Braves Paul

I write about baseball - statistics, history, fun facts, all of it! I love the Atlanta Braves, but I love the game more. @BravesStats on Twitter, @BravesPaul on BlueSky.

[bravespaul]

Quasi-two-way (AL/NL) Players Since 1900

I'm using "quasi-two-way" as a category to include players who either had meaningful time as both pitcher and hitter, or were close enough to the two-way line to be worth mentioning. This excludes Shohei Ohtani, a true two-way player, and Babe Ruth who was a true two-way player for two seasons.

Joe Wood Stellar pitcher from 1908-1915, including a 23-win season in 1911 and 34-win season in 1912 that earned some MVP consideration. A high-strikeout pitcher for his day, hence the nickname "Smoky" and a shoulder injury that ended his pitching career. Also a decent batter, he switched to the OF and returned in 1918 and hit .298/.376/.433 from 1918-1922, bolstered by a stellar 1921 performance of .368/.432/.568 in half a season's worth of games. Faced with an OF platoon and citing family obligations, he did not return in 1923.

Reb Russell Very good pitcher for the White Sox from 1913-1918, launched to stardom as a rookie with 22 wins and 316 innings in 52 games (36 starts). Barely made the team in 1919 and was cut midseason to avoid being a member of the Black Sox scandal. Transitioned to OF in the minors from 1919-1921, and came back to the majors with the Pirates in 1922-1923. Batted .368 in 1922 alone, and in 154 (or a full season's worth of) games for those two seasons, he batted .323/.377/.568 with 32 2B, 15 3B, 21 HR, 100 R, 133 RBI. He continued to hit very well in the minors before calling it quits in 1930 at age 41.

Rube Bressler 1.77 ERA as a 19-year-old pitcher in 1914, but shifted to OF by the end of the decade, where he played from 1921-1932. Batted .350 (!) for a 3-year stretch from 1924-1926, and .301 for his career.

Johnny Cooney One of the few on this list who genuinely did both at the same time. Mostly a pitcher but also played primarily either OF or 1B for a season or two from 1921-1930. Toiled in the minors from 1931-1934 before returning to the majors as an OF from 1935-1944. Career .286 hitter but only 2 HR in 3675 PA. Played in parts of 20 MLB seasons and 5 more in the minors.

Bucky Walters Primarily 3B from 1931-1934, became the premier pitcher of the National League for the next decade. Philadelphia's hitter-friendly Baker Bowl inflated numbers from 1935-1937, though he claims those were his best years and the league recognized his talent and named him an All-Star in 1937. Upon being traded to the Reds midseason in 1938, the numbers revealed what opposing batters already knew. He was NL MVP the following season, and an All-Star in 5 of 6 years from 1939-1944, including two more top-5 MVP finishes. He had 121 wins during that 6-year stretch and finished his career with 198 wins

Johnny Lindell Came up as a pitcher in 1942 but quickly shifted to OF from 1943-1950. All-Star in 1943, led the league in triples in 1943 and 1944, led the league in total bases and received down-ballot MVP votes in 1944. Probably would have been 1947 World Series MVP if the award existed at the time: .500/.625/.778, 9-for-18, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 R, 7 RBI in 6 games. Bad slump in 1950 led to trade and demotion to minors in 1951, where he transition to pitcher and developed a successful knuckleball by 1952. Returned to majors for one year in 1953, led the league in walks and wild pitches, and called it a career.

Hal Jeffcoat Primarily a CF from 1948-1953 known for hustling, speed, and a good arm, his lack of prowess at the plate reduced him to defensive utility by 1953, and led to his conversion to pitcher in 1954. He had a shaky first season on the mound, but was solid as a swing man and starter from 1955-1957, before ending his career as a reliever by the end if 1959. Also notable: He and Madison Bumgarner are also the only two pitchers to allow a grand slam in the top of an inning, then hit a go-ahead home run in the bottom of the inning.

Dick Hall Came up as a CF in 1952-1954 (tried at 2B in 1953) before converting quite successfully to pitching. He lasted 17 years on the mound, with a solid career as a relief pitcher from 1955-1971. Known for excellent control, in his final 500 innings of his career, he issued only 26 unintentional walks (!), to go with 40 of the intentional variety. He also has the distinction of earning the first win in LCS history: Game 1 of the 1969 ALCS concluded as the NLCS was just getting underway, with Hall on the mound for the Orioles' walk-off win in the 12th.

Rick Ankiel ROY runner-up in 2000 as a pitcher (11-7, 3.50 ERA, 10.0 K/9), his only full year pitching. Returned as OF from 2007-2013, including a 25 HR season in his first full year back in 2008.

George Sisler (honorable mention) Actually a two-way player for his half-season in 1915, it was clear that he was too good of a hitter to stay on the mound. He's a HOF first baseman and one of only 14 hitters with a .340+ career BA in 5000+ PA. He hit .400 twice in 1920 and 1922, and set the single-season hits record in 1920 (257!) that stood for 84 years. Still, his 2.83 ERA in 70 innings in the second half of 1915 and 1.54 ERA in 41 innings scattered across the remainder of his career prove that the two-way talent was there.

Micah Owings (honorable mention) In MLB only from 2007-2012 primarily as a pitcher, but notable because he also frequently pinch-hit. He has a career batting line of .283/.310/.502 with 9 HR in 219 PA even with his latter-years slide. Multiply his batting stats by 3 for full-season approximation of 7.8 bWAR, 42 2B, 6 3B, 27 HR, 81 R, 105 RBI.

[bravespaul]

14-team MLB Postseason: A Modest Proposal

Since it seems the 14-team playoff field is Swiftly becoming a reality, and I've already written a way to do it that isn't totally horrible, here's another way to do it:

Three division champions start their playoff journey in the LDS. No exceptions. Four wild cards in each league play a single-elimination Wild Card Round tournament to advance to the LDS.

While we're at it, should we also expand the LDS to a best-of-7 like the LCS and World Series?

Let's discuss:

How It Would Work

The four wild card teams in each league would be seeded 1 to 4 according to regular season win-loss record, with #1 playing at home vs #4, and #2 playing at home vs #3, on the day when our current Wild Card Game is usually played.

Two days later, the winners of those two games will play to advance to the LDS, with the better seed playing at home. The LDS would begin two days after that, with the victorious wild card team traveling to the home park of the division winner with the best record in the league.

Importance of Regular Season

First and foremost, this eliminates concerns over diluting the playoff field and the playoffs becoming even more of a crapshoot. The wild card teams are disadvantaged by playing each other until only one emerges victorious, only to start the LDS on the road against the league's best team who has rested and reset their rotation.

And all three division winners in each league are in the LDS, as they should be. By the time the LDS begins, it feels more like the 1995-2011 playoff format, which was nearly perfect, with more of a gauntlet (read: great story) should a wild card team advance further.

Regular Season Incentive to Win

Among the 15 teams in each league, we will now have 7 playoff spots instead of 5, so more of the league will be competing for a chance to dance in October.

The automatic advancement into the LDS incentivizes teams in the playoff hunt to (a) play for division championships, (b) play for Wild Card home field advantage, and (c) play for a playoff spot. More teams will be competing until the end, with more spots and advantages to strive for.

Increase LDS from Best-of-5 to Best-of-7

Take or leave this part of the proposal, but hear me out: Let's say we expand the LDS so it is also a best-of-7, with the 2-home, 3-away, 2-home structure of the LCS and World Series.

Mathematically, it is much more likely for the better team to lose a shorter series than a longer one, so why is the first playoff series the shortest one?

More Games, More Spots, More Money

The Wild Card mini-tournament increases the total number of Wild Card Games from two to six. (read: $)

If we also boost the LDS from best-of-5 to best-of-7, we increase the minimum number of LDS games from 12 to 16, and the maximum number from 20 to 28. (read: $$)

By combining these proposals, we've increased the number of playoff games in these two rounds from 14 guaranteed to 22 guaranteed, and the potential maximum increases from 22 to 34. (read: $$$)

Yes, we've added days to the playoff calendar, but that impacts only the few teams who play deep into the most-watched playoff rounds (read: $$$$).

We would likely see more tickets sold as the regular season winds down as well, since more teams are competing for playoff spots.

CONCERNS

What if the Wild Card beats the league's best team in the LDS?

This is a real concern, but consider the gauntlet the wild card teams are put through: (1) play two win-or-go-home Wild Card Games, and emerge victorious only then to (2) visit the team with the best record in the league for the first two games of the LDS, and, (3) by the way, the league's best team is well-rested and has their rotation lined up.

All this to say: if the Wild Card Team wins the LDS, they earned it. (And if the league's best team loses the LDS, that's on them.)

Should wild card games be played at a neutral site?

I don't like this idea. Give them playoff home games, use the extra day on the calendar to sell tickets, ads, merchandise, etc. and promote the league and players. This ties into the next point.

Won't this push the World Series further into November?

Potentially. Probably. Or else the season my start slightly sooner. Or maybe the players and owners can agree to shorten the season slightly while not impacting player salaries negatively.

But stadiums in cold environments are increasingly built with roofs, and the only players playing in November are the ones playing for the championship (not to mention each playoff round's bonus paychecks). And I don't think anyone on the owners side would oppose playoff revenues coming in for a few more days.

[bravespaul]

Proposing a 160-game schedule and 14-team postseason

Let me preface this with a personal disclaimer:

I prefer a smaller playoff field that weights the regular season more heavily and decreases the impact of randomness on a champion’s quest through the playoff gauntlet. I also understand that we are trending in this direction, so I want to get ahead of it with a sensible proposal that, in my view, is a solid compromise. Most importantly: It seems feasible and enjoyable.

PROPOSAL: 160-game schedule and 14-team postseason

Unchanged: Assume current teams and divisional alignment (6 divisions × 5 teams = 30 teams).

Unchanged: AL and NL postseason games are staggered by one day until the World Series. NL starts first in even years; AL starts first in odd years.

Regular Season Schedule: Dates and Length

160 games = (22 weeks × 6 games) + (4 weeks × 7 games)

Schedule two 3-game series per week, with off days on Monday or Thursday. 2-game series are never scheduled.

Schedule four 4-game series, one vs each division rival, to play 7-game weeks only four times during the year, resulting in 160 games total. (Additional 4-game series may result from rescheduled games or special requests.)

Start season on Friday closest to April 2 (as early as March 30 or as late as April 5).

All-Star Break remains Monday through Thursday in mid-July.

End season on Sunday closest to September 30 (as early as September 27 or as late as October 3)

Season length is 26½ weeks (185 days).

The 4-game series will be distributed among team schedules to ensure that MLB games are played every day of the regular season outside of the All-Star Break.

Regular Season Schedule: Frequency of Opponents

38 games = 2 division rivals × (10 home + 9 road)

38 games = 2 division rivals x (9 home + 10 road)

(76 division rival games total; home/road advantage will alternate each year as it does now.)

60 games = 10 remaining intraleague teams × (3 home + 3 road)

24 games = 4 interleague teams × (3 home + 3 road)

Interleague opponents would rotate each season (play teams 1-4 in year 1, teams 5-8 in year 2, teams 9-12 in year 3, teams 13-15 and 1 in year 4, etc. cycling around in year 15 and playing teams 1-4 again in year 16.

See “Balanced Schedule” below.

14-team Postseason Format (7 teams per league):

Seven playoff teams; four wild cards.

Best-of-3 Wild Card Series; the best W-L record in each league enjoys a bye into the LDS.

Seeding: Seeds 1-2 are the two remaining division winners by W-L record. Seeds 3-6 are the four wild cards by W-L record.

Matchups: 1v6, 2v5, 3v4, with 1-seed (division winner), 2-seed (division winner), and 3-seed (best wild card) hosting all three games on consecutive days, akin to a regular season 3-game series.

LDS Reseeding: Reseed for the LDS, prioritizing division winners first, then regular season W-L record. Matchups are 1v4 and 2v3, with 1-seed and 2-seed earning home field advantage using the current 2-2-1 best-of-5 format.

LCS home field advantage prioritizes division winner first, then regular season W-L record, then (see Tiebreakers).

World Series home field advantage prioritizes regular season W-L record first, then division winner, then (see Tiebreakers).

Tiebreakers for home field advantage in LCS and World Series, if needed, proceed in this order (all from regular season unless otherwise noted): head-to-head W-L record (if applicable), intra-division W-L record, intra-league record, run differential, runs scored. Coin flip if tied: NL is heads in even years; AL is heads in odd years.

Postseason Schedule: Dates and Length under Current 10-team Format

Postseason is 26 to 30 days depending on length of WS.

WCG are Tue-Wed closest to Oct 2-3 (as early as Sep 29-30 or as late as Oct 5-6).

LDS is Thu-Thu closest to Oct 4-11 (as early as Oct 1-8 or as late as Oct 7-14).

LCS is Fri-Sun closest to Oct 12-21 (as early as October 9-18 or as late as Oct 15-24).

WS is Tue-Wed closest to Oct 23-31 (as early as Oct 20-28 or as late as Oct 26-Nov 3).

Postseason Schedule: Dates and Length under Proposed 14-team Format

Post season is 27 to 31 days depending on length of WS.

WCS are Tue-Thu closest to Oct 2-4 (as early as Sep 29-Oct 1 or as late as Oct 5-7). *Leagues are not staggered.

LDS are Fri-Fri closest to October 5-12 (as early as October 2-9 or as late as October 8-15).

LCS are Sat-Mon closest to Oct 13-22 (as early as Oct 10-19 or as late as Oct 16-25).

WS is Wed-Thu closest to Oct 24-Nov 1 (as early as Oct 21-29 or as late as Oct 27-Nov 4).

IMPACT

Shortened Regular Season: Impact on Player Salaries and Gate Revenue

Two additional scheduled days off may not sound like much, but they could be valuable rest days for players, coaches, and all others, potentially resulting in the same number of games played by "everyday" players with fewer personal days off on game days. Ideally this would have a small impact on the quality of on-field performance.

Under the 162-game schedule, every team plays 81 home games (39 Mon-Thu, 42 Fri-Sun). Under the 160-game schedule, every team would play 80 home games (38 Mon-Thu, 42 Fri-Sun). No weekend home dates are cut from the schedule.

For revenue consideration: MLB teams, combined, would lose 30 Monday/Thursday home games (one each).

See “For Consideration” below.

Consecutive Game Days and Travel Considerations

Except for the four rivalry weeks: One off day per week means no more than 9 consecutive scheduled game days between off days.

Team off days could and should be scheduled (or adjusted by request) to address travel. For example, stretches with 9 consecutive game days would always include three 3-game series (Tue-Thu, Fri-Sun, Mon-Wed) between Monday and Thursday off days, and could be ideal for home stands.

Before such a 9-game stretch, there would be the Monday off day, Fri-Sun weekend series, and possibly a Thursday off day for travel if needed. After such a 9-game stretch, there would be a Thursday off day, Fri-Sun weekend series, and possibly a Monday off day for travel if needed.

Wild Card Round significantly increases playoff revenue

The current Wild Card format includes only two games. The proposed Wild Card Series guarantees 12 games with potential for 18 (6 × Game 1, 6 × Game 2, and 6 × Game 3 if necessary), an increase of 10-16 games while adding only two days to the postseason calendar.

Playoff Race Performance Incentive

There are multiple incentives for teams to keep performing at their best as the regular season nears its end:

(1) Wild Card Series bye encourages division leaders to compete for best W-L record.

(2) Hosting the Wild Card Series encourages competing not only for division championships, but also for best W-L record among wild cards.

(3) Wild Card Series seeding encourages more teams to jockey for W-L record position and avoid a tough Wild Card Round matchup.

(4) Seeding favors division winners, encouraging a runaway wild card leader and its division leader to keep competing.

(5) More wild card spots encourage more teams to be competitive at the trade deadline.

Balanced Schedule (in the long run)

While the varying interleague matchups may not be balanced in any given year, the rotation would be balanced to ensure all teams play all other teams the same number of games over time. Future performance is not assumed; therefore, the schedule is balanced in the long run.

Identifying the 1st week through 26th week of the season

This is inconsequential, but: Before the All-Star Break, the Nth week of the season is Friday-Thursday, starting with Opening Day. The week that includes the All-Star Break comprises the two weekends before and after the break (Friday-Sunday, break, Friday-Sunday). After the All-Star Break, the Nthweek of the season is Monday-Sunday, ending with the final Sunday when all games are scheduled to begin at roughly the same time.

FOR CONSIDERATION

Cost/Benefit Analysis: Loss of 30 Monday/Thursday regular season games (3 per team) compared to gain of 10-16 Wild Card Series games (see below). In-seat attendance + nationwide viewing of 10 playoff games will outweigh that of 30 regular season Monday/Thursday home games.

Starting the World Series on Tuesday (current format) puts Games 3, 4, 5 on Friday, Saturday, Sunday. The new proposal would start the World Series on Wednesday, putting Games 3, 4, 5 on Saturday, Sunday, Monday.

Other thoughts? Fire away!

[bravespaul]

Nick Markakis: owner of MLB’s longest-ever errorless games streak

Nick Markakis is not the first name that comes to mind when I’m asked to name all-time great defensive outfielders.  He isn’t flashy or speedy, and he doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, and I can’t pinpoint a memory of a great play he made.

However, he makes the most of the tools he has to be a very solid defender.  He rarely makes a mistake in the field and usually takes excellent routes to balls in play, and he has two Gold Gloves to show for it.

And through Tuesday, June 16th, he has played in 391 consecutive games in the outfield without making an error, one short of Darren Lewis’s all-time MLB record of 392 straight games.  Markakis can tie Lewis tonight and pass him tomorrow in front of his home crowd at Turner Field.  And almost no one will know about it.

(Fun anniversary fact:  Lewis broke the previous record 22 years ago today, June 16th, 1993, when he played his 243rd straight errorless game.  He then added a 149-game cushion.)

Darren Lewis’s streak is actually MLB’s longest games streak at any and all positions.  Or was, I should say.  Nick Markakis’s 391st consecutive errorless game in the outfield last night was actually his 393rd consecutive errorless game overall, including two games at first base, meaning Nick Markakis just broke a Major League record that no one is talking about.

And I get it.  Nick Markakis is not the greatest right fielder of all time, and an errorless streak seems more random than incredible with today’s fancy new stats flying around, especially considering being charged an error (or not) occasionally depends on how the official scorer in the stadium feels that day.

But an errorless streak of nearly 2½ seasons is still an incredible feat.

And it doesn’t stop here.  Markakis hasn’t totally pushed Darren Lewis out of the record books, and he never will.  Markakis’s errorless streak (in the outfield) has been entirely confined to right field.  Lewis played 387 of his 392 games in center field, and that 387-game streak will probably be the center field record for a long time.  Lewis’s streak was also at the start of his career (another record that will likely stand for a while), so he wasn’t even an everyday player yet when his streak began.

But what this really means is that Markakis has touched the baseball fewer times (i.e. had fewer opportunities to make an error) than Lewis did while Lewis was playing a slightly more difficult position (so conventional baseball wisdom says).  Lewis’s streak of 946 consecutive errorless chances* in the outfield is still Lewis’s record.  Markakis has handled only 790 chances in the outfield during his streak, but at about two per game, he could catch Lewis this summer if he avoids a miscue.

(*I put an asterisk by “chance” because it is an official MLB statistic, the sum of putouts, assists, and errors.  It does not include base hits fielded or involvement in other plays, all of which are opportunities to make an error.)

So there you have it:  a record very few people care about because errorless streaks are no longer as glamorous as they were in the early 1990s when Topps “Record Breaker” cards acknowledged them annually.  Like assigning “wins” to a pitcher, there are better statistics than errors to measure a player’s defensive ability.

But errors will always be part of the game, and this is a significant achievement that should be recognized.  Congratulations, Nick Markakis!

p.s. The first 328 games of Markakis’s streak were with the Orioles, just eight games short of Rich Amaral’s AL record of 336 straight errorless games in the outfield.  So if Markakis ever goes back to the AL…

[bravespaul]

Ideas to Improve the All-Star Game

These are just ideas!  Food for thought, hopefully.

1. Remove the tie-in to home field advantage in the World Series and go back to alternating NL and AL home field advantage each year, or -- even better -- give the home field advantage to the team with the better regular season record.

2. Reduce the fan vote's impact to 50% and let the players and coaches vote for the other 50% impact. Fans would be similar to the House of Representatives (larger fan bases would carry more weight, as they do now), and the players and coaches would be like the Senate (same weight per team). For vote totals, use percentages. Add each individual player's percentage from fans to to the percentage from players/coaches, and divide by two to average the two. It still won't be perfect, but it will be better.

(Alternative: Also include the BBWAA and divide by three, or 50/25/25, whatever.)

3. For reserves, if a late June injury for an obviously deserving player will keep him out of the game, select him anyway. Don't take "All-Star" off his resume just because he got hurt. Select him, let him defer, and make another selection.

4. On the Sunday before the All-Star break, start all MLB games early (similar to the last day of the season last year), since some very entertaining All-Star festivities take place Sunday evening. Let the entire baseball world join in the fun of those events.

5. If #1 is approved and it’s back to being an exhibition, then allow players who have not played in 5+ innings to return if a game goes to extra innings.  This is just to avoid a tie, but if it’s truly an exhibition, I think it’s worth thinking about it.

6. [Added 6/4] LET FANS VOTE FOR PITCHERS. It’s ridiculous that we can’t. MLB’s excuse must be the effort required to put them on the ballot, but this is the 21st Century so that doesn’t work for me. If it were up to me, I’d want to choose three starters (similar to how we choose outfielders) and two relievers per league, but just one of each would be nice.  (If this ever happens, All-Star managers should still determine who starts the game the same way they do now.)

7. [Added 6/17] Open the voting for only a short time frame. (If American Idol could get millions of votes on a Tuesday night, MLB can hype two weeks to a month of All-Star voting.)  Don’t open voting until at least June 1. I think June 1 to June 30 is reasonable.

[bravespaul]

2015 MLB Predictions

NL East: Washington Nationals NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates NL West: San Diego Padres NL Wildcard: St. Louis Cardinals NL Wildcard: Chicago Cubs AL East: Baltimore Orioles AL Central: Chicago White Sox AL West: Seattle Mariners AL Wildcard: Toronto Blue Jays AL Wildcard: Oakland Athletics World Series: Mariners over Nationals NL MVP: Jason Heyward  (dark horse: Christian Yelich) NL CY: Clayton Kershaw  (dark horse: Shelby Miller) NL ROY: Kris Bryant (dark horse: Jace Peterson Oops, not eligible.) NL Comeback: Jose Fernandez (dark horse: Dan Uggla) AL MVP: Mike Trout (dark horse: Kyle Seager) AL CY: Felix Hernandez (dark horse: Chris Archer) AL ROY: Taijuan Walker (dark horse: Joey Gallo) AL Comeback: Alex Rodriguez (dark horse: Giovanny Soto)

[bravespaul]

2015 Braves: Things to Watch For

I’ve set some over/under bars for a few stats, asked a few questions, and listed several random achievements that most people won’t care about. Enjoy!

2014-to-2015 OVER/UNDER!

Compared to these 2014 totals, will the 2015 Braves achieve numbers that are higher or lower?

Team Totals: Wins: 79 (I say higher: ~85) Runs scored: 573 (I say higher: ~675) Runs allowed: 597 (I say higher: ~620) Home runs hit: 123 (I say lower: ~120) Batter strikeouts: 1369 (I say lower: ~1200) Number of hitters with 140+ strikeouts: 4 (I say lower: 1)

Individual Totals: Team leader, wins: 14 (I say higher: 16) Team leader, stolen bases: 20 (I say higher: ~25) Freddie Freeman, walks: 90 (I say lower: ~80) Freddie Freeman, home runs: 18 (I say higher: ~25) Nick Markakis, home runs: 14 (I say lower: ~10)

PREDICT THE 2015 BRAVES!

Will Craig Kimbrel earn 40+ saves? (previous totals were 46, 42, 50, 47) My guess: yes, although now with Padres Starting lineup: Who will hit leadoff the most? My guess: Young Starting lineup: Who will hit cleanup the most? My guess: Freeman Who will get the most starts in left field? My guess: Gomes Who will get the most starts in center field? My guess: Young Who is your lock to make the All-Star team? My guess: Freeman Which team leader in strikeouts will have more, the pitcher or the batter? My guess: pitcher, made easier by Uptons’ departure

NOTED NOTABLES:

Freddie Freeman is the first first baseman in the Braves’ Opening Day lineup for five straight seasons in Atlanta history, and the first in franchise history since Joe Adcock from 1953-57. (The only first baseman to do it six straight was Earl Torgeson from 1947-52 in Boston.)

Julio Teheran is the Braves’ first Opening Day starting pitcher in back to back seasons since Derek Lowe 2009-11 (before that: Greg Maddux 1993-96).

With Mike Minor (566 career strikeouts) on the DL, the franchise leader in strikeouts among pitchers on the active roster is Craig Kimbrel with 476 UPDATE: Julio Teheran with 371.

When Craig Kimbrel earns his 500th strikeout (in mid/late May?), he will be the fastest ever to reach that mark in terms of innings pitched or batters faced. (That record may be short-lived if Aroldis Chapman keeps up the strikeout pace he maintained in 2014.) UPDATE: This is still true, though Kimbrel will be in a San Diego uniform.

Nick Markakis has appeared in 147+ games in every year but one in his career (155+ in all but two). He is 135 games short of 1500 for his career.

AJ Pierzynski needs 133 hits to reach 2000 for his career. He has 133+ hits in 7 of the last 14 seasons, and 3 of the last 4.

Kelly Johnson is 17 hits (and 1 strikeout) from 1000 for his career.

Alberto Callaspo is 4 games from 1000, 305 plate appearances from 4000, and 117 hits from 1000 for his career.

Johnny Gomes has hit a home run in the first game after the All-Star break in three straight seasons.

Fredi Gonzalez is 8th on the Braves all-time managerial wins list with 358. He only needs 22 wins to pass Casey Stengel and Lum Harris, and 76 to tie Billy Southworth for 5th. (If he sticks around, he won’t approach 4th place until early/mid 2017.)

FRANCHISE: The 1,602nd plate appearance of the season will be the 300,000th since the Braves moved to Atlanta.

FRANCHISE: The 67th home run of the season will be the 7,500th since the Braves moved to Atlanta.  CHRIS JOHNSON, 8/3/2015, 7th INNING

FRANCHISE: The 45th double of the season will be the 30,000th in Braves franchise history (since 1871!).

TURNER FIELD: Entering 2015, the Braves have hit exactly 2,500 doubles at Turner Field.

TURNER FIELD: The 42nd game at Turner Field in 2015 will be the 1,500th regular season game in Turner Field history.  7/18/2015

TURNER FIELD: The Braves’ 1,591st at-bat at Turner Field will be their 50,000th since the park opened.

TURNER FIELD: The Braves’ 176th strikeout (batting) at Turner Field will be their 10,000th since the park opened.  FREDDIE FREEMAN, 6/9/2015, 1st INNING

TURNER FIELD: The 1,218th at-bat will be the 100,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).  JACE PETERSON, 5/21/2015, FLY OUT, 5th INNING

TURNER FIELD: The 186th double will be the 5,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).

TURNER FIELD: The 386th walk will be the 10,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).

TURNER FIELD: The 10th intentional walk will be the 1,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).  FREDDIE FREEMAN, 5/24/2015

TURNER FIELD: The 460th total base will be the 40,000th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).  ASDRUBAL CABRERA, 5/19/2015, HOME RUN

TURNER FIELD: The 17th triple will be the 500th in Turner Field history (both teams combined).

[bravespaul]

Opening Day Roster Projection

Just for fun, here's my pre-Spring Training prediction of the Braves' 25-man roster on Opening Day. Some explanation is offered below. Check back in six weeks to see how right (or wrong) I am!

SP Julio Teheran SP Alex Wood SP Mike Minor SP Shelby Miller SP Eric Stults RP Craig Kimbrel RP Jason Grilli RP Jim Johnson RP James Russell RP Josh Outman RP Aroldys Vizcaino RP Luis Avilan C Christian Bethancourt 1B Freddie Freeman 2B Alberto Callaspo 3B Chris Johnson SS Andrelton Simmons LF Eric Young CF BJ Upton RF Nick Markakis C AJ Pierzynski IF Phil Gosselin UT Kelly Johnson OF Jonny Gomes OF Zoilo Almonte

Thought Processes...

Rotation: Braves brass will want one starter older than Minor, and I pick Stults because I think he is the best candidate to be this year's Harang. Wandy and Wang just don't have it any more, and I doubt both will still be in the Braves organization on Opening Day. As for the youngsters waiting in the wings: Foltynewicz has some arm slot issues to work out before he can be successful at the Major League level. Bañuelos needs some seasoning (averages fewer than 5 IP per start, which is low even for the minors). Hursh, Perez, and Martin will probably round out the rotation in Gwinnett and will hopefully be interesting by late 2015 or Spring 2016.

Bullpen: Grilli, Johnson, and Russell are almost certainly locks. Outman is out of options, and Vizcaino appears to be, so they'd need to have an awful spring not to make the cut. Assuming the Braves roll with 12 pitchers, that leaves room for only one more. I pick Avilan on the wild assumption that last April's hamstring injury contributed largely to last year's inconsistency, and he'll return to prior form.

Bench: Pierzynski is really the only lock. I assume Johnson's ability to play multiple positions gives him a good chance to make the team, and having a lefty bat on the bench doesn't hurt. I assume either Young or Gomes will be the starting left fielder, and both make the team. I picked Gosselin over Pastornicky because he seems slightly better in my opinion and he's a year older. I assume Almonte makes the team mostly because he's a switch hitter and has decent skills as a hitter and a runner, which makes him more useful off the bench than Pastornicky or Gosselin, but we might cringe a little as his strikeout totals pile up.

All this is assumes no one gets hurt or traded along the way. Yeah, good luck with that.

[bravespaul]

Speeding Up The Game

The idea of speeding up the game has been discussed at length in recent weeks, and while I haven't liked many of the ideas, this one occurred to me just this morning.

I haven't thought this all the way through, so adjustments may be appropriate, or it may be a terrible idea.  But it's at least fair in that it addresses time wasted by both the hitter and the pitcher.  So... Here it is.

Once the home plate umpire has determined that the plate appearance is ready to begin and the pitcher may begin the pitching process...

The hitter cannot call "time out." (There will be circumstances when the progress of the game will be paused, of course, but the hitter can't initiate it.  Not to disrupt the pitcher's timing, not if he has a bug in his eye.  He's there to hit, and he has the option to duck out of the way at risk of taking a strike.)

If the pitcher steps off the rubber three times during one hitter's plate appearance, it will equate to a ball to the batter, similar to a fault in tennis, and similar to the automatic strike a hitter earns if he refuses to step into the batter's box and a pitcher rolls the ball across the plate.  (I remember this happening to Ron Gant many years ago.)

The pace of the game would pick up to the tune of a few seconds per at-bat, and perhaps (let's say) 30 to 60 seconds per half inning.  I've done no research to verify how much time would actually be saved, but that would shave 9 to 18 minutes per game without a significantly observable difference to how the game is played - other than forcing players into playing instead of posturing.

My apologies to the writers of any software that would have to adjust to a ball being "pitched" without a pitch being thrown.

[bravespaul]

Pitchers' Effectiveness Rating

My favorite baseball stat that I formulated myself: I call it "Effectiveness" or the "Effectiveness Rating."  I love it because of how simple it is.

EFF = 3 * IP / BF

It's the out percentage of opposing batters faced.  Mathematically its range is 1.000 (facing the minimum is the pitching equivalent of batting 1.000) to .000 (zero outs recorded), so it's easy to digest.

It doesn't matter how the outs are recorded (or who helped record the out). Whether pitching to contact or putting up fielding-independent numbers to make the "sabermatics" (h/t Chris Berman) happy, all that matters is how many outs were recorded per batter faced. This "effectiveness" rates everyone the same.

I also love that inherited runners' runs scored aren't charged entirely to starters when relievers earn some of the advance around the bases, but that's minor.

Here are the top 20 starters and relievers at the All-Star Break in 2014:

You shouldn't be surprised that the opposite end of the spectrum includes pitchers who allow very high BA/OBP/SLG to opposing hitters.  I included some of these other stats so you can see how they might correlate.

For my next trick, I'd like to compare how teams' Effectiveness (and/or all of MLB) has evolved over the years.  Maybe in my next post.

[bravespaul]

How to fix the All-Star Game

1. Remove the tie-in to home field advantage in the World Series and go back to alternating NL and AL home field advantage each year.

2. Reduce the fan vote's impact to 50%. Let the players and coaches vote for the other 50% impact. Fans would be similar to the House of Representatives (larger fan bases would carry more weight, as they do now), and the players and coaches would be like the Senate (same weight per team). For vote totals, use percentages. Add each individual player's percentages together and divide by two to keep the number below 100%. It still won't be perfect, but it will be better.

Alternative: Also include baseball writers. Either 1/3 impact each for fans, players/coaches, BBWAA... or 1/2 fans, 1/4 players/coaches, 1/4 BBWAA.

3. For reserves, if a late June injury for an obviously deserving player will keep him out of the game, select him anyway. Don't take "All-Star" off his resume just because he got hurt. Select him, let him defer, and make another selection.

4. Start all MLB games early on Sunday afternoon before the All-Star break, since All-Star festivities like the Futures Game and Celebrity Softball Game take place Sunday evening. Let the entire baseball world join in the fun of those events.

5. There are far more "all star" pitchers than there are roster spots. Boost each roster by three just for extra pitchers, and require that at least three pitchers (any three, not based on order selected) must be available for possible extra innings.  Unless, of course, the would-be-last pitcher is injured in the ninth inning.

6. NO TIES.  Item 5 would help with this.

7. It's an exhibition, so if it goes into deep extras, bring back players who were replaced.  Perhaps require an absence of so many innings (I'm thinking six innings).

[bravespaul]

Paul's 2014 Predictions

Short version: Braves will win 90+ games again and will be right in the thick of the playoff hunt. Of course, I say they make the playoffs, but it should be a good race to the end, and good or bad luck could shift things either way.

Long version: Click below to read more if you're interested in my optimistic outlook on the Braves 2014 season, as well as my playoff picks and individual award winners across MLB.

Braves Predictions:

Obvious topic #1: Dan Uggla and BJ Upton will not repeat the sub-.190 batting averages of 2013. I expect both to hit around .240, with much more power from Uggla and more speed from Upton. (Uggla is now fully recovered from both eye surgery and a divorce, so he's finally fully focused again.)  Key point: The Braves won 96 games last year with these two batting .179 and .184, and injuries affecting various other key players.  If these two improve just a little, 90+ wins should be a lock.

Obvious topic #2: With Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy both lost for the year for their second Tommy John surgeries, the Braves had to make some knee-jerk moves to replace them. No one is quite sure why the Braves still decided to release Freddy Garcia, who pitched very well down the stretch last year. (My theory: Garcia had an opt-out clause in his contract and might have planned to opt out the next day anyway to pursue a better contract after his excellent spring.) Good news: Julio Teheran and Mike Minor should be as solid as they were last year, and Alex Wood looks ready to emerge as the Braves next great, young pitcher.

Newcomer Ervin Santana should very solid; he has through-the-roof talent that occasionally shows itself, and he's young enough for lightning to strike.  Hopefully Roger McDowell works some magic on him.  I am less optimistic about Aaron Harang, but for the price, he's a solid fifth pitcher; fingers crossed that he doesn't give up too many home runs.  And if he does, I expect our bullpen to be every bit as solid as it was last year, especially with the best closer in all of baseball anchoring the back end of it.

I also expect big improvements at the plate from Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons. Heyward will finally emerge as the superstar we knew he could be, and Simmons will reach base a bit more consistently (possibly with fewer home runs, but I predict 15 or so). Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, and Chris Johnson are most likely repeat their 2013 performances, with Chris Johnson's batting average probably dipping just a bit; I doubt he chases a batting title again, but I wouldn't complain!

Braves in 2014: 94 wins, NL East champions.

MLB Predictions

NL Playoff Teams: Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals (WC), Pirates (WC) AL Playoff Teams: Rays, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox (WC), Royals (WC) World Series: Angels over Dodgers

NL MVP:  Jason Heyward, Braves AL MVP:  Mike Trout, Angels NL CY:  Jose Fernandez, Marlins AL CY:  Felix Hernandez, Mariners NL Rookie:  Billy Hamilton, Reds AL Rookie:  Jose Abreu, White Sox NL Comeback:  Dan Uggla, Braves AL Comeback:  Grady Sizemore, Red Sox

[bravespaul]

Celebrate Pi Day with eight great former Braves! And I'll never forget the first 12 digits of pi again. (I put this together for Pi Day 2014.)

[bravespaul]

2014 Braves Milestones to Watch For

Just a few round numbers and team records on the horizon:

The year should belong to Craig Kimbrel. He needs two saves to reach 141 to tie Gene Garber for second, and 15 saves to reach 154 to tie John Smoltz for most saves in Braves history. Every save after that will set a new Braves record. Also, if Kimbrel earns 40 saves, he'll become only the third pitcher ever with 40 saves in four straight seasons after Francisco Rodriguez in 2005-2008, and Trevor Hoffman (twice) in 1998-2001 and 2004-2007.

Speaking of 100, four Braves hitters are approaching home run milestones:  Jason Heyward's first double this year will be the 100th of his career, and he needs 27 home runs to reach 100.  Freddie Freeman needs 32 home runs and 7 doubles to reach 100 of each.  Dan Uggla is 23 home runs short of 100 in a Braves uniform.  And newcomer Ryan Doumit's first home run as a Brave will be the 100th of his career.

For a couple of bigger numbers:  Uggla has 231 doubles and 231 home runs, so he's 19 away from 250 in each category, and Freeman is 19 hits shy of 500.

Ervin Santana needs 172 strikeouts to reach 1500, Gavin Floyd needs 98 strikeouts to reach 1000, and Mike Minor is only 54 short of 500.  Aaron Harang is one win short and two losses short of 100 for National League teams, and he needs 54⅔ innings to reach 2000.  Harang is also closing in on his 1000th allowed run (989) and 1000th earned run allowed (925).

Fredi Gonzalez is already the third-winningest manager for the Braves since the move to Atlanta in 1966, and his 279 wins as Braves manager are exactly 100 short of Lum Harris's second place total.  However, he should be a lock jump from 12th to 8th; he only needs 62 wins for that, and a total of 94 would tie him for 7th with Casey Stengel - which then brings us back to Harris at 379.  (For personal records:  the Braves' 45th win of the year will be Fredi's 600th of his career.)

And finally, franchise stats!  Since the move to Atlanta, the Braves have won 3960 games, so their 40th win will be the 4000th.  They also need only 188 home runs to reach 7500 since the move to Atlanta, but only 34 home runs to reach 13000 in franchise history since 1876.

[bravespaul]

Back for 2014

Baseball is finally back, and so am I! I stopped rather abruptly last season as I shifted my focus to Mercer Bears football, so abruptly in fact that I never announced the winner of my bracket challenge, so I'll welcome everyone to 2014 with that!

Winning my MLB Playoff Bracket Challenge by correctly predicting all four LDS winners, the ALCS winner, and the World Series winner, was @rgcox2820!  @katiebravesfan actually predicted all four LDS winners and both the ALCS and NLCS winners, but picked the wrong champion!  So close!

In my rules, I stated that I'd give away a baseball card signed by Dale Murphy if at least 50 people played.  Including me, only 19 played.  I decided to give away the card anyway!  After all, I have two, which he sent me for winning one of his fastest-finger Twitter trivia questions a couple of years ago.  Paying it forward!  Here's the prize I sent:

Congrats, Ryan!  And good luck to you and everyone else playing fantasy baseball this year!

[bravespaul]

MLB Playoff bracket challenge! Use this sheet as your guide for making your picks and tracking your points. Rules: (1) Tell me who wins each LDS series and how many games each will take. (2) Based on those winners, tell me who wins each LCS series and how many games each will take. (3) Based on those winners, tell me who wins the World Series and how many games it will take. (4) You can choose the wrong winner and still earn a point if you get the correct number of games for any series. (5) Email your picks to [email protected] by first pitch Thursday, Oct. 3! (6) If there is a tie, the winner will be randomly selected. (7) If I receive 50 or more submissions before first pitch, the winner will receive one baseball card autographed by Dale Murphy. (8) If I win, I keep my card! My picks will be online before first pitch. (9) Questions? Ask me via the email address above or via Twitter @Braves_Paul.

[bravespaul]