J2 Fallout Theory (not quite a Masterpost)
So from what I've gathered, this theory posits that Jensen Ackles and Jared Padalecki went from "Best Friends Forever" to mere friends/bros/coworkers or worse (though I still think they're friendly).
The key tenets of the theory are:
1. During 2019-2020 J2 started drifting further apart. We stopped seeing them hang out together in non-work related settings. They stopped posting as many pics together or of the other on social media (Jensen's last solo pic of Jared was July 2019, for example). And we haven't seen pictures of the FAMILIES together in years (we used to get pics of their kids playing together, or of the wives hanging out, or of the families doing Halloween together). Granted everyone spent most of the last year in lockdown, so you'd expect less in person contact. But even before the pandemic, their non-work relationship seems to have been trailing off. It's interesting to note that the two never started a business together, despite originally stating they had plans to do that when the Ackles family first moved to Austin in 2016. Instead, the following year Jensen opened a brewery with his in-laws and Jared opened a bar (and later an MLM supplement company). Some hypothesize that the nail in the coffin may have been when they were pitched the SPN ending back in July 2019 (an ending which Jensen later revealed didn't "sit well" with him). Jensen said he turned to friends to sort through his feelings as well as talked to both Kripke and the show runners. It's speculated that Jared's response was less than understanding (and may have been influenced by his plans to produce Walker).
2. After they filmed the SPN finale in September 2020, their social media interactions dropped way down. They still occasionally like or comment on the other's posts, but at about 20% of the rate they used to. Likewise, their wives also reduced social media interactions to almost nothing. All of this while still being active on social media themselves and continuing to like other SPN co-stars content at similar rates (for example, the rate at which Jensen and Misha interact on social media has basically stayed the same). I believe @sarahbela actually plotted out every social media like, comment, or tag on charts if you want to go look that up! More recently, Jared didn't use social media to wish Jensen a happy birthday this past March or to congratulate him on winning a recent award.
3. Also in September 2020, Jensen and Danneel created their production company Chaos Machine Productions. By the first week of October, they'd already signed a deal with Warner Brothers and had acquired the rights to SPN. This is less than a month after filming wrapped, meaning plans had to have been in the works for this for a while. We now know they managed to snag Renee Reiff as their new Head of Development (who is notorious for bringing LGBTQ representation into the DC tv universe) and even partnered with beloved former SPN writer and Co-producer Robbie Thompson (beloved for giving us Charlie and Eileen as well as some of the best Destiel episodes ever). It seems very clear that the Ackles family was going one way while the Padaleckis were going another.
4. Jensen moved his family to the mountains of Colorado last year sometime in the Fall, away from Austin and the Padaleckis. We have Jensen saying they moved in an December 2020 Instagram post, sharing a pic of Danneel painting the home's interior in January, and even Danneel sharing pictures of the kids on the home's exterior deck as recently as this June dressed in shorts and t-shirts. So even if it's a "second home," and they still call Austin their home base, the truth is they haven't been living in Austin for at least 6 months at this point. It's increasingly likely that they haven't seen each other since they returned home after they wrapped filming in September 2020.
5. Jensen's Sexy Silence regarding the SPN finale seems to indicate some bitter feelings not just about Dean's ending, but also between J2. Fans think this is proven by their awkward interactions during virtual cons post-finale in which Jared said some insensitive things about the ending and you can see Jensen either in shock or biting his tongue to not comment. It's also driven home by Jensen's refusal to star in Walker, which Jared is both producing and now starring in since Jensen turned the role down. The theory is that Jensen resents Walker for forcing the CW to end SPN in such a nonsensical way that catered to Jared but did Dean dirty.
6. Fans also speculate there's some bitter feelings from Jensen regarding the Impala. He's told fans for years that he wanted Baby when the show ends, but the CW kept refusing until he FINALLY worked it into his contract after years of back and forth about it. AND THEN, the CW just up and gave Jared the other Impala they used for filming because he's their new star of Walker without Jared having to jump through a billion hoops.
7. This recent Twitter chaos created by Jared's tweets about not knowing anything about Jensen's new SPN prequel seems to confirm that the two rarely communicate these days. Not only did Jared NOT KNOW about the prequel before reading the news online, but in a subsequent tweet to Jared, Jensen mentioned how he missed their "talks," hasn't had any facetime with Jared, and admitted to being "busy." This all just sounds like the excuses you give when you're really out of touch with someone, even if it's a person you still like.