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CONNECT THE DOTS

Yesterday evening I read an editorial in the Evening Standard with some “back to work” fashion picks. There was a shirt I liked. This morning at 2am, when I had a sleepless moment I ordered it online. Interestingly the etailer had done nothing to highlight this item which had received quite a large prominent spot in the newspaper feature. A missed opportunity if you ask me.

Similarly, I spotted this weekend a really cool personalised notecard option featured in LIVINGetc, an interior design magazine. It was one of 12 possible ones, yet this one the editorial team had highlighted as the one they particularly loved. I looked the supplier up on the web and once again the marketeers had not connected the dots - there was no special homepage feature showing “as seen in LIVINgEtc

I could go on and on. Each of these are an example of marketeers being too focused on doing special stuff rather then using social media and online to really tap into how consumers nowadays discover, consider and buy. Both examples above provided great exposure with the added benefit of a credible 3rd party voice promoting their products (we are all more likely to buy that shirt if a good fashion editor picks it and talks us through how to wear it etc, than if we just see it in an ad). In both cases it cost the retailers/brand nothing ……a free opportunity ……but they both failed to use their resources to make the most out of the opportunity.

So why is this happening? In many companies marketing, pr and the web are organised in separate departmental “silos” that often talk too little nor align their strategies. In fact, they often even compete for budget rather than work together to deliver the most bang for the marketing $. So the pr department who knew the feature was about to appear or received the clipping from their pr clipping service the day after, failed or didnt even think to talk to the team in marketing and the web team to help them close the loop ……or even if the pr team did, they likely would be told by the other teams that “they were too busy with other campaigns”. A huge failing in my eyes …..and a costly one ….as it would have taken a pretty costly ad to get anywhere close to the exposure and impact of both these pr features…..

That is why i fervently believe that: 1. Any marketeer worth their salary should be held accountable to amplify through the web and social media any exposure achieved through PR 2. Companies need to rethink how they structure their marketing and communications departments. They need to work seamlessly together and silos dont allow for that. 3. Your marketing campaign approach needs to reflect the new purchase cycle .. And nowadays that starts a lot less often with what consumers see advertised….

So maybe China's growth isn't as sustainable as you may think- Lessons from Paul Krugman and Rana Foroohar #China

Do you believe China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy and dominate the world? It intrigues me. Part of me is preparing for a "new world" (For example, at the tender age of 40 I have decided it is absolutely necessary to learn Chinese) and part of me is still doubting that Asia will overtake the West.

I therefore read any good article or book published on the topic and hence was this week listening to Raghav Bahl's book "Super Power? The Amazing Race Between China's Hare and India's Tortoise" and he referred to a Newsweek article written by Rana Foroohar and published in the October 26, 2009 issue, which basically challenged and argued why the popular view and belief that China's growth is sustainable is wrong. He also referred to an article by Paul Krugman, who in his paper titled "The Myth of Asia's Miracle" compares our current obsession with the rise of the Asian economies with the widely held expectations (in the West) during the 1950s/1960s that the Soviet Union would overtake the US as the world's leading economic power. I decided to look both of these articles up as they appealed to that part of me that wonders "will it really?" .

Both articles are definitely worth reading in full. So if you have the time then just click on the links below. However, for those of you who are time-poor (or just a little lazy) I have summarised below some of the key points & insighst form both articles.

"Everything You Know About China Is Wrong" by Rana Foroohar

"The Myth of Asia's Miracle" by Paul Krugman

Key point summary of Rana Foroohar's "Everything You Know About China is Wrong" (Newsweek,Oct 26, 2009)

Foroohar sets out to debunk 6 commonly held assumptions about China:

Myth: The Communist Party is a monolith - Foroohar: The challenges of managing China's economic growth have created two factions in the party. There is populist faction, including the current president and prime minister, which is keen to use state power to control the economic growth to maintain social stability. On the other hand there is an elite faction, mainly made up of government officials and bodies in the prosperous coastal regions, who want the state to step back to enable high speed growth through more freedom for free markets and support for the private sector

Myth: The communists are brilliant economic managers, judging by how China stimulated its economy in the face of the financial crisis - Foroohar: 95% of the $600billion stimulus package went to state-owned companies. Hence, much of the growth in GDP since then has been driven by the state rather than a consumption boost due to increased activity in the private sector.

Myth: Capitalism is flourishing - Foroohar: Whilst the number of private enterprises doubled between 1990 and 2008, their number has since started to decline. Private companies loose out against to state-owned competitors who have easy and cheap access to credit. Moreover, private enterprise has been limited to just some sectors as they cannot compete in some of the most lucrative sectors- finance, telecoms, and energy - as they are still predominantly state-owned and supported.

Myth: China is an export driven country - Foroohar: China's growth depends on state funding. Net exports account for just 7% of China's GDP.

Myth: Chinese companies will rule the world - Foroohar: China's 800-pound gorillas (most are state-owned) are too focused on meeting the great domestic demand and are not investing in research or branding to enable them to become a global player. Why spend money to become more globally competitive when you have a monopoly in the world's most populous country?

Myth: China puts money before the environment - Foroohar: Wrong. Once China realised that its people could be among the hardest-hit victims of global warming, it has made green technology a priority, launching major research initiatives on solar-powered batteries and wind technology

Key point summary of Paul Krugman's "The Myth of Asia's Miracle" (Foreign Affairs: Nov/Dec 1994; Vo.73, Iss.6; pg. 62, 17pgs)

In the 1950s and through to the early 1960s the West was mesmerized by the rapid growth of the Soviet economy. Articles appeared regularly about the potential impact on the West of the growing industrial might of the Soviet Union. It was widely believed that the Soviet economy might outstrip that of the United States by the early 1970s. We all know that this did not happen. So what do we know now that we didn't know/understand back then and how could this inform how we view the current growth in Asia?

The key facts about the rapid growth of the Soviet economy in the 1950s/1960s and why it wasn't sustainable:

Th rapid growth in output of the Soviet economy could be fully explained by a rapid growth in inputs: expansion of employment, increases in education levels, and above all, massive investment by the state in capital assets (machinery, factories, etc). Once those increase sin inputs were taken into account, the growth in output was unsurprising.

Growth that is created in that way can only be sustained if a) one continues to increase inputs. This is hard as there are limits to the amount of people you can push into the work force and how much further and quickly you can increase their education level. The easiest way is to keep investing more capital, though this is limited by the funds of the state b) or if one teaches the workforce to work more efficiently and thus produce more units per person.

Economic research in the 1960s found that the Soviet Union did not manage to make its workers more efficient. So whilst they continued to invest more capital, the growth started to decline very soon and the Soviet economy never overtook the US.

At the time that Krugman wrote this paper in 1994, the global focus was more on the rapid growth of the East Asian Tiger economies (Vietnam, Singapore, etc) and less so on China. However, I find the insights of this paper very helpful when reviewing the recent developments in China. Especially given the news in recent weeks that GDP growth is China is forecast to fall back to 7.5%, mainly as a result as a result of a decline in state capital investments. Moreover, China's workforce is not yet known for its innovation and creativity, two ingredients that are critical for driving efficiency improvements...

It would be dangerous to jump to any conclusions about the sustainability of China's growth, but it is hard to shake off the feeling after reading Krugman's cautionary tale and Fohoorar's myth busting article that China's economy may perhaps not grow as fast as we have all started to believe ......

#China

A MUST-SEE: Dr Tyson's impassioned senate testamony why a nations "big dream" to understand the universe drives innovation and economic growth. It generates benefits way beyond achieving the actual goal. He pleads for the US to re-engage with this dream as it will help it back in the saddle as a leading economy. Make sure you continue to watch it even after his initial statement as his answers to some of the questions that follow are even better than his initial speech.

Tell Me What to Buy: A Review of Mulu.Me, Buyosphere, Stylmee, and Lyst

@TeamMulu @buyosphere @lyst @InsideFMM @Gigaom

Last week, following GigaOm’s recommendation, I read Macaia Wright’s piece on product & content curation and aggregation sites (click here for the article). It listed several new and noteworthy product curation start-ups: Mulu.Me, Buyosphere, Stylmee, and Lyst.

If these product curation sites catch on (which everyone seems to think will happen) then in time this may reverse the flow between brand owners/retailers and consumers: instead of consumers going to brands to buy, brands will have to come to these consumer communities to sell.

Given that I am a marketer and expected to have a considered point of view on these developments I decided to give each of them a whirl. So I did – all of yesterday. I am now a proud member of each of these communities. I picked, “lysted”, loved, added, followed, etc., and below is what I learned as I reviewed each tool from a pure interested user point of view as well as from the point of view of a marketer who needs to consider what role these sites may play in her marketing & sales strategy. (Note: Macaia’s article also listed Svpply, which I wanted to test too, but I could not get it to work on my laptop all weekend - It kept loading and loading and loading)

Here is what I learned:

Product curation comes in different shapes

There are two main models

Mulu.Me and Buyosphere are both consumer –to-consumer platforms: Consumers are invited to add recommended products that can be found anywhere on the web and at the same time they can also use the platform to discover and buy products themselves based on other consumers’ recommendations.

Lyst and Stylmee are both brand – to –consumer platforms : The available product selection is directly provided by signed up brands. Consumers are invited to explore and discover the product selection, using their known style & brand preferences and identify and tag and possibly buy the items they WANT. Others can view their WANTS and take inspiration from this for their own discovery.

The quality of the production selection is key – and there are clever ways to influence it

Of key importance to the adoption of these sites is of course the “quality” of the “start-up” community as this defines the quality of the recommended product selection. This is why Mulu.Me’s approach to support its launch by inviting about 20 stylish celebrities to curate their favorite products is so clever! Because, let’s face it, these celebrities are the ones with the money to spend to buy the best products. Moreover, given their public status they are also the ones who have to make sure they use the best beauty products, select the right clothes (with the help of their stylist) and decorate their homes (with the help of their interior designer) – all to keep up their stylish public image. So yes, people do trust their recommendations and endorsements. In addition, their selection of product recommendations is likely to be more high quality and interesting. As a result, Mulu.Me’s site has provided a fabulous selection of interesting product recommendations from day 1….and these recommendations have been very credible.

This approach really made Mulu.Me stand out from the rest. The product selections on the other sites just weren’t as high quality. For example, I was really disappointed by the community on Lyst. There are no known fashion editors or bloggers on the site. Those could really have added some serious fashion credentials to the community and would have made me want to follow them and see what they would recommend. But now it is just a community of wannabees (of which I happily declare to now be one), who do not really have the credentials to influence my wardrobe choices. Look, I liked it, as I loved the fact that so many fashion brands have gotten behind Lyst. It was a great way to put together my “love to have” wardrobe. But as a marketer I think Lyst has missed a few tricks which could make it the TRUSTED place where you discover & buy what you should be wearing.

Product curation is not yet as fast & easy as it should be

Many of these sites are still in private beta …and it is noticeable – I suffered many freezes, bugs and error messages. Overall there were 3 key user experience areas where each of them still need to work on:

Firstly,most of them suffer from speed issues. Their loading speeds are only just in the realm of the acceptable. Maintaining and increasing their loading speed will definitely need to be an area of focus

Secondly, adding products isn’t as easy & fast as it needs to be: Each of these sites provide so called “bookmarklets”. The idea is so obvious – provide the user with a shortcut to “grab” product content when they are outside of the site. However, the reality was not as straight forward.

My Buyo bookmarklet is still not working and dragging my Mulu.Me bookmarklet into my favorites bar took several attempts. In addition, the Mulu.Me’s picking bookmarklet does need a little further improvement as it doesn’t tell you when you go over the allowed 140 characters in the comment box for your picked item, nor does it warn you that your pick won’t upload when you do go over the allotted 140 characters. As a result I had a lot of wasted efforts. So now I write my comments first in a Word doc, so I can use the character count function to ensure i kept to just 140 characters, before than pasting it into the Mulu.Me comment box. A bit tedious and not something I have time to do other than on a weekend…….

Even when you add products when you are logged-in is painfully slow on all of these sites. They all use the same approach (I won’t bore you with the detail. Just try it) and it really is too slow and often falls-over during the process. This will really need to be fixed to heighten adoption beyond the aficionados.

Thirdly and lastly, I was surprised that none of them have yet launched an iPhone or iPad app. Moreover, whilst all their websites were optimized for mobile, none of their bookmarklets worked on the iPad. To me this is a serious shortcoming which will seriously hamper adoption. The one who fixes it first will have a huge advantage. (Discoveredd, which is a content curation platform, has done so and it works brilliantly)

Does size matter?

For each of these sites it was completely unclear to me how many people have signed up thus far. This bothered me and will bother brands even more. As an individual i want to know because it would give me a sense of what level of activity to expect on the platform. Can I expect to have interesting new “feeds” every couple of hours or is it, at this point in the development of the site, a waste of time to log on more than once a day. Either is fine. It is just better to know as it saves me the disappointment of finding the same stuff I saw last time I logged on.

For a brand it is key for the obvious reason …though one should not expect to see the same user levels as we have gotten used to on pure social media platforms. For example, I work within the luxury goods space and I simply know that there are not 800 million people who can afford to buy my products. For me product curation sites are about identifying real prospective buyers so I am more interested in the quality of the leads and less looking for dazzling numbers.

Size does of course matter to an extent – too small is not good for anyone, however high quality the user base. Hence I expect each of these sites will already be in the process of approaching online retailers and brand owners to put their bookmarklet icons on their e-commerce sites – i.e. in addition to asking consumers to share their purchases on Facebook or Twitter, you also want them to share it on Mulu.me or Buyosphere or Get Vega or Svpply. It is a win-win for the retailers and brand owners as it allows them to leverage existing purchasers to future qualified prospects. In time these might be more valuable than sharing their purchases on pure social media platforms.

In my view these sites should start sharing their user numbers and insight sooner rather than later as they will need to educate the brand owners about their value, which is in my view their ability to connect/engage with “qualified” prospects for their brands (which is different from engaging with a Facebook fan, whose intention to buy is much less qualified). So I would suggest that they from an early stage start sharing insights about their user base such as the top 10 of the most “pinned/picked/lysted” brands; top 50 most wanted products; top 10 most bought products; etc.

Combining what consumers HAVE and WANT in one place adds extra value for marketers

Stylmee and Lyst are about curating your wants and aspirations and desires …even if you haven’t quite got the money to buy all you desire - i.e. on Stylmee and Lyst you can be someone more sophisticated then who you are in real life (i.e. real wardrobe versus actual wardrobe). So for a brand, especially the mid-to-high end fashion brands, the catch with a platform like Lyst or Stylmee is that it may not really give them access to qualified buyers but rather to a lot of aspirational fans who ultimately will have to satisfy their desires with cheaper lookalike clothes from the high street . (Hence that it is absolutely the right platform for ASOS and TopShop, who are both very active on the site and both have a huge following). To make Lyst more valuable as a lead generation engine for these mi-to-higher end brands, it should add a function which allows users to tag what items they actually HAVE. This would then allow Lyst to use that data to identify those users who look like they have the dosh to be real prospects.

Buyosphere and Mulu.Me already have this duality build in. They allow users to recommend an item that they HAVE or to indicate that they WANT/LIKE an item (on both sites this is indicated by a heart-shaped button). To me, as a marketer, that makes Buyosphere and Mulu.Me very interesting as it suggest to me that they have the data to identify a) my existing buyers and their feedback b)my prospective buyers. Moreover, they could qualify my prospective buyers by what products they have curated. For example, the average price point of the products they have recommended would give me an idea of their spending power.

The question is of course a) whether these sites have the ability to analyze the data underneath their sites to that extend and b) how these sites in the future will (be able to) allow brands to connect to these users – eg. through targeted online ads on their site or by sending them exclusive offers via email – but at least they have the building blocks in place to create real commercial value for brands.

What comes first: Discovery or Specific Buying Needs?

Both Mulu.me and Buyosphere allow users to ask questions about specific things they are looking for. The interesting difference is that the questioning theme leads the Buyosphere site – i.e. when you logon the first thing you see are the shopping questions that are trending at that moment. On the other hand Mulu.Me’s homepage is more skewed to the discovery aspect as the engaging grid on its home page shows you lots of products and just a few questions . To me, this was the winning approach. Why? Because other people’s questions are so specif and unique to them and hence most of the time of no use to me (Am I in the market for a pair of bright pink ballerinas? I don’t think so). I rather want to discover first. Perhaps later, once I have been inspired by a product or two, I might want to post my own “what do you recommend” question to the community. Bytheway, I find that quite a “public” and personal thing to do and I think it probably poses quite a high threshold for many other users too. I wonder if Buyosphere appreciates all this. Their slogan is “Ask. Answer. Discover”, but should it perhaps be “Discover. Ask. Answer” ? It is just a thought.

Does gamification play a role?

Stylmee is a free iPad app which combines online shopping with product curation and social game mechanics. The game aspect comes in the form of designing and running your own 3d virtual fashion boutique. I did it, but I can honestly tell you that I don’t think many other fashionistas will be doing the same. (I checked and it didn’t look like there were that many users …or at least I could not find them). It simply was way too gimmicky and tedious and simply too childish. Moreover, you can only place products in your store from the “brand collections” that are available within the app – i.e. you can’t showcase the clothes you really love/want/recommend from anywhere else on the web. So all in all, after spending 90 minutes fiddling about to design my boutique (You can look it up. My boutique is named FloraSophia), I decided to give up and I have already taken the iPad app off my iPad. I won’t be using it. Product curation is fun enough by itself without gamification. (I do feel bad saying this so publicly, as I do know there is a team behind this who have clearly worked really hard to put this together)

That is all for me now. I hope you found this useful.I definitely feel I now have a bit more of a clue about this new emerging space online. In my view Mulu.Me is the frontrunner of the lot at this moment, but time will tell. Buyosphere follows in second place. Lyst comes third for me, but given that they have already had so many brands sign up, I believe they could really be a powerful player in the fashion e-commerce space if they sort out their user proposition. In any case, I will definitely keep a close eye on this space as I do believe it will catch on and cause a big shift in how consumers buy online!

#Social media #Content curation #Marketing #start ups

Some thoughts from Rory Sutherland's presentation at The Big Rethink #bigrethink

@rorysutherland @Economist_innov

At midday today it was time for Rory Sutherland to present at The Big Rethink conference organized by The Economist to discuss the impact of the changing consumer on business.

The inimitable Rory Sutherland, Executive Creative Director and Vice-Chairman of OgilvyOne, made a passionate plea for marketeers to resist the push to make marketing fully accountable.

He posited that businesses today give too much emphasis/dominance in their decision making processes to things that can be numerically expressed and as a result there is a push for marketeers to do the same. However, as Rory pointed out, you cannot deconstruct human behaviour completely into “numerical” data points so you can paint [market] by numbers.

Rory pointed at classical economics as having been one of the reasons why the human factor is not properly represented in today’s business thinking. He said that the result of this was that businesses are operating as “Aspergers Inc”

He argued that rationality and intelligence have, wrongly so, become conflated due to the dominance of the spreadsheet mafia in businesses. However, he pointed out, rationality is not the same as intelligence. Intelligence also includes an understanding and appreciation of the irrational.

Instead he encouraged the marketeers in the room, that to understand and influence consumer behavior, they need to help their businesses refocus on the important role of heuristics (i.e. experience-based problem solving rather than rational logic), in the decision making of consumers

For example, consciously people think that whenever we make a decision, we should maximize (i..e make the optimal choice), because that would be rational….but unconsciously we actually most often just satisfice (i.e. make the adequate choice. There are different reasons for this: sometimes we do it consciously because we don’t have the time to find-out and review all the options; other times we prefer the dependable (what we know) over the variable (what we don’t know when we try and maximize); etc.

And it was exactly this understanding of our at times irrational behavior that made Ray Kroc so successful, because he realized that consumers weren’t necessarily looking for the best hamburger but for the “same” hamburger – i.e. they were looking for a dependable option rather than the best option.

So in summary, what Rory left us with today was an impassioned plea for businesses to understand that businesses need to combine psychology, technology and economics in their decision making….and allow room for irrationality …… because the consumer is not rational

[for more thoughts from today's speakers at the conference, see my earlier post]

Thoughts from the Big Rethink [part 1] #bigrethink

I attended the Big Rethink conference today, which was organised by The Economist in London. The topic of this year's conference was the "changing consumer" and how this impacts businesses. I walked away with some good "food for thought". Below is the first part of my summary. (The second part will follow shortly ....but i need a bit more time ;-) to summarise my copious notes from Rory Sutherland's fabulous presentation...so watch this space for more later on)

Return to a Society of Spectacle? Creating consumer experiences is what many marketeers are currently preoccupied with. This is however not the first time as Alex Gordon from SignSalad at The Big Rethink conference reminded us today. At the beginning of modernity in the early years of the 20th century there was a society of spectacle. Architects, musicians, retailers and craftsmen were all pursuing the production of "special objects". It was about creating awe and wonder, pleasure and leisure. After the war this was swiftly replaced by what Alex referred to as "affordism" but now brand owners and retailers are returning their focus to the experience. The idea is now that consumers walk in for an experience and then leave with a product. Alex then took us through a series of different ways of how marketeers are creating these experiences: 1 by empowering the consumer to take part in the creation of the product/service 2 through spontaneity such as through pop-up (temporary) shops and pop-up (temporary) websites 3 by feedback through requesting ratings and reviews In summary, Alex concluded, it is about putting the consumer at the centre and not the product . Now there is a thought. Many versions of the truth Sue Daun and JR Little from BrandUnion introduced the idea of real-time branding. An approach which puts the idea of brand management on its head as it isn't longer about achieving a certain vision/goal but about knowing what you purpose/mission/truth and using that to create new ways of conveying that truth to your consumers in a way that is relevant to them there and then. The example they used was absolut vodka which has tailored so many different versions of its truth in an authentic way to connect with its different user communities around the world. A sound bite from their presentation that especially stuck with me was: "You (the brand owner) own the business. The consumer owns the brand" Finally, they stressed that to succeed in this world brand owners need to get comfortable experimentation in order to find constantly new and relevant and engaging ways to convey their truth to their varied consumer communities, who are also living in ever changing contexts. Just say it as it is. After decades of making things looking better/more interesting/funnier than they actually are, marketeers should nowadays focus on telling the truth as that is what todays expert consumer wants, according to Jonathan Salem Baskin and Sue Unerman who presented together some key insights from their forthcoming book "The Case for the Truth". One of the starting points of their thinking is that today's consumer is an expert due to his/her abilityto quickly research and compare the reputation/reality of any brand/product/service online. Hence their "case to say the truth". According to John and Sue "if you tell the truth to the consumer, then you don't have to ask permission to market to them, nor do you have to thank them for buying from you". Instead they believe the consumer will thank you for being honest and choose you for that reason ...... Give them something to talk about Jeff Dodd from Virgin Media shared what sounded like such a common sense strategy to attract consumers: Provide a better service ( compared to your competitors) to your existing customers and then they will tell others, who will then consider switching. Simple logic, but not one usually applied in the telecoms industry. Instead promotions are everywhere - discount, free handsets, joining gifts, etc. But now Virgin Mediabhas changed the game and is focusing on using advocacy by its existing subscribers as a result of upgrading the broadband speeoffer all their subscribers to drive switching. It will be great to hear what the final results are as the campaign has only been out n the market for 8 weeks. But I am a believer ......

BIG DATA MADE SMALL

BIG DATA. The business buzz word of today. These two simple words paradoxically describe a very complex issue that is having an enormous impact on our world today and tomorrow. So I thought it would be helpful to attempt to outline the key points that every person in a management function in the private or public sector needs to know…because it provides opportunities and challenges for everyone.

So what is Big Data exactly? Big data refers to the enormous digital data sets that organizations and individuals produce in today’s digitized world. Just think about the data trail that you leave nowadays when you go about your day, using a variety of digital devices to communicate, browse, buy, share, search, etc. The same is ALSO true for organisations as they manage their operational systems, interact with consumers and suppliers, etc.

Because of this rapid digitization of both our personal and professional worlds, organizations nowadays have so much more data than they ever had before. However, there is so much of this data and it comes in so many different shapes and forms: chatter from social networks, content of web pages, GPS trails, geo-location data, video, images such as X-rays and Ct scans in health care data, text and numerical transaction information, etc.

And because there is so much of it and because it is so unstructured, you can’t just easily store and analyse it. That is why it is called Big data – it is too big for our usual relational data bases.

Why is it all of a sudden so important? Until recently the technology that you needed to store, manage and analyse such big data sets was incredibly expensive and thus something from which only a few large companies benefitted, such as for example WalMart. They had the funds to capture and analyse all that data to help them better understand their customers’ behavior and the impact of that on their processes and as such they were able to optimize those based on their findings.

However, as technological barriers are lowered, through innovations in digital storage and computing horsepower, the benefits that can be derived from capturing and analyzing Big Data are now accessible for much less well-funded players in both the private and public sector.

For example, Facebook analyses Big Data about the interest of your friends to make recommendations and Google has just announced that it will start using your personal search history to determine which online ads to show you.

Ok. But what kind of benefits does Big Data enable that could have real economic value beyond Facebook and Google?

This is where it gets interesting. Here are just a few examples to give you a sense of the possibilities:

· The use of Big Data could revolutionize public services as it is now increasingly possible for public organizations to collect and analyse data about the users and usage of their public services. This enables them to do detailed segmentations (something to date mainly the domain of the large consumer goods companies)and actually tailor their services – i.e. this could be the end of the public sector approach of “one size has to fit all” ….

· Analysing Big data can also significantly improve the quality of decision making and thus improve efficiency, minimize risks etc. Just imagine if the tax man used analysis of Big Data about all its tax payers to identify the key characteristics that could help flag tax payers who might warrant further investigation?

· The analysis of Big Data derived from consumer feedback from various sources (social media, usage data from sensors in their devices, etc) can now enable companies to create new products and services that better meet consumer needs or they can even develop completely new business models .

So how soon is this this all going to happen? Are there any key hurdles?

This area is developing fast and as it develops some of the hurdles are becoming increasingly clear. I have listed some of them below:

· Analysing Big Data requires deep analytical skills. Equally it si a real skill to know what the important questions are that you want the analysis to answer in order to drive ground-breaking business innovations. And these kind of talents are not currently that well catered for by our educational systems

· Privacy is clearly an issue. Over time individuals and society will need to come to terms with the trade off between the benefits and their privacy

· Technologies for storing, managing and analyzing Big Data are still developing. It ahs becaome possible now to use Big Data but it is not at all yet easy and straightforward. There is still a long way to go before that.

· Some sectors will have “built-in” barriers to adopting and realizing the benefits of Big Data. For example, in the US health care industry the key players may have conflicting interest: the health care payors would benefit from the use of Big data as it would reduce the number of unnecessary treatments. However this would be to the detriment of the healthcare providers because they would have fewer treatments to charge for. Equally some sectors just have not been very data-minded historically and using Big Data would require a big change in mindset and investment in IT and changes to their current processes.

Why does this matter to all of us?

I provided only a few examples, but Big Data has applications in almost all industries. As technological barriers are lowered and access to data becomes more readily available and easier, those companies who are ready to capitalise on it, whether they are a well-prepared incumbent or a newcomer, have the opportunity to leapfrog the competition by creating huge additional value through efficiencies, enhanced products and services, new business models, etc.

So, I don’t know about you, but I would rather want to be amongst those who leapfrog ahead…..

#Big data

Designing for extreme affordability: Whilst at business school, Jane Chen was asked to develop a baby incubator that costs less than 1% of the normal incubator. This resulted into an idea that she then took forward and is now available in developing markets. An inspiring story of healthcare innovation.

#health care innovation #Healthcare

China's Social Media Landscape Infographic

I had promised some more details about the social media landscape in China and was just about to write it when I cam eacross this great infographic by G+. To see it in full size go to https://www.gplus.com/china/insight/infographic-a-social-media-revolution-chinas#.T09BSmDo-5M.tumblr

China's Mobile Market

Mobile is the way to get to Chinese clients - 70% of web users are accessing the Internet through their phones. So many marketeer are keen to understand what the numbers are so they know who to work with to get to those Chinese customers who now have the money to buy. China is the biggest mobile market in the world: in January 2012 China's mobile subscriber base grew to 988 million according to Reuters China Mobile. 136 million of those are 3G subscriber. China has three state-owned mobile companies: 1) China Mobile, the world's largest provider with 655 million subscribers (This makes it 6 times the size of Verizon in the USA). 54 million of its subscribers are 3G subscribers 2) China Unicom has 203 million million subscribers of which 43 million are in 3G 3) China Telecom has 130 million subscribers of which 39 million are on 3G ..... So if you are trying to reach mainland Chinese clients than you better make sure you have optimised your site and digital marketing for mobile.

wahwahwhitney

Startup life involves a load of networking. Networking involves a load of conversations with strangers. Conversing with strangers involves a load of chime-ins. So, coming back full circle, if I am to be successful with my startup I must master the art of the chime. This is on my mind today because last night I found myself a) pretending to take a fake phone call and then subsequently b) chilling in a bathroom stall* in a panicked response to a failed chime at a startup event.

I have identified three stages to the chime:

The approach;

The 6 second window of opportunity;

The outcome.

With the approach it is important to consider the angles involved. Like a pool player assessing the table you must visualise how your arrival into the conversation will effect the distribution of the others. When one chimes they reduce the personal space of those next to them, these people will want to reposition themselves in a more neutral place, look ahead and see if they will be blocked in any way (ex. office plant). It's key to prevent frustration amongst the original participants, they set the tone of how welcome you are and have the power to 'resist the shift' by holding firm on their position/not opening their shoulder, leaving you on a different contour line and dooming your chime. I've seen this happen many times, it is literally painful to me to watch let alone experience.

Once the approach is executed and the group has re-distributed to accommodate you it is critical to activate your presence within six seconds. I call this the 'six second rule' where one must commence conversation within the first six seconds of opportunity. Ex. standing in line at the coffee shop, if you are going to speak with the person in front you must do so straight after you pull up, if six seconds pass it becomes far more difficult to comment on the weather or compliment their sweater (rhyme!). When it comes to the chime, it is your first responsibility to quickly demonstrate you are not a 'wet blanket'. No one wants a lurker getting all up in their conversation. However, they also don't want instant domination so you must strike a balance between listening to the current discussion and somehow contributing to it. It is tricky because you will likely have no idea what they are talking about; avoid fake laughing and try to ask a facilitating question (ex. How do you see it going?).

If you do activate your presence within six seconds you set yourself on track for a successful chime (see the blue line). You will be gradually involved in the conversation, make introductions, score some laughs and perhaps even ride it all the way to a win. The same trajectory applies to the downward spiral (see the green line); if you fail to interact within the window of opportunity you will have solidified your position as a lurker. The group won't outwardly indicate it but each member will internally register your presence as awkward. It's tough to come back from this.

With an understanding of this three-phase structure I believe we can all master the art of the chime. There are of course many other variables that effect our success so this isn't fool proof. (Ex. avoid attempting to chime into a VIP conversation, I've seen this go down, it was horrific, from a birds eye perspective the angles resembled a kite, with the VIP's holding firm in a equilateral triangle shape and the chimer hanging on as the tail). Chime on!

* While in the bathroom retreat I psyched myself up and got back out there and killed it (see texts).

China Online: A Collage of Stats

Ever since my first business trip to China 4 years ago, I have become intrigued about its development. Whilst I have learned the most from actually going there and meeting with businesses, I also devour any article and piece of information I can find. As I am clearly not the only one, articles on different aspects of China's development can be found left right and centre in today's press, but all of them tell you bits and i started to feel the need to bring it all together in one place. So i have decided to put it all together in a couple of blog posts over the next few days. In my first post today, i have focused on the development of the online market in China.

By the end of 2011 China has an estimated online population of 513 million. 356 million of these users (70%) access the internet through their mobiles.

Online retailing appears to be on the brink of staggering growth in China: 194 million of these internet users shopped online in 2011 - i.e. 38% of the total online population. That is a 21% increase over 2010.

The boom in online retailing seems to be driven by the many of the consumers in the tier 2 and tier 3 cities who now have the same buying power as their counterparts in the coastal cities. (The China Association of Branding Strategy estimate sthat 250 million people in China can now afford the buy luxury goods) However they cannot buy the same products in their cities....but through the internet they now can.

The Boston Consulting Group believes that China's internet retailing market may overtake the US as the world's largest, with total transaction value reaching $321 billion by 2015

China's B2C online market place is dominated by online retailer Tmall.com, which is part of Jack Ma's Alibaba group. In 2011 Tmall.com accounted with $16 billion of sales for 53% of the total Chinese B2C online market, 360buy.com (Jingdong Mall) comes second with 17% ($1.6billion), VANCL.com come third with 2% followed by Dangdang.com with 1.9%

Jack Ma also onws Taobao, China's largest C2C trading platform like eBAY. Figures for the first half of 2011 show that Taobao.com has more than 1 million consumers per month who spend $800 or more on the site. Taobao is also popular amongst elderly Chinese - it has >100,000 consumers aged over 60

Group-buying has been a real hype in China in 2011, with total estimated sales rising to 49.5 billion in 2011, which is a 40% increase over 2010. However, at the same time w hear about the closer of many of these recently established group-buying sites, so this may not be alasting trend.

China has an interesting social media scene, including such players as Baidu, Sina Weibo, Doukan, Tudou and Youku, but we will save that deserves a separate post all by itself.....

#China Online Market #Online retailing #Taobao #Tmall

You know about China, but do you know about Vietnam?

We all know the basics stats about China, but do you know them for Vietnam, South-east Asia’s fastest growing economy? After reading an article in the FT about how many Japanese companies are opening factories in Vietnam, I decided I needed to read up on it. Here are some of the key facts according to a variety of sources (mainly research from PWC, Gartner, Nielsen, McKinsey, and Cimigo):

1.Traditionally, Vietnam was an agricultural economy

2.The growth of Vietnam’s economy is the result of the market reforms that were introduced by the Communist party starting in 1987 which promoted private enterprise, opened the doors for direct foreign investment and introduced agricultural reforms. These reforms (referred to as “Doi Moi”) led ultimately to the opening in 2000 of a stock exchange in Ho Chi Minh City (referred to as HCMC for short).

3.Since then the economy has more than tripled in size from $28billion in 2000 to over $100billion today

4. Goldman Sachs identified Vietnam as one of “The Next Eleven” ( N-11)—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam —The bank chose these states as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICS, the world's largest economies in the 21st century.

5.The growth was initially driven by the growth of the agricultural sector, making Vietnam the largest exporter of rice in the world.

6.However, today it is rapidly becoming a major manufacturing center. Garments are now its leading export, amounting to circa $28 billion in 2010. Footwear is another big export product for Vietnam

7.The economic growth has led to rapid growth of the population: between 2000 and 2010 the Vietnamese population grew from 79 million to 89 million.

a. On a side note: It is also reported by several market research agencies that Vietnamese people are the “happiest people in Asia”. This appears to be driven by the great turnaround in their situation -from being a war-torn nation for three decades to a now fast growing developing economy

8. Moreover, it has resulted in the emergence of a middle class of circa 12 million people

9.Vietnam is going through a period of urbanization, yet it is still largely rural: Just 28% of the population lives in cities, with the major cities being

· Can Tho

· Da Nang

· Haiphong

· Hanoi

· Ho Chi Minh City

· Nha Trang

10. Nielsen reports that these 6 cities account for 40% of the total retail sales in Vietnam

a. in some of these cities the GDP per capita is already much higher which has resulted in a real demand for luxury goods attracting the likes of Gucci, Cartier, Piaget, Chopard, Dior, YSL, Prada to set up shop in Vietnam. (Most of these luxury brands have set up shop in HCMC . Many of them located on Dhong Koi, the leading luxury high street in HCMC). Some have opened a second shop in Hanoi.

11. According to a 2011 report by Cimigo, about 31 percent of Vietnam’s population uses the internet and nearly two-thirds of them spend more than two hours daily online.

12. Vietnam’s growth has been supported by low labor costs, yet many sources believe that Vietnam’s will eventually be able to sustain its newfound prosperity through the growth of its domestic consumption. Their expectation is based on the following facts

· A high proportion of the current population is in the work force, which tends to support higher consumer spending

· Just under 40% of the population is under the age of 19 and will enter the workforce in the next 10-15 years which will drive continued growth of consumer spending

· Income levels are rising rapidly from $840 per capita at the outset of the Doi Moi reforms to $2500 per capita today. This rising affluence is driving growth in sectors as food and beverages, electrical appliances, financial services etc. This is reflected in the 15% growth of total retail sales in Vietnam in 2011

13. Vietnam’s rapid growth is not coming without some big challenges:

a. Vietnam’s growing prosperity is causing some profound social & cultural changes and challenges

i. Widening gap between the rural and urban population

ii. Tensions between the younger and older generation due to a change in outlook and values

iii. Changing role of women in society as they gain access to education and the work force

b. High inflation: overall inflation reached 18% by the end of 2011, whilst food prices doubled.

c. Corruption

d. Vietnam’s infrastructure is still underdeveloped

e. Vietnam needs to move its work force up the knowledge & skills ladder if it wants to remain competitive once labor costs rise

#Sout-east asia #The Next Eleven #N-11 #Vietnam #Economic growth

Where Good Ideas Come From: Reading Beth Comstock's post in The Huffington post today on driving innovation in the traditional healthcare industry, reminded me of this great video by Steven Johnson.It shows us that critical ingredient for stimulating innovation: connecting people with a "hunch" with other people with a "hunch". So simple, so powerful. If you are interested then also have a look at Steven's book,Where Good Ideas Come From http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0141033401

(for Beth Comstock's post go to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/beth-comstock/old-dogs-new-tricks-embra_b_1293998.html?ref=tw )

#steven johnson #beth comstock #healthcare #innovation

Car sharing disrupted Traditional Car rental. Now car makers are disrupting car sharing ….

Car Sharing companies, led by ZipCar, are disrupting the car rental market. They offer urban drivers short-term rentals of cars parked in fixed places in residential neighbourhoods. Another version of this is the peer-to-peer car sharing model, as used by RelayRides and GetAround (as a result of the emergence of this model, ZipCar is now referred to as one-way car-sharing model a sit owns its fleet and does not require the matching of someone who wants a car with someone who owns it and is willing to share it)

The success of the car sharing model is based on the fact that it filled a gap in the market for people who wanted a car for just a couple of hours.

· If you just need a car for a couple of hours, then it tends to be cheaper than hiring a car for one day from a traditional rental company

· Moreover, car sharing tends to also be more convenient. The cars are located in residential neighbourhoods. Customers don't have to head to a rental branch , fill out lots of forms (which is often still the case even if you hav epre-booked) and wait to get your car. With car sharing schemes, after reserving the car online, enable customer to use an electronic device to unlock their chosen vehicle.

However, the car sharing companies probably did not expect to see car makers want to get in on their game. But that is exactly what is happening as car makers see this business model as a way to build relationships with and make money of the wealthy young urban professionals who currently don’t own a car.

BMW has teamed up with SIXT to offer DriveNow, which says it is aiming to have 1 million customers by 2020. Daimler has launched Car2Go. Both car makers refer to these offerings as mobility services.It won’t generate big money, but if this enables them to establish relationsgips with future buyers than it might be a very worthwhile space for them to play and grow in……and that might make it quite tricky for the original players….

#car sharing #car rental #ZipCar #StreetCar #Wheelz #getAround #relayRides

An instructive and "funny" video on who is who in today's ad technology zoo

Quick overview of a hot space: The ad tech sector

The ad technology space is hot because a) brand owners are keen to realize the promise of the internet that it can put messages in front of those people who will care about their product or service b) online media platform owners are keen to monetize their audiences. Just think Facebook, Google, Twitter, YouTube, etc

As a result a great many ad technology ventures have sprung up to help these two sides realize their goals. In fact this space is now so crowded and ever-changing (as new ad tech ventures get started or go bust) that one of the US VC firms now attempts to create a map of the space to help us all keep track of who is who in the ad tech zoo. I have included a picture of it here, but I suggest you go to http://www.improvedigital.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/IMPROVE-DIGITAL_Display-Advertising-EcoSystem-Map-2012.pdf to download it properly as it also comes with a handy explanation of the different types of ad tech companies. (Or if you prefer video than take at look at the video “from Ad men to math men” next to this post. It does a good job at trying to clarify the whole space…though it may at times feel a little bit like watching a kiddies video…..

Why do you need to know about this space even if you are not a marketer? Because this is the space in which some of the big M&A deals of 2012 are expected to happen. Consolidation in this space has already started and is expected to increase:

· Adobe bought Efficient Frontier, a platform for managing ads on facebook last fall. It also bought Auditude, which has technology for placing ads in video. Why did Adobe buy these two companies? The purchase of Efficient frontier makes total sense when you remember that Adobe also owns Omniture, which collects data about web usage. So combined they are now able to help advertisers place online ads more effectively.

· Google bought Admeld for $400million, a supply side platform that enables publishers to optimize the sales of their online advertising space. Why? Most say it was purely about taking out their nearest competitor…..with some good ad yield optimization technology and important publisher relationships as a bonus

· Microsoft bought AppNexus, a demand side platform where advertisers can bid real-time through an online exchange for online advertising space from different inventory sources such as ad networks, sell side platforms, or other sources they are connected to. They offer benefits such as algorithmic buying optimisationWhy? Microsoft, is the fourth-biggest seller of display ads in the U.S. and through Microsoft Advertising Exchange

#ad tech #appnexus #admeld #ssp #dsp #LUMA map #ad exchange

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