Starcraft Betting Blog

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Round 2 Final

Unfortunately can’t give this breakdown the time and love it deserves so I’ll get right into the odds and my picks. 

Here are the current odds on betcoin.ag

KT Rolster: -143, -1.5 +153

Jin Air Greenwings: +112, +1.5 -217

Stats: -167

Trap: +130

Considering this is all kill format, it really only takes one great player to win the whole thing (as evidenced by playoff bronze and silver rounds). Both of these teams are not lacking truly elite talent. The top of the heap for Jin Air is Maru, followed by Rogue, and then the recently inconsistent in Proleague sOs. Trap is also a great player and is not a guy you can overlook. KT has the best player in the world, Zest, and they also have TY and Stats. Those three are 3/4 of the SSL/GSL season 1 finals. 

The marquee match up everyone is dying to see is Maru vs Zest, although Zest has gotten the upper hand the last few times they have played. Honestly no matter who comes out all the games should be excellent. I think Zest is too much to handle, couple that with having to contend with Stats and TY and I think Jin Air is the ones who have more to worry about simply due to the all kill format.

I am betting on KT -143 and -1.5 @ +153. 

[capc1ty-blog]

WCS SPRING CHAMPIONSHIP AND PROLEAGUE ROUND 2 PLAYOFFS

What a time to be alive.

We get to see Polt vs Nerchio and MaSa vs ShowTime in the WCS Spring Round of 4, and also Proleague Playoffs kick off with Classic vs Byul.

Lets look at current WCS odds on Betcoin.ag first.

WCS ROUND OF 4

Match 1: 

Polt: -149, -1.5 @ +146

Nerchio: +117, +1.5 @ -208

I’m having flashbacks to WCS winter with this matchup. That tournament was the first in which I made Starcraft 2 bets, I don’t think I will ever forget the strats I employed to make that a winning tournament. The main insight I used in that tournament was pretty simple: Bet on Polt early and often. He didn’t disappoint me then, and he didn’t disappoint me last round in a series vs Elazer that was quite frightening early. 

The players have met twice in Legacy of the Void. Polt won the first match at the WCS Winter Championship so some may think this is Nerchio’s chance for revenge, however he already found revenge by defeating Polt in the Ting Open. Obviously that was online, and we all know Polt doesn’t treat online cups as seriously as offline events. This is offline and Polt has a killer instinct, we’ve seen it time and time again. I think Polt beats Nerchio again and the current odds offer a great value. 

I bet on Polt -149

Match 2:

ShowTime: -169, -1.5 @ +141

Masa: +131, + 1.5 @ -200

ShowTime started this tourney a bit slow but turned things around by defeating viOLet 3-0 in the round of 8. MaSa has looked good, despite a close series with puCK in the round of 32. I think Dreamhack Austin was only the beginning for MaSa, and tonight is when he takes the next step. If you try to use the transitive property of TvP then this seems a bit unlikely considering ShowTime is a superior player to puCK, and puCk gave MaSa trouble. That said puCK and MaSa are two top NA players and they see each other all the time in online cups, ladder, and regional offline events. MaSa might be the best multitasker in NA and I don’t think ShowTime will be well prepared until a few games have already been played. I like the upset here. 

I will bet on MaSa but am waiting to see if the number gets any better. 

Proleague Playoffs

Time for the all kill format we’ve all been waiting for! I’m going to list the team odds first, then the individual odds and talk about the odds and series as a whole after. 

SK Telecom T1: -333, -1.5 @ -179

CJ Entus: +246, +1.5 @ +128

Classic: -185

ByuL: +144

Its kind of crazy to see SKT even playing in round one considering they were the overall favorite before the season started, and they were the season one champs. I think part of it had to do with numerous players making it deep in individual leagues, so attention was divided. It also didn’t help that INnoVation took a to downturn. CJ has been rather disappointing as well, they backed into the playoffs with a -3 win differential. Lucky for CJ, this is all kill format and they have herO, but still, the prospect of potentially having to face and defeat the likes of Dark, Classic, INnoVation, Dream and soO is a lot to ask, and a lot to prepare for. ByuL is widely considered the second best player CJ has, but he has under performed this season and has a pedestrian 6-6 proleague record on the year. After those two, the CJ lineup drops off a lot. Their third man up is likely Bunny or RagnaroK, and lets face it, neither of them is scaring anyone. I already went down the laundry list of SKT beasts, so yeah, if its not been made clear yet, CJ has their work cut out for them. 

But lets talk a bit more about this all kill format and more specifically how I think SKT could shut down herO when he inevitably gets called to the stage. I think the only guys I wouldn’t favor herO against are Dark and Dream, so now it becomes a matter of guessing when we think herO could potentially face either.

My guess is that CJ won’t send herO out until SKT is on match point. If Classic beats ByuL I could see CJ sending out someone completely unexpected such as Hush, they’ve shown confidence by calling his name vs Zest x2 and Blaze in his last 3 Proleague games (he lost all three). But he also recently 2-0′d Choya and Trap in GSL and SSL qualifiers (he also defeated Hyun, Soulkey, and NoRegret in the qualifiers so he could def be a surprise PvZ choice). Without the ability to prepare for Hush specifically, I give him a real shot at the upset due to the overall rise in his form recently. 

We are now fairly deep into the hypotheticals so lets get back on the rails of this logic train.

If SKT starts out 2-0, then herO comes out, he should defeat Classic. My guess is that SKT will send out someone else before bringing in the Big gun known as Dark because why use his energy and potentially display builds if not completely necessary? If they send out anyone besides Dark, the only one who scares me is Dream, but even he has shown weakness vs P recently (his historical strength). He lost to Trap in his last Proleague game, and also lost to Hurricane in Qualifiers last week. So all the sudden this series going to ace match becomes all the more likely. 

That was a lot of writing to get to the simple fact that I believe herO will win two matches tonight as long as the coaches both teams’ coaches don’t show their hands early.

I am looking at taking CJ +1.5 if I can get +money. 

[capc1ty-blog]

WCS SPRING CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND OF 16

Yesterday was awesome, weird games, cool games, fun games, cheese games, upsets, day 1 had it all. Now lets get into the round of 16 matchups and look at the current odds on betcoin.ag. 

Polt: -222, -1.5 @ -110

uThermal: +170, +1.5 @ -125

Thus far EnVyUsPolt is nowhere near the dominant force CMStorm Polt was. He was very nearly 3-0′d by strange, but managed to come back and win the series (which included a crazzzzzy draw). uThermal started the year a bit slow, but as of late he has been on fire. I think he is a live dog tonight.

ShowTime: -313, -1.5 @ -145

Guru: +233, +1.5 @ +104

My biggest goof yesterday was deciding not to pull the trigger on Guru. He came out strong and 3-1′d Snute. Meanwhile ShowTime had a hard fought series against SortOf, which he won 3-2. Guru is ZvP specialist and is tired of being overshadowed by his countrymen, Elazer and Nerchio. ShowTime has historically dominated this series, and has won 3 of their last 4 meetings. Still though I like what Guru showed yesterday. If he brings the right mentality he easily could win this.

I bet Guru +233 and +1.5 @ +104.

Elazer: -222 , -1.5 @ -104

Has: +169 , +1.5 @ +132

Elazer is a rising star in Europe, Has is infamous the world over because of his crazy aggressive strategies. So far this year we have seen Has using more and more macro oriented strategies, which has thrown many of his opponents off. Yesterday Elazer looked a bit indecisive and almost lost to the Chinese Terran XY in a close 3-2 series. Happy played Has tough and displayed excellent early defense. The issue was that Has has improved immensely in late game macro. You no longer can expect to get an auto win if you hold off the opening cheese. Has uses a style that doesn’t make sense on paper which confuses his opponents. I like Has as a dog here simply because there is no good way to prepare for a match against him and his repertoire is much more diverse than what we’ve seen int he past. 

I bet on Has +169.

viOLet: -526 , -1.5 @ -227, -2.5 @ +165

Iaguz: +358 , +1.5 @ +158, +2.5 @ -238

These two players met last week and Austin and viOLet dominated, winning the series 3-0. Generally Iaguz fairs pretty well vs Zerg, and he gets plenty of practice in his region. Even still, viOLet is better than anyone currently playing in AUS/SEA, which is the region ‘guz calls home. Iaguz is a prideful guy and I don’t think he will show as poorly as he did last week. I expect viOLet to win a close series.

I bet Iaguz +1.5 @ +158

Nerchio: -278 , -1.5 @ -139

Scarlett: +207 , +1.5 @ + 101

Like Scarlett’s odds yesterday, this number jumped off the page at me. Nerchio is arguably the best Zerg in Europe, but come on guys, Scarlett is a top 20-30 Korean GM after training in Seoul a few months. Nerchio’s skill level is in no way going to overwhelm her. What happens when you hang out with savages all day? You become a savage yourself... Scarlett is gone and now we have Savagelett. Sorry that was horrible. Back to analysis: I am by no means saying Nerchio doesn’t have a chance to win this, but this game should be capped at a pick. Huge value on Scarlett er Savagelett.

I bet on Scarlett +207.

Bunny: -149 , -1.5 @ +146

MaSa: +117 , +1.5 @ -204

Bunny impressed me yesterday, he was very well prepared for his match with PtitDrogo. MaSa was impressive as well, continuing his win streak vs puCK with a 3-2 result. I love both of these players but overall MaSa is stronger at TvT (albeit against lesser opponents than Bunny usually plays). Still though MaSa has made it deep in pretty much every tournament he has played this year, whereas Bunny has not been the same guy we saw in HotS. Value on MaSa is my opinion, but it should be an extremely fun and close series. 

I bet on MaSa +117.

Hydra: -152 , -1.5 @ +138

Neeb: +118 , +1.5 @ -192

We didn’t have to wait long to see a rematch of the Dreamhack Austin finalists. In that match Hydra won 4-2. Neeb is a smart player, and a rising star, so I don’t think he will make the same mistakes he did last week. When you are as elite as both of these players, getting two victories in a row is quite an accomplishment, and honestly I think the rematch will benefit Neeb more than Hydra. 

I bet on Neeb +118.

Cham: -118  , -1.5 @ +159

Jim: -108 , +1.5 @ -227

No one was respecting Jim coming into this tournament but he took out one the WCS circuit leaders in round one. Cham is a good NA Zerg, but I think the crazy aggressive style Jim is used to seeing in his home region will lead him to have a definitive advantage early game. Additionally these players recently played in Leifeng Cup, and Jim won the series 2-0. I think Jim should be favored.

I bet on Jim -108

[capc1ty-blog]

WCS SPRING CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 1 Preview

16 games, much to do! Don’t have time to wait on Bovada to put up odds, so here is the current numbers on betcoin.ag. First thing that jumps off the page is the lack of “close” match-ups. Round one features numerous heavy favorites. 

Lets look at the odds: 

Polt: -800

Strange: +450

*betcoin doesn’t have this up for some reason, I used bet365 numbers.

Most people view this as a first round by for Polt. I agree, he is the man that shines when the lights are the brightest, he’s Edward Cullin, invincible, and shiny. 

uThermal: -303, -1.5 @ -133

iAsonu: +226, +1.5 @ -103  

I would say uThermal’s price is a bit steep, iA is no pushover. However the Dutchman has played in more than a few online cups vs aggressive Chinese Zergs over the past few months so iA shouldn’t be able to surprise him. Overall ZvT is the Chinese player’s best matchup, but I fear it won’t be enough. I think iA takes a game, and if its the first one the scales could be tipped, but in the end I’m confident we will get to see a spectacular TvT featuring uThermal vs Polt in round 2. 

Happy: -303, -1.5 @ -139

Has: +226, +1.5 @ +101

These odds puzzle me a bit. Happy is an excellent macro oriented Terran, but Has is the epitome of a wild card. Exceptional macro doesn’t necessarily help you if you are getting rushed at the 4 minute mark. Obviously Has’ cat is out of the bag by now, but still its not like you can replicate his style until you are in the game with him, he is just too weird. I’d expect this one to be much closer to a pick’em and for that reason I give the more experienced offline and WCS player, Has a real shot to perform as an underdog. Sure he is traveling across the world, but at this point he is used to it. 

I bet Has +226

Elazer: -400 , -1.5 @ -179

XY: +286 , +1.5 @ +128

A Chinese Terran making an appearance at a major offline event? What a novelty. Joking aside, when there has been a Chinese Terran at a major event over the past few years, theres a good chance its been XY. Another interesting story line about this match up is that XY is 10 years older than Elazer, he could’ve been playing Brood War when Elazer was in diapers. Still though, he has a tough task ahead of him and I expect Elazer to perform in front of the European crowd. 

Nerchio: -200 , -1.5 @ -123

VortiX: +154 , +1.5 @ -112

Vortix is a cheeky boy. He can and has beat pretty much everyone in Europe at some point or another, but he kind of seems overlooked by non-EU fans after his year long hiatus in 2015. Nerchio is a beast, and its impossible to talk about the top non-Koreans without having him on your short list. These two played in Dreamhack Austin Qualifiers and VortiX took the series 2-1. Nerchio will have revenge on his mind, but I think name recognition is weighing heavily in these numbers. Since this is a 5 game series, I expect Nerchio’s superior ZvZ to prevail, but Vortix covering +1.5 is appealing, this is his first real appearance on the world’s stage in LotV, I don’t think he will go down easy, and he will have a chip on his shoulder after having to drop out of the WCS Winter Championship. 

I bet VortiX +1.5 -112

Scarlett: -143 , -1.5 @ +147

FireCake: +112 , +1.5 @ -208

Scarlett has had a hell of a week. A few days ago she was 1 game away from qualifying for GSL Code, and the day after she again fell one game short of qualifying for SSL Challenge. She was eliminated in both instances by top ten Korean Terrans. She is a top 30 KR GM, you can bet she has taken a few games from truly elite Zerg’s in the process. Overall her ZvZ should be on a different plane than the frenchman (who is weakest in ZvZ btw). If its not already obvious, I heavily favor Scarlett, and I think she is cheap anywhere below -175. The counter argument is that the Frenchman is playing at home and she is travelling across the world, but still I believe she will be out for blood and this advantage won’t be enough. 

I bet Scarlett -143

Neeb: -244 , -1.5 @ -125

Lilbow: +185 , +1.5 @ -111

How times have changed. Lilbow was the best non-Korean in the world a year ago and Neeb was a 17 year old with potential. Now Neeb is the best American, and one of the most feared players in NA. He is getting more and more comfortable on stage, as evidenced by his 2nd place finish at Dreamhack Austin last week. Both players are super solid at PvP but overall Neeb seems to be more in a groove. I think his price is high outright but -1.5 seems alright but not a must play. Lilbow will have a definite home field advantage, I think the fact these odds are still steep even with Lilbow being home is quite a testament to Neeb’s ability and the respect he has earned. 

Hydra: -769 , -1.5 @ -313

Bails: +478 , +1.5 @ +210

Two NA all stars forced to travel across the Atlantic and play, odd draw to say the least. They have played twice professionally, and Hydra is 2-0. He just won a championship, Bail’s NA accomplishments do not hold much water on this stage. Obviously Hydra is super steep so I don’t recommend the risk, but I think you’d be crazy to back Bails as well. 

ShowTime: -278 , -1.5 @ -132

SortOf: +206 , +1.5 @ -105

ShowTime is the stronger player, no one will argue otherwise. SortOf’s ZvP is spotty at best over the past few weeks and he is already hanging his head about his draw on Twitter. The number that is most attractive to me is ShowTime -1.5.

I bet ShowTime -1.5 @ -132

Snute: -278 , -1.5 @ -137

Guru: +206 , +1.5 @ +206

Europe’s favorite Zerg vs the other other Zerg from Poland. These guys have played 5 times this year, and Guru is leading the series 3-2 (winning the last three in a row). All of these matches have been on much smaller stages but Snute is an emotional player, this may be weighing on his conscience. I think Snute is right to be favored but +206 is appealing... but not quite appealing enough. 

Huk: -323 , -1.5 @ -145

Iaguz: +235 , +1.5 @ +105

This number really jumped off the page at me. I think HuK is great, but is he really worthy of being greater than a 3 to 1 favorite vs Iaguz? I don’t think so, so I like Iaguz as a pure value play. HuK’s PvT isn’t special, SEA isn’t very weak for Protoss players, but Iaguz is KR GM, he definitely has seen guys on or better than Huk’s level. I like the dog here, outright. 

I bet Iaguz +235. 

MaSa: -175 , -1.5 @ +121

puCK: +136 , +1.5 @ -169

Another match up between NA warriors. This is both players’ weakest match up so this could be a bit of unique, if not sloppy series. They have played each other 3 times this year, puCK leads 2-1. MaSa has a lot of hype right now considering he just proved he is more than just an online cup stud by placing 3/4 at Dreamhack Austin. puCK has been around the block and traveled the world playing Starcraft. He seems to do best when no one expects much from him. That said his Stalker/Disruptor heavy style seems to have been figured out and I favor MaSa. 

Bunny: -256 , -1.5 @ -116

PtitDrogo: +195 , +1.5 @ -119

This was another line that puzzled me. Bunny was possibly the best European Terran last year, but its 2016 and LotV and Bunny is yet to achieve a major result. Drogo won the first Dreamhack of the year and is playing in front of a home crowd. I see him winning here, or at least making it a good series. Value is on him as a dog. 

I bet PtitDrogo +195.

Harstem: -286 , -1.5 @ -133

Jim: +216 , +1.5 @ -103

This should be a fun one, these guys haven’t played before and come from vastly different regions. They are both good at PvP but thats about as much info I can glean from this situation. Jim has been around the WCS a few years now, but so has Harstem so stage experience won’t necessarily be too much of a factor. My gut says Harstem looks pricey, but I don’t have enough conviction to pull the trigger. 

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

TFW you only put up one Proleague match and there is 2 :|

We will know everything after tonight. Samsung will be watching MVP, but regardless they need to win tonight to control their destiny. Jin Air has a firm grip on 1st place that no one will touch, but KT can still move to 2nd place with a victory tonight.

As a whole these matches feature much more “elite talent” than the first game. Lets look at the odds on Bovada Right now:

KT Rolster: -195, -1.5 @ +135

Samsung Galaxy: +155, +1.5 @ -175

Great great games and really tough to call. Favor goes to the deeper team, KT but at the same time I think MVP’s performance will have an affect on Samsung’s psyche so I don’t want to look at a team score quite yet. 

Stats (P #3, O #7): -165

Reality (T #4, O #9): +125 The elite Terran no one talks about vs the top 2 SSL Protoss no one talks about. Historically TvP is Reality’s worst match up, but in his last three outings vs the race he’s been sharp.The Terran’s sharpness is not limited to just TvP either, he is 16-1 in his last 17 matches, and 23-2 in his last 25. That isn’t to say Stats isn’t a beast in his own right who is 13-4 in his last 17 games. I honestly think this line is a bit off and it shoudl be a -120 vs -110 situation. For that reason I see value on Reality, but not quite enough to take it, at least not yet. 

Dear (P #2 O #5): -125

TY (T #2, O #6): -105

Jesus the betting public have come around on Dear, they agree with me, he is a world class talent considering he is favored vs the GSL S1 runner up. TY is special so for him to be a dog is pretty astounding. Outside of the superlatives though, TY has been weak vs top tier protoss. He lost to his teammates Stats and Zest in his last two TvPs. In his last 5 games in this match up he is 2-3, the additional loss from Trap, and the victories vs Showtime and Billowy. I think Dear will do his homework and take this one for his team who will likely need it. 

Leenock (Z #7): -155

BrAvO: +120

Honestly anyone who tells you they have a good handle on this one doesn’t watch enough BrAvO or Leenock games. BrAvO wins if he can execute his meticulously planned strategy, Leenock wins when he is able to execute a cheese or strong timing. This one comes down to who did their homework (I give an edge to the Samsung man in that regard). That said I don’t have a strong opinion either way outside I think Leenock is much scarier of an opponent. 

Zest (P #1, O #1): -180

Solar (Z #4) : +140

Solar seemingly has his swag back, he has won 9 of his last 10 games, and his last 7 ZvPs in a row. Zest is Zest though. I love Solar, and the entire Zerg Race needs him to stay hot, but regardless it would take news of Zest taking shots before the match for me to say he is going to lose. Not saying its out of this world, and in fact some sites are showing a bunch of Solar money. My opinion is I need to go home with the one who brought me, and that one is Zest.

KT ACE: -150

SAMSUNG ACE: +115

Dear vs....? Need to see how he does vs TY before jumping to any conclusions. 

The Bets

Zest -159 over Solar. Grabbed it on another site. Zest below -170 vs just about anyone seems like a steal.

Watch Reality vs Stats and TY vs Dear #s! 

GLHF

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Season 2- Judgement Day

Tonight we get to see MVP vs Afreeca Freecs. Perhaps the surprise of the season is the fact that tonight’s match has playoff implications for MVP, but not for the Freecs. Drama will be abundant considering every Freec’s player has beaten their MVP counterpart when they last played. I love that as motivation too, if MVP can’t get revenge for their Freec losses, they dont deserve to be in the SPL Round 2 Playoffs. 

Lets gets started by looking at tonight’s matches, and current odds on Bovada.

Afreeca Freecs: -115, +1.5 @ -275

MVP: -115, -1.5 @ +200

Freecs opened as a favorite, and they were as high as -170 around 2 hours ago. I think that a pick is a much better number for this series. Freecs haven’t won a match yet this round, and MVP has proven to be much better than anyone realized. Freecs are more powerful on paper if you look at life time achievements, but recently MVP has had a few players surging. I think MVP is taking this more seriously and I expect them to win. 

Curious: -115

DeParture (Z #10): -115

This will be an extremely interesting match, mainly because Curious has been garbage for the better part of 6 weeks. He doesn’t exactly get to take on easy opponents because his team relies on his experience, but still the slide has been too big to downplay. In Curious’ last 10 matches he is 2-8. He is 1-3 in ZvZ. That said, his losses were too Dark, Losira, and Solar. His victory was against...DeParture. Curious has been mostly an offline player in 2016, Departure on the other hand is grinding in numerous online cups. Curious is regularly playing 1-2 matches a week, DeParture is averaging 1-2 a day  over the past few weeks. I think regular competition makes DeParture the more confident player, and I slightly favor him. 

Super (P #8): -135

GuMiho (T #6): +105

Super is a guy I’ve been advocating for for weeks. He has slipped a little bit since the latter half of last month, but I believe he remains to be undervalued. GuMiho is a guy who I can’t give enough praise too. He plays more matches than anyone else, period. He also manages to bring out one of a kind strats and confound some of the best players in the world. GuMiho is growing into MVP’s ACE, and he couldn’t be more excited about this burden. I think he is going to come into tonight laser focused with a build Super has never seen before, and I think he will win as an underdog. In March Super defeated GuMiho when he was in the height of his form, I think tonight will tell a different story. 

Patience: -130

Ryung (T #8): +100

Patience was one of the better stories early in 2016, but his surprise form came to a screeching halt after he was defeated by Stats in SSL Round of 4. Conversely, every opponent must take Ryung seriously these days. He is aggressive and decisive and will make you pay if you leave an opening. The two played 3 days ago in the online Leifeng cup playoffs. Patience won the series 2-1. Overall both players are active onine, and have squared off a total of 6 times in 2016, the series record is 3-3, and the map score is an ultra tight 9-11 edge going to Ryung. I give Ryung a slight edge tonight too.

Bomber: -155

Forte: +120

You guessed it, the last time these guys played the Afreeca guy won. Bomber has lost his last 3 Proleague Matches. Forte is 0-4 overall in proleague. I definitely think Forte could surprise with a cute build, but i think Bomber will overwhelm him with a powerful timing attack and win. That said Im not even sure we get here, I really like the MVP guys in the three matches ahead of this one. 

Afreeca ACE: -150

MVP ACE: +115

If we get here, I assume it will feature MVP seeking revenge :).

The Bets

MVP over Afreeca +130. I got this early because i think a lot of matches feature the wrong player favored. The current odds are much closer to what this should’ve opened at.

GuMiho over Super +110. Got it early, I think GuMiho will be favored by the time this one starts. (Some books have the favorite flipped already). 

Ryung over Patience +105. Ryung is way scarier to me right now than Patience (Like last match, some books have the favorite flipped already).

MVP -1.5 @ +200. If Departure wins I think MVP 3-0s... If not we are on for an ace match.. 

Sorry for typos, couldn’t spend too much time on editing this one... 

[capc1ty-blog]

SPL REVIEW + PREVIEW

Yesterday featured some great, and straight up weird games. Two giants fell on SKT, and the big 3 at KT performed. Lets look at what we learned from each game. 

Match 1

Samsung beat SKT 3-0. Quite an upset, but these things happen when teams don’t put forward their strongest lineups, like SKT opted to do last night. 

Reality defeated Classic. Everyone loves Classic and people continue to undervalue Reality. I firmly believe he is a top 3 Kespa Terran right now, and I don’t see INnoVation supplanting him until he can beat Protoss. Classic still was feisty last night, and I think this game was invaluable experience going into SSL and GSL qualifiers. It was an intense and odd match that you just can’t replicate in practice matches.

Dear defeated MyuNgSiK. It was a matter of seconds but Dear managed to get an observer out just in time, without it he would’ve lost to DTs. Dear knew MyuNgSiK would try something like this so he was quite prepared, still it was a razor thin edge. MyuNg always has a shot. Well played by Dear.

Solar defeated Dark. Solar has his swag back? Really well played. He kept Dark on the back foot and steamrolled him. Writing that really doesn’t feel right...

Match 2

KT beat MVP 3-1. The KT team was playing with hangovers after celebrating Zest’s GSL victory the night before, but that didn’t slow down their top three players in securing this victory. 

TY defeated DeParture. TY had a crafty build that was full of trickery and harass. He has been throw the flames of LotV, that cant be said about DeParture. Experience and skill prevailed.

GuMiho defeated jjakji. Looks like KT wanted to get jjakji some game experience vs MVP’s best player. They were confident their big three could win this so why not let a guy get some game reps vs a top flight terran? That said GuMiho didn’t scout two rax proxy reaper, but still managed to win. If jjakji’s micro was a bit better he could’ve taken this. That said GuMiho’s defense was great and he punished his opponent’s aggression. 

Zest defeated Ryung. Zest is best, Ryung is good. Simply being good is not enough to take down the force of nature that is Zest. Zest was two steps ahead the whole game and steam rolled him.

Stats defeated Blaze. Stats would be an ace player on many teams. Blaze is better than given credit for but Stats is about 2 tiers superior. This was evidenced by the fact he was ahead nearly the entire game, victory was merely the next link in the chain of events Stats created. 

Tonight’s Match

Only one series tonight, CJ vs Jin Air. Lets look at current odds.

CJ Entus: -120, -1.5 @ +185

Jin Air Greenwings: -110, +1.5 @ -250

JIn Air is not using their strongest lineup tonight, perhaps in an effort to prepare more players for duty in the playoffs, or maybe just to give a rest to some of the guys who have carried them to a perfect 5-0 record in this round of Proleague. CJ needs an impressive showing to have any shot at making the playoffs so they have enlisted their strongest players.

herO (P #4): -230

Creator: +175

Creator is 1-1 in Proleague, his last effort was an underdog victory vs Losira. herO has played better in Proleague than in individual leagues in 2016. He has an impressive Proleague PvP record of 5-0, beating the likes of Dear x2, sOs, seed, and Stats. Simply put herO should win this one, if anything else happens it will be a complete surprise. I expect this number to skew more and more towards herO the later it goes so grab now if you like him. 

ByuL (Z #5): -200

Hyun: +175

Hyun is the newest member of Jin Air. He is an older player and extremely experienced. That said ByuL has been around the block a time or two. Although ByuL’s recent results have been inconsistent at best he is still a major threat. Historically ZvZ is ByuL’s worst match up, and it is Hyun’s strongest. My guess is Hyun is really looking forward to this, its his firs big offline match in awhile so he has plenty to prove. That said ByuL will have a bit of chip on his shoulder too, he has underperformed on the year, and has a lifetime record of 0-3 vs Hyun. I think ByuL wins because of Hyun being rusty in the booth. 

Maru (T #1, O #2): -285

Bunny: +210

Maru is without a doubt the #2 player in the world outside of Zest. He is a TvT wizard and is better at multitasking than anyone on the planet. Bunny made the GSL round of 16, but he is more of a sniper right now, so multi-game series definitely play up his weaknesses. I think Maru wins but if the odds go much higher Bunny is worth taking a flyer on. CJ is obviously very confident in his TvT considering they’ve given him a murderers row of T opponents, and he managed to beat TY a few weeks ago in Proleague. 

RagnaroK: +120

Cure (T #7): -155

Cure is an elite TvZ player, but vs Terran is RagnaroK’s weakest match up. I think Cure has the offline LotV experience and knowledge of the match up to win this easily. This price seems low. 

CJ ACE: +100

JAG ACE: -130

If we get here, I think you gotta take Jin Air considering they probably roll out Maru. 

The Bets

Cure -155 vs RagnaroK. See above, I like where Cure is as a player much more than RagnaroK.

Thats it for now, will review odds later. Will see how high Bunny goes...

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

KR Power Rankings, GSL Review, SPL Preview. 5.1.2016

My attention has been elsewhere over the past week so I haven’t been able to write quite as much as I’d like to. Good thing last week was relatively slow regarding the big 3 Korean tournaments. Without further ado, here are my updated power rankings... Cliffs: Not too much change here.

POWER RANKINGS

TERRAN

Extremely Deep, the top 8 are scary for any opponent. 

Maru 

TY - He took twice as many maps from Zest as all other T combined.

ByuN

Reality

INnoVation

GuMiho

Cure

Ryung (Up 1) - Still looking great in Proleague

Dream (Down 1) - TY broke him?

KeeN (Unranked) - Online warrior

PROTOSS

May have passed up Terran as the deepest race. 

Zest - Come on

Dear

Stats

herO

Classic (Up 3) - The beast has risen? 

sOs (Down 1)

Trap 

Super (Down 2) - Still better than anyone else thinks he is.

Blaze - Underrated by most

MyuNgSiK 

ZERG

Still the most inconsistent race after a strong start to 2016. Kind of a mess after the top 4.

Dark - Lost to Maru but still tops Zerg

Rogue 

soO

Solar

ByuL

Soulkey

Leenock (Up 3)

TRUE (Unranked) Been doing it well offline

Losira (Unranked) 

DeParture (Unranked)

OVERALL

Some shuffling

Zest - Now without question, the best

Maru (Up 1) - Beat Dark, and is undefeated in SPL 

Dark (Down 1)

Rogue (Up 1) - So sharp lately

Dear (Down 1) - I think he’s plateaued for now, still great

TY 

Stats

Byun

Reality

soO (Unranked) - Done enough replace INno on this list. 

GSL Code S Final Review

ZEST IS  BEST

It was a great final featuring some truly amazing games. This series was super close, much more neck and neck than the 4-2 result implicated. TY should be proud, now he’s been in a final, here is to many more.

PROLEAGUE 5.2.2016 Preview

Not the strongest lineups we’ve seen this year, but still some really interesting games and a chance to see some guys who aren’t often called. As always I’ll look at the current Bovada odds and give some analysis.

Match 1

SK Telecom T1: -150, -1.5 @ +190

Samsung Galaxy: +115, +1.5 @ -260

SKT is the deepest team in SPL, but they have chosen not to use their strongest lineup tonight, which is crazy considering this still features Dark and Classic. This feels like an ACE match series, and it will be quite interesting if we get there considering Samsung has Dear who is capable of beating anyone on SKT’s roster. 

Classic (P #5): -140

Reality (T #4 O #4): +110

Classic is surging, he had two impressive PvP results in his last two proleague outings. Reality is on a roll as well. In the past two months Reality has played 7 Protoss, with a record of 5-2. Classic has played 4 Terrans on the year and is 3-1. Historically PvT is arguably Classic’s best match-up, whereas Reality struggles vs Protoss historically. This should be a great game. It is being played on King Sejong Station so the quirk’s of the map add to the intrigue. I think Reality is the value play here. 

Dear (P #2, O #5): -185

MyuNgSiK (P #10): +145

Dear is an amazing PvP player, however in his last 5 mirror match-ups he is 2-3. We haven’t seen MyuNgSiK in nearly a month and his sample vs PvP this year is relatively small and ancient with regard to the way LotV meta has been changing. MyuNgSiK is not the greatest multitasker, he wins because he throws the most exotic varieties of cheese at his opponents and is relentless with his pressure. Dear has been known to get impatient vs players he considers below his talent level. That is a recipe for upset. Although these players haven’t played this year, they played twice in GSL preseason in December. Dear took the first series 2-1, then MyuNg took the second 3-0. I think this is a fun series that will come down to Dear’s mindset. I favor Dear but may still take a flyer on MyuNgSiK. 

Dark (Z #1, O #3): -165

Solar (Z #4): +125

Solar has excellent ZvZ, Dark has the best in the world. I think Dark wins and this is a cheap price. 

Impact: -115

BrAvO: -115

Impact is another player we haven’t seen much of in 2016. In fact his lack of games has lead aligulac to denote his profile as “inactive.” The two games Impact has played were ZvZs against Solar and Rogue. He lost both but not really surprising considering they are top 5 Zergs. BrAvO is a sniper who has played 2 Zerg in Proleague this year. He lost to soO, but then beat ByuL by abusing the quirks of King Sejong Station. Impact and BrAvO met in GSL qualifiers in December, the Zerg player took the series 2-0. This is Impact’s first pro game vs a Terran in 2016. I don’t love either side here but side with BrAvO due to LotV experience.

SKT ACE: -155

Samsung ACE: +120

I hope we get her, will be super fun no matter who they pick. Dark vs Dear would be amazing. 

Match 2

Overall more interesting match ups than the first match, in my opinion.

KT Rolster: -325, -1.5 @ -115

MVP: +230, +1.5 @ -115

Looking at these lineups I simply do not see a way for MVP to get the upset. That said I think an ace match has a decent probability.

TY (T #2, O #6): -225

DeParture (Z #10): +170

This game is taking place on the monster of a map known as Frost. Spawning positions will play a big part in this one. I think TY will have the right idea on how to beat DeParture here, but the question is how much practicing has he been doing? He just had a huge TvP yesterday. Additionally TY has shown some weakness vs Z on the year. he lost to foreigners iAsonu and Snute, and Koreans ByuL and Dark in the past two months. In that same time frame TY beat Chinese player Jieshi, and also beat DeParture 2-0 in Code S. DeParture’s match history vs Terran isn’t exactly inspiring either. I think this match is closer than the odds indicate so I think DeParture may be  a good value play. 

jjakji: +145

GuMiho (T #6): -185

Joanie loves jjakji!. The KT Terran is another player that aligulac has marked as inactive. Jjakji hasn’t played in 2months, and his last outing was a Proleague loss to Curious. ON the year he has played one TvT, it was a 2-0 victory over Ryung. GuMiho has already played enough games in 2016 to provide experience for 4 players. I think this is GuMiho all the way. Sure the lack of past games will give jjakji the element of surprise, but GuMiho has played so much he has seen everything. I like GuMiho here. 

Zest (P #1, O #1): -325

Ryung (T #8): +230

Zest is the best player in the world. I love teh way Ryung is developing and he has been a solid proleague player lately. I just don’t think he will have what it takes to stop Zest who just spent a week preparing for a GSL final vs an elite Terran player. 

Stats (P #3, O #7): -230

Blaze (P #9): +175

I’m a big Blaze fan, but I don’t think he will have what it takes to beat Stats. Stats has seen some stuff this year and he was an SSL finalist. Both players have been awesome vs Protoss in 2016. Stat’s record is 6-1, Blaze is 8-1 (3-1 vs Koreans, loss coming from Stats in SPL). Think Stats takes this one.

KT ACE: -195

MVP ACE: +155

Would love to see who comes out. Zest/TY/Stats vs GuMiho? 

The Bets

Reality +120 vs Classic. Reality is playing at an elite level. Getting plus money vs a guy who hasn’t played Terran lately is a good spot. 

Dark -154 vs Solar. Dark is the best ZvZ player in the world. I know Solar really wants this to get revenge for the SSL round of 3, but I don’t think he has enough.

Parlay: Zest/Stats/KT Rolster +152. Confident in both players and KT as a team. 

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

GSL Season 1 Championship

GSL Season One is finally coming to its conclusion. The match features two of the most dominant players in Starcraft. If their level of skill wasn’t intriguing enough, they are also teammates on KT Rolster. Lets take a look at the current odds on Bovada.

Zest: -250, -1.5 @ -130

TY: +170, +1.5 @ -110

The Numbers, Or 35,000 reasons why Zest is the best Starcraft player in the world. 

Zest has played 29 professional matches in 2016, his record is 24-5.

His map score is 41-9.

 Almost half of his matches have been against Terran. His PvT record is a perfect 12-0. 

His map score vs Terran is 22-1. (95.65%)

The Terrans Zest has beaten are: Maru, BrAvO, Bomber, TaeJa, Cure, Journey, aLive and GuMiho. 

Zest’s 2016 GSL Season 1 record is 6-0.

Zest’s GSL map Score is 15-1.

TY is 22-11 on the year

TY map score since Jan 1 is 41-18 (Same amount of wins, twice as many losses as Zest). 

TY is 10-3 vs Protoss

TY’s Map score vs Protoss is 18-9

Vs Korean Protoss TY is 7-2

Vs Korean Protoss TY’s map score is 12-5

TY has beaten Patience, Trap, Super, MyuNgSiK, and Billowy

TY has lost to Dear and Trap.

TY’s GSL Record is 6-1

TY’s GSL Map score is 15-3.

TY is 2-0 vs Zest all time. (Proleague in 2013, SSL ro8 S3 2015)

Both of these players have looked spectacular in this match up, and both have been playing their best SC2 in GSL. TY would likely be the favorite vs any other Protoss in the world, but to be honest Zest’s price still seems a bit cheap. I’ve had Zest as my #1 overall player since I first started doing power rankings a few months ago. TY is my #2 overall Terran so I’m a little concerned by the fact I’m having trouble making a case for him to pull off the upset tonight. Nothing should be obvious in sports betting... A big reason I love Zest tonight is because he had no trouble dealing with Maru in the 4 maps they played, the Terran didn’t get a single a victory. TY plays a similar style to Maru, albeit he is slightly less effective overall. 

The Bets

Chalk, Juice, Square = the adjectives that will describe my 3 wagers tonight....

Zest ML -227

Zest -1.5 -119

Zest -2.5 +195

Zest is best

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Preview - Turbo Edition. 4.26.2016

No real time today to do full write ups on each match. Here are odds on bovada and brief analysis. 

Match 1

Samsung Galaxy: -170, -1.5 @ +200

MVP: +130, +1.5 @ -275

These lineup choices are interesting and I think MVP has a real shot here. If the odds were above 150 I’d take them because I really think this match comes down to the ACE (Guessing Dear vs Gumiho.).

Journey: +125

GuMiho (Terran #6): -165

Journey is a good TvT player but I expected GuMiho to be a nearly 2 to 1 favorite here. They have played 8 times, GuMiho leads the series 6-2 (winning last 6 in a row).  I think GuMiho takes care of Journey once again.

Dear (Protoss #2, Overall #4): -310

Seed: +225

Dear was in GSL round of 4, Seed is having trouble making it out of hte first round of online tourneys. You can’t really take seed with confidence no matter how you swing it. 

BrAvO: +110

Ryung (Terran #9): -140

Ryung has been surging, BrAvO was off until recently. That said BrAvO is a TvT specialist. BrAvO tore aLive aprt on King Sejong Station last week. I like BrAvO and the value. 

Armani (Zerg #8): -140

Blaze (Protoss #9): +110

Armani is only ranked because he has been solid in online tourney’s. Blaze has been decent online and off. Protoss is much deeper than Zerg Right now. I like Blaze to win this one, great value. 

Samsung ACE: -190

MVP ACE: -150

I think Dear beats anyone MVP sends out. 

Match 2

KT Rolster: -600, -1.5 @ -185

Afreeca Freecs: +373, +1.5 @ +145

Lineups look like Freecs are in big trouble. But this is Proleague, weirder things have happened. 

TY (Terran #2, Overall #6): -350

Billowy: +250

Billowy has been playing mostly foreigners since late February. TY plays top ten opponents every week. That said he is susceptible to overlooking opponents. Additionally he faces off against his teammate Zest in the GSL final, I don’t think he will want to show anything that Zest hasn’t already seen him do. That said, vanilla TY >>> the best flavor of Billowy. Don’t want to bet this one unless its a hail mary on BIllowy, but prob won’t. 

Zest (Protoss #1, Overall #1): -300

Patience: +220

Zest is pretty pretty good at PvP, remember that one time he 4-0′d the #2 Protoss in the world in the GSL round of 4? Me too, it was last week. Zest’s career winrate vs P is nearly 70%, Patience is around 60. Patience got rolled by Zest’s opponent Stats in the SSL round of 4. This is a Zest match if I’ve ever seen one. 

Leenock (Zerg #10) : -150

Super (Protoss #6): +115

I really don’t get it, still no respect for Super by the books.Super handled last night as a dog *well he closed as the favorite. Leenock is a sniper, so he is always a threat, but his results have been more bad than good on the year. I like Super as a dog, again. 

Stats (Protoss #3, Overall #7): -225

aLive: +170

Rematch of a proleague match last month in which Stats won. I think the same thing happens. Stats is a great player right now, aLive has lost some mojo, dropping his last 5 matches n a row. 

KT ACE: -195

Freecs ACE: +155

This should be a 3-1 victory for KT, so I don’t see us getting here. If we do KT has three aces that are extremely frightening.

The Bets

Blaze +115 vs Armani. Locked in yesterday, comes down to Super being the better player right now.

Super +110 vs Leenock. Super played Z yesterday so he should be well schooled in the match up. Also just better overall than Leenock right now. 

BrAvO +110 vs Ryung. Like Ryung but BrAvO has apparently turned a corner. He is extremely calculated in Proleague, Ryung is more of “smash my army into yours until I win” type player. On King Sejong BrAvO will abuse the map and frustrate Ryung. I like the Samsung Captain as a dog here. 

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Preview 4.25.16

Another ridiculously awesome set of games this week. As always, Bovada Odds + Analysis.

Match 1

CJ Entus: -190, -1.5 @ +155

Afreeca Feecs: +150, +1.5 @ -195

CJ almost took down SKT last week, and Afreeca is currently in last place with an 0-3 Proleague record. Still, Not like CJ is scaring anyone, they are in second to last place This should be quite an interesting match up because it features two matches of guys who have under-performed lately, and two matches of guys who have surged a bit as of late. 

herO (Protoss #4): -225

Curious (Unranked): +170

Legacy of the Void has not been an easy transition for herO. HIs results have been all over the board. He can beat guys like Dear or sOs or Byun, then lose to the likes of Leenock and Ryung. Curious on the other hand learned LotV very quickly, it was very obvious he put in time early and often. Then the rest of the field caught up. Curious Made it to the round of 16 in GSL, but he lost both matches he played. He has lost his last 5 matches and only won 3 of his last 10. He has played 4 ZvPs since Jan 1, beating Stork and Trap, losing to Stats and Classic. I think Curious needs to go back to the drawing board, and its been 10 days since his last pro match, but my opinion is this match is herO or bust. There isn’t information available that could lead you to confidentally pick Curious in this upset. 

ByuL (Zerg #4): -170

Patience (Unranked): +130

Like Curious, Patience learned LotV quickly. He made a surprise run to the SSL round of 4, then was quickly picked up by the Freecs, leaving Dead Pixels. You’d think this move would only be good for patience, but since his SSL run Patience is 1-6. He has lost to Koreans and foreigners alike, his one win was vs Symbol. In this time frame he has lost to korean Zerg’s soO and Soulkey, who are much closer to ByuL’s level than Symbol, additionally Patience lost to the German Zerg Lambo 0-3 in an online qualifier. ByuL has been up and down all year, his record is 12-10 on the year. I think ByuL will win this one because Patience can’t have much confidence right now, unless of course he was hiding strats in that embarassing loss to Lambo. 

Bunny (Unranked): +105

Bomber (Terran #10): -135

Both of these guys have done better than anyone expected this year. Bunny made the GSL round of 16, but his Proleague record is 1-5. Bomber is 3-2 in Proleague with wins vs Forte, Cure, and Dark, and losses to Reality and Stats. I trust Bomber’s TvT much more than Bunny right now, even though Bunny has played monsters in Maru, INnoVation, TY (his lone SPL victory), and Reality. Both these guys love pulling out snipe builds so this game has the chance to get weird. That said the fact that they employ different strats week to week may force them to use standard styles because the samples are all over the board. 

RagnaroK (Unranked): -105

Super (Protoss #6): -125

Super is one of the most underrated Protoss players in Korea. RagnaroK has a strong legacy but has not had many impressive results in LotV. The only Protoss Ragnarok has beat on the year is Hurricane, a much weaker player than the version of Super we have seen this year. Super is historically not the greatest PvZ player, but I think his overall strength right now will carry him through. Super has played one Proleague game vs Z this year, and it was a win vs Rogue. Additionally in January the two players met in Code A, Super took the match 3-1. 

CJ ACE: -210

Afreeca Freecs: +165

Call me crazy but if we make it to this match, value might be on the Freec’s ace. I think herO is the default CJ ace, and Freecs have a bunch of tricky players. I could see them pulling an upset with a number of guys. 

Match 2

The two best teams in Proleague square off. Strap in for this one. Jin Air is currently in first place, I do not think this will set well with SKT.

SK Telecom T1: -170, -1.5 +140

Jin Air Green Wings: +130, +1.5 -180

SKT is the deepest team, but INnoVation is down, and MyuNgSiK has disappeared. JIn air has a ton of star power, if sOs get it together I think they have a strong case for being the overall #1 team on paper. 

Dark (Zerg #1, Overall #2): -130

Maru (Terran #1, Overall #3): +100

Maru is an amazing player, but lets not act like his shortcomings aren’t known. He has trouble with elite Zerg. Dark is the best Zerg in the world. Maru does have a great practice partner in Rogue, but Dark recently took care of TY in a real game. I think Dark continues his streak. He was looking forward to this game, my guess Maru has a bit more nerves. Either way this one will be a treat to watch. 

Classic (Protoss #7): -120

sOs (Protoss #5): -110

We last saw Classic defeating Zest in Proleague, which is an outstanding accomplishment. sOs has been up and down, and has not beat an elite Protoss on a year. Zest played a very standard style vs Classic because he did not want to show anything to Dear, it worked. If you think sOs will roll out something vanilla you are not familiar with the player. I side with sOs here, but I admit Classic getting some confidence could be huge. Classic also gets to practice with the king of Protoss cheese, MyuNgSiK so I expect his early game defense to be solid. 

soO (Zerg #3) : -155

Rogue (Zerg #2, Overall #5): +120

Rogue has looked very strong on the year, soO has been a bit weak in individual leagues but extremely strong in Proleague. Rogue is 4-0 vs Korean Zerg on the year. soO is a ZvZ specialist with a perfect 6-0 record vs Zerg on the year, and he has beaten more impressive Zerg foes than Rogue. On a night of amazing matches, this should be one of the best. I think soO gets an edge on paper, but if Rogue gets up much higher I see that as value. 

Dream (Terran #8): -130

Trap (Protoss #7): +100

Dream had a brief run where he looked extremely strong, making it to the GSL round of 8. In that match he lost to TY, then lost to RagnaroK in Proleague last week. Historically Dream is extremely strong vs Protoss, and its his best match up. He is 4-1 in TvP on the year, beating Patience, Seed, herO, and Dear, his loss was herO getting revenge. Trap is 3-3 vs Terran when playing offline. Trap lost to TY twice, then beat Taeja, then lost to Taeja, then beat Reality and TY. Obviously INno is not SKT’s answer to TvP so this is them offering Dream the chance to definitively take that role. Trap is will have a ton of confidence in the match up after beating Reality and TY in his most recent bouts. Dreams last two matches were unspectacular. This one should be extremely close. At a pick em I like Dream, but if there is +110 or more on Trap that is value in my book. 

SKT ACE: -150

JAG ACE: +115

Both teams have scores of aces, and they are all playing, so we will need to watch the first three matches play out before making a definitive claim on these odds.

The Bets 

Super -115 vs Ragnarok. Took this one early. The market is undervaluing Super in my book. I think he is a solid side to take anywhere below -130.

Dark -115 vs Maru. Another bet I took early. As mentioned above, Zerg is Maru’s kryptonite. Obviously Maru is some sort of SC2 wizard so I do not expect this one to be easy for Dark. 

Bomber -137 vs Bunny. I really believe in Bomber as an upper echelon Proleague Terran. Bunny has had baptism by fire with poor results. This game should be weird and Bomber is the side I want. 

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

Updated KR Power Rankings 4.24.2016

Terran:

Top to bottom the scariest group. 

Maru

TY

ByuN (Up 1)

Reality (Up 1)

INnoVation (Down 2)

GuMiho (Up 1)

Cure (Up 1)

Dream (down 2)

Ryung (Up 1)

Bomber (Unranked) 

Protoss:

Best resume among the top three, weaker than Terran in the middle. 

Zest

Dear

Stats

herO

sOs

Super

Trap (Up 2)

Classic 

Blaze (Up 1)

MyuNgSiK (Down 3)

Zerg:

Dark and Rogue are great. soO improving. Then it becomes a mix of inconsistent guys with a ton of talent and players who have been doing good online. Zerg still not looking as great in Korea as it is in EU/NA (comparatively, obviously K Zerg are better than foreign). 

Dark

Rogue

soO

Solar (Up 2)

ByuL (Down 1)

Soulkey (Up 1)

DongRaeGu (Unranked)

Armani (Unranked)

Pet (Unranked)

Leenock (unranked)

Overall

Zest

Dark 

Maru

Dear

Rogue

TY

Stats

Byun (Up 1)

Reality (Up 1)

INnoVation (Down 2)

I decided to not spend as much time analyzing each player’s recent results this week, I instead decided to look at some of the power ranking data I’ve accrued over the past month (since my first round of power rankings).

There have been 72 offline matches in Korea featuring players that have been included in my power rankings. I wanted to look at the numbers as simply as possible so I tallied up the amount of wins by higher ranked player vs wins by the lower ranked (or unranked player). 

The results are that the favorites, according to my rankingss are 45-27 (62.5%). Fifty five percent win rate on wagers is generally considered very good in the betting community, So I am happy to have some evidence to back my constant claim that trusting my power rankings is a good strategy to yield positive results. 

Additionally I will say that this simplified version of assessing how my higher ranked players have performed has a few inherent flaws regarding assessing my actual capping ability. For one, it falls short when trying to compare two players of differing races when neither crack the overall top ten rank. For now I just used the simplified method of using the individual race ranks as absolutes, however if I were to grade with a handicap, such as Terran ranks get +1.5 vs Zerg opponents (because they are currently the weakest race) my totalwin percentage is closer to 70%. Additionally this does not count for some of the situational handicapping decisions I make for guys who are playing a lot, or have a more important match looming.

All in all I’ve had a blast betting on SC2 over the past two months, and I am excited to continue to get better at it. 

[capc1ty-blog]

GSL Preview, +Some Kung Fu Cup/Leifeng Cup

I’m going to use betcoin.ag current odds for every tournament discussed today. Bovada doesn’t have odds for the online cups and I don’t want to be analyzing different bookmakers side by side. 

GSL Round of 4 Match 2

Zest vs Dear, My top two Protoss squaring off. If we are going to be forced to watch a 7 game PvP, then this is the match up I want to see.

Zest (Protoss #1, Overall #1): -196. -1.5 @ -110

Dear (Protoss #2, Overall #4): +152, +1.5 @ -125

Zest has been a monster all of 2016. On the year he has beaten virtually every top 10 opponent he has faced and his record since Jan 1 is 22-5. Interestingly though, 2 of those losses come in his last two matches, vs Snute and Classic. Additionally he he played Dear in his first Proleague match of the year, he lost that game. Zest is 5-2 vs Protoss in 2016. Its definitely not good to see Zest in poor form right before this match, however my opinion is that he did not want to show Dear anything in the match vs Classic. Zest opted to play a pretty standard game and Classic gameplanned for it perfectly. If you watched his series vs Snute, you will probably notice it did not appear Zest took him very seriously, which proved to be a fatal mistake. I definitely think the Zest we see tonight does not resemble the guy we’ve seen in his last two matches. If we can learn anything from Zest’s teammate TY, its that KT Rolster is not taking GSL lightly and they are quite invested in having a team kill final. TY also lost his match before his Round of 4 bout. Zest’s strongest match up over the entirety of his SC2 career is PvP. 

Dear has also had a spectacular run in 2016. His overall record is 17-4. Dear has played more PvP than Zest on the year, he is 8-2 in the mirror match up. Dear has played Protoss in 3 of his last 4 matches. He dropped two games to herO that he easily could’ve won, it appeared he became a bit overconfident, which he has a penchant for doing. Super also played him tough but he ended up getting a favorable result in that one. Although Dear has been great in PvP this year, historically it is arguably his weakest match up. 

The two have played each other 8 times, Zest has a small edge by leading the series 5-3. When they played in Proleague earlier this year, Zest threw a large lead. For almost the entire game he had more workers, bases, and army. By the end both players had Disruptor/Blink Stalker compositions and Dear simply out controlled Zest after an over extension. It was a great reminder that Dear’s ability to multitask is as good as any Protoss in the world. Another interesting note about that game is that Zest did not make a single Phoenix. More recently he has favored taking air control, since that was his first Proleague match of the year he was perhaps not quite as comfortable with the unit in LotV. 

Zest has had one other opportunity to avenge a loss on the year, that too was against a powerful opponent. He lost to Rogue a few months ago, but last week he dominated him and got his revenge. Dear has not yet had a chance to avenge a loss on the year. 

There is a lot to like about Dear tonight, and him pulling off the upset does not appear to be that far fetched. Zest likes to pick apart his opponents with constant harass, and when the ultimate battle occurs he usually has the much superior force. Dear likes to power up to a high army count as fast as possible and steam roll his opponent. He plays just enough defense to allow him to get to a point where his offense can overwhelm. This match will come down to how much damage Dear can prevent in the early game. Zest will be punished if he is inefficient in his harass. He will also have to be smart about Phoenix production, he has overproduced them a few times in the past. 

I still think Zest takes this series. When Zest is focused he is unbeatable and his recent results lead me to believe he is 100% focused on Dear. Dear has shown to be an impatient player, trying to force a victory at the slightest hint of an advantage. This is a 7 game series so patience will be tested by both players. 

I bet on Zest -1.5 early on at -161 odds. It appears his recent results have affected the market. I am still considering hopping on Zest ML. 

Kung Fu Cup

TY: -333 

ShowTime: +237

Prop: 5th Game Played, Yes: +199, No: -286 

Korean on foreigner action? Yes Please! ShowTime has looked great lately, and he is currently ranked #2 and #3 on the EU GM ladder. He has also won the ESL Meistershaft Spring, and qualified for WCS Spring 2016 through challenger. That is all impressive... but TY is in the GSL finals. I don’t think you can in good faith bet on ShowTime here. TY is playing a toss in GSL finals, so he is fully focused on the match up. 

DeParture: -154

uThermal: uThermal +118

Prop: 5th game played, Yes: +159, No: -222

As a foreigner, uThrmal has mostly been playing in online qualifiers and cups lately. His form lately has been pretty solid, winning 8 of lis last to matches. Three of those victories are vs Zerg, one of which is the psuedo Korean Hydra. DeParture is just 6-4 in his last 10, but his quality of opponent is on a different level than uThermal. I think getting DeParture at this price is valuable. I Locked in DeParture -154.

Leifeng Cup

All of these matches should be  a treat to watch! 

ByuL: -133

Solar: +102

Both players are not in great form right now. Solar did have a good run to the SSL round of 3, while ByuL has done nothing nearly as impressive. I still think ByuL is in a better place right now even though Solar is a better overall ZvZ player. My heart says ByuL but my head says its not worth risking money on. 

Hydra: -250

XiGua: +185

An Ameri-Korean Zerg vs a Chinese Zerg? Should be fun, I love the aggression the Chinese players are unafraid to employ, and Hydra is much more of a mid/late game player than early. Like the last match, this will be fun to watch, but I don’t think taking the dog is valid, and Hydra is a bit pricey. 

Reality: -435

JIm: +295

Reality is my #10 overall Korean. Jim is a nice player, but gotta think its Reality here.

Byun: -333

MC: +237

Finally a Chance to watch Byun play a great Korean opponent! Obviously MC isn’t the same guy he was  few years ago, but he is still one of the most accomplished Korean players in the world. I can’t wait to see Byun, he is the only member of my Korean top 10 that I don’t get to see very regularly. So far the gaps in high level play haven’t hurt him, but MC is a different animal. It also should be noted that MC beat Polt yesterday so he definitely has an idea of how to play PvZ. I still think Byun overpowers him, but once a gain a fun one. 

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

GSL Round of 4 Match 1 In Review

TY IS A  GOD

TY Defeated Cure 4-0. Not much to say outside TY has the best TvT in the world outside of Maru. Cure did some cool stuff, but the prediction proved true, when the players were forced to get off the rails of their gameplans TY flourished and Cure crumbled. Cure was a deserving member of the GSL final Four, but going up against TY was a recipe for disaster. I expected it to be a closer series, but not surprised TY won.

Kung Fu Craziness

Snute Defeated Zest 3-0. This was one of the most ridiculous series I have ever seen. Zest was seemingly trying to troll Snute at first, but Snute was well prepared, it seemed like Zest didn’t practice for this match. Well done Snute

Stats Defeated Solar 3-1. Stats is clearly in better form than Solar,online, offline, clothesline, doesn’t matter Solar is just mentally broken. He has been pretty quick on his GGs over the past few weeks which shows just how mentally broken he is right now.

No bets today, no SC2 liens available. Until Tomorrow :) 

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Recap, GSL Round of 4 Preview. 4.20.2016

Some really interesting games in Proleague last night. Lets take a look at the results.

Match 1

Dear Defeated Super. Dear still looking great right now. He seems to have rebounded from his two PvP losses to herO last week. That said Super still looked solid and this match was far from one sided until the final engagement. Super appears to have a good feel for the match-up and if he would’ve forced a fight in late mid game he may have taken the map. That said. when it was all on the line Dear took a decisive battle and had the perfect unit comp to counter what Super was trying to do.

BrAvO Defeated aLive. BrAvO has a vast network of Terran practice partners that extends far beyond just the players on Samsung. I love watching BrAvO in Proleague because his level of preparation is so apparent. He transitions from one offensive to the next as good as anyone and his ability to take advantage of the maps is superb. aLive is still having some trouble after looking great to start the year. 

Reality defeated Bomber. Bomber has recently been surging in Proleague, but Reality has looked good in every match he has played over the past few weeks. This game was a seesaw that featured both players repeatedly over extending. The game came down to Reality finding an opening where Bomber’s marines were separated from his medanks. It was all over when Reality capitalized on this advantage.

Samsung Galaxy Khan defeated Afreeca Freecs 3-0. Samsung Galaxy looked great. If the three guys we saw can keep up their current form and Solar comes back around Galaxy is a real contender to reach the Proleague Round 2 Playoffs. 

Match 2

herO Defeated INnoVation. INno is still completely lost vs Protoss. In this match he reverted to a Heart of the Swarm build, which herO completely shut down. Glad to see herO returning to form, sad to see INnoVation looking so weak.

RagnaroK Defeated Dream. RagnaroK is a master of ZvT, as evidenced by him doing something Dark, Losira, and Curious could not do in the past few weeks, thats taking a map from Dream. Dream seemed to be in control but a technical difficulty forced a pause, after that the game seemed be all in Ragnarok’s favor. RagnaroK successfully hid a base and was able to tech up faster than Dream could adequately prepare. Excellent play from RagnaroK. 

Dark defeated Bunny. Bunny rolled out some Gold League style cheese that should’ve destroyed Dark’s greedy fast 3 hatch opening. Dark caught a whiff of what was happening just in the nick of time and reacted spectacularly. His control and decision making saved the day for SKT. The power of a focused Dark should not be understated.

soO defeated ByuL. Although soO was a bit disappointing in SSL and GSL, he has looked great in Proleague. This was one of the most fun ZvZ I’ve ever seen because by the end it was mostly a Ultralisk vs Ultralisk battle. soO was able to win the match because he was very successful in shutting down his opponents expansions while more easily acquiring his own. In the end, soO just able to produce more stuff. Not a bad showing by ByuL, but if CJ is to make any noise this season they will need him to turn the corner. 

ACE: Dark Defeated herO: herO has looked better lately, but Dark has looked great all year. He used some of the same mechanics that he employed vs Stats in the SSL finals. Speciifically he forced the Protoss force to stay home while he safely and aggressively expanded on his side of the map. His approach to ZvP seems to be “Get a great economy, don’t worry about being 100% efficient in mid game skirmishes.” This works because he is able to quickly remax with cheaper units, while the Protoss is forced to try and produce an army comp they can’t afford. Additionally he seems to have learned from his Terran peers, taking a head on fight vs Protoss is never going to be easy, so its better to make the opponent try and split their army perfectly.

SKT defeated CJ 3-2. A much closer match than most would’ve expected, but in the end SKT’s depth shined through. Its crazy to think that even without their top two Terrans performing, they have plenty of juice to take out nearly any other team’s best players.

GSL Round of 4, Match 1

Lets look at the current odds on Bovada for TY vs Cure

TY: -285, -1.5 @ -155

Cure: +210, +1.5 @ +120

TY is the best TvT player in the world not named Maru. Cure is one of the best players at preparing a specific game plan and executing it vs opponents of all skill levels. Additionally, Cure is teammates with Maru, I am quite certain the two have been working together a ton in preparation for this match. What concerns me is that this is a 7 game series, that is a lot of specific builds to know and execute. TY on the other hand is an amazingly instinctive TvT player, he won’t need to rely on a multi-step plan if he wants to win. I think he will be able to play reactive, which has recently caused some real problems for Cure. TY has played 6 TvTs in 2016. He has beaten Dream x2, aLive, and Ryung, he lost to Bunny and Maru in back to back Proleague outings. His overall TvT record on the year is 4-2 (Map score 7-2).

Cure has played 13 TvTs with an 8-5 record (18-12 map score). Offline Cure has played 5 TvTs, his record is 3-2 when not playing in online cups. In offline matches he has beaten Sorry (3-0 in Code A), the rest of his TvT offline results are Proleague where he defeated Forte, lost to aLive, beat Reality, then lost to Bomber. 

I think we will learn a ton about TvT tonight, and I will be surprised if this match-up does not have an effect on the current meta of TvT. I definitely think Cure will be able to take a map or two. But in the end I cannot go against TY in this spot. I expect him to win the series 4-2.

My Bets

TY -1.5 @ -118 vs Cure. I bought in TY with the spread on open so I got  a bit more value than what is currently available. Map one should be very indicative of how prepared the guys are for tonight. By only having limited exposure on the spread I have some room to bet live on individual maps and the live match odds, will definitely have my eyes there if TY seems he has taken Cure lightly.

GL HF. 

.... EXTRA CREDIT: Kung Fu Cup

We have a unique Korean vs Foreigner match tonight, as well as a battle between two solid Koreans.

Odds from betcoin.ag

Zest: -455

Snute: +307

Prop: 5th Map Played, Yes +198, No -286.

Wow lots of Zest love on this one. Not surprising considering he is the top player in the world facing off against a foreigner. That said Snute is a top 5 non-Korean and will be playing a style that is likely not as pervasive in Korea. Its fair to assume Zest is much more focused on GSL than this Cup, meanwhile Snute is likely feverishly preparing for his chance to take down the best player on the planet. Obviously It would be hard to pick Snute to win this, but the 5th Map played prop seems like its worth watching.

Stats: -118

Solar: -111

Prop 5th Map Played, Yes +160, No -222.

I like Stats here, he recently took a graduate class in PvZ when he went 6 games with Dark in the SSL final. Historically Solar is a great ZvP player, but in Legacy of the Void Stats has better results in the match up. Additionally Solar’s form both online and off has been far from impressive in the past few weeks. I like Stats to repeat a series win like he did in the SSL losers final. I bet on Stats -118. 

More GL, More HF

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Week 3 Day 1 Review, Day 2 Preview.

Yesterday’s games certainly didn’t disappoint. They weren’t great for bets, but still great to watch. Here is a breakdown of all of yesterday’s action.

Match 1

SKT Defeated KT 3-1. SKT reminds everyone why they are the deepest team in Proleague. KT’s top two players are deep in their GSL round of 4 prep. Meanwhile the SKT guys were licking their chops to get into this one. 

Classic Defeated Zest. Classic is alive? Classic hadn’t played in a month, and has played very little all year. Zest had very little to study, so he chose a middle of the road build that Classic exploited. Zest is usually all over scouting and defending early game. The problem is Classic didn’t really try anything early, and Zest’s scouting was a bit off, missing the timing of Classic’s third base. Good for Classic.

Dark Defeated TY. For some reason the commentators were all over Dark, acting like he threw this one in mid game. But TY had his hands full and made a few mistakes with his sim city at home. For one he didn’t ever finish the wall at his third, and 2 he seemingly tried to hurry to the point of the game where the turret wall goes down. It was a bit early for my liking and he was wasting resources that would be better served in supply depots/army. Dark is sharp and doesn’t have to worry about any other tournaments right now, TY has a GSL match with Cure tomorrow.

Stats Defeated INnoVation. I thought INno’s result vs Super last week was a bit of a fluke, but now there is cause for legitimate concern. Stats played great and INno looked lost. Hopefully Classic/MyuNgSiK/Zoun are in his ear. Terran really shouldn’t be be getting ran over in the mid game vs Protoss in the current meta.

soO Defeated Leenock. soO chose early aggression and Leenock had no answer. Lets hope that this is the start of soO getting his swag back, the Korean Zergs need someone besides Dark and Rogue to step up. 

Match 2

Jin Air Defeated MVP 3-0. Seems like JIn Air is super confident right now. They did not respect MVP and chose to cheese in 2 out of the 3 games played. Obviously it worked.

Maru Defeated GuMiho. I was super hyped about this game, it was the first match between these two great Terrans since 2012. Maru wanted to end it early though, he knew GuMiho is not the best about getting off early scouts. He exploited this with a 2Rax Reaper build, it snow balled and he took an easy victory.

sOs Defeated Ryung. 2 base 7 gate adept all in. If unscouted Terran really does not have much of a chance. It went unscouted and the second cheese by Jin Air was just as successful as the first. Feel bad for Ryung because he was starting to come around, but its also great to see sOs looking confident.

Week 3 Day Preview

More great matches tonight, lets take a look at current odds on Bovada and do a bit of analysis.

Match 1

Samsung Galaxy: -180, -1.5 @ +150

Afreeca Freecs: +140, +1.5 @ -190

Both teams are currently winless in this round. On paper they are pretty close, as evidenced by the odds being much closer than most of what we saw yesterday.

Dear (P #2, O #4): -240

Super (P#6): +180

Super has started the year off better than I think most would expect. Same can be said about Dear, but the difference is Dear has consistently performed vs higher competition. Dear’s PvP looked a bit suspect last week when he dropped two games to herO, but he has hopefully been working with his coach Stork to fix some of the holes in his game. This game is a rematch from last month, in that game Dear won. I think we see the same result tonight.

BrAvO: +100

aLive: -130

BrAvO has a reputation of being a bit of a Terran sniper. aLive is arguably a top 5 TvT player in Korea. BrAvO played a great game in beating ByuL last week so Samsung is definitely confident in his ability right now. That said, BrAvO has only played 5 pro matches in 2016 and his record is a paltry 2-3. He has played one TvT, dropping the series 1-3 to Forte. aLive has been very active online and off, he is 42-26 on the year. That said aLive has dropped his last four matches and his form is not where it was 2 months ago. I think BrAvO will prepare something special and I like him in the upset here.

Reality (T #5, O #10): -155

Bomber: +120

Reality is on a roll right now, he has won his last 9 matches. Bomber is finding his form too though. He is undefeated in TvT in 2016 with a 3-0 record. The build orders are going to tell the tale of this one, is one of the players going to try to snipe? If so I lean towards Bomber trying something weird. That said I still think Reality takes this one. 

Patience: -150

Armani +115

Patience started off the year heart, making it to the SSL Final Four. However recently he has looked helpless, only winning 2 out of his last 10 matches. Over that period he has beaten 2 Zergs, RagnaroK and Symbol, but lost to soO and Soulkey. Armani has played a total of 3 matches vs Protoss in 2016, his record is 1-2. Additionally Armani has only played offline twice this year so Patience should have more comfort in the booth. I think Patience takes this one. 

Samsung ACE: -175

Afreeca ACE: +135

My guess is that Dear would be the Samsung Ace. I don’t think Afreeca has an answer for him.

Match 2

SK Telecom T1: -275, -1.5 @ +100

CJ Entus: +200, +1.5 @ -130

It is no secret that CJ has looked horrible in 2016 considering the big name talent on their team. SKT has been taking care of business. I am a bit surprised they aren’t a bigger favorite.

INnoVation (Terran #3, O #8): -120

herO (P #4): -110

herO has struggled vs Terran recently, INnoVation has struggled vs Protoss. Lets see who has learned from their mistakes. I think INno gets an edge here because of all the available data from Cure’s GSL games. That said herO will be taking a hard look at Super and Stats’s results so he has information to work with too. Yesterday I liked INno, today I’m not certain either way.

Dream (Terran #6): -225

RagnaroK: +170

Dream played some of the coolest TvZ I’ve ever seen vs Curious last week. Ragnarok has only played two ZvTs this year, but they were impressive victories over ByuN and INnoVation. Dream is 5-1 vs Zerg on the year, but in December he dropped a 2 game series to Ragnarok. Both players have not been the most active in 2016, but after Dream’s showing last week Its hard to choose against him vs a Zerg opponent. His last three were Dark, Losira, and Curious and he handled business easily.

Dark (Z #1, O #2): -260

Bunny: + 190

I would not be surprised to see Bunny try a build similar to the one Bomber executed last week. That said Dark has no other tournaments to worry about and SSL is squarely in the rear view mirror now. Bunny is a good TvZ player historically but Dark is the best Zerg in the world. I like Dark here but I think the price is a bit high. 

soO (Z #3): -155

Byul (Z #4): +120

Both of these guys have fallen off a lot since Heart of the Swarm. soO has some newfound momentum while Byul’s results are still hit or miss. soO s the historically better ZvZ player, while Byul specializes vs Terran and Protoss. soO is perfect in ZvZ this year, Byul has been handled by top ZvZ players. I like soO.

SKT ACE: -140

CJ ACE: +110

I think SKT wins this before we get to the ace. I think SKT has a few guys that can’t be matched by CJ currently,

My Bets

Samsung -1.5 @ +150 vs Freecs. 

I don’t think the Freec’s lineup is quite right in this one. They need an upset from Bomber to have a chance, and I don’t think he does it vs Reality.

Reality -154 vs Bomber: Reality is surging right now. Bomber is starting to get some confidence but I think Reality will be ready for anything bomber throws at him.

Patience -150 vs Armani. Patience has played many more quality opponents than Armani. I think this is where he gets back to winning offline.

SKT -1.5 @ +100 vs CJ. CJ has been pretty poor dating back to last round. I think Dear gifted them their victory last week, I do not think SKT is going to take them lightly tonight.

INnoVation -147 vs herO. The downfall of locking bets in early. I think INno dropping three matches in a row is pretty unlikely, but herO is a good player. I don’t feel good about this one. 

GL HF

[capc1ty-blog]

Proleague Round 2, Day 3 Preview

This week features the best matches we’ve seen in the Proleague regular season all year. Nine of my top ten power ranked players have matches this week.I can’t wait to watch. wager and learn. 

Here are the current match odds on Bovada, and a breakdown of each game.

Match 1

SK Telecom T1: -150, -1.5 @ +165

KT Rolster: +115, +1.5 @ -210

These lines tell an interesting story when you couple them with the ACE match odds. The numbers say the sportsbook believes we see 5 games tonight, they also say they expect the KT ACE to win if we get there. Yet SKT is the straight up favorite? Outside of reading into the numbers this should be one heck of a way to kick off the Proleague week. These are two of the top 3 teams in the world. SKT is undoubtedly the deepest with talent, but KT might be the most top heavy. 

Zest (P #1, O #1): -180

Classic (P #7): +140

I, and everyone else who analyzes Korean Starcraft has said Zest is the best player in the world in a million different ways. Instead of using more superlatives I’ll just lay out Zest’s numbers in 2016. 22-3 overall with a 36-5 map score. In PvP Zest is 5-1, the one loss coming at the hands of Dear in Zest’s first Proleague match of the year. After that match he beat sOs, Hush, Trap, Jieshi, and Hush again. Classic has played 13 total matches in 2016 with a 7-5 record. He is 1-1 in PvPs having lost to Patience in SSL and beating Creator in GSL. On one hand you could say Classic has an advantage in that he has a ton of tape to watch in preparation for this match. On the other hand why would it matter for Classic when it hasn’t helped any of Zest’s recent opponents (of all races). Classic has not played a professional match in over a month, getting back into the booth vs Zest is going to be a gargantuan task. I think Zest takes care of business. 

Dark (Z #1, O #2): -170

TY (T #2, O #6): +130

This match should be a real treat because it features two of the most talented and active Legacy of the Void players. Dark is the SSL Season 1 Champion, a weekly starter in SSL, and Reached the GSL round of 16. TY is also a weekly Proleague starter and is facing off against Cure in the GSL round of 4 later this week. When focused, both of these players are world champion quality, but they share the same weaknesses. They tend to get impatient and sometimes try to force victories. Additionally they are susceptible to underestimating weaker opponents. That said neither of them will be taking the other lightly tonight. Dark’s overall record in 2016 is 15-5, he is 5-3 in ZvTs. TY is 19-10 so far this year, and 7-5 in TvZs. Two of Dark’s three Terran losses came in his last two games in the match-up so TY will definitely have recent information on how to take a map from Dark. This match is actually a rematch of a Proleague game played as an ace February 16th, in that game Dark won with a Nydus (dancing his army on the way to victory). I don’t think he will be able to do this again and if TY learned anything from Dream and Bomber he will realize pressuring Dark as he tries to get to three base is the best path to victory. Dark has such good control that his critical mass of Zerg units is smaller than other Z players, so staying on top of his production is paramount. Don’t know how this one will go and am not ready to make a prediction. 

INnoVation (T #3, O #8): -165

Stats (P #3, O #7): +125

INnoVation underestimated Super last week and ended up losing a match everyone expected him to take. In week 2 of Proleague Round 2 Stats was slotted against Maru in one of the greatest matches we’ve seen in LotV. INno started off slowly in LotV, his overall record is 12-8, but he is 7-3 in his last 10 matches. Stats started 2016 off faster than nearly any other player, his record is 16-8, and is 6-4 in his last 10 games. INno is 2-2 vs Protoss, Stats is 7-4 vs Terran. Experience in the match up definitely falls on the side of Stats. That said INno played a Protoss last week, Plays a Protoss tonight, and plays another talented Protoss in herO tomorrow. He is 100% focused on TvP and learned what not to do last week. He is a robot that knows how to learn from his mistakes. I imagine he has studied the hell out of all of Stats’s games vs Terran, he is definitely the type of player that can exploit an information advantage. The losses to Terran by Stats have come in twos from KeeN and Maru. KeeN did it with crisp builds, Maru did it be being Maru and playing all over the map. I like INno in this match-up simply because he has more tools to use in creating a perfect build to counter Stats. 

soO (Z #3): -190

Leenock: +150

Both of these guys have had rather uninspiring starts to Legacy of the Void by their standards. soO should be a top 10 player in the world but his consistency has not been there. His overall record is 14-8, but he is an impressive 4-0 in ZvZs, beating Horror, Ragnarok, and a pair of ZvZ studs in DongRaeGu and Solar. Leenock is 9-8 overall this year and 1-1 in ZvZ. He beat Jaedong and lost to Solar. soO looked good in his last outing, I am thinking he is starting to turn the corner but I am not THAT confident he takes care of business tonight. Leenock has been far from impressive, and I don’t think he wins tonight. My pick is soO but I don’t love it because Leenock is always capable of pulling off a snipe. 

SKT ACE: +105

KT ACE: -135

KT has the best player in the world, I do not know who SKT could send out with confidence to beat him.

Match 2

Jin Air Greenwings: -450, -1.5 @ -180

MVP: +300, +1.5 @ +140

It appears the books think MVP used all their magic last week. I too think Jin Air should win, but that is quite a high price considering MVP 3-0′d CJ last week as dogs. The 1.5 line seems a bit interesting. 

Maru (T #1, O #3): -240

Gumiho (T #7): +180

Maru has been a monster in Proleague but GuMiho is no slouch. Gumiho plays more online than any top ten Terran while always providing interesting and intense matches in Proleague. Maru and GuMiho are two of the most well known names in SC2, its amazing to think that they haven’t met professionally since 2012! In 2016, Maru is 12-3 and a perfect 4-0 in TvTs, besting TvT monsters such as INnoVation, aLive, and TY. GuMiho might be insane, he has already played 108 professional matches in 2016! Obviously a great majority have been online, but if you look at his aligulac page you will realize he is playing for money nearly every day. Why ladder when you can get practice matches vs other Pros 24/7? His record is 80-28, and he is an impressive 27-4 in TvT. Lets just take a moment to appreciate the fact GuMiho has already played more matches in 2016 than most of his peers will play by years end. The only element of TvT GuMiho has not seen in LotV is the Maru factor. The Maru factor cannot be understated as he is generally regarded as the best TvT player in the world, Gumiho may be #2. I think Maru takes this but my excitement can not be understated. Maru legitimately could be subject to paralysis by analysis given the body of work he has to examine. I expect GuMiho to try and roll out a build that Maru has never seen before. 

sOs (P #5): -250

Ryung (T #10): +185

Since IEM Shenzen the only way you can describe sOs is inconsistent if not underwhelming. He has been able to beat lesser players, but when faced with equal or better foes he has crumbled. In Ryung’s last two Proleague outings he has been a giant killer, besting herO and soO. On the year Ryung is 31-19, and 13-6 in TvP (9-5 vs Korean Protoss). sOs is 12-8 in 2016, and 3-2 vs Terran. LotV is a new game, its crazy to say that Ryung is the vastly more experienced player, but its true. He is a bit of Gumiho Jr, choosing to grind in online cups. On the subject of online cups, sOs and Ryung actually met in February at ROOT Gaming Kings of the Craft. In that series sOs won 3-1. That said I think Ryung has improved a ton since 2 months ago and him as such a big dog seems quite valuable. 

Trap (P #9): -250

Horror: +185

Horror has mostly been relegated to online play lately, Trap recently reached the GSL round of 16. Additionally Trap’s last two Proleague matches were victories vs TY and Reality. Horror has been featured in Proleague once this year, it was a loss to soO. Horror is 31-22 on the year, but 0-1 offline. Horror has only played Protoss offline and posted an impressive 8-3 record. Trap is 14-12 on the year and a solid 6-2 vs Zerg. Trap’s quality of opponent has consistently been better than Horror but Its hard to draw any had conclusions on this match. MVP is putting Horror in this spot for a reason. 

Rogue (Z #2, O #5): -210

DeParture (Z #5): +160

Rogue is currently one of the hottest players in all of Starcraft. That said Departure has been improving lately as well. Rogue started off the year a bit slow, but he is now 12-3 in has last 15 matches, and 16-7 on the year. DeParture has been doing that MVP thing by grinding with his teammates in online cups. He is 44-17 on the year and is also 12-3 in his last 15 matches. Historically ZvZ is Rogue’s weakest match-up and it may be DeParture’s strongest. On the year Rogue is 4-1 vs Zerg, DeParture is 16-5. DeParture seems to have a good feel of ZvZ but his results should be taken with a grain of salt, 7 of his victories are against foreigners. All but one of his ZvZ losses are against ranked Koreans (Soulkey, Ragnarok, Curious). Conversely he has only two wins vs currently ranked Korean Zergs. Rogue’s only Zerg loss came vs Bly online, and he has since beat, Soulkey, ByuL, Impact, and Armani. I think the guy who has played more top competition recently prevails, give me Rogue here in a match that is closer than most people expect.  

JAG ACE: -210

MVP ACE: +160

Jin Air has Maru and Rogue, Not sure anyone on MVP can stop either of them.

My Bets

I was able to jump on a lot of these numbers early or find better on other sites. Shop around before placing bets to insure you are getting every bit of value possible. 

SKT -143 vs KT. I think the deeper team prevails and takes the match before we get to the ace.

Zest -161 vs Classic. I was able to grab the number on open so I am currenly sitting with some good value. I think more money will be coming in on Zest so grab now if you think he takes this match.

INnoVation -156 vs Stats. I think INnoVation is 100% focused on Protoss right now. He has plenty to study and I trust him to be a tough match up for Stats here.

MVP +1.5 @ +140 vs Jin Air. I think there is a reason why MVP has looked improved in Round 2 of Proleague. That reason is that they play more professional games than any other Kespa team. Everyone on their roster is constantly in online cups and the experience is starting to show. I think Jin Air takes the series, but two wins from MVP is not at all unreasonable expectation.

Ryung +185 vs sOs. Ryung is looking beastly right now, sOs is still a bit lost. Ryung is the more experienced LotV player, and arguably has the better resume if we just look at the last 2 months. I have no problem with sOs being favored, but Ryung getting so much +money is too much to pass up on.

Parlay: Zest/Maru/Rogue +291. I took this parlay at opening numbers so some of the value is reduced. That said I have a lot of faith in this considering it features 3 of my top 5 overall players.

GL HF