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Beautiful sunny day here in McKinney. Get prequalified to purchase new or pre-owned properties at www.rate.com/YuliaBrown You could own one of these amazing properties for your future home or investment property. 🏡💰 You have a plan - I have programs just for you 💰 https://www.instagram.com/p/Cik2gyHu9XG/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Markets are mixed today as the specter of 4%+ Fed rates loom over traders. Equities have bounced between positive and negative today, after yesterday’s disappointing report on consumer prices sent the DOW nearly 1,300 points lower. As most people fought the urge to check their 401ks, the chatter of a super-sized 100 bps September rate hike became louder and louder. This morning’s report on producer prices did little to quiet those calling for more aggressive measures by the Federal Reserve. Monthly PPI grew higher-than-expected, coming in at .4% vs .3%. Year-over-year producer prices remained elevated at +8.7%; with the volatile sectors of food and energy removed, prices rose by 7.3%. Yesterday, money market bets were indeed pricing in a full-point rate hike by the Fed at next week’s meeting, though the odds have fallen today. Still, interest rates futures markets are pricing in hotter-than-expected inflation will lift the Fed Funds rate as high as 4.5% by early 2023, pulling large parts of the treasury yield curve up to levels not seen in more than a decade. To be sure, 2022 has been a very difficult year for bond investors; not knowing when or how to put money to work in the fixed income market. According to PIMCO’s bond fund manager, Mohit Mittal, “to avoid more pain, its best to wait until the Fed gets to 4% and then add shorter maturity exposure in high-quality credit and floating-rate notes”. On the Brightside, mortgages are holding on for dear life today. UMBS 4.5s are sharply unchanged, despite 4 consecutive days of moving lower. Treasuries could be worse too, with the yield on the 10yr note still managing just under support at 3.50%. On the other hand, the so-called “short end” of the curve is getting absolutely annihilated as it tracks future Fed rate hikes creating a yield curve that is more inverted than a 4G negative dive with a Mig-28 at 1.5 meters. And because of that, the great ARM boom of 2022 that many thought was promised remains nowhere to be found. JC (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/CigI9x5PoGR/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

And just like that another season has started. @mhssoccerboosterclub @mhs.pto (at Frisco Lakes Golf Club) https://www.instagram.com/p/CifNqpHutdJ/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Мира, Счастья, Любви, Благополучия и Достатка https://www.instagram.com/tv/CidMy5Hvsy9/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

A 75bps rate hike by the Fed appears to be locked-in for the September rate decision as 40-year high rates of inflation continue to grip the market. Earlier this morning, August CPI came in at +.1% month-over-month, higher than the -.1% expected by economists and higher than the .0% print in July. Annualized, CPI is tracking +8.3% vs 8.5% previously and 8.1% expected by economists. Core CPI (excluding food & energy) was the biggest surprise, coming in at +.6% MoM in August, up from +.3% in July. Higher prices for food were particularly shocking, with grocery prices up .7% and food at dining establishments up .9%. With the Fed unlikely to ease up on the hiking cycle anytime soon, most assets are now in the red. We’re seeing interest rates higher across the yield curve, led by 1-2 year swap rates which are now in 4% territory. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr note is knocking on the door of 3.5%, the year-to-date high back in June. Mortgages are getting whacked hard here as well, with UMBS 4.5s down over ½ point on the day. Stocks are getting shattered; the DOW is currently down 726 points. JC (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/Cic6V3ku-v4/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Election is almost here. Vote responsibly. #america 🇺🇸 @frederick_frazier (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/CiasWDJJfAP/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

#america

Yes you are ❤️🥰😍😘 (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/CiNqIs2ODkO/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Tough start to the week for the bond market. Interest rates have moved higher this morning, reacting to surging energy costs in Europe which are raising fresh concerns that elevated inflation levels will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Over the holiday weekend, OPEC announced a modest pullback in oil production, while Russia announced it had indefinitely suspended the Nord Stream pipeline, which supplies natural gas to Europe. With energy prices sky-rocketing and access to natural gas being curtailed, there were a number of articles last week reporting Europeans were resorting to stone age tactics to stay warm this winter – notably, stockpiling firewood. According to Bloomberg, EU and UK governments scrambled over the weekend to implement energy price relief packages designed to reduce concerns that Russia could hold their economies hostage. Back in the US, yields are sharply higher as investors digest the news, effectively wiping out all of Friday’s rally. The 10yr yield is up to 3.23% and UMBS 4.5s are 19 tics in the hole already. Energy and inflation headlines are in the driver seat right now and the economic release calendar is void of any meaningful data this week. JC (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/CiK6rxWuxd6/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Mushroom field right in front of the house 🏡 🤣😂 https://www.instagram.com/p/Ch7U7vBu6L0/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Happy Monday! https://www.instagram.com/p/Ch2XgoxOW8t/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Tough start to the week for markets as concerns are growing that the Fed will deliver a hawkish message featuring more aggressive rate hikes from their symposium in Jackson Hole later this week. Generally, we’ve seen improvement across all financial markets throughout the summer – from cheaper gasoline to rallying stock markets and falling interest rates. But markets appear to be concerned that much of that optimism could be misplaced as the global economy tangles with double-digit rates of inflation. Today, the DOW traded off nearly 640 points as investors once again contemplated weaker credit markets and a slowing economy associated with further aggressive rate hiking by the Fed. 10yr yields have pushed back above 3%, after reaching 2.60% back in July. MBS also traded lower, with UMBS 4.5s giving back 8/32nds on the day. Right now, futures are pricing the odds of a 75bps rate hike in September at about 50%. More to come from Jackson Hole later this week. JC https://www.instagram.com/p/ChsJZAhu9VQ/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

⚡️🥰💰🏡🍾❤️ (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/ChkbsHeOEmk/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Happy Monday 🥰 (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/ChkRLB0O6po/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Ladies’ night at the local spot 🥰😍😘 (at Local Yocal BBQ & Grill) https://www.instagram.com/p/ChQezC_pDww/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Another good saying I read some years ago and go by it: We live only once (debatable), but if we live right - once is enough. https://www.instagram.com/p/ChIV-lQP3QQ/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

Financial markets continue to find some relief as cooler inflation numbers continue to roll in. This morning, PPI, a gage of prices paid for manufacturing inputs, came in lower than economists’ estimates. PPI year-over-year was 9.8% vs 10.4% expected and 11.3% the previous month. With volatile components like Food and Energy removed, producer prices still beat estimates at 7.6% and 7.7%. Interest rates and stock markets are both reacting positively, albeit we’ve not seen nearly the reaction we saw yesterday. Despite this week’s positive reading on inflation, please don’t forget that inflation rates are still at 9-10%, well above the Fed’s target rate of 2%. I like locking here – a lot can happen between now and the Fed’s next meeting in September. We’ll still see a 50-75bps rate hike at the next meeting, though the recent inflation numbers dramatically reduce the probability of a 100bps hike or an inter-meeting one, both drastic moves. MBS are up about 2 tics, but appear to be leaking lower as CPI euphoria wears off. Stocks are trading higher. JC (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/ChILJB5uIhJ/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

💯 (at Yulia Brown VP of Mortgage Lending NMLS: 1467981) https://www.instagram.com/p/ChFehiVOCWH/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

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