thirdly
10:48most importantly he's raised uh the p tariffs on steel aluminum uh key
10:57ingredients into the production of other goods and by increasing the cost of
11:05production he makes American exports less competitive so in fact while he may
11:13create a few jobs in say steel or aluminum he destroys many more jobs in
11:20the sectors that in the fir areas where we use steel and aluminum so he again is
11:27engaged in job destruction so uh when economists look at the whole portfolio
11:36of what he has done it's much more job destruction than job creation i wonder
11:42because it makes so little economic sense what he's been doing whether this is just really political and what it's
11:49really about is trying to limit the expansion of China put China back in its box because as you've just said you know
11:56when it comes to infrastructure when it comes to innovation when it comes to production and maybe even you know
12:01services down the road China a nominally communist state is beating America at
12:08the capitalist game that's right you know uh in some areas we we do have
12:15enormous strengths and one of our strengths was our universities uh our uh
12:21research establishment and he in the last three months has done more to
12:26damage that than any competition with China so over
12:32the short medium and long term he's really undermining the uh strength the
12:40key strength of the United States it's like uh he's been attacking the United States far more than uh China has been
12:48doing uh any damage uh there's another element uh that one
12:56can't underestimate and that is uh the amateuress amateuress of uh his team you
13:04know I've talked to uh people who've been enga countries engaged in negotiations uh it's not like the normal
13:14negotiation where uh one side comes in both sides come in with a sound
13:21understanding of economics a strong view of what they want uh and uh you have
13:28experienced uh and well-informed uh negotiators uh this is amateur hour and
13:37so you have some people who may be bright may have been really good on Wall
13:43Street but that doesn't mean that they have any fundamental knowledge of the
13:49deep intricacies of economic policy and so you have people who've been working
13:54on these issues for decades and trying to interact with somebody who's just
13:59begun to think about these issues they find it frustrating but also I wonder if
14:04it's amateur hour because what's far more important for Donald Trump and the people around the cabinet table is
14:11loyalty to the boss than any kind of expertise which might involve them contradicting him that's right and
14:18there's an element of what is going on of a cultural revolution you know we've
14:25been talking about China and and China went through a uh a devastating cultural
14:30revolution and it was that experience that led to them to
14:36their reform and openness uh strategy which over 45 years has had led to the
14:43highest rates of growth and the largest numbers of people moved out of poverty
14:48in the history of mankind uh we didn't learn the lessons of China's cultural
14:55revolution and what I see going on right now on the attacks on the universities
15:00the attacks on expertise are have a a a kind of close relationship uh to what
15:07happened uh it's sort of like the establishment failed me that's what uh
15:14failed us uh and uh these are the elites that look down on us and it's not true
15:21they were trying to create a better world for everybody but there's that grievance and uh so uh uh they're going
15:31to shoot the country in the foot by uh
15:36destroying uh the uh expertise and in this trade war between China and the US
15:44which seems to be getting worse every day what are the consequences of that going to be for China for us and also
15:50for the world economy well as a we said for for 40 45 years we've tried to
15:58create this global economy based on complex supply chains comparative advantage and uh the whole the the
16:06standards of living on average around the world uh have increased and numbers
16:13of people moved out of poverty enormous the closing of the gap between China and
16:18the United States and the fact that China now in terms of the standard way of measuring uh these the purchasing
16:27power parody China is now larger than the United States still per capita income is much lower but it has four or
16:35five times the number of people so that it is a larger economy uh the United
16:40States resents that and professor Graham Allison uh at uh Harvard
16:46has talked about this as the fusidities trap that the country that was number
16:52one doesn't like the number two country coming up and uh uh uh threatening their
16:59dominant uh position well um China has
17:05been thinking about this issue for a long time after the first Trump
17:11administration they they began a process didn't go fast enough didn't go far
17:17enough but uh are now and have
17:22anticipated what the United States is doing so they are relatively well
17:28prepared you know they've had some adverse event spent nobody could have anticipated CO they didn't manage CO
17:34well uh but uh where they are today uh They are in a deeply uh optimistic uh
17:42position uh deepseek uh the banks in robotization
17:48uh their integration to the global economy uh give them a set a sense of
17:54confidence um so uh I think uh with
18:00difficulty they're going to be able to manage through this uh on the other hand as I said before
18:07um the Donald Trump has not fully anticipated the extent to which our supply chain is
18:15so dependent on China and just breaking it like that
18:21I'm afraid we'll have some consequences for the United States including inflation and the Fed is going to
18:27respond to the inflation by raising interest rates we're good chance of having the worst of
18:34all possible works works stagflation uh which means that we will have a a
18:41recession and inflation uh the critical question he wants the United States uh
18:50to be great again will he restore manufacturing to
18:57the United States uh will he restore America's dominance uh in this area uh
19:06there will be some movement of some firms back to the
19:11United States that will occur but overall because as I say we're a service
19:17sector we're a knowledgebased economy and I said that well before Donald Trump
19:23came on the scene uh in the key areas that are important for a 21st century
19:30economy we'll be worse off and uh uh so I think that
19:39the adverse consequences of this chaos for the United States are going to
19:45be quite significant now the really interesting question I think is Europe
19:52um Europe uh finds it difficult uh to work
19:59together uh the attack by the US against Europe has been uh uniting uh a lot of
20:10discussion about the creation of a European defense force for a long time and there seems to be a significant
20:16movement in that direction uh if Europe gets united
20:22uh responds strongly to the war in Ukraine creates a European defense force
20:28scraps some of the uh constraints that they've imposed on their fiscal policy
20:35uh and reassesses uh its trade relationships with China and uh the rest
20:43of the world i think Europe can navigate its way through this very difficult
20:50period and emerge actually stronger uh uh rather than being a sort of a
20:56dependent on the United States there will be a uh more united uh Europe as a
21:03very important and I would say the critical uh uh country in the world uh
21:10country or region uh supporting democracy and human rights so that's my hope uh a lot rest on what
21:18Europe does where does this leave uh Britain the piggy caught in the middle if you like between uh the European
21:25Union and the United States which which with which it hopes it still has some kind of special relationship i think
21:33it's important for the UK to cast uh its plot with human rights and
21:41democracy and unfortunately uh Trump is moving away from both of
21:48those and so when I say UK has to cast its lot lot with human rights and
21:55democracy that means it has to move back towards Europe and that doesn't mean it
22:01has to rejoin the EU but it does mean it has to coordinate and be an active part
22:08of the European defense force cooperate uh with industrial policy uh climate
22:15change uh uh creating uh a kind of new
22:20multilateralism which unfortunately uh for a while may not the US won't be at
22:26the center uh the EU will the center uh
22:31and uh the UK can be an important partner of the EU just back to China
22:38briefly what are the ways in which China which is the second biggest holder of American debt can retaliate against the
22:47United States in this trade Well I don't think it will actually do anything about quote dumping uh its uh US uh treasury
22:56bills uh uh it would not be in its own interest to drive down the the the price
23:01of those uh treasury bills it could do that but I don't think uh that will happen china uh has uh many cards in its
23:10hands uh it is the the dominant player in a whole set of uh na minerals and uh
23:19other natural resources while we weren't paying attention it it developed this
23:25dominance in materials that are essential for your
23:30smartphone for for renewable energy uh you know it's
23:36really quite remarkable that if you thought that there was a a a conflict of
23:41that kind you would have begun to to try to uh make sure you had the natural
23:47resources that would make you able to uh have what might be called national
23:54economic sovereignty but the f first Trump administration didn't pay any
23:59attention to that uh it was more concerned with grievance and and I would
24:05say another uh wor trade policy but not with the extreme chaos that we have
24:12today there's one other dimension obviously that it could uh uh undertake uh it's no longer dependent
24:21in the way that it was 25 years ago on American investment uh it has an enormous amount
24:28of savings you don't have that kind of savings uh it has far more engineers
24:35than we do so uh it's uh in many areas
24:40uh equal to or surpassed American engineering so its dependence on
24:46American firms has gone down uh so take one example um that uh might
24:54be very salient uh in in EV electric vehicles China's
25:02electric vehicles BYD and a whole set of other companies are now much better much
25:09cheaper than Tesla so it could tax it could tax the profits
25:16of Tesla uh not worry that well uh Tesla might say uh we're not going to invest
25:23anymore in in in China they don't need Tesla's investment uh Apple makes a
25:29significant fraction of its profits uh from China and uh it could tax uh Apple
25:37more so ex this is not what it wants to do uh it wants to continue an
25:44arrangement of of cooperation it's their leaders have made it very clear they
25:50want to cooperate but uh they're not going to cau
25:56uh they're not going to uh be subservient and to put it in a broader
26:03historical context which many Americans don't uh take into account you remember
26:10uh in the middle of the 19th century uh there were trade wars
26:17Uh those trade wars were actually with guns uh Europe with the support of the
26:24United States invaded China and demanded
26:30demanded that China open up its doors to opium to the sale of opium they were
26:37called the opium wars and it was a disaster for China but we insisted this
26:43was what fair trade free trade was about china had to open its doors to opium
26:49it's ironic that now we're talking about phenot but uh that that history which
26:56led to the what are called the concessions uh uh and uh Shanghai and uh
27:04uh other cities um uh in China uh where they had to give up territory where
27:11Europe powers ruled effectively that memory is still there and so uh I do not
27:19see any way in which China is going to cowtow to the United States where uh
27:25Donald Trump demanding something uh of China is going to get uh the resolution
27:32it has to be a dialogue based on uh uh
27:38equality and uh you know one of the problems here is they're more informed
27:45and they've been better trained United States universities uh their experts
27:52actually know more about economics in many cases than than the negotiators
27:57that we're sending from the United States so briefly would you say that what Donald Trump has done what he's
28:03decided to do for political and perhaps economic reasons has hastened the ascendancy of China and the decline of
28:11America yes it's true i don't think the damage necessarily in terms of this
28:16relative position is permanent u but it's very very deep
28:25uh the most damaging thing for the United States is what is is not the
28:32trade war it's the attack on our science an attack on our universities attack on
28:40the institutions that gave us really the comparative advantage and technology
28:45where we are today so his attack on those fundamental institutions uh
28:54probably is the most damaging thing but equally damaging is the attack on the
29:01rule of law you know the the way in which he's trampled on the safeguards uh
29:08uh the the uh just ignoring the law uh
29:14and um the last Nobel Prize uh in economics was given for
29:22uh uh studies that emphasize something that I and a lot of other people have
29:28talked about for a long time what has given rise to the wealth of
29:33nations to uh the success of countries like the UK the United States Western
29:39Europe uh is the rule of law the kind of certainty that that gives for investment
29:47and uh uh he's destroyed that so this
29:54sort of went of destroying attacking science and universities
30:00attacking the rule of law and then attacking the trade framework and the
30:07international rule of law uh has really damaged the United States uh I think
30:13very seriously and of course one of the things that's really suffered is trust in the United States and trust in the
30:19United States is one of the things that has always upheld the dollar the US dollar as the currency of reserve i mean
30:26you've effectively had a golden credit card for decades is there a danger that that golden credit card will now be
30:32demoted to silver or heaven for even bronze uh you're absolutely right and
30:38let me say emphasize something that that uh uh many of us again have talked about
30:43for several decades the importance of soft power it was US soft power that was
30:49really much more important than our hard power people respected us uh because we
30:55were a carry country a successful country uh people looked us at us and
31:03said we want to be like that uh now when people look at the US and say no we
31:08don't want to be like that uh look what he's doing uh to the universities look
31:14what he's doing to the uh rule of law look at the inequality look at the
31:19oligarchy the role of money the corruption uh so uh we are uh losing our
31:28soft power another example of the shooting ourselves in the foot uh when
31:34he uh destroyed shut down USA aid
31:40overnight it resulted in thousands
31:45of children dying in Africa because they couldn't get the medicines it again
31:51undermined respect for the United States what kind of country could do that uh
31:58you know it's an embarrassment so uh he has destroyed our soft power now to come
32:04to the more narrow question of the dollar as a reserve currency china
32:11already anticipated uh this problem uh it used to hold two two trillion or more
32:21dollars in its reserves uh the latest numbers that I've heard reported are
32:29it's down to 700 billion it's diversified uh gold euro
32:35uh uh Japanese yen uh so uh this march
32:41away from the dollar as a reserve currency is already uh way um you know
32:48uh Trump wants to have it both ways it wants to uh have the dollar as a reserve
32:56currency but also not have the one critical disadvantage of the reserve
33:04currency uh and that advantage is that if you are a reserve currency people
33:12will be accumulating dollars if they're accumulating dollars that is equivalent to a capital
33:22inflow and a capital inflow is equivalent to a trade deficit he doesn't
33:29like the trade deficit but you cannot be a reserve currency without having a
33:35trade deficit the trade deficit normally gives rise to deficiency of aggregate
33:41demand that deficiency of aggregate demand requires
33:46uh fiscal stimulus that fiscal stimulus means a fiscal deficit uh and uh the
33:56hawks the fiscal hawks in the Republican party don't like that the UK understood this uh under Kanes and uh some people
34:05say it was uh Kane's insight to say let's not be a reserve currency
34:12uh let's get rid of this hot potato and uh that had undermined the strength of
34:19uh UK um Triffin talked uh a great professor
34:26uh in the last century talked about uh what was called the Kriffin paradox that
34:31the reserve currency create to maintain that reserve currency you have to get
34:37more and more uh uh debt deficits accumulating over time and that of
34:44course as that debt increases the confidence in the reserve currency
34:49decreases and so he said you know there's there's a a kind of tension here
34:55um now the way frontline wants to resolve this is uh to break the laws of
35:03arithmetic and just destroy economics uh the particular proposal that he has uh
35:11uh has been I don't know if you've heard about the Marlego accord uh and one
35:16feature of that is that countries around the world would uh accept trade in their
35:24T bills for century bonds but uh uh which did not yield any uh interest uh
35:32and officials and other governments that I talked about and say what do you think about this they say "Well that's
35:38equivalent to a default." And so uh what
35:44some people in the Trump administration are talking about is a default on the dollar if that discussion continues uh
35:51that of course will undermine the US as a reserve currency
35:57finally Professor Stiglets I mean Scott Bessent the Treasury Secretary said the other day "The next four years of this
36:03administration are going to be about Main Street and not about Wall Street," a kind of populist message from a rather
36:10unlikely man to be honest if what's happening at the moment means pain on
36:16Main Street inflation job losses do you think that American society can sustain
36:22that or will there be a mass kind of electoral rebellion against Donald Trump and his people i think there will be an
36:29electoral rebellion uh what many Americans are now worried about is will
36:35we have free elections in 2026 you really think that's a danger that
36:41you won't have free elections well remember what happened in 2020 donald Trump tried to
36:48overturn a free and fair election where Joe Biden won by 7 million
36:56votes he tried to overturn that now one can't help but ask the question
37:03if you accumulate a lot of power if you show that you're willing to trample the
37:10rule of law is it not conceivable that you would use that power and your
37:17insensitivity to the rule of law to maintain your power and it's not that
37:23difficult because all you have to do is intervene in a limited number of
37:30elections because we have red states we have blue states and then we have purple states and so if you intervene in enough
37:38of the purple states you can ensure that you uh maintain power so because we are
37:46a divided country it's not like he has to shut down the whole electoral process
37:52all he has to do is intervene in a relatively few
37:58uh uh stakes congressional districts and uh we will not have free and fair
38:06elections that is the worry is America becoming the most powerful banana republic the world has ever seen i think
38:14that's the worry and it's a banana republic in so many ways when we talk about banana republics we often talk
38:21about leaders who uh don't have expertise uh who govern on whims with
38:28author authoritarian figures uh who uh may have flawed views grievances
38:37uh and uh it's their whims and their misconceptions obsessions which uh
38:44dictate uh economic uh and other social policies and uh we've never had a banana
38:54republic with so much military uh power and uh that is what is so scary
39:02professor Joseph Stiglets thank you very much indeed for joining us on this special edition of the forecast from
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