SMU vs. Temple Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 11-5-2020
Two AAC schools will face off on Saturday afternoon as the SMU Mustangs travel to Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Temple Owls. SMU enters this game with a 6-1 record after beating Navy by 14 points at home in its last game while Temple has a 1-3 record after losing to Tulane by 35 points on the road last week. This will be the seventh meeting between these two teams.
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The line has moved toward the hosts slightly in this one as the week has moved along. This line originally opened as SMU as an 18.5-point favorite but things slipped slightly during the week. As of Saturday morning, the line has moved to SMU -17.5 at most sportsbooks. 70 percent of the bets ATS are backing the Mustangs and giving the points as the road team in this contest.
The total for this contest has stayed relatively constant this week. After opening at 62 points, the total currently sits at 62 or 62.5 points, depending on the sportsbook you frequent. A solid 70 percent of the bets on the total are expecting this contest to end up over the mark.
Game-time Weather: Temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the high-60s for this contest with the real-feel in the low-70s under sunny skies. The temperature will climb into the low to mid-70s as the game continues. There is no chance of precipitation in the forecast, making for a gorgeous early November day in the City of Brotherly Love. Winds are from the southwest around six miles an hour with the gusts ending up topping out around the seven-mile per hour mark.
SMU Looks For Another Offensive OutburstSMU has looked like one of the best football teams in the American Athletic Conference this season as it has won six of its first seven games. The Mustangs started the season with victories in each of their first five games before losing to Cincinnati at home by 29 points. On the bright side, SMU bounced back nicely as it defeated Navy by 14 points last week. In that game, SMU's offense was amazing as it scored 51 points while recording 555 total yards of offense. Leading the way was quarterback
who had 300 passing yards along with three passing touchdowns. Now, SMU will be looking for another 50-point game from the offense against one of the worst defenses in the nation on Saturday.
SMU's offense has been elite this season as it currently ranks 13th in the nation with 39.6 points per game. In addition, the Mustangs are averaging 330.1 passing yards per game which is the 13th-most in the nation as they have been able to move the ball with ease through the air with no resistance.
If there is an issue, it's on the defensive end, where SMU allows 415.1 yards per game and 193.7 on the ground.
Following last week's victory, SMU coach Sonny Dykes commented about how his team still needs to improve when it comes to finishing games.
"We've talked about this before. We're trying to get to the point where we can finish games better when we have big leads. It's been something that has creeped up a couple of times this year where we've really jumped out to a good lead, whether it was North Texas or Memphis, or the other night where we really play well early and then you know just didn't play as well in particularly late in the game. We're still learning how to do that. I think we're still learning how to play with the lead."
OUT: RB TJ McDaniel, WR Reggie Roberson Jr.
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Temple Continues To StruggleTemple has looked like one of the worst football teams in the ACC up to this point as it has lost three of its first four games. The Owls started the season off with consecutive losses before beating South Florida by two points several weeks ago. However, that victory did nothing to spark the team moving forward as Temple has lost each of its last two games by at least 12 points including a 35-point blowout loss to Tulane last week. In that game. Temple's offense was awful as it only scored three points while recording just 11 first downs. The main reason for its struggles was the absence of starting quarterback
who was unable to play due to a shoulder injury. Now, Temple will be looking to get back on track with a tough home game against the Mustangs. Russo will be out most likely and if he can't go, head coach Rod Carey will go with a platoon of Re-al Mitchell and Trad Beatty at quarterback.
Temple's defense has been awful this season as it currently ranks 83rd in the nation with 36.8 points allowed per game. To make matters worse, the Owls are allowing their opponents to convert on 50.0% of their third downs which ranks 93rd in the nation so they have been awful at forcing opposing offenses off the field.
Following last week's loss, Temple coach Rod Careycommented about how his team got dominated in the trenches for all four quarters.
"Weāre still really disappointed with it. And just quite honestly, I felt like we lost both sides of the line of scrimmage. Thatās the first time Iāve felt like that since Iāve been here. And thatās not good enough."
OUT: QB Kennique Bonner Steward, RB ReāMahn Davis, QB Anthony Russo, S DaeSean Winston
Questionable: WR Jose Barbon, CB Elijah Clark, LB Audley Isaacs, TE Darius Pittman, OL Wisdom Quarshie, LB Yvandy Rigby
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Mustangs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
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SMU might have struggled against Cincinnati but that is reasonable considering the fact that the Bearcats are ranked within the top-ten and have a great defense, so I think that the Mustangs are the much better team in this matchup. Temple got blown out by a very underwhelming Tulane team last week and SMU's offense is averaging 39.6 points per game so I can see the Mustangs putting up a ton of points on Saturday. At the same time, Temple has struggled a bit with offensive balance (and likely will be without Russo) as it is only averaging 125.5 rushing yards per game so I can see SMU daring Temple to beat it on the ground. SMU should win this game by at least 20 points so I have to side with the favorite.
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Both of these teams have solid offenses and underwhelming defenses so I think that this total is too low. SMU is averaging 39.6 points per game while allowing 29.4 points per game. Temple is averaging 25.0 points per game and allowing 36.8 points per game so I can see this game getting into the 70s. SMU should be able to move the ball at will en route to at least 45 points since Temple has not been able to stop any team all season long while Temple should be able to score at least 25 points against SMU's average at best defense.
Prediction: Over 62.5Half-Time Side Pick
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SMU is ranked for a reason and Temple is looking like one of the worst teams in the entire conference so I think that the Mustangs should be able to get out to an early lead within the first 30 minutes of this game. SMU has great offensive balance and Temple has been unable to stop opposing offenses on a regular basis so I question Temple's ability to score enough points in order to keep this game close in the first half. I expect SMU to score at least 24 points before halftime and I think that Temple will fail to score more than 14 points so I have to side with the road team.
Prediction: SMU 1H -9.5Written By Scott Reichel
Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.
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