Devin A. Downs

Trying to thrive 

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E.M. Heath's Short Content Post Two

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E.M. Heath's Short Content Post One

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E.M. Heath's Long Content Piece

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Capitalism Strikes Again!

Amazon and Ethiopia Face Tough Choices Ahead

Press Release 03/29/2019

Gainesville, Fl, Mar. 29th 2019 (Brookings Institute)

This week in economics has provided perfect examples of right and wrong ways to promote fiscal growth. Whitney Schneidman writes of Ethiopia’s fast growing economy and how its 42 year old leader Dr. Abiy Ahmed plans to make the country an African superpower. Ahmed’s main strategy is mass privatization of almost every sector except for finance. The continuation of state owned banking is expected to stunt the boom created by privatization. In the piece Schneidman writes; “continued poor services and an inability to transfer funds between banks will be a constraint on the government’s reform efforts” (Schneidman, source). Shifting the focus to a more (relatively) micro scale, Amazon has been receiving bids from counties around the US in hopes of becoming the host city for the massive firm’s second headquarters.

Nathan Jensen writes of the fiscal incentives cities are offering Amazon and how few of these deals are open to the public. Only 26 of the 238 bids are available for public view. The vast majority of these bids are being made by private entities behind closed doors with no local, state, or federal review. These entities are lobbying their city boards to create tax cuts and massive financial incentives for Amazon, which oftentimes cost more than the predicted growth in the area. New York City offered $3.5 billion dollars in subsidies to Amazon for a predicted 50,000 jobs created by the project. That would only employ 0.6% of New York’s active labor force for 4% of the city’s annual budget. These incentives are lopsided and cater to the interests of firms who stand to profit from the development instead of helping the local communities. Jensen ends the piece in saying; “The Amazon HQ2 process highlights what is both right and wrong with economic development in the United States” (Jensen, source). The “right” part he is referencing is the community involvement with the public bids. Cities like Boston and Richmond are listening to the voices of those who this project will affect. This tactic is effective as both cities have made it to the final round of consideration. These public bids offer comprehensive plans on neighborhood development instead of simply throwing Amazon billions of dollars.

Economic development cannot exist without the associated growing pains. The Ethiopian Prime Minister is doing his best for the African country. Despite his efforts the complicated web of state-run financial institutions might bottleneck any future development. Meanwhile the self-interest of large firms are turning the Amazon HQ2 decision into a ‘pissing contest’ between billionaires. Time will tell whether these plans end in a boom or a bust, at home and abroad.

Devin Downs

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Is There Hope for Democrats or the Economy?

Forecasting the Current Political and Fiscal Climate

Press Release 03/15/2019

Gainesville, Fl, Mar. 15th 2019 (Brookings Institute)

 At this moment in political history many news sources are reporting that the Democratic party is falling apart at the seams. Morley Winograd from the Brookings Institute argues the opposite. He writes that while the 40 new Democratic pundits are fighting over some issues, great things are expected of them in the future. While the sun may be rising on a new era of Democratic legislation, it is setting rapidly on the current economic cycle. Robert Shapiro writes of February’s dismal job reports. In the last month, only 20,000 new jobs created nationwide (compared to 190,000 per month average for the last 6 months). In combination with falling housing futures and a negative yield curve, several indicators warn of a recession to come.

Bruce Tuckman, famed psychologist, says there are four stages to team development: forming, storming, norming, and performing. After one Democratic speaker; “question(ed) the allegiance to the United States of American Jews who support Israel” (Shapiro, source) it is clear to see House Democrats are “storming”. Despite Tuckman’s steps, many argue quarrels within the House do not implicitly mean there will be improvement. Even with all the in-fighting there does appear to be some unity between the representatives. The recently elected Democrats unanimously voted yes on House Resolution 183 (dubbed the “Anti-Hate Resolution”). This resolution is one of many (gun control, voting reform, etc.) that have passed without issue in the last 100 days. Winograd finishes the piece by adding that; “in each of these debates there was … some “storming,” but that should not obscure the “performing” which has already begun”(Winograd, source).

Politics and economics are similar in many respects, including their highly cyclical nature. While the US economy is declining into a recession after the longest expansionary period since 2001, many are left wondering if the contraction will be as drastic. Meanwhile a new Democratic caucus rules the House, showing signs of unity and purpose. The challenges these fresh pundits will face as America enters the recession will determine the jobs and lives of thousands. Hopefully their resolve and unity can weather the trying times ahead. 

Founded in 1916, the Brookings Institute conducts research and reports on economic issues, policy changes, development, and the global economy.

Devin Downs

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Is There Hope for Democrats or the Economy?

Forecasting the Current Political and Fiscal Climate

Press Release 03/15/2019

Gainesville, Fl, Mar. 15th 2019 (Brookings Institute)

 At this moment in political history many news sources are reporting that the Democratic party is falling apart at the seams. Morley Winograd from the Brookings Institute argues the opposite. He writes that while the 40 new Democratic pundits are fighting over some issues, great things are expected of them in the future. While the sun may be rising on a new era of Democratic legislation, it is setting rapidly on the current economic cycle. Robert Shapiro writes of February’s dismal job reports. In the last month, only 20,000 new jobs created nationwide (compared to 190,000 per month average for the last 6 months). In combination with falling housing futures and a negative yield curve, several indicators warn of a recession to come.

Bruce Tuckman, famed psychologist, says there are four stages to team development: forming, storming, norming, and performing. After one Democratic speaker; “question(ed) the allegiance to the United States of American Jews who support Israel” (Shapiro, source) it is clear to see House Democrats are “storming”. Despite Tuckman’s steps, many argue quarrels within the House do not implicitly mean there will be improvement. Even with all the in-fighting there does appear to be some unity between the representatives. The recently elected Democrats unanimously voted yes on House Resolution 183 (dubbed the “Anti-Hate Resolution”). This resolution is one of many (gun control, voting reform, etc.) that have passed without issue in the last 100 days. Winograd finishes the piece by adding that; “in each of these debates there was … some “storming,” but that should not obscure the “performing” which has already begun”(Winograd, source).

Politics and economics are similar in many respects, including their highly cyclical nature. While the US economy is declining into a recession after the longest expansionary period since 2001, many are left wondering if the contraction will be as drastic. Meanwhile a new Democratic caucus rules the House, showing signs of unity and purpose. The challenges these fresh pundits will face as America enters the recession will determine the jobs and lives of thousands. Hopefully their resolve and unity can weather the trying times ahead. 

Founded in 1916, the Brookings Institute conducts research and reports on economic issues, policy changes, development, and the global economy.

Devin Downs

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Economic Growth: Blessing and a Curse?

Two Stories from Two Very Different Worlds 

Press Release 02/22/2019

Gainesville, Fl, Feb 22nd, 2019 (Brookings Institute)

Two stories from the Brookings Institute this week tackle economic growth from both perspectives, too much and too little. Njuguna Ndung’u writes of Kenya’s struggling financial sector while the government’s tax policy stifles online transactions. The mobile banking sector in Kenya was growing steadily at 12% per year in 2012-2013, that is until the government placed a 10% tax on all online transactions. Rates have been further increased to 20% against the advice of international economic advisors. Besides harming private sector growth, the increase in rates is expected to earn the government much less tax revenue than the 10% rate. On the opposite end of the development spectrum, Mark Muro writes on the US’s struggles with a changing environment and how to shift the views of voters as global warming accelerates. Recently President Trump has reversed the comprehensive environmental impact plans created by the Obama administration, angering climate change activists. Despite the political polarization of climate change, new data shows the areas least likely to vote for climate reform will be most affected by climate change in the coming century.

 The Southeast and other conservative regions have opposed converting to environmentally friendly energy sources because of increased costs and job loss in the short run. Counterintuitively, the conservative counties that voted against climate reforms will be hurt the most by global warming. For example, the majority of Florida is expected to lose 10% to 27% of income growth to climate related deaths, damage, and decreased productivity. In line with the dichotomy between how Americans vote and how they will be affected, most of Florida votes against environmental policies. Unsurprisingly, climate change is a controversial topic on Capitol Hill, thus why no comprehensive plans, changes, or even serious talks have been done about a quickly changing environment. No matter how gloomy the political deadlock may be, Muro writes that; “the current gridlock might not be as permanent as it now seems, as many of the … selected political leaders opposed to climate policy are the most exposed to the harms of climate change.” (Muro, source). It also appears Republican thoughts on climate change are starting to soften thanks to a recent public opinion poll.

 A stable government is the key to sustainable economic growth and prosperity. Kenya’s government is a perfect example of misinformed leadership that looks for a direct solution to their problems, which in most cases does more harm than good. While growth is seen as positive, the sustainable part of ‘sustainable growth’ is the hardest to achieve and is a major problem facing America today.

 Founded in 1916, the Brookings Institute conducts research and reports on economic issues, policy changes, development, and the global economy.

Devin Downs (Tumblr: gogators603)

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US, China, and the Millennial President

Can the US and China Get Along, and How Long Will Bukele Last?

Press Release 02/08/2019

Gainesville, Fl, Feb 2nd 2019 (Brookings Institute)

 As if deja vu, there has been another young leader taking power in South America and the US-China relations are worsening. In a lengthy piece on US-China relations, Brookings Institute writer Ryan Hass writes that; “It is possible…that although China seeks to avoid great power confrontation now, U.S. and Chinese interests will become more incompatible over time.” (Hass, source). Outside of Asia and the Americas, Charles T. Call writes of a new president that has been elected through the power of social media and leather jackets (in all seriousness). Nayib Bukele, an anti-establishment millennial, won El Salvador’s presidential election on Sunday with a sound 53% of the votes (Call, source). Can he stop the corruption in El Salvador? Or will he simply make empty promises as his country falls into chaos.

Candidates campaigning against corruption have been a continent-wide trend in South and Central America over the past month with Guiado becoming the interim president of Venezuela, followed by Bukele in El Salvador. Following the success of his nuanced election strategy, Bukele did not make an inspiring victory speech. Instead he went to social media to motivate the people treating the speech as an annoying formality. Call says his campaign “relied almost entirely on social media and his informal, millennial style (he appeared in blue jeans and a leather jacket for his victory speech)” (Call, source). Like many other young anti-establishment candidates in Latin Countries, Bukele vows to end corruption in his country. This “struck a nerve” in El Salvador as three former presidents have been indicted with corruption charges, one serving time in jail.

Populist candidates are becoming increasingly more popular (pun intended) in Latin-American Countries as a response to traditional two-party systems. The younger generations view these systems as corrupt and not willing to challenge the status quo, driving them to third parties. The real question here being: will these new leaders make a viable change? Outside of South and Central America, China and the US continue to battle over security, trade, and global growth. Despite differences in ideals and issues within Asia, Hass says that; “some forms of cooperation with China (and the US) may coexist comfortably alongside a more competitive approach.” After all, competition is capitalism’s ‘bread and butter’.

Founded in 1916, the Brookings Institute conducts research and reports on economic issues, policy changes, development, and the global economy.

Devin Downs

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US, China, and the Millennial President

Can the US and China Get Along, and How Long Will Bukele Last?

Press Release 02/08/2019

Gainesville, Fl, Feb 2nd 2019 (Brookings Institute)

 As if deja vu, there has been another young leader taking power in South America and the US-China relations are worsening. In a lengthy piece on US-China relations, Brookings Institute writer Ryan Hass writes that; “It is possible…that although China seeks to avoid great power confrontation now, U.S. and Chinese interests will become more incompatible over time.” (Hass, source). Outside of Asia and the Americas, Charles T. Call writes of a new president that has been elected through the power of social media and leather jackets (in all seriousness). Nayib Bukele, an anti-establishment millennial, won El Salvador’s presidential election on Sunday with a sound 53% of the votes (Call, source). Can he stop the corruption in El Salvador? Or will he simply make empty promises as his country falls into chaos.

 Candidates campaigning against corruption have been a continent-wide trend in South and Central America over the past month with Guiado becoming the interim president of Venezuela, followed by Bukele in El Salvador. Following the success of his nuanced election strategy, Bukele did not make an inspiring victory speech. Instead he went to social media to motivate the people treating the speech as an annoying formality. Call says his campaign “relied almost entirely on social media and his informal, millennial style (he appeared in blue jeans and a leather jacket for his victory speech)” (Call, source). Like many other young anti-establishment candidates in Latin Countries, Bukele vows to end corruption in his country. This “struck a nerve” in El Salvador as three former presidents have been indicted with corruption charges, one serving time in jail.

 Populist candidates are becoming increasingly more popular (pun intended) in Latin-American Countries as a response to traditional two-party systems. The younger generations view these systems as corrupt and not willing to challenge the status quo, driving them to third parties. The real question here being: will these new leaders make a viable change? Outside of South and Central America, China and the US continue to battle over security, trade, and global growth. Despite differences in ideals and issues within Asia, Hass says that; “some forms of cooperation with China (and the US) may coexist comfortably alongside a more competitive approach.” After all, competition is capitalism’s ‘bread and butter’.

Founded in 1916, the Brookings Institute conducts research and reports on economic issues, policy changes, development, and the global economy.

Devin Downs

gogators603

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Finding you(F)

A story told with Adobe Spark

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Government Failure at Home and Abroad

Is it the End of the World as we know it?

Press Release 01/25/19

GAINESVILLE, Fla, January 25, 2019 (Brookings Institute) –- The democratic process has had trying times this past week. In a Brookings Institute Podcast, Dany Bahar discusses Juan Guaido, President of the National Assembly of Venezuela, who has been sworn in as President of Venezuela. While the rest of the world has recognized Guaido as President, Maduro (current/former President) has not. (source) In another Brookings Institute article, Joseph Kane discusses how President Trump has promised a wall to his supporters, and he is trying his best to get funding passed before the 2020 election. How will he accomplish this task? Creating a government shutdown until Democrats ‘bend the knee’. (source)

As of January 12th, the current government shutdown has been the longest in the history for the US. Having started December 22nd of 2018, the halt to governmental activities has lasted over a month, and the effects are disturbingly apparent. Federal employees have been without pay for 2 weeks, causing soup kitchens to be inundated with the furloughed employees. What are our civil servants being forced to stay home for? A wall. In hopes of wrangling the same national-security minded voters for the 2020 election cycle, President Trump has created a ‘log-jam’ in Washington to get $5.7 billion dollars for his wall. Trump is threatening to divert the $5.7 billion from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is severely underfunded already. The wall would take ¾ of the USACE’s planned budget. (source) The US infrastructure has not aged well with climate and population changes, and the USACE’s job is to ensure highways and dams are maintained. Kane writes; “If President Trump were to shift the energy he has put into the wall for a truly comprehensive infrastructure plan, the shutdown would likely be over and Americans could get back to work on the projects that really matter.” (source).

Democracy has never been viewed as a perfect governmental system and this week shows us exactly why. Venezuelan rulers defy their own constitution and the United States government is shut down over a wall. Those at the top have been shown to risk the well-being of their citizens to stay in power.

Founded in 1916, the Brookings Institute conducts research and reports on economic issues, policy changes, development, and the global economy.

Devin Downs

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VANS: “Shoes Are Boring”

Converse have been around for literally a century, yet they are still able to stay on the fringe of footwear through nostalgia and recruiting obscure personalities to represent their brand. By using celebrities such as Millie Bobby Brown and Pete Davidson, they reach a younger audience without alienating the older generation that grew up wearing Chuck Taylor’s. The message remains the same, that Converse are not a shoe, but a cultural icon of the underdog, the radical, or the outcast (and a sneaker).  

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VANS: “Shoes Are Boring”

Converse have been around for literally a century, yet they are still able to stay on the fringe of footwear through nostalgia and recruiting obscure personalities to represent their brand. By using celebrities such as Millie Bobby Brown and Pete Davidson, they reach a younger audience without alienating the older generation that grew up wearing Chuck Taylor’s. The message remains the same, that Converse are not a shoe, but a cultural icon of the underdog, the radical, or the outcast (and a sneaker).