MIDTERM ELECTION: AN ANALYSIS
Part 1: An Overview, by Nguyen Anh Duc, alumni of Hanoi - Amsterdam High School for the Gifted
Image by Student News Daily
America has been one of the great Republics in the world. For it to be well-functioned, each of its three branches of government (the Executive, the Legislative, and the Judiciary) must perform well under the principle of “check and balances”. Every election year, the American people voice their opinions by casting their ballots, either for a presidential candidate, a Congress candidate, a gubernatorial candidate or for all of them.
The President and the Vice President of the United States serve on the Executive branch, and their seats are up for election every four years. Meanwhile, in the Legislative branch, all 435 seats of the House of Representatives (the lower chamber) and approximately one-third (one class) of the Senate (the upper chamber) are up for election every two years. That means in one full presidential term, one mid-term election must happen, and it occurs in the second year of that term. This year, 33 class-one seats of the Senate will be contested, along with two special elections for two class-two seats due to vacancies. Meanwhile, in the governor race, 39 state governorships will be up for grab.
Since World War I, the mid-term election has not only been about members of Congress and their ability but also indirectly about the President and his ability to take charge of one of the most powerful positions on Earth. Sometimes, the ability of a President decides the whole mid-term election, and along with that, either a Democrat or a Republican wave would be sweeping the House, the Senate, or both chambers. It is usual for the party of the President to lose seats in this mid-term election (first in the House, then in the Senate during his second term, due to the fact that only one-third of the Senate is contested every election cycle).
The first memorable control switch occurred exactly 100 years ago, in 1918, after the ratification of the seventeenth amendment. President Woodrow Wilson had led America into World War I, the deadliest war in the history of the world up to that moment. After the victory of the Allies, President Wilson brought up the idea of creating the League of Nations, an organization that maintained world peace and push forward the United States' involvement as the leader of that organization. But he had mistimed his proposal. The American people were tired after the war, and they were not in the mood for a big change. It is also interesting to remember that President Wilson has campaigned in 1916 that he would "keep [the United States] out of the war," and for that promise, he won the 1916 election in both the Electoral College and the popular vote by a very close margin. Those reasons led to a Republican wave into the Legislative branch (with twenty-four seats gained in the House and seven seats gained in the Senate, giving the Republicans a slim two-vote majority in the Senate), and furthermore, a twelve-year period of Republican presidents.
Another Republican wave happened in 1946, in the midst of the first term of Harry Truman, the man replacing Franklin Roosevelt, whom untimely died in April 1944. His decision to drop two atomic bombs in Japan to end the war made people cast doubt on his ability to be President. The Republicans, therefore, gained back control of both houses of Congress in 1946. But Truman proved his title, "The Comeback Kid," before Bill Clinton did in 1996. Although he faced tough challenges in the primaries and in the election of 1948, he became the ultimate winner of the presidential race and earned the right to serve his full term. Democrats took back seventy-five seats in the House and nine seats in the Senate, enough for them to regain control of the Congress.
In 1958, almost six years into his presidency, Dwight D. Eisenhower proved to be an effective leader, not only of the Army but also of the United States. He won two back-to-back elections in 1952 and 1956, both with a landslide in the Electoral College, ending twenty consecutive years of Democratic control of the Executive branch. Yet, the economic recession was hitting hard on the American people, unemployment was soaring, and the Soviet Union was ahead of the United States in the space race with the launching of Sputnik. This hurt the popularity of Eisenhower, and allowed Democrats to increase their control of Congress to a commanding level: a twelve-seat gain in the Senate (only a few moments where more than ten seats changed hands in the mid-term election), and a seventy-five-seat swing in the House.
The year 1980 is a special year when for the first time in almost thirty years, Republican gained control of the Senate and created a working majority in the House. This was mainly due to a very popular (and charismatic) Ronald Reagan, whose conservative agenda called for a big tax cut, less spending, less regulation, and limited government for the American people, had reduced unemployment, inflation, interest rates, as well as increased jobs, savings, and spendings. He was able to make America believe they "are better off [in 1984] than they were four years ago." However, in 1986, there was a huge deficit in the budget, and the national debt was almost tripled since 1980. Having no choice, Reagan was forced to increase the tax burden of the American people. Along with the scandalous Iran – Contra affair, which revealed that American was selling a weapon to its arch-enemy, and the fact that many Senate seats, which were held by Republican because of the coattail of the 1980 election, was contested, a blue wave in the United States Senate was inevitable. The Senate of the 100th Congress was memorable for rejecting the nomination of Judge Robert Bork—a conservative who was nominated by President Reagan to the Supreme Court—by a vote almost on the party line.
The 1994 mid-term election was another remarkable one. After defeating incumbent George H. W. Bush in 1992 to become President of the United States, William Jefferson Clinton ended a twelve-year streak of Republican controlling the White House, which allowed him to enact his new, liberal agenda with a Democratic majority in both Houses. However, after having spent too much time enacting one major piece of his agenda—universal healthcare reform—without getting any result, Bill Clinton became one of the most unpopular presidents in the 20th history. Newt Gingrich, along with his "Gang of Seven", promised a "Contract with America", a series of conservative legislation. With "Contract", Republicans made history when they took back control of both Houses of Congress, ending sixty years of Democratic dominance in the Legislative branch.
The most recent "change hands" in the House occurred in 2010, at the beginning of the Obama administration. President Obama had been successful in doing what Bill Clinton was not able to do in 1994—passing the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare", his trademark piece of legislation, by a very slim vote in the House, along with the 700-billion-dollar stimulation package to rescue the economy from the disastrous 2008 recession. But it might be the fact that the American people had misunderstood the essence of "Obamacare" that cost the Democratic Party the majority in the House and led to a very close 52-48 majority in the Senate. Although Democrats were able to pick up seats in both Houses in the 2012 election, with Republicans' all-out effort to block the agenda and create a gridlock in the Congress at the beginning of President Obama's second term, Democrats lost enough seats in both the House and the Senate in 2014 to revert them to be the minors in both chambers.
It can be said that the mid-term election is the "referendum" of what the President has accomplished at the beginning of his term. Although in many cases, the incumbent party lost seats, the opposite, which is rare, had been observed. The President might be able to accomplish something extraordinary that could actually maintain his party in the majority.
In 1932, after defeating Herbert Hoover with his "do-nothing" agenda, Franklin Delano Roosevelt promised to save an endangered American economy. However, his "New Deal" program had not been proven great success yet. For this reason, FDR once worried that his programs might take away votes from the Democratic Party in 1934. Nevertheless, "New Deal" had regain confidence in the American people about their president, and they decided to keep Democratic in the supermajority in the House until 1938, and in the Senate until 1942, during which FDR and the Democratic Party were able to continue rescuing the economy and get America ready for the Second World War. FDR became the first (and only) President to be elected to an unprecedented four terms, due to the popularity of his economic plans and his decisive actions in WWII.
In 2001, the world suffered the first large-scale terrorist act: the 9/11 event, from which the United States was vulnerated the most. America, however, under a strong command of then-Commander-in-Chief George W. Bush, was able to rise after the terrorist act by al-Queda. His speech before Congress only nine days after the disastrous event ensured the American people that he would try anything to do justice to the terrorists. He announced war with Iraq, initially getting strong support from both sides of the aisle in the Congress and the American people. His image in 2001 was different from his "wimpy" image after the bitter 2000 presidential election. Therefore, in 2002, the Republicans had done what the Democrats did almost seventy years ago: gaining seats in the House and retaining control of the Senate after a brief moment of Democratic control in 2001. However, the escalation of the Iraq War was strongly opposed by Congress and by the American people in 2006—people were getting tired when they saw American troops entering the war without getting anything accomplished. That is why Republicans were not able to maintain control of both chambers in 2006, which led to a big Democratic wave and a Democratic presidency in 2008.
Right now, with an unprecedented presidency in the United States and a very polarized America, anything can still happen in this mid-term election. Will Democrats be able to flip back enough "swing" seats to gain control in the House? Will Republicans be able to defend "toss-up" seats to protect their slim majority in the Senate? The answer lies on each cast vote.
The fate of the new 116th Congress will be decided on November 6, 2018.