My view of the story based off of Taylor’s lyrics and their public lives.
They meet at or around the time of the 2013 VS fashion show, which Swift has referenced many times in her discography.
(You two are dancing in a snow globe round and round
Our secret moments in a crowded room
I don’t like slow motion double vision in rose-blush
Etc)
Taylor cuts her hair to look like Karlie’s. Karlie convinces Taylor to move to New York.
(The one I was dancing with in New York
I didn’t choose this town I dream of getting out there’s just one who could make me stay
Be my NY when Hollywood hates me)
They’re inseparable. Taylor wants Karlie to herself.
(I’m so chill but you make me jealous
Stay here honey I don’t wanna share
Your back beneath the sun wishing I could write my name on it
He was sunshine I was midnight)
Karlie gets engaged to Josh and tells Taylor. She says that they can still keep messing around but Taylor wants Karlie to herself so she breaks things off.
(What did you think I’d say to that? Does a scorpion sting when fighting back? They strike to kill and you know I will.
All that you wanted from me was sweet nothing)
Karlie marries Josh. Swift starts mentioning marriage in her lyricism.
(We gather stones never knowing what they’ll mean. Some to throw some to make a diamond ring
Your mom’s ring in your pocket her picture in your wallet)
They don’t speak for a long time
(As the decade would play us for fools)
Kloss shows up at the eras tour with a couple of other women. One of which is much younger than they are.
(Pierce new holes in my heart…was it hazing?…were you making fun of me with some esoteric joke?
They want… a fat ass with a baby face)
Taylor’s obsession is reinvigorated and enough time has passed for her to realize that she’s never going to get what she wants. She has to pivot. She starts dating Travis. They get engaged. She offers through her newest album to do what Karlie wanted all along - continue their relationship as an affair. Aka live the life of a showgirl.
(Been number one but I’ve never had two and I can’t have fun if I can’t have you
This love is pure profit
I’m married to the hustle and now I know the life of a showgirl babe)