Future of Healthcare and #HIMSS16
Any good prep for #HIMSS16 involves thinking about the future of healthcare. Living in Silicon Valley I have a front row seat to the advancements in technology poised to reshape the future of humanity. Machine learning, Virtual Reality, the Human Genome Project and the internet of things will undoubtedly impact our lives in general, but they can also have a major impact on the Healthcare industry in particular. To visualize the future of healthcare, I took a look at what’s trending in Silicon Valley and applied them to the healthcare industry. If the possibilities seem farfetched today, remember the iPhone is less than a decade old and has spawned countless industries that have (and will continue to) shape our daily existence. Technology moves fast and these four trends can potentially disrupt all aspects of the healthcare industry.
Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not new to the technology world (I wrote my first neural network in 2001) but with Machine Learning, AI has taken on an open-ended form rife with endless opportunities for technology in general and healthcare in particular.
Machine Learning enables computers to identify patterns and observe behaviors based on empirical data and use all that to ‘learn’. In other words, Machine Learning is a set of self-learning algorithms that can eventually become smarter than any human being on this planet (cue the Terminator music in your head).
In 2012, Vinod Khosla predicted that in time, “technology will replace 80% of what doctors do;” sparking outrage and umbrage within the healthcare industry. Physicians overlooked what Vinod was really saying – that big data, properly harnessed and utilized, had the potential to help physicians perform their jobs better. Farfetched at the time, Big Data and Machine Learning have come far enough in just four years to provide levity to Vinod’s argument
When given access to a trillion gigabytes of patient data collected from devices, EHRs, labs, and DNA sequencing, alongside surrounding factors such as weather, geo-location, and viral outbursts into account – computers learn quickly, and they learn everything. The depth of information provided at such a scale suggest patients won’t need to consult with various specialities to figure out what’s ailing them in the future. Instead, consolidated data will create and provide a fully coordinated treatment plan – something that even Steve Jobs couldn’t get in the last few years of his treatment.
If you’re thinking this sounds crazy, consider the fact that IBM acquired Truven Health for $2.6 Billion earlier this month gaining access to data for 200 million patients to feed Watson, their machine learning product. I can only imagine what Watson will offer after digesting this massive data but one thing is for sure – the result is nothing but good news for patients and their care plans.
The Internet of Things Gartner estimates 6 billion devices will be “connected” by 2020 – collecting data for consumption, analytics and a whole lot more.
Healthcare has historically been a sucker for devices, embracing hardware that captures data, provides diagnostics and even treats patients. Previously, these devices have been in use only at hospitals and other healthcare locations but in the future, this technology has the potential to become a part of every single home – marking a new era in care.
In the future, doctor’s visits will begin before we even head out the door. Our vitals will be captured at home and sent to the doctor, in some cases, we may even receive treatment in the comfort of our home. Further, once treatment begins, a real-time feed on our vitals and conditions will be shared and analyzed automatically via set protocols and triggers, setting off alerts if health declines requiring a change in treatment.
The Internet of Things has implications elsewhere for the healthcare industry. Pharma research could bid farewell to clinical trials once they can access millions of patients’ data to accurately analyze behaviors and results.
Challenges facing immunizations could also be solved using simple, digitized solutions. Currently, vaccinations are rendered ineffective by temperature changes during their transport; a simple tracking device with a thermometer could solve the problem. Similar challenges with manufacturing, delivery and tracking of vaccination can also be digitized to make the immunization programs successful globally.
Last not least, I foresee small nano devices embedded within the human body to monitor glucose, blood pressure, temperature, and more to allow for swifter, more effective decisions to be made so treatments can beging as soon as needed, significantly increasing positive outcomes.
The Human Genome Project One of the greatest breakthroughs in healthcare this last decade wasdecoding the human genome to understand the DNA sequencing. It took 10+ years and a staggering $2.7bn dollars to crack the code of one human being. Just 10 years later, it takes $1500 and a couple of hours to run the genome for any person.
The more we learn about DNA and its sequencing, the more accurately we can treat patients for their illnesses. There will be no guesswork involved, instead, a complete technical report will show exactly what went wrong since last time, and what can be done to fix it.
The future is closer than we think, I suspect human genome machines will be deployed at healthcare locations in just a few short months. The appetite for this type of information will grow, and eventually, we may live in an age where small genome devices are installed under your sink or inside your toilet seat (yuck!) to analyze changes in your DNA sequencing couple times a day.
Today researchers in Europe are using 3d printers and DNA sequencing to create human body parts that can potentially replace limbs or ailing organs. Prototypes exist and are absolutely mind-blowing.
DNA sequencing will help people take more control over their body, allowing them to make better informed decisions about their lifestyle, illnesses and treatment. This means that doctors’ roles will change, potentially allowing for a complete shift in the healthcare paradigm.
Virtual Reality in Healthcare Nowadays Mark Zuckerberg takes all opportunities to promote his latest $2b acquisition, Oculus, a Virtual Reality headset. I had the opportunity to try Oculus just a few short days before the announcement and was blown away. Market analysts say Mark was crazy to bet on this, but I know he’s discovered a platform with potential to be larger than Facebook.
Virtual Reality transports the user into another world by creating an artificial environment, deceiving your sense of sight and touch, so your mind believes you are part of that environment.
At AgeTech, the recent Aging2.0 conference,I watched a man struggle to walk while wearing Oculus. Moments after putting the gear on, a 30-something year old man was experiencing the physical shortcomings of someone in their 80s. These types of experiences open a whole new world to researchers, providing them with the ability to directly experience physical and psychological challenges rather than rely on observations.
The environment created by VR is artificial and programmed- for now. But fast forward 3-4 years, and you will very likely be in a real environment. Consider this, a doctor could be transported to a hospital in Kenya while sitting in the relative comfort of his clinic in San Francisco. The VR gear would allow the user to move around and interact with people enabling participation in treatments, research or even surgery.
I suspect Mark will combine social networking and virtual reality,allowing people from any part of the world to meet up with one another, to visit places they’ve previously only dreamed of and go on adventures their body would never allow in the real world.
In healthcare, innovators are already leveraging VR for treating PTSD, autism, social cognition, meditation, and help with exposure therapy and surgical training. And this is just the beginning.
The day is fast approaching when I’ll be able to virtually go to hospital to meet with doctors and specialists, share my vitals through various devices and video camera to gain assessment and treatment plans from the comfort of my own home.
HIMSS has never disappointed me in terms of participation and size, and I am hopeful that this year innovations will continue to shock and awe, whispering promises of a healthier future full of empowered patients. I plan to share my findings after the conference, stay tuned!
About the Author Fahad Aziz is the co-founder of the Caremerge, a care coordination network that works with longterm care facilities nationwide to digitize complex workflows, capture clinical and behavioral data and provide analytics to improve the quality of life for older adults. Fahad lives in San francisco and often speaks at conferences about the business and technical challenges of building a digital health company. Reach him at [email protected].