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DEAR READER
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Jules of Nature
shark vs the universe
i don't do bad sauce passes
wallacepolsom
almost home
YOU ARE THE REASON
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pixel skylines
Monterey Bay Aquarium
noise dept.
if i look back, i am lost
@theartofmadeline
Sweet Seals For You, Always
2025 on Tumblr: Trends That Defined the Year
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@colindlloyd
Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?
Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?
During the last three months inflation has become a much debated topic. This article, which was published in March, may still add something to the increasingly heated debate: – Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip? https://www.aier.org/article/inflationary-inflection-point-or-temporary-blip/
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Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand
Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand
Macro Letter – No 139 – 18-06-2021 Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand Talk of a new commodity super-cycle may be prematureOnce GDP growth returns to trend, commodity demand will moderateFiscal and monetary relief are key to maintaining growth and demandStructural changes in energy demand will prove more persistent As the spectre of inflation begins to haunt economists,…
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First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator
First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator
Macro Letter – No 138 – 21-05-2021 First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator China was the first country to recover from the Covid-19 pandemicThe PBoC began tightening monetary conditions in May 2020Chinese housing and stocks remain strong despite official policyChinese contagion remains a risk to the global recovery Whilst there are many aspects of the Chinese command economy which…
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Digital Currencies and US Dollar Dominance
Digital Currencies and US Dollar Dominance
I published this essay at the end of last year but as Cryptocurrencies and Digital Asset gain further prominence, I take the liberty of sharing once more. Central Bank Digital Currencies will be the next ‘innovation’ but we may see money, traditionally a store of value and a means of exchange, become either one or the other. https://www.aier.org/article/digital-currencies-and-us-dollar-dominance/
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Debt or Taxes
With a new administration installed in the US and a $1.9trln relief package approved, attention has now turned to how this fiscal largesse will be paid for. I thought this article from September 2020 might add to the debate. https://www.aier.org/article/debt-or-taxes/
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A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 2
A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 2
Macro Letter – No 137 A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 2 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubbleShorter-term indicators suggest the markets have run ahead of fundamentalsExpectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic remain keyEven a slight moderation of fiscal and monetary expansion could precipitate a crash Men, it has been well…
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A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 1
A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 1
Source: Peter Boockvar, Pinnacle Data, Haver Analytics, Citi Macro Letter – No 136 – 19-02-2021 A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 1 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubbleLonger-term indicators present mixed signals about valuationExpectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic are keyA recovery in productivity growth relies on…
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Podcast with Max Gottlich - 22-01-2021
Podcast with Max Gottlich – 22-01-2021
Podcast with Max Gottlich – 22-01-2021 A 30 minute podcast interview covering stocks, crypto assets and thoughts about monetary and fiscal policy for the year ahead.
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The Fiscal Centralization of Europe Will Not End Well
The Fiscal Centralization of Europe Will Not End Well
With another $1.9trln of US fiscal relief set to be voted through, attention is likely to switch back to Europe. This article from August 2020 seems relevant to the debate. https://www.aier.org/article/the-fiscal-centralization-of-europe-will-not-end-well/
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US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021
US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021
Macro Letter – No 135 – 31-12-2020 US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 2020 has been a torrid year for stock markets globallyFiscal and monetary stimulus rescued investors from a brutal bear-marketDigital transformation has accelerated and fortunes of the technology sector with itWith mass-vaccination still some way off, 2021 will see many trends continue The US stock market is making…
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Relax, Rotate, Reflate
Macro Letter – No 134 – 27-11-2020
Relax, Rotate, Reflate
With US elections over and a vaccine in sight, financial market uncertainty has declined
Rotation has seen a resurgence in those stocks battered by the onset of the pandemic
Monetary and fiscal spending will continue until inflation returns
November has been an interesting month for financial markets around the world. The US…
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Global Money Supply Growth and the Great Inflation Getaway
Global Money Supply Growth and the Great Inflation Getaway
Back in June I wrote about the prospects for inflation in the wake of global money supply growth. The deflationary forces of the pandemic and demographic aging still maintain the upper hand for now, but there’s a tug of war which governments need to win if debt is to be inflated away.
Global Money Supply Growth and the Great Inflation Getaway
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The prospects for Emerging and Frontier Markets in the post-Covid environment
The prospects for Emerging and Frontier Markets in the post-Covid environment
Macro Letter – No 133 – 06-11-2020
The prospects for Emerging and Frontier Markets in the post-Covid environment
The Covid pandemic has accelerated several economic trends
Technology industries will benefit
Less developed countries will suffer
This crisis could see ‘The African Century’ postponed
During the past six months the global economy has been assailed by a multitude of vicissitudes. But…
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Musings on Low Interest Rates and Skewed Asset Prices - Transfin Podcast 91
Musings on Low Interest Rates and Skewed Asset Prices – Transfin Podcast 91
TRANSFIN. Podcasts: Banter On All Things Worthy
Musings on Low Interest Rates and Skewed Asset Prices with Colin Lloyd of In the Long Run https://audioboom.com/posts/7713927-musings-on-low-interest-rates-and-skewed-asset-prices-with-colin-lloyd-of-in-the-long-run
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Step-change at the Fed – Reaching for the stars
Step-change at the Fed – Reaching for the stars
Macro Letter No 132 – 04-09-2020
Step-change at the Fed – Reaching for the stars
The Federal Reserve has changed the emphasis of their dual mandate
Inflation targeting will become more flexible in the long-run
Full employment has become the Bank’s priority
Asset markets will be the immediate beneficiaries
In a speech entitled – New Economic Challenges and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Review–…
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When does a recession become a depression?
When does a recession become a depression?
Macro Letter – No 131 – 21-08-2020
When does a recession become a depression?
Defining a depression as opposed to a recession is open to wide interpretation
Recessions are a natural part of the credit cycle
Depressions are destroyers of a nation’s wealth
Fiscal policy can help ease the pain of ‘creative destruction’ but long-term planning is key
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which,…
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Is this the End of Globalization?
Is this the End of Globalization?
Back in March I wrote this article about the reversal of trends in globalisation. The reversal continues.
https://www.aier.org/article/global-supply-chain-shock-is-this-the-end-of-globalisation/
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