The Delegate Fight

[the-delegate-fight]

Buttigieg Suspends: What Happens Now?

What happens to his delegates?

He gets to keep whatever delegates he has (and retain the right of approval over them when they are chosen between now and June), but the delegates themselves are free to vote for whomever they like on the first ballot. They're essentially old-style superdelegates. When and where are his delegates chosen? New Hampshire District (6 delegates): already chosen.  They are: Shanika Amarakoon Alec Momenee-Duprie Giovanna Komst Johnnie Christensen Kathleen O'Donnell Alan Baker Iowa District (9 delegates): District Conventions, April 13 New Hampshire At-Large/PLEO (3 delegates): chosen on April 25 by the 6 district-level delegates. Nevada (3 delegates): State Convention, May 30 Iowa At-Large/PLEO (4-5 delegates): State Convention, June 13.  (This is a full week after the final event in the Virgin Islands). In prior years, when the Iowa and Nevada delegates weren't pledged based on the caucus night results, it's likely the later stages of the process would have reacted accordingly to Buttigieg's suspension.  This year, the system ensures that Buttigieg keeps his delegates (and effectively makes superdelegates out of them.) Finally, note that if Buttigieg formally ends his campaign (not just suspends it) by the time one of these delegate selection processes rolls around, his At-Large delegates would be reapportioned among the other candidates as if he had not made it above the threshold.  It's unclear whether this would happen with the PLEO or district delegates, as well.  Regardless, since the NH district delegates have already been chosen, he certainly gets to keep them.

What about early voting?

Buttigieg dropping out just two days before Super Tuesday means there may be a significant early vote for him in states that allow it. Arkansas had early voting starting February 18 that ends tomorrow, March 2. California had extensive early voting by mail starting February 3. Colorado is almost exclusively vote-by-mail, starting February 10.  Ballots need to be received by 7PM on March 3, so the vast majority of the votes have already been cast.  (This may be Buttigieg's best opportunity to get delegates after the end of his campaign).  There is some limited in-person voting on Tuesday. Maine had no-excuse absentee voting starting February 3.  Maine has ranked-choice voting, but it is not used for delegate allocation purposes, so first-choice Buttigieg ballots are effectively wasted. Minnesota had no-excuse absentee voting starting January 17. North Carolina had early voting February 13-29, as well as no-excuse absentee voting starting January 13. Oklahoma has no-excuse absentee voting by mail, as well as in-person days February 27-29. Tennessee had early voting from February 12-25. Texas had early voting February 18-28. Utah is almost exclusively vote-by-mail, starting around February 11.  One could drop off one's ballot in person ending February 28 (March 2 in select locations).  There is still in-person voting on Tuesday.  This is another possible place where Buttigieg may pick up a delegate or two. Vermont had early and no-excuse absentee voting starting January 18. On the other hand, Virginia, Massachusetts, Alabama, and American Samoa don't allow early or no-excuse absentee voting, though absentee voting was of course available except in American Samoa. For elections after Tuesday: Democrats Abroad has early voting by mail and email from February 18 - March 10. March 10 primaries: Idaho has early voting ending March 6.  (The start varies by county, but began in Ada County on February 24.) Michigan allows no-excuse absentee voting. North Dakota allows voting by mail, January 20 - March 5. Washington is a primarily vote-by-mail state, February 21-March 10. March 17 primaries: Arizona has early voting (in person and by mail) starting February 19. Florida allows voting by mail; the ballots were mailed in early February.  Early voting starts no earlier than March 2. Illinois allows no-excuse absentee voting, starting March 6.  Early voting varies by location, though Cook County will not start until March 2. Ohio has no-excuse absentee and early voting, starting February 19. April 4: Alaska and Wyoming both have mail options that began in mid-February.  However, both states used ranked-choice voting, so the impact should be limited.

[the-delegate-fight]

Problems With the Iowa Results

As was to be expected, the Iowa results don’t bear up to tight scrutiny; there were always going to be inconsistencies, and the close margin just magnifies them.  Among the issues:

1. The Iowa Democratic Party is not reading its own satellite caucus rules correctly.  It is weighting the satellite caucuses directly proportional to turnout, rather than through the baroque fictitious county delegate scheme in the delegate selection plan (where it’s a step function of the turnout with a hard cutoff).  Interpreting the rules correctly would hurt Sanders by about 3 SDEs.

2. Inconsistencies between the final alignment vote and the SDEs.  In principle, it should be possible to calculate one from the other (outside of really small precincts that elect a single delegate to their county convention).  This mostly holds true, except in around 90 precincts; fixing those errors would net Sanders around 5 SDEs.  Most of these errors are rounding or blatant numerical errors that would be easily fixable in a recanvass.  Others are harder; in some places, the viability threshold was calculated incorrectly; correcting this would make some groups inviable that honestly believed they were viable, and would have acted differently had they known they were not.

3. Certain precincts awarded too many SDEs (or too few) overall.  Scott County is the worst offender here, giving out more than 2 SDEs than it should.  I”m not really sure what the net result would be here of fixing these errors, but my best guess is less than 1 SDE in favor of Sanders.

4. Straight up reporting errors; there are likely cases where the reported results are wrong, and likely provably so, not just inconsistent.  The size and scope of these is hard to determine.

Overall, the winner in SDEs is essentially unknowable at this point.  Sanders can easily make a case for a recanvass, a recount, or a fight before the credentials committee later in the year, should he choose to do so.  I’m unlikely to award the last delegate from Iowa unless either Buttigieg or Sanders makes it clear they are not contesting it.

[the-delegate-fight]

Preliminary Iowa Results

Given the results we have as of the evening of February 4 (projecting them out on the most simplistic level to the remaining precincts gives little difference, though remember we have zero results at all from the satellite caucuses): Biden misses viability in CD 2, but gets it everywhere else. Warren misses viability in CD 4 by a hair, but gets it everywhere else. (This could *very* easily change) Klobuchar gets viability in CD 4, and nowhere else. Total national delegates: Buttigieg 14 Sanders 11 Warren 8 Biden 7 Klobuchar 1 Exceptionally close delegate calls (<1% differences): Third place in CD 1 gets a delegate; Biden is ahead of Warren by less than 0.5%. Biden only has 15.6% in CD3; if he drops below viability, Sanders picks up his delegate. Warren is at 14.97% in CD4; if she gets to viability, she picks up a delegate from Buttigieg. Biden is at 15.6% statewide; if he drops below viability, Sanders picks up 2 delegates and Buttigieg 1. Best case Sanders scenario is Biden tanks in CD3 and statewide, and Warren gets above threshold in CD 4 (the Biden-Warren contest in CD1 is largely irrelevant), which would make the delegate count: Sanders 14 Buttigieg 14 Warren 9 Biden 3 Klobuchar 1 A relatively aggressive call: Buttigieg 13 Sanders 11 Warren 8 Biden 2 Klobuchar 1 Too Close to Call 6 

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New York: April 28

Overview 274 Delegates (6.89% of total) Closed Primary 61 At-Large 29 PLEO At-Large 184 by CD Early Voting: April 18 - April 26. Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats may vote in the primary.  The voter registration deadline for new voters is April 3; for existing voters who want to change their voter enrollment from another party (or not enrolled) to Democratic, the deadline is February 14. Early voting runs from April 18-April 26.  New York does not have no-excuse absentee voting. Ballot Access The filing deadline is February 6. Details Groups of 61 and 29 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 8 for CDs 5,8,9,12,13,16; 7 for CDs 3,4,7,10,15,17,20,24,25,26; 6 for CDs 1,2,6,11,14,18,19,21,22,23,27. Superdelegates Biden (3): Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Rep. Tom Suozzi, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney Buttigieg (1): Rep. Kathleen Rice Bloomberg (1): Rep. Max Rose Sanders (1): Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Uncommitted (40): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand [formerly Gillibrand], Sen. Chuck Schumer, Rep. Gregory Meeks, Rep. Grace Meng, Rep. Nydia Velázquez, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Rep. Yvette Clarke, Rep. Jerry Nadler, Rep. Carolyn Maloney [formerly Gillibrand], Rep. Adriano Espaillat, Rep. José E. Serrano, Rep. Eliot Engel, Rep. Nita Lowey, Rep. Antonio Delgado, Rep. Paul Tonko, Rep. Anthony Brindisi, Rep. Joseph Morelle, Rep. Brian Higgins, President Bill Clinton, Jay Jacobs, Christine Quinn, Stuart Appelbaum, Vivian Cook, Jennifer Cunningham, Maria Cuomo Cole, Hazel Duke, Emily Giske, Carl Heastie, Michael Reich, Gerard Sweeney, Robert Zimmerman, Charlie King, Christopher Lowe, Ai-Jen Poo, Randi Weingarten, Identity Unknown, Identity Unknown, Identity Unknown, Identity Unknown, Identity Unknown Useful Links The Green Papers NY Delegate Selection Plan

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Virgin Islands: June 6

The very last contest of the cycle; unlikely to receive much attention unless we're on the way to a contested convention. Overview 7 Delegates (0.18% of total) Closed Caucus 7 At-Large Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Caucuses will be held simultaneously on June 6, with one site each on St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.  Any registered voter may participate in the caucus, provided they state that they prefer the Democratic party.  The voter registration deadline is May 5.  There is no absentee or early voting. Ballot Access There's no ballot access considerations here, but candidates must certify they name of their authorized representatives to the VI Democratic Party by April 3. Details 4 Delegates will be allocated based on the results on St. Croix; 3 Delegates will be allocated based on the results on St. Thomas and St. John. Superdelegates Uncommitted (6): Gov. Albert Bryan Jr., Del. Stacey Plaskett [formerly Harris], Cecil Benjamin, Carol M. Burke, Carla Joseph, Ernest Morris Useful Links The Green Papers VI Delegate Selection Plan

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South Dakota: June 2

Overview 16 Delegates (0.40% of total) Semi-Open Primary 4 At-Large 2 PLEO At-Large No-excuse absentee voting starts April 17. Who Can Vote? When Can they Vote? Any voter who is a registered Democrat, Independent, or has no party affiliation may participate in the primary.  The Republican primary (held the same day) is only open to Republicans.  There are state and local races on the primary ballot, as well.  The voter registration deadline is May 19. South Dakota allows no-excuse absentee voting (and apparently early voting) starting on April 17. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 31. Details Groups of 10, 4, and 2 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote. Superdelegates Biden (1): Tom Daschle Uncommitted (4): Paula Hawks, Randy Seiler, Deb Knecht, William Walsh Useful Links The Green Papers SD Delegate Selection Plan

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New Mexico: June 2

Overview 34 Delegates (0.85% of total) Closed Primary 7 At-Large 4 PLEO At-Large 23 by CD Early Voting: May 5-30 Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats may participate in the primary.  The voter registration deadline is May 2.  17-year-olds who turn 18 by November 3 may participate in the primary. New Mexico has early voting starting on May 5 and ending on May 30; the number of locations expands starting May 16. New Mexico allows no-excuse absentee voting beginning no later than May 11. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 16. Details Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 7 for CDs 1,3; 5 for CD 2. Superdelegates Warren (1): Rep. Deb Haaland Uncommitted (10): Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Sen. Martin Heinrich, Sen. Tom Udall, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Rep. Ben Ray Luján, Fred Harris, Marg Elliston, Marcus Porter, Joni Marie Gutierrez, Raymond Sanchez Useful Links The Green Papers NM Delegate Selection Plan (draft)

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New Jersey: June 2

Overview 126 Delegates (3.17% of total) Semi-Open Primary 28 At-Large 14 PLEO At-Large 84 by District Early Voting by mail starts around April 18. Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters can participate in the primary; unaffiliated voters who participate will become affiliated with the Democratic primary.  The voter registration deadline for new voters is June 2; the deadline to switch party affiliations is April 13. New Jersey allows early voting by mail, starting around April 18. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 30. Details Groups of 28 and 14 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The District delegates are not apportioned by CD, but instead by "delegate district"; each delegate district comprises two state legislative districts.  District delegates are distributed as follows: 4 for LDs 4/5, 6/7, 14/15, 16/17, 21/27, 20/22, 28/29, 31/33, 34/35, 37/38; 3 for LDs 1/3, 2/9, 8/12, 10/30, 11/13, 18/19, 23/24, 25/26, 32/36, 39/40. Superdelegates Biden (2): Rep. Tom Malinowski, Rep. Donald Payne Jr. Uncommitted (18): Gov. Phil Murphy, Sen. Bob Menendez, Sen. Cory Booker, Rep. Donald Norcross, Rep. Andy Kim, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, Rep. Frank Pallone, Rep. Albio Sires, Rep. Bill Pascrell, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, John Currie, Peg Schaffer, Tonio Burgos, John Graham, Marcia Marley, Bernadette McPherson, George Norcross III. Jeff Van Drew is obviously no longer a superdelegate. All uncommitted supers except Burgos and Marley had endorsed Booker. Useful Links The Green Papers Delegate Selection Plan

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Montana: June 2

Overview 19 Delegates (0.48% of total) Open Primary 4 At-Large 2 PLEO At-Large 13 by District No-excuse absentee voting starts no later than May 4. Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? All registered voters can participate in the primary.  There is a GOP primary on the same day, and state and local races are on the ballot as well. Montana has no-excuse absentee voting, both in-person and by mail, starting no later than May 4. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 9. Details Groups of 4 and 2 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The district delegates are divided into two pools, one corresponding to the Western half of the state (with 6 delegates), and the other to the Eastern (with 5 delegates). The Western district comprises Beaverhead, Broadwater, Deer Lodge, Flathead, Glacier, Granite, Jefferson, Lake, Lewis & Clark, Lincoln, Madison, Mineral, Missoula, Pondera, Powell, Ravalli, Sanders and Silver Bow Counties. The Eastern district comprises Big Horn, Blaine, Carbon, Carter, Cascade, Chouteau, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Fergus, Gallatin, Garfield, Golden Valley, Hill, Judith Basin, Liberty, McCone, Meagher, Musselshell, Park, Petroleum, Phillips, Powder River, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Sheridan, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Teton, Toole, Treasure, Valley, Wheatland, Wibaux and Yellowstone Counties. Superdelegates Uncommitted (6): Gov. Steve Bullock [formerly Bullock], Sen. Jon Tester [formerly Bullock], Robyn Driscoll, Max Croes, Jorge Quintana, Jean Dahlman Useful Links The Green Papers MT Delegate Selection Plan (Draft)

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District of Columbia: June 2

Overview 20 Delegates (0.50% of total) Closed Primary 5 At-Large 2 PLEO At-Large 13 by Municipal District Early Voting: May 18-May 29. No excuse absentee voting starts around April 17. Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats may participate in the election.  New voters may register on the day of the election, but existing voters who want to become Democrats must re-register by May 12.  Local primaries are held on the same day. DC holds early voting from May 22 - May 29; early voting is available even earlier (May 18) at One Judiciary Square.  DC allows no-excuse absentee voting, starting around April 17. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 4. Details Groups of 5 and 2 delegates are allocated based on the district-wide vote.  DC's "District" delegates are allocated based on the results in each "municipal district": 7 for MD1 (Wards 1,2,6,8) and 6 for MD2 (Wards 3,4,5,7). Superdelegates Sanders (2): Larry Cohen, James J. Zogby Biden (1): Symone Sanders Buttigieg (1): Keith Michael Harper Steyer (1): Jeff Berman Uncommitted (21): Mayor Muriel Bowser, Shadow Senator Paul Strauss, Shadow Senator Mike Brown, Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, Charles E. Wilson, Linda L. Gray, Silvia Martinez, Jack Evans, James Joseph Boland, Calla R. Brown, Roxanne D. Brown, Maria Cardona, Alexandra Chalupa, J. David Cox, Leah Daughtry, Joanne Dowdell, Earl D. Fowlkes Jr., Lily L. Eskelsen Garcia, Harold Ickes, Claire Lucas, Minyon Moore, Carol Pensky, Carrie Pugh, Steve Regenstreif, Lee A. Saunders, Rick C. Wade.  This is more than 21 names; five of the listed superdelegates are likely not actually superdelegates.  I suspect James Zogby may be one of them. Useful Links The Green Papers DC Delegate Selection Plan

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Oregon: May 19

Overview 61 Delegates (1.53% of total) Closed Primary 13 At-Large 7 PLEO At-Large 41 by CD Vote by mail: April 29 - May 19. Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats may participate in the primary; the voter registration deadline is April 28. Oregon is a vote-by-mail state; ballots will be mailed out on April 29, and must return them by 8PM on May 19. Ballot Access The filing deadline is March 10. Details Groups of 13 and 7 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 12 for CD 3; 9 for CD 1; 7 for CDs 4,5; 6 for CD 2. Superdelegates Biden (1): Rep. Kurt Schrader Uncommitted (13): Gov. Kate Brown, Sen. Jeff Merkley, Sen. Ron Wyden, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, Rep. Earl Blumenauer, Rep. Peter DeFazio, KC Hanson, Pete Lee, Tanya Shively, Travis Nelson, Matt Keating, Ellen Rosenblum, Tina Kotek Useful Links The Green Papers OR Delegate Selection Plan

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Kentucky: May 19

Overview 54 Delegates (1.36% of total) Closed Primary 12 At-Large 6 PLEO At-Large Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats can participate in the primary.  The voter registration deadline for new voters is April 20; for existing voters who want to re-register as Democrats, the deadline was December 21, 2019. Kentucky does not allow early voting or no-excuse absentee voting. Ballot Access All major candidates will appear on the ballot. Details Groups of 12 and 6 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 10 for CD 3; 8 for CD 6; 6 for CD 4; 5 for CD 2; 4 for CD 1; 3 for CD 5. Superdelegates Uncommitted (7): Gov. Andy Beshear, Rep. John Yarmuth, Ben Self, Cassie Chambers Armstrong, Susanna French, Charlotte Lundergan, Nathan Gene Smith Useful Links The Green Papers KY Delegate Selection Plan

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West Virginia: May 12

Overview 28 Delegates (0.70% of total) Semi-Open Primary 6 At-Large 3 PLEO At-Large 19 by CD Early Voting: April 29 - May 9 Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Voters who are registered Democrats or who are unaffiliated with any political party may vote in the primary.  The voter registration deadline is April 21.  The GOP is having a primary on the same day (also open to unaffiliated voters), and state and local races also appear on the primary ballot. West Virginia allows early voting from April 29 - May 9 (except Sunday May 3).  West Virginia does not allow no-excuse absentee voting. Ballot Access All major candidates will appear on the ballot. Details Groups of 6 and 3 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 6 for CD 2; 5 for CDs 1,3. Superdelegates Uncommitted (6): Sen. Joe Manchin, Belinda Biafore, Bill Laird, Pat Maroney, Elaine Harris, Identity Unknown Useful Links The Green Papers WV Delegate Selection Plan

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Nebraska: May 12

Overview 29 Delegates (0.73% of total) Semi-Open Primary 6 At-Large 3 PLEO At-Large 20 by CD Early Voting: April 13 - May 11 No-excuse absentee starts April 7 Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? All voters who are registered as Democrats or who are unaffiliated with any political party may participate in the primary.  The voter registration deadline is May 1.  The GOP is holding its presidential primary on the same day, but it is open only to Republican voters.  State and local primaries are also being held on the same day. Nebraska has early voting in each county starting April 13; it also allows no-excuse absentee voting, starting no earlier than April 6. Ballot Access Filing deadline is March 12. Details Groups of 6 and 3 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 9 for CD 2; 7 for CD 1; 4 for CD 3. Superdelegates Uncommitted (4): Jane Cleeb, Richard Register, Patty Zieg, Ron Kaminski Useful Links The Green Papers NE Delegate Selection Plan (approved)

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Indiana: May 5

Overview 82 Delegates (2.06% of total) Open Primary 18 At-Large 9 PLEO At-Large 55 by CD Early Voting: April 7 - May 4 Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? All registered voters may participate in the primary, though voters not already recorded as Democrats must sign a statement acknowledging their new party preference.  The GOP primary is on the same day, and state and local races will be on the primary ballot as well. The voter registration deadline is April 6. In-person early voting is available from April 7 - May 4.  Indiana does not allow no-excuse absentee voting by mail. Ballot Access The filing deadline is February 7. Details Groups of 18 and 9 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed as follows: 8 for CDs 1,7; 7 for CD 5; 6 for CDs 8,9; 5 for CDs 2,3,4,6. Superdelegates Buttigieg (1): Rep. Pete Visclosky Uncommitted (6): Rep. André Carson, John Zody, Cordelia Lewis Burks, David Frye, Cindy Henry, Anthony Long Useful Links The Green Papers IN Delegate Selection Plan (approved)

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Kansas: May 2

Overview 39 Delegates (0.98% of total) Closed Party-Run Primary 9-At Large 4 PLEO At-Large 26 by CD Vote by Mail: March 30 - April 24 Who Can Vote? When Can They Vote? Only registered Democrats may vote in the primary; voters may register on the day of the primary.  The GOP is not holding a presidential caucus or primary in Kansas this cycle. The Kansas Democratic party will send mail ballots to every registered Democrat in the state on March 30; mail ballots must be postmarked by April 24.  In-person voting will also be held on May 2, from 10-4PM CDT, at at least one site in each state senate district. Ranked Choice Voting Kansas is using a ranked-choice system; voters rank their candidates, and candidates that do not meet the 15% threshold among first-choice votes have those ballots redistributed to other candidates.  Presumably this process occurs separately in each CD and statewide, though the Delegate Selection Plan only explicitly mentions CDs.  Regardless, the effect of ranked choice voting should be minimal unless any candidates drop out in April. Due to the added complexity for counting ranked-choice ballots, the results of the primary will not be released until 1PM CDT on Sunday May 3. Ballot Access Filing deadline is February 17. Details Groups of 21 and 10 delegates are allocated based on the statewide final ranked-choice vote.  The CD delegates (likewise allocated based on the final ranked-choice vote in each CD) are distributed as follows: 8 for CD 3; 7 for CD 2; 6 for CD 4; 5 for CD 1. Superdelegates Uncommitted (6): Gov. Laura Kelly, Rep. Sharice Davids, Vicki Hiatt, Brandon Johnson, Teresa Garcia Krusor, Chris Reeves Useful Links The Green Papers KS Delegate Selection Plan

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Guam: May 2

Overview 7 Delegates (0.18% of total) Closed Firehouse Caucus 7 At-Large Details All registered Democrats may participate in the caucus; same-day registration is allowed. Voting will occur at various locations across the island from 10 AM to 8 PM local time (8 PM on May 1 - 6 AM May 2, Eastern Daylight Time). Guam's 7 delegates will be apportioned based on the caucus vote. Ballot Access There is no ballot access deadline, per se; the exact form of the ballots being cast on May 2 is somewhat unclear.  Presidential candidates must have provided names of their authorized representatives to the Democratic Party of Guam by January 6. Superdelegates Uncommitted (6): Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero, Rep. Michael San Nicolas, Judith Won Pat, Jon Junior Calvo, Régine Biscoe Lee, Rory J. Respicio Useful Links The Green Papers Guam Delegate Selection Plan