The Fact of the Matter

Opinionated Thoughts on Sports

[fotmatter]

Nerlens Noel Torn ACL and the Fairness of the One and Done Rule

  The Fact of the Matter is…Nerlen Noel’s torn ACL is a loud and unpleasant reminder of the odd NBA’s draft eligibility rules.

Nerlens Noel was a consensus top 5 recruit coming out of The Tilton School In Northeast Massachusetts. Coveted by colleges by his freakish athleticism, outstanding defensive presence and a shot blocking that was already at an NBA level.

These traits came to fruition during his freshman season and was the number 1 overall pick on most mock draft boards. However an awkward fall going for a block and subsequent tumble on the base of the basketball may have killed his draft stock, possibly even his basketball career. 

This brings up the issue of the draft eligibility rules or “One and Done” rules that were changed by the CBA in 2006. This ruling was made for several reasons many financial, and others to help high schoolers that weren’t ready to make the jump to the NBA to reconsider their options and not lose the opportunity to go to college and (gasp) actually get an education at a top institute. 

At first glance this rule seemed to be a blessing for college basketball fans like myself. I always wondered how stars like Lebron, Kobe, Kevin Garnett and Amare’ Stoudemire would be if they played a year of college ball. My reactions were optimistic to say the least. 

However looking back at this ruling nearly 8 years removed. I would undoubtedly change my stance to the former. There are several problems that are associated with “forcing” a talented high school player to attend one year of college before entering the NBA. 

-Injuries: (see Noel above)

-Basketball player first, Student second: Let’s be honest, most of these players are not attending classes and could care less if they flunked out since their eligibility is not need for their sophomore seasons. 

-Negative Impact on Recruiting: College coaches are torn between bringing in a phenom for one year of service or recruiting the raw 18 year old that is likely to stay for for years. 

[fotmatter]

Merry Christmas from FOTM!

The Fact of the Matter is...it's the holidays and even though I have plenty of free time I'm too lazy to write a new post.  Keep on the lookout for more Final Four previews after the break!

[fotmatter]

The Fact of the Matter is… It's never too early to take a look at the favorites to cut down the nets come march.

     (This will be a team by team preview, 5 separate posts for 5 contending teams)

                                                                         Indiana 

                                              The Hoosiers were consensus preseason #1 according the AP and coaches poll, Although they just lost to a very game Butler team on Saturday this team still has what it takes to win it all. 

Why they will win it all...

High Powered Offense

This team plays at an exceptionally fast pace, According to Ken Pomeroy and the Kenpom ratings Indiana sits atop all division one teams with an adjusted offensive pace of 121.4. It cannot be overstated enough that Indiana is able to play at this blistering pace with exceptional efficiency, averaging just 12.4 turnovers a game. 

Strong Role Players 

Indiana has an undeniable star in C Cody Zeller, yet when you watch Indiana you don't see him take over games the way many future lottery picks tend to. This is because Indiana is very well balanced with a stable of role players. Guards Yogi Ferrell and Jordan Hulls are great at controlling pace and make great decisions in transition. Victor Olidipo provides a mix of athleticism and strong man to man defense and Cristian Watford and Will Sheehey provide clutch scoring and rebounding.

Battle Tested

It wasn't long ago that Indiana was considered not only rotting at the cellar of the B1G but at the bottom of Division 1 basketball. There are still some players on this team that went through the 6-25 campaign of 2008-2009 in Verdell Jones and the aforementioned Cristian Watford. The road to redemption came full circle last year on their sweet 16 run and beating a then #1 ranked Kentucky on a buzzer beater at home. Under Tom Crean Indiana is also challenged with a tough non-conference schedule along with playing in what I believe to be the best college basketball conference this year. 

Fatal Flaw....

Defense 

According to KenPom ratings Indiana only ranks 12th in adjusted defense. Indiana recently gave up 88 points to a Butler squad that struggled to score 47 against Xavier. Whats more concerning is that when the team is rolling offensively, defense is not a priority as evidence of their 100-69 win to Central Connecticut State. This mentality lead to their demise last season in a wild 102-90 loss to Kentucky in the NCAA tournament. With that said this team has all the talent to improve and Tom Crean has shown he can coach run and gun basketball while also playing above average defense during his tenure at Marquette. 

[fotmatter]

Where Does Boxing Go From Here?

The Fact of the Matter is… The punch heard around the world, a swift and powerful right hand ended an era in boxing.

              It's unusual to see a fight being touted as a rivalry when one fighter is winless in three previous bouts against another but that is exactly what Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiaio shared going into the MGM in Las Vegas last saturday. Most saw the bout as one between two evenly matched foes, with the elephant in the room being the controversial judging of the draw, and two wins in favor of Pacquiaio in their previous three bouts. Many experts predicted the bout going to the hands of the judges once again.

Although the fight was close going into the epic 6th round, I gave Pacquiaio a slight one round edge on the scorecards. The 6th round was something else. Back and forth action brought the MGM crowd to it's feet following an equally exciting 5th round where Pacman rocked Marquez. Then suddenly at 2:59 of round 6... it was all over. Marquez timed a perfect overhand right that knocked Manny out cold, and I mean cold. An eerily motionless Pacquaio was face down on the canvas and smelling salts had to be used to bring him back to life. 

                                So after we witnessed a seemingly invincible legend's reign come crashing down to the canvas one has to wonder where does boxing goes from here?

To predict that we have to understand the analytical model of Boxing. Boxing is more or less like a hurricane, a hurricane starts with nothing more than warm moist air entering a high pressure system, then slowly gaining momentum until it becomes a tropical storm, until finally transitioning into a full fledged hurricane only to quickly die out. Boxing goes through phases as well, albeit in a much longer timeframe. Global stars like Mayweather and Pacquiaio were nothing more than unknown up and comers to everyone but hardcore fans until long winning streaks and tactical promotions made them superstars. However it took nearly a decade since the beginning of their perspective careers until they garnered the popularity they have in the present day, a time where their careers are arguably on the backend.

Stars like Mayweather and Pacquiaio are few and far between in boxing, even in the golden age of boxing when you had stars like Ali, Frazier, Tyson and Foreman. These figures took years and years of promotion and ring seasoning to bring to let their talents be known to the public.

And essentially this is why Boxing will never be a mainstream sport, especially in this modern landscape.

The problem is boxing builds around only one or two stars for every big card they put on PPV (pay per view). These one or two stars essentially have to carry the card, not only with their performances but the way they promote themselves to drive PPV buys. This established hierarchy leads to boxing's pay scale inequality. It's not uncommon to see Mayweather or Pacquiaio pull in ~$70 million per fight only to see the fighters in the co-main event pull in ~$10,000. You just don't have the depth of stars in boxing as you would in other mainstream sports like Football, Basketball or Baseball that you can market and promote around. 

Notice something? The same handful of names have been headlining PPV's in the last 20 years. 

And with the KO of Pacquiaio this weekend, It shouldn't be surprising if Manny steps away from the ring completely and take on his political career full-time. With Manny presumably out of the picture for the time being, Boxing has one legit star left in 35 year old Floyd Mayweather. It's times like these you come to really appreciate the unrivaled talents and personalities that Mayweather and Manny have. 

Boxing's top up and comers in Andre Ward, Dinoto Donaire and Adrien Broner are names that few casual fans have heard of and will never be able to sell very many PPV's as headliners.

The future of boxing looks cloudy at best right now, but Marquez's overhand right may be remembered as a knockout that ended an era or at most one that further weakened the already declining popularity of the sweet science.

[fotmatter]

The Curious Case of Jon Jones

The Fact of the Matter is... Jon Jones is is an enigma, a once in a lifetime talent with a shadow of controversy surrounding him.

      Jon Jones is quickly becoming the face of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, at only 25 years of age "Bones" has already cleaned out the light heavyweight division in the span of one year. He is known for his tentacle-like reach at 84', his bone-crushing elbows, and a swagger unbeknownst to the sport. He is also the first fighter in the active UFC roster of the to be courted by a mainstream North American sponsor in NIKE.    

                                    With all these things considered, why is there so much controversy surrounding Bones?

While Jones has been near perfect in the UFC 10-1 (loss coming from a DQ in a fight where he dominated) perfection in the octagon does not equal perfection outside of it. In the past year Bones, has been criticized for a DUI, win which he crashed his Bentley Continental GT in the rural Binghamton, NY. 

The drunken mistake was only the first crack in the foundation, just a few weeks ago Jones was blasted for turning down a fight with a perennial middleweight contender in Chael Sonnen at UFC 151 on three days notice which led to the event being canceled, the first UFC event ever scrapped in the Dana White, Fertitta regime. 

Turning down fights isn't anything new in combat sports but Jone's has gotten the brunt of the media's angst for publicly stating that certain fights don't interest him, or in his mind would not do well in the Pay Per View arena, in which Jones almost certainly gets a cut. This is a dangerous precedent, as we covered how hard it was to get two of boxing's best into the ring in our last post. 

It would be unfair to not mention how much of Jone's hate stems from him utterly dominating his opponents thus far and skyrocketing up the Pound-for-Pound ranking in the matter of a year and a half. He came became in a dominating force in a division that has not seen a consistent title holder since Chuck Liddell. With that said Jone's still has room to grow, albeit more outside of the octagon than inside.                              

                                             [Hopefully Jone's remains focused and we get to see more jaw dropping moves from him like this suplex against Stephen Bonner]

FOTM Prediction: We know that Jones will be facing Victor Belfort at UFC 152 in Toronto in roughly three weeks. I would be shocked if Belfort even won a round. This reflect in some vegas odds already listing Belfort as a 15/1 underdog. I expect Jones to dominate Belfort via leg kicks and jabs to manage range and takedowns when Belfort rushes in. An early first or second round TKO or Submission seems to be in order for the champ. For the long term I expect Jones to reign the LHW for the next 3-4 years and possibly moving up to Heavyweight in 2014 after he runs out of contenders in a division where Jone's is becoming a shark in a very very small pond. 

[fotmatter]

Will Mayweather and Pacquaio Ever Happen?

The Fact of the Matter is...Floyd Mayweather needs to fight Manny Pacquaio before the end of 2012 or the fight is in danger of no longer becoming relevant. 

         There is no reason to beat a dead horse here, Mayweather and Pacquaio have been in "talks" since 2003. Thats 9 years of being teased with a close call in 2010 mixed in. You can't blame fans for their waning interest after being held out for this long, no one really cares about who will win, we as fans just want to see this fight happen. Boxing could have moved on, it should have moved on. From Ali to Tyson to De La Hoya stars coming and going is a common place in boxing. The problem is 9 years later this is still the premiere fight to make. 

The classic match-up of good vs evil.

Pacquiao builds churches in the Philippines, sings karaoke, quits drinking and gambling. Nevermind that he has like an alleged 50 kids from extramarital affairs he is a GOOD guy....I mean all 45 of his wives told me so. 

Mayweather on the other hand burns money...literally burns money. He also walks out to the ring with 50 Cent AND Justin Bieber.  Which is probably a bigger crime than him actually going to prison for assaulting his wife.

                              ....Oh yeah and theres THIS 

"Wait Wait Wait!! But didn't Pacquiao just lose to Tim Bradley?"

Only those that did not watch the fight would say that. I have watched the fight three times from beginning to end and its a stretch to give Bradley even four measly rounds. Somehow the judges got away with Robbery in the First Degree in front of millions. 

So Back on topic. This fight has to happen in 2012 or will probably never happen. Mayweather is 35 and Pacquiao is 33. Both are past their primes and have shown vulnerability in their last couple fights. Mayweather has been dropped by a prehistoric Mosley and rocked by a unmotivated Cotto. Manny on the other hand is arguably should be 0-3 against Marquez, couldn't finish a timid and scared Clottey and dominated his way to a split decision loss vs. Bradley. With that said both have cleaned out their respective divisions and are far and away the two most marketable fighters in the game right now. (next closest marketable fight Cesar Chavez Jr vs, Sergio Martinez wouldn't even get 500,000 PPV buys) Their time at the top is coming to an end and 2012 could mark their last chance to appease millions. 

FOTM Prediction: Fight agreement gets signed for July 2012 at Cowboy Stadium, fight falls through February due to Mayweather wanting Manny to stick 40 needles into his wrists a week before the fight and Pacquaio's manager Bob Arum demanding Mayweather to give up 90% of his purse and fight with only one glove.