The log-normal implies that a small systematic increase or decrease in each factor, analogous to being more careful & proactive in general about maintenance and risk, can cause a large difference in final outcome (Shockley 1957). One must expect the unexpected, and a failure to âsweat the small stuffâ means you are allowing brush to pile up in the forest: one match could set it ablaze. People who do not sweat the small stuff have a remarkable tendency to have âbad luckâ and somehow keep getting into trouble, much like the less intelligent suffer more âaccidentsâ or natural disasters have death tolls almost entirely determined by povertyâcertainly, time & chance may happeneth to us all, but our preparations & reactions play an even greater role in determining how far things go.
Gwern, âSocksâ









