Is the Israeli biennial fiscal budget effective?
Israeli government’s two-year (=“biennial”) policy was first introduced in 2009 and led the fiscal budget covering 2009-2010. Since then, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been supporting justifications of maintaining the biennial budget despite wide political discord. Regardless to political controversy, I was wondering what is the impact of Israel’s biennial budget on government expenditures. Fortunately, while studying at LSE I had the opportunity to measure its impact.
In my analysis I use a proxy, and Israeli Ministry of Economy’s budget planning helped me to understand the impact of government’s biennial budget. Interestingly I found that after the introduction of Israel’s biennial budget, fiscal planning for the Ministry of Economy was improved. Average actual expenditure (over budgeted expenditure) grew from 77.8% to 78.5%. This is an improvement because the Ministry of Economy’s actual spending has been much lower than its appropriated budget for years. During the period 2004-2013 the Ministry’s appropriated budget was valued to total amount of ILS 57.5 billion (USD 14.9$ billion) but ILS 13.3 billion (USD 3.5$ billion) were not spent during these years despite the ministry's potential spending. Though no causal relationship can be firmly concluded, the Ministry of Economy’s actual expenditures grew in correlation to Israeli government biennial budget reform.
Since 2008, when Israel joined the OECD developed-countries club, the Israeli economy grew at a real annual average rate of 3.5 percent (Ben-David, 2014). The biennial budget was introduced by the Israeli Ministry of Finance in 2009, amidst the global financial crisis and in times of national political instability. On July 15, 2009 the Knesset, Israeli Parliament, confirmed for the first time in Israel’s history a biennial budget to the consecutive years 2009-2010. The major reason for the fiscal reform was driven by volatile political circumstances, instability of the governing coalition of the 2009 election and short horizon for the fiscal budget.
The implication of introducing the biennial budget was to allow the new government then (formed on March 29, 2009) to reduce costs and time in planning both the 2009 budget and the following year’s budget for 2010 in a short period of six-week time (Rolf, 2009).
The Minister of Finance at the time, Dr. Yuval Shtaynitz, announced the reform and argued that the goals for transforming the budget from annual basis to biennial were threefold (Katzovitz, 2012).:
(1) ensuring Israel’s economic growth,
(2) improving fiscal management for compliance with the deficit goal and
(3) increasing efficiency of the budget planning and implementation
The first budget under this approach covered 2009-2010 and the second covered 2011-2012. Due to continuing political instability, the third biennial budget remained, covering 2013-2014 when the previous Minister of Finance Mr. Lapid took office. The total budgeted expenditure for the entire government for 2013 only was ILS 139.8 billion (USD 36.3$ billion) (Ministry of Finance, 2015).
On September 2014, the government has approved the new 2015 budget, and planned for returning back to an annual budget. However, due to the government dissolution immediately after September and no formal Minister of Finance in office until last election (when Mr. Kachlon took office in March 2015), the fiscal budget eventually did not return to an annual basis. De facto, Israeli fiscal budget is still biennial to this day with current government despite public controversy.
Positive economic performance is crucial to Israel for various reasons. Despite its political instability and defense challenges, Israel has succeeded to attract foreign direct investments, mostly for its innovative High-Tech industry which grew through the Chief Scientist policy in the Ministry of Economy (Ben-David, 2014).
Israel's key economic indicators of real GDP and fiscal balance as percent of read GDP have been significantly better than the OECD average from 2005 to 2009, according to these OECD graphs from a 2011 publication.
However, a closer look at Israel's fiscal balance over the years shows it has not been relatively positive. An advanced analysis of the Bank of Israel (BoI) found that deficit targets have been missed and reset on several occasions (further details in Bova et al., 2014). Over the last twenty-two years, targets were revised about fifteen times and were also often missed largely owing to growth shocks, which caused revenue shortfalls.
Aside from one or two exceptional circumstances, no other OECD member-country has ever adopted a biennial budget in central-government budgeting (Rolf, 2009). However, it has some popularity in twenty states in the USA and gains some support with international organisations. Various studies analysed the advantages and caveats of annual and biennial budgets in the United-States but show no significant advantage of one method over the other.
Proponents for the biennial budget argue it has three major advantages (Rolf, 2009). A biennial budget (1) supports long-term government planning, (2) allows a wider time framework for analysing and evaluating programmes and projects by the government and legislators, and (3) reduces costs and time spent on planning and confirmations (both by government and legislator). However, the main limitation for the biennial budget is not being dynamic and relevant in the second year. The planning of the biennial budget is based on forecasts, similarly to the annual budget. However, these forecasts may be inaccurate and require a series of updates to the second year of the biennial fiscal cycle.
There is consensus on the uniqueness of the biennial budget in the fiscal perspective. Consequently, the decision to introduce it, as well as later decisions to keep it during the past years, are still heatedly debated in Israel. But evidence from fiscal policy analysis of the Ministry of Economy Budget During 2004-2013 shows that the biennial budget is correlated with better matching of budgeted expenditures and actual expenditures.
Data Analysis of the Ministry of Economy's Overall Budget
My policy analysis evaluates the Ministry of Economy's main spending trends in light of the biennial budget first introduced in 2009, and seeks empirical evidence to find whether the biennial budget increased the Ministry of Economy’s efficiency of budget planning.Examining trends in the ministry’s budget planning and actual expenditures from before the biennial budget was introduced and after, I argue that the Israeli biennial budget increased the ministry’s efficiency. In other words, I found improved match between budget planning and spending by allowing the ministry to better match its overall budgeted and actual expenditures. Keeping constant all other potential explaining variables (mostly, the recovery from local economic shock of 2003, global economic shock of 2008, defense operations, and increasing fragmentation of political electorate), I evaluated the ministry’s actual expenditure over the budgeted expenditure based on quantitative data analysis from 2004 to 2013. Data of all line-ministries' budget original appropriation and actual spending are published online, annually, by the Ministry of Finance website (Ministry of Finance, 2015).
What is the difference between Total Budgeted Expenditure vs. Actual Expenditure?
The Total Budgeted Expenditure is calculated by the sum of the following two sub-components:
Budgeted Expenditure includes Expenditure and Revenue-Dependent Expenditure.
Spending Authorization includes the maximum amount on which the government is allowed to commit upon, for a given year. This mechanism enables the government to plan for the following year.
Actual Expenditure data are also published by the Ministry of Finance.
From 2004 to 2013, the Ministry of Economy spent on its core policies a total aggregate amount of ILS 44.2 billion (USD 11.4$ billion as of June 30, 2016). However, the ministry's budget during this period of time was appropriated with a much larger budget of the total amount of ILS 57.5 billion (USD 14.9$ billion).
This analysis shows that ILS 13.3 billion (USD 3.5$ billion) were not spent during these years despite the ministry's potential spending.
In my data analysis on Israeli Ministry of Finance accounts I find that on average, the ministry spent 77.8% of its budget every year. The following figure shows that the ministry has been missing the budgeted expenditure target every year.
However, when observing for average actual expenditure of the ministry before the biennial budget was introduced and after, I find that the ministry's actual spending reflects a positive trend. After 2009, when the biennial budget was enforced, actual expenditures have increased.
The following figure shows that on average, actual expenditure over budgeted expenditure has increased after 2009.
From 2004 to 2008, average of actual expenditure over budgeted expenditure was 77.2%, while in the years following the introduction of biennial budget (2009-2013), average of actual expenditure over budgeted expenditure was 78.5%.
To conclude, despite various potential explaining variables, on aggregate the ministry's actual expenditure was closer to the budgeted expenditure target after the biennial budget reform.
These were my top policy insights:
From 2004 to 2013, the Ministry of Economy actually spent on its core policies a total aggregate amount of ILS 44.2 billion (USD 11.5$ billion).
This actual spending is much lower that the Ministry’s appropriated budget. During this period the Ministry’s appropriated budget was valued to total amount of ILS 57.5 billion (USD 14.9$ billion).
The Ministry’s appropriated budget of ILS 13.3 billion (USD 3.5$ billion) was not spent during these years despite the ministry's potential spending.
On average, the Ministry spent 77.8% of its budget every year. This implies that the ministry has been missing the budgeted expenditure target every year.
After 2009, when the biennial budget was enforced, actual expenditures have increased.
From 2004 to 2008, average of actual expenditure over budgeted expenditure was 77.2%. During 2009-2013 the years following the introduction of biennial budget, average of actual expenditure over budgeted expenditure was 78.5%.
On aggregate the Ministry's actual expenditure was closer to the budgeted expenditure target after the biennial budget reform
Israeli Ministry of Economy better matched its overall budgeted and actual expenditures after the government introduced the biennial budget.